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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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On 9/21/2021 at 12:25 AM, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 89 849 19404 4.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

 

Comp

0.953x of F9 T-10 (6.76M)

0.383x of Black Widow T-10 (5.07M)

2.712x of The Suicide Squad T-10 (11.12M)

0.718x of Shang-Chi T-10 (6.32M)

 

I mean it's a good day...not sure if it was a nice day tho :(

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 89 890 19404 4.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.951x of F9 T-9 (6.75M)

0.375x of Black Widow T-9 (4.95M)

2.657x of The Suicide Squad T-9 (10.89M)

0.674x of Shang-Chi T-9 (5.94M)

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On 9/21/2021 at 12:36 AM, Dear Eric Hansen said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 476 14170 3.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp

0.758x of F9 T-17 (5.38M)

0.292x of Black Widow T-17 (3.86M)

2.144x of The Suicide Squad T-17 (8.79M)

0.933x of Shang-Chi T-17 (8.21M)

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 509 14170 3.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Comp

0.766x of F9 T-16 (5.44M)

0.296x of Black Widow T-16 (3.91M)

2.166x of The Suicide Squad T-16 (8.88M)

0.721x of Shang-Chi T-16 (6.34M)

 

Yeah, pretty poor day overall, even with good comp rises for Bond. But eh, these days happen from time to time, so you might as well roll with the punches and hope things bounce back quick.

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

136

20817

21379

562

2.63%

 

Total Showings Added Today

 1

Total Seats Added Today 

388

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

Day Four Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold Day 4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9 

96.40

 

34

583

 

0/92

13400/13983

4.17%

 

7.17m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day Four Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold Day 4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

165.98

 

31

338

 

2/28

1005/1343

25.17%

 

8.34m

NTTD (adj)

---

 

71

561

 

0/136

20668/21229

2.64%

 

---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 127/6648 [1.91% sold] [+28 tickets]

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

136

20744

21379

635

2.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

Day Five Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold Day 5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9 

99.37

 

56

639

 

0/93

13462/14101

4.53%

 

7.39m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day Five Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold Day 5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

174.86

 

24

362

 

2/28

981/1343

26.95%

 

8.79m

NTTD (adj)

---

 

72

633

 

0/136

20596/21229

2.98%

 

---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 134/6648 [2.02% sold] [+7 tickets]

 

===

 

T-x comps starting tomorrow...

Edited by Porthos
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On 9/21/2021 at 12:15 AM, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

156

24816

26078

1262

4.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

93

 

T-10 Comp         

 

   %

 

Sold T-10

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

SC

92.12

 

149

1370

 

0/101

15632/17002

8.06%

 

8.11m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-10

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

103.42

 

62

1142

 

0/79

11275/12417

9.20%

 

7.69m

BW 

40.61

 

142

2908

 

0/119

16352/19260

15.10%

 

5.61m

V2 (adj)

---

 

87

1181

 

0/141

22520/23701

4.98%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 241/7375 [3.27% sold] [17 tickets]

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

168

26691

28050

1359

4.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today

12

Total Seats Sold Today

1972

Total Seats Sold Today

97

 

T-9 Comp         

 

   %

 

Sold T-9

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

SC

91.09

 

122

1492

 

0/108

15995/17487

8.53%

 

8.02m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-9

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

104.33

 

81

1223

 

0/80

11347/12570

9.73%

 

7.76m

BW 

41.44

 

171

3079

 

0/122

16185/19264

15.98%

 

5.73m

V2 (adj)

---

 

95

1276

 

0/153

24397/25673

4.97%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 267/9194 [2.90% sold] [+26 tickets]

Edited by Porthos
Fixed some fields that weren't updated
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I don't have numbers, but Canada will over index for NTTD, so the US comps will be a bit down. If comps are suggesting $5.5M, the actuals very well be $6M. 

 

Spectre 15% of total box office came from Canada, weekend may be 13-14% as compared to usual 8-9%. Now with better Exchange rate, ratio may be 16-17% overall gross, but then there is capacity restriction to worry about as well.

