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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday: 546(+55)/22088

 

Shang-Chi comp: 4.28M

Black Widow comp: 2.69M

 

T-9 days Friday: 478(+48)/34410

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.04M

Black Widow comp: 6.37M

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday: 617(+71)/22088

 

Shang-Chi comp: 4.54M

Black Widow comp: 2.87M

 

T-8 days Friday: 560(+82)/36526(+2116)

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.85M

Black Widow comp: 6.67M

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Dear Evan Hansen:

7:00 Dolby: 46/236 (+24)

8:00: 19/107 (+12)

9:00: 4/107 (New)

Total: 67/450 (+38/+107)

 

Comps:

 

63% of ITH Thurs+Fri (3.2M)

76% of Jungle Cruise (2.1M)

80% of ITH Friday (3.2M)

291% of ITH Thursday (2.9M)

 

I'll stick with 1.2-1.3M previews. It'll probably overperform in some metros and underperform in others.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 88 1690 5.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 115 1610 7.14%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
390 18 16853 2.31% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 306
Cinemarks sold 18
Regals sold 65
Harkins 1


Wednesday: 

Total 27 1429

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.19M

Black Widow comp: 3.25M

Fast 9 comp: 6.17M

 

0.96x Venom T-15 sales

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 88 1690 5.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 121 1610 7.52%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
405 15 16853 2.40% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 314
Cinemarks sold 20
Regals sold 70
Harkins 1

 

Wednesday:

Total 35 1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 6.24M

Fast 9 comp: 6.05M

 

Removed the Shang-Chi and Black Widow comps because NTTD is very obviously not behaving like them, not that I really expected them to. I added Suicide Squad because the pattern of the past few days has been very similar: a small number of tickets sold in the middling days of presales.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-14 days Wednesday: 168(+20)/1603 in 3 theaters

 

T-15 days Thursday: 475(+24)/18906 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 7.59M

Black Widow comp: 3.18M

 

T-16 days Friday: 689(+190)/36788 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 45.86M

Black Widow comp: 15.25M

 

There seems to be a huge group sale at one of the showings, which is why Friday increased so much. Looked at other showings in the same auditorium, and it was all normal. So I'm gonna assume this is real...

 

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-13 days Wednesday: 182(+14)/1603 in 3 theaters

 

T-14 days Thursday: 510(+35)/18906 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 7.30M

Black Widow comp: 3.32M

 

T-15 days Friday: 762(+73)/36788 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 43.33M

Black Widow comp: 16.23M

 

Gonna keep the SC and BW comps here because they're all I have for now

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19 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Dear Evan Hansen Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 24 210 5306 3.96%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 342

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.263x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 (2.03M)

0.214x of In the Heights' Thu+Fri Wednesday Before Release (1.07M)

0.671x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (1.81M)

1.154x of Respect T-1 (750K)

 

Yeah momentum for this is nonexistent. In the Heights had the exact same issue, so...God I can't wait for October to roll around.

Dear Evan Hansen Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 24 313 5306 5.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 103

 

Comp

0.765x of Cruella's Thu (1.07M)

0.397x of Jungle Cruise (1.07M)

0.652x of Respect (424K)

 

Yeah, I guess 1M previews sounds about right. Again, here's hoping October delivers on all that promise

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NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Start
Venom 2 (-1 week) 67/2766 (8pm) 73/2766 (8pm) 80/2766 (6pm) 88/2766 (9pm)   4:00 PM
Venom 2                   4:00 PM
Shang-Chi (-1 week) 78/1402 (4pm) 112/1402 (8pm) 116/1402 (6pm) 125/1402 (6:45pm)   6:00 PM
Shang-Chi 190/1402 (5pm) 234/1402 (5pm) 331/1402 (5pm) 511/1402 (5pm) $8.8m 6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week) 104/2766 (9am) 172/2766 (4:30pm)     217/3536 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Shazam!         129/2229 (Afternoon) 187/2229 (3:30pm) $5.9m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
Birds Of Prey 71/1844 (5pm) 84/1844 (7:30pm) 106/1844 (7:45pm) 166/1844 (5pm) $4m 6:00 PM
Black Widow 239/3584 (5pm)     326/3584 (5pm) 498/3584 (4pm) $13.2m 5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad 52/1242 (6pm) 58/1242 (6pm) 79/1242 (6pm) 153/1242 (6:15pm) $4.2m 7:00 PM

 

COMPS:

SC:  $6.19m

Joker:  $5.39m

 

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17 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

SC:  $6.19m

Joker:  $5.39m

Could you go into more detail on your comp process? I notice these don’t quite line up with a basic “ticket #/ticket # * comp movie preview.”

 

Edit: Nevermind, I was looking at the wrong numbers like an idiot.

