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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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I'm still sticking with the 7-8M for Venom previews atm, which would be this if it follows the first:

 

7.5M Previews

16.9M Friday (24.4M Full Friday/3.25x Previews)

19.8M Saturday (-19%)

16M (-19%)

60.2M Weekend

 

I would expect a harsher Saturday/Sunday drop and/or more frontloading from previews since this is a sequel, so it'd probably fall around 50-55M rather than 60M

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34 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Yeah, the review drop complicates stuff but it's also the case that V2 has no review bump coming up to compensate 😆

Also not sure where you are getting 100% of SC pace from MTC1. SC did 7k in a bit over two days (Sunday night - Tuesday morning, with review drop on Monday). V2 did 6k in significantly more than two days (Monday morning-ish - Wednesday night). 

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23 minutes ago, Menor said:

Also not sure where you are getting 100% of SC pace from MTC1. SC did 7k in a bit over two days (Sunday night - Tuesday morning, with review drop on Monday). V2 did 6k in significantly more than two days (Monday morning-ish - Wednesday night). 

Got SC 10-7 at about $150k or $50k/day from @charlie Jatinder sheet.

 

Didn't realize the V2 t-10 was from 9AM, thanks for pointing that out. Makes the numbers even worse.   

 

If it runs like 80% of SC from here that wouldn't be bad per se (certainly kills my club) but I struggle to see where Keyser is getting 9 either.

Edited by Legion of the Ten Crores
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23 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Dear Evan Hansen Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 21 169 4964 3.40%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 468

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

0.311x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-2 (2.4M)

0.710x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (1.92M)

1.565x of Respect T-2 (1.02M)

 

0.173x of In the Heights' Thu+Fri Wednesday Before Release (865K)

Dear Evan Hansen Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 24 210 5306 3.96%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 342

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.263x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 (2.03M)

0.214x of In the Heights' Thu+Fri Wednesday Before Release (1.07M)

0.671x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (1.81M)

1.154x of Respect T-1 (750K)

 

Yeah momentum for this is nonexistent. In the Heights had the exact same issue, so...God I can't wait for October to roll around.

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23 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 89 890 19404 4.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.951x of F9 T-9 (6.75M)

0.375x of Black Widow T-9 (4.95M)

2.657x of The Suicide Squad T-9 (10.89M)

0.674x of Shang-Chi T-9 (5.94M)

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 89 962 19404 4.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

0.960x of F9 T-8 (6.82M)

0.383x of Black Widow T-8 (5.06M)

2.505x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (10.27M)

0.683x of Shang-Chi T-8 (6.01M)

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23 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 509 14170 3.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Comp

0.766x of F9 T-16 (5.44M)

0.296x of Black Widow T-16 (3.91M)

2.166x of The Suicide Squad T-16 (8.88M)

0.721x of Shang-Chi T-16 (6.34M)

 

Yeah, pretty poor day overall, even with good comp rises for Bond. But eh, these days happen from time to time, so you might as well roll with the punches and hope things bounce back quick.

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 532 14170 3.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp

0.758x of F9 T-15 (5.38M)

0.301x of Black Widow T-15 (3.97M)

2.136x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (8.76M)

0.642x of Shang-Chi T-15 (5.65M)

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DEH apparently carries a budget of less than $30M, so even with similar opening numbers to ITH, there's a 0% chance it ends up being the major financial loss that was. Still not good numbers since it'll feed into the "another failed stage adaptation" narrative, but I'm not sure much more could be expected for a movie that never seemed able to generate any positive press during the journey from announcement to release.

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58 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Got SC 10-7 at about $150k or $50k/day from @charlie Jatinder sheet.

 

Didn't realize the V2 t-10 was from 9AM, thanks for pointing that out. Makes the numbers even worse.   

 

If it runs like 80% of SC from here that wouldn't be bad per se (certainly kills my club) but I struggle to see where Keyser is getting 9 either.

All I would say is I dont like MCU comps. MCU has very mature fanbase that helps with its PS at this point. Venom is more niche. So I am only looking at F9 comps at this point. Its looking great. Not just with ticket sales but also with average ticket price. We will know for sure next week.

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Dear Evan Hansen (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

IMAX showings:

9:00: 0/388

2D showings: 31/235

7:00 P.M. (Live Q&A w/ Cast): 11/141

8:00 P.M.: 20/94

Total Sold: 31/623 (4.98% sold)

 

Friday:

IMAX showings: 0/776

2:05 P.M.: 0/388

8:45 P.M.: 0/388

2D showings: 52/952

12:20 P.M.: 3/238

3:40 P.M.: 6/238

7:00 P.M.: 43/238

10:20 P.M.: 0/238

Total Sold: 52/1,728 (3.01% sold)


Thurs + Fri: 83/1,901 (4.37% sold)

 

I don't really feel like doing comps for this one, because none of the ones I have feel remotely applicable with this film. In The Heights is probably the only appropriate comparison but that was released a month before I started regularly tracking films. So RIP me. 