 

Spectre Canada Week 1 - C$17.8M (U$13.5M) (14.16%)

 

To put this in context, Age of Ultron Week 1 was C$23.8M (U$19.1M). (8.1%)

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-15 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 25 0 2.39%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 2 0 0.49%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 47 10 31.13%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 74 10 4.60%
T-16 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 135 20 1.33%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 82 8 1.60%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 109 15 2.93%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 326 43 1.72%
T-2 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 5 7 1,032 43 7 4.17%
    Phoenix 5 10 1,816 33 9 1.82%
    Raleigh 6 7 896 33 9 3.68%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   16 24 3,744 109 25 2.91%
T-2 Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) Jacksonville 3 3 345 17 17 4.93%
    Phoenix 4 4 548 40 40 7.30%
    Raleigh 4 4 462 16 16 3.46%
  DEH (Q&A) Total   11 11 1,355 73 73 5.39%
T-9 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 67 10,185 204 8 2.00%
    Phoenix 6 48 8,848 319 28 3.61%
    Raleigh 7 34 4,390 197 11 4.49%
  Venom 2 Total   19 149 23,423 720 47 3.07%

 

Well, I was looking through showtimes for DEH and noticed that there's a second listing on Fandango for the Q&A that I hadn't previously seen.  Not sure if that had been mentioned here, but it definitely has been affecting the preview sales.  This should inflate the preview number and possibly drag down the multiplier a bit with it only being available on Thursday.  

 

DEH comps

In the Heights - .575x (575k)

Jungle Cruise - .55x (1.5m)

 

In Jacksonville, Thursday sales are 50% of the total weekend, whereas ITH was 16.5% and Jungle Cruise was 24%.  

 

Venom comps

TSS - 2.28x (9.34m)

F9 - .83x (5.92m)

SC - .738x (6.49m)

 

Avg - 7.25m

 

No Time to Die comps (without Wed showings)

F9 - .647x (4.59m)

TSS - 1.399x (5.74m)

 

Avg - 5.16m

Avg with Wed added - 6.34m

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 6 8 1,147 56 13 4.88%
    Phoenix 6 13 1,949 45 12 2.31%
    Raleigh 6 7 896 44 11 4.91%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   18 28 3,992 145 36 3.63%
  Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) Jacksonville 3 3 345 19 2 5.51%
    Phoenix 4 4 548 40 0 7.30%
    Raleigh 4 4 462 15 -1 3.25%
  DEH (Q&A) Total   11 11 1,355 74 1 5.46%
T-14 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 28 3 2.68%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 2 0 0.49%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 53 6 35.10%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 83 9 5.16%
T-15 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 140 5 1.38%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 95 13 1.85%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 119 10 3.19%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 354 28 1.87%
T-8 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 67 10,185 239 35 2.35%
    Phoenix 6 48 8,848 335 16 3.79%
    Raleigh 7 39 4,749 214 17 4.51%
  Venom 2 Total   19 154 23,782 788 68 3.31%

 

DEH comps

In the Heights - .508x (508k)

 

I went back to confirm the 1m previews from my sheet and found this in Deadline's article from that week:

 

Quote

Also, I hear a bulk of In the Heights business is coming from NYC this weekend, which is no surprise. Imax and PLF repped a third of In the Heights‘ business to date.

...

In the Heights did around $1M+ in Thursday previews, I understand.

 

The lack of PLF screens for DEH may be a big factor and pull it down from that comp even more.  

 

Venom comps

TSS - 2.3x (9.45m)

F9 - .875x (6.2m)

SC - .72x (6.38m)

 

Average - 7.35m

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .654x (4.65m)

TSS - 1.49x (6.12m)

 

Average - 5.38m

Average with Wed added - 6.65m

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2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 6 8 1,147 56 13 4.88%
    Phoenix 6 13 1,949 45 12 2.31%
    Raleigh 6 7 896 44 11 4.91%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   18 28 3,992 145 36 3.63%
  Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) Jacksonville 3 3 345 19 2 5.51%
    Phoenix 4 4 548 40 0 7.30%
    Raleigh 4 4 462 15 -1 3.25%
  DEH (Q&A) Total   11 11 1,355 74 1 5.46%
T-14 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 28 3 2.68%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 2 0 0.49%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 53 6 35.10%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 83 9 5.16%
T-15 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 140 5 1.38%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 95 13 1.85%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 119 10 3.19%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 354 28 1.87%
T-8 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 67 10,185 239 35 2.35%
    Phoenix 6 48 8,848 335 16 3.79%
    Raleigh 7 39 4,749 214 17 4.51%
  Venom 2 Total   19 154 23,782 788 68 3.31%

 

DEH comps

In the Heights - .508x (508k)

 

I went back to confirm the 1m previews from my sheet and found this in Deadline's article from that week:

 

 

The lack of PLF screens for DEH may be a big factor and pull it down from that comp even more.  

 

Venom comps

TSS - 2.3x (9.45m)

F9 - .875x (6.2m)

SC - .72x (6.38m)

 

Average - 7.35m

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .654x (4.65m)

TSS - 1.49x (6.12m)

 

Average - 5.38m

Average with Wed added - 6.65m

Good to know regarding ITH's Thursday. I'll use 1M on Thurs and 4M on Fri from now on.

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On 9/21/2021 at 4:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 190 2151 8.83%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 111 2533 4.38%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
767 63 22577 3.40% 15 119

 

AMCs sold 495
Cinemarks sold 125
Regals sold 85
Harkins sold 62

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.75M

Black Widow comp: 4.95M

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 196 2151 9.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 120 2533 4.74%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
846 79 25391 3.33% 15 135

 

Showings added: 16

Seats added: 2814

 

AMCs sold 557
Cinemarks sold 136
Regals sold 85
Harkins sold 68

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.65M

Black Widow comp: 5.10M

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On 9/21/2021 at 4:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-9 days Thursday: 491(+57)/22088(+1022)

 

Shang-Chi comp: 4.28M

Black Widow comp: 2.59M

 

T-10 days Friday: 430(+41)/34410

 

Shang-Chi comp: 12.96M

Black Widow comp: 6.31M

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday: 546(+55)/22088

 

Shang-Chi comp: 4.28M

Black Widow comp: 2.69M

 

T-9 days Friday: 478(+48)/34410

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.04M

Black Widow comp: 6.37M

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On 9/21/2021 at 4:42 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 80 1690 4.73%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 113 1610 7.02%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
372 11 16853 2.21% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 293
Cinemarks sold 18
Regals sold 60
Harkins 1

 

Wednesday:

Total 23 1429

 

Shang-Chi day 5 comp: 4.69M

Black Widow comp: 3.27M

Fast 9 comp: 6.51M

 

1.21x Venom 2 day 5 sales

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 88 1690 5.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 115 1610 7.14%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
390 18 16853 2.31% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 306
Cinemarks sold 18
Regals sold 65
Harkins 1


Wednesday: 

Total 27 1429

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.19M

Black Widow comp: 3.25M

Fast 9 comp: 6.17M

 

0.96x Venom T-15 sales

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On 9/21/2021 at 4:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-15 days Wednesday: 148(+11)/1603 in 3 theaters

 

T-16 days Thursday: 451(+42)/18906 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 5 comp: 5.70M

Black Widow comp: 3.16M

1.77x Venom T-16

 

T-17 days Friday: 499(+62)/36788(-156) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 5 comp: 21.65M

Black Widow comp: 11.78M

2.18x Venom T-17

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-14 days Wednesday: 168(+20)/1603 in 3 theaters

 

T-15 days Thursday: 475(+24)/18906 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 7.59M

Black Widow comp: 3.18M

 

T-16 days Friday: 689(+190)/36788 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 45.86M

Black Widow comp: 15.25M

 

There seems to be a huge group sale at one of the showings, which is why Friday increased so much. Looked at other showings in the same auditorium, and it was all normal. So I'm gonna assume this is real...