 

Unrelated, but the idea of Old Man Platt's face expanded across a towering IMAX screen is amusing to think about.

Edited by Rorschach
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23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

All I would say is I dont like MCU comps. MCU has very mature fanbase that helps with its PS at this point. Venom is more niche. So I am only looking at F9 comps at this point. Its looking great. Not just with ticket sales but also with average ticket price. We will know for sure next week.

You seem to think the MCU is more fanheavy than it really is. This was an issue around this time in SC run iirc. SC isn't a perfect comp by any means, I think it will improve on a straight SC comp for sure though. F9 may be an issue in the other direction though.

 

Anyway, agree on bolded. Not that interested in this movie to begin with, so "wait and see" sounds like a good way to go.

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20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There's a lot of estimation done in those numbers for hours adjustments, etc. Not advisable to check pace especially for two days. 

I know there's estimated hour adjustment, but that makes it better to check pace rather than worse (though gotta make sure hours are lined up for the other movie, which I forgot about here). And it was over 3 days, so some decent averaging out of errors.    

 

Could try an average pace over like 5 or 7 days instead to smooth out even more, but then you're getting different parts of the U curve and have more stale data so it's harder to capture recent movement. 

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

136

20744

21379

635

2.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

Day Five Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold Day 5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9 

99.37

 

56

639

 

0/93

13462/14101

4.53%

 

7.39m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day Five Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold Day 5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

174.86

 

24

362

 

2/28

981/1343

26.95%

 

8.79m

NTTD (adj)

---

 

72

633

 

0/136

20596/21229

2.98%

 

---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 134/6648 [2.02% sold] [+7 tickets]

 

===

 

T-x comps starting tomorrow...

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

136

20705

21379

674

3.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

T-15 Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-15

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9 

75.06

 

71

898

 

0/91

13252/14150

6.35%

 

5.58m

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for three days longer than No Time to Die.

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-15

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

146.09

 

31

460

 

5/38

1399/1859

24.74%

 

7.34m

NTTD (adj)

---

 

39

672

 

0/136

20557/21229

3.17%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE: AQP II's tickets have been on sale for two days longer than No Time to Die.

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 144/6648 [2.17% sold] [+10 tickets]

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

168

26691

28050

1262

4.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today

12

Total Seats Sold Today

1972

Total Seats Sold Today

97

 

T-9 Comp         

 

   %

 

Sold T-9

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

SC

91.09

 

122

1492

 

0/108

15995/17487

8.53%

 

8.02m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-9

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

104.33

 

81

1223

 

0/80

11347/12570

9.73%

 

7.76m

BW 

41.44

 

171

3079

 

0/122

16185/19264

15.98%

 

5.73m

V2 (adj)

---

 

95

1276

 

0/153

24397/25673

4.97%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 267/9194 [2.90% sold] [+26 tickets]

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

168

26584

28050

1466

5.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

107

 

T-8 Comp         

 

   %

 

Sold T-8

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

SC

89.34

 

149

1641

 

0/108

15846/17487

9.38%

 

7.86m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-8

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

104.08

 

100

1323

 

0/84

11791/13114

10.09%

 

7.74m

BW 

40.54

 

204

3473

 

0/151

19486/22959

15.13%

 

5.60m

V2 (F9 adj)

---

 

101

1377

 

0/153

24296/25673

5.36%

 

---

V2 (BW adj)

---

 

107

1408

 

0/159

24911/26319

5.35%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track while V2 (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 280/9194 [3.05% sold] [+13 tickets]

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10 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Yeah momentum for this is nonexistent. In the Heights had the exact same issue, so...God I can't wait for October to roll around.

Will never not be upset In The Heights bombed. It's so fucking good and should have (still might, with recent reports) catapulted everyone in that cast into stars

Edited by SpiderByte
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On 9/22/2021 at 9:17 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 6 8 1,147 56 13 4.88%
    Phoenix 6 13 1,949 45 12 2.31%
    Raleigh 6 7 896 44 11 4.91%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   18 28 3,992 145 36 3.63%
  Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) Jacksonville 3 3 345 19 2 5.51%
    Phoenix 4 4 548 40 0 7.30%
    Raleigh 4 4 462 15 -1 3.25%
  DEH (Q&A) Total   11 11 1,355 74 1 5.46%
T-14 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 28 3 2.68%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 2 0 0.49%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 53 6 35.10%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 83 9 5.16%
T-15 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 140 5 1.38%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 95 13 1.85%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 119 10 3.19%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 354 28 1.87%
T-8 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 67 10,185 239 35 2.35%
    Phoenix 6 48 8,848 335 16 3.79%
    Raleigh 7 39 4,749 214 17 4.51%
  Venom 2 Total   19 154 23,782 788 68 3.31%

 

DEH comps

In the Heights - .508x (508k)

 

I went back to confirm the 1m previews from my sheet and found this in Deadline's article from that week:

 

 

The lack of PLF screens for DEH may be a big factor and pull it down from that comp even more.  