 

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Dear Evan Hansen
Tracking Date Showtime Date Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
9/22/2021 9/24/2021 0 6 52 541 9.61%
9/22/2021 9/24/2021 0 15 161 1439 11.19%

 

 

I'm back! Will probably focus on week of tracking to keep my own workload as light as possible.

 

These numbers are at about 63% of what ITH managed so far, including both Thursday and Friday. Because of fewer showtimes and only having PLF in one of the two theaters (Shang Chi is also keeping the largest auditorium in both), % sold is a bit greater.

 

Worth noting that half the tickets sold for Friday come from two primetime showings available from the start of ticket sales, most other screenings are pretty dead, even the other primetime venues. 9 of the 15 shows on Friday have sold five tickets or less. Also, most of the ticket sales on Thursday come from the Fathom event Q&A.

 

Other comparisons (Thursday+Friday):

 

  • 663% of In The Heights
  • 93% of Old
  • 48% of Jungle Cruise

I think Heights is the best comp - the other two are more walkup friendly, but at the moment most tracking signs seem accurate so far.

 

 

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What's this chatter about Venom 2 missing 100m domestic. That does anyway looks possible looking at presales. Its motoring along and now looks well ahead of F9 at MTC1 and will be ahead at MTC2 as well. OD PS is has started to inch ahead of Previews PS as well. Thinking its previews will be closer to 9m and friday BO 20m+.

 

Venom 2 Previews (T-8)

MTC1 - 34665/577327 584914.17 2849 shows

MTC2 - 23366/537862 322616.26 239959.03 3385 shows

 

Venom 2 Friday(T-9)

MTC1 -  25875/791501 432649.70 3785 shows

MTC2 -  21333/855705 272305.30 214982.56 5458 shows

 

Showcount is super impressive considering there is final week surge. Its ahead of Black Widow if I am not wrong when it comes to showcount. 

 

On 9/20/2021 at 9:08 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Previews(T-10)

MTC1 - 28633/527728 487995.31 2501 shows

MTC2 - 20061/536852 277621.25 3368 shows

 

On 9/20/2021 at 12:22 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 2 Friday (T-11)

MTC1 - 19791/775005 334236.52 3683 shows

MTC2 - 17503/849840 222929.81 5394 shows

 

Edited by keysersoze123
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21 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

MTC data looks more like 7-8 to me, will try a more detailed projection in a few more days of data.

MTC1 ratio is better than F9 so it will have that edge. Roughly I think it's headed for 150k and 120k, how exactly that translates depends on final ATP. Friday sales are also quite strong, par F9 at MTC2.

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Just now, Menor said:

MTC1 ratio is better than F9 so it will have that edge. Roughly I think it's headed for 150k and 120k, how exactly that translates depends on final ATP. Friday sales are also quite strong, par F9 at MTC2.

Yeah, I mean, usually a disagreement in final projection will come down to what is being assumed for final few day growth, right? I think this will beat SC in % growth since it has a smaller base, but I don’t know about beating SC final few days in raw sales, which would certainly be needed to go past 8.5 given the comparable PTA. The F9 comp will end up being a bit misleading imo, but it’s hard to say for sure ‘til we see it.

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The reason I’m waiting another few days is to see how it can do vs SC in run rate as we approach that critical final week. For the first few days after t-10 it seems to be pacing around 100% at mtc1 and more like 60% MTC2.

Edited by Legion of the Ten Crores
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42 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

The reason I’m waiting another few days is to see how it can do vs SC in run rate as we approach that critical final week. For the first few days after t-10 it seems to be pacing around 100% at mtc1 and more like 60% MTC2.

SC review drop messes with t-10 adjacent run rate comps. Should understate things unless V2 stalls. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if the lack of any review drop for Venom means its second-to-last week is just flat and that 60% holds. Final week will tell the tale. Of course, lack of reviews could also impact walkups/final week to some extent or another, I have no idea. When was the last time we had a blockbuster movie with this late of a review drop (and likely awful reviews to boot)?

 

Edit: Digging around bc I don't remember any big movies doing this in 2019...even the first Venom did it a couple days before.

Edited by Menor
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