 

Venom comps

TSS - 2.3x (9.45m)

F9 - .875x (6.2m)

SC - .72x (6.38m)

 

Average - 7.35m

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .654x (4.65m)

TSS - 1.49x (6.12m)

 

Average - 5.38m

Average with Wed added - 6.65m

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-0 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 6 9 1,536 70 14 4.56%
    Phoenix 7 15 1,790 59 16 3.30%
    Raleigh 6 10 1,293 66 22 5.10%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   19 34 4,619 195 52 4.22%
  Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) Jacksonville 3 3 345 19 0 5.51%
    Phoenix 4 4 548 42 2 7.66%
    Raleigh 4 4 462 13 -2 2.81%
  DEH (Q&A) Total   11 11 1,355 74 0 5.46%
T-13 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 29 1 2.77%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 2 0 0.49%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 56 3 37.09%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 87 4 5.41%
T-14 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 147 7 1.45%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 106 11 2.07%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 147 28 3.95%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 400 46 2.11%
T-7 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 69 10,781 263 24 2.44%
    Phoenix 6 56 9,820 363 28 3.70%
    Raleigh 7 41 5,139 232 18 4.51%
  Venom 2 Total   19 166 25,740 858 70 3.33%

 

DEH keeps falling further behind ITH the closer we get.  Comp is down to 445k for previews.  

 

Venom 2 comps

TSS - 2.167x (8.88m)

F9 - .89x (6.31m)

SC - .73x (6.46m

Average - 7.22m

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .7x (4.98m)

TSS - 1.62x (6.64m)

Average - 5.81m

Average incl Wed - 7.07m

 

*note: one theater in Phoenix wouldn't load future charts (NTtD & Venom) on Fandango or the corp site so I just pulled forward those sales.

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7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-0 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 6 9 1,536 70 14 4.56%
    Phoenix 7 15 1,790 59 16 3.30%
    Raleigh 6 10 1,293 66 22 5.10%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   19 34 4,619 195 52 4.22%
  Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) Jacksonville 3 3 345 19 0 5.51%
    Phoenix 4 4 548 42 2 7.66%
    Raleigh 4 4 462 13 -2 2.81%
  DEH (Q&A) Total   11 11 1,355 74 0 5.46%

 

DEH keeps falling further behind ITH the closer we get.  Comp is down to 445k for previews.  

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Late Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 6 9 1,536 80 10 5.21%
    Phoenix 7 15 1,790 89 30 4.97%
    Raleigh 7 10 1,293 75 9 5.80%
  DEH Total   20 34 4,619 244 49 5.28%
  Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) Jacksonville 3 3 345 20 1 5.80%
    Phoenix 4 4 548 39 -3 7.12%
    Raleigh 4 4 462 17 4 3.68%
  DEH (Q&A) Total   11 11 1,355 76 2 5.61%

 

Same day sales are among the worst of any I've tracked.  I'd guess that means walk-ups will be pretty poor.

 

Movie T-1 Hour Morning Increase
Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) 76 74 2.70%
Dear Evan Hansen (Tot) 320 269 18.96%
Respect (Fandango) 393 319 23.20%
Dear Evan Hansen 244 195 25.13%
F9: The Fast Saga 3836 3057 25.48%
Black Widow 7362 5791 27.13%
Roadrunner 184 138 33.33%
Shang-Chi 4099 3012 36.09%
Zola (Tuesday) 104 72 44.44%
Free Guy 869 573 51.66%
Suicide Squad 1958 1267 54.54%
The Green Knight 557 355 56.90%
Jungle Cruise 1102 682 61.58%
Respect 243 150 62.00%
Snake Eyes 687 414 65.94%
The Protégé 117 70 67.14%
Boss Baby 2 456 259 76.06%
Candyman 930 517 79.88%
The Forever Purge 402 222 81.08%
Escape Room 2 454 247 83.81%
Stillwater 134 67 100.00%
Old 660 328 101.22%
Don't Breathe 2 376 171 119.88%
The Night House 93 40 132.50%
Edited by katnisscinnaplex
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 196 2151 9.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 120 2533 4.74%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
846 79 25391 3.33% 15 135

 

Showings added: 16

Seats added: 2814

 

AMCs sold 557
Cinemarks sold 136
Regals sold 85
Harkins sold 68

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.65M

Black Widow comp: 5.10M

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 198 2151 9.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 127 2637 4.82%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
906 60 25495 3.55% 15 137

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 104

 

AMCs sold 585
Cinemarks sold 162
Regals sold 87
Harkins sold 72

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.62M

Black Widow comp: 5.07M

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