Edited by Legion of the Ten Crores
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BO Pro

Evan Hansen 9.6M , ShangChi 13.8M

 

BO Report

Evan Hansen 8.3M, SC 14.5M

 

Predictions from the 2 sites for the weekend. Evan Hansen 1 seems to fir the tracking here. It looked like it was going over 10M a week or 2 ago but has fizzled out to just under 10M now. 

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PLF Breakdown for DEH and Shang-Chi this weekend in Orlando (excluding 4DX which DEH isn't releasing in):

 

IMAX: All 3 are splitting showtimes between the two differently. The AMC IMAX has DEH early afternoon then Shang-Chi for the rest of the day (opposite the theater's Dolby schedule) while the Regal IMAXs alternate between DEH (early afternoon and prime evening) and Shang-Chi (late afternoon and late night) (3 screens total: 1.5x for each)

Dolby: 1 full Shang-Chi, 1 Shang-Chi early afternoon then DEH for the rest of the day (2 screens total: 1.33x Shang-Chi, 0.67x DEH

XD: Both full DEH (2 screens total, 2x DEH)

RPX: Alternates between DEH (early afternoon and prime evening)  and Shang-Chi (late afternoon and late night) (1 screen total, 0.5x for each)

Total: 4.67x DEH, 3.33x Shang-Chi

 

Universal did a pretty good job convincing the chains and IMAX to push DEH. Will audiences show up? Let's find out :Venom: 

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23 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 89 962 19404 4.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

0.960x of F9 T-8 (6.82M)

0.383x of Black Widow T-8 (5.06M)

2.505x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (10.27M)

0.683x of Shang-Chi T-8 (6.01M)

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 90 1038 19461 5.33%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 57

Total Seats Sold Today: 76

 

Comp

0.984x of F9 T-7 (6.99M)

0.393x of Black Widow T-7 (5.18M)

2.501x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (10.25M)

0.674x of Shang-Chi T-7 (5.93M)

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On 9/23/2021 at 12:25 AM, Dear Eric Hansen said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 532 14170 3.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp

0.758x of F9 T-15 (5.38M)

0.301x of Black Widow T-15 (3.97M)

2.136x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (8.76M)

0.642x of Shang-Chi T-15 (5.65M)

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 565 14170 3.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Comp

0.305x of Black Widow T-14 (4.03M)

2.148x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (8.81M)

0.637x of Shang-Chi T-14 (5.6M)

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

136

20705

21379

674

3.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

T-15 Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-15

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9 

75.06

 

71

898

 

0/91

13252/14150

6.35%

 

5.58m

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for three days longer than No Time to Die.

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-15

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

146.09

 

31

460

 

5/38

1399/1859

24.74%

 

7.34m

NTTD (adj)

---

 

39

672

 

0/136

20557/21229

3.17%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE: AQP II's tickets have been on sale for two days longer than No Time to Die.

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 144/6648 [2.17% sold] [+10 tickets]

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

135

20536

21259

723

3.40%

 

Total Showings Removed Today

1

Total Seats Removed Today

120

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-14 Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9 

74.61

 

71

969

 

0/91

13181/14150

6.85%

 

5.55m

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for three days longer than No Time to Die.

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

140.27

 

54

514

 

6/63

2214/2728

18.84%

 

7.05m

NTTD (adj)

---

 

49

721

 

0/135

20388/21109

3.42%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE: AQP II's tickets have been on sale for two days longer than No Time to Die.

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 150/6648 [2.26% sold] [+6 tickets]

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

168

26584

28050

1466

5.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

107

 

T-8 Comp         

 

   %

 

Sold T-8

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

SC

89.34

 

149

1641

 

0/108

15846/17487

9.38%

 

7.86m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp           

 

   %

 

Sold T-8

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

104.08

 

100

1323

 

0/84

11791/13114

10.09%

 

7.74m

BW 

40.54

 

204

3473

 

0/151

19486/22959

15.13%

 

5.60m

V2 (F9 adj)

---

 

101

1377

 

0/153

24296/25673

5.36%

 

---

V2 (BW adj)

---

 

107

1408

 

0/159

24911/26319

5.35%

 

---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track while V2 (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 280/9194 [3.05% sold] [+13 tickets]

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

173

26553

28198

1645

5.83%

 

Total Showings Added Today

5*

Total Seats Added Today

148

Total Seats Sold Today

179

* NOTE: Includes three showings from non-reserved seating theaters.

 

T-7 Comp         

 

   %

 

Sold T-7

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW

43.13

 

151

3814

 

0/177

21748/25562

14.92%

 

5.96m

SC

92.73

 

133

1774

 

0/111

15837/17611

10.07%

 

8.16m

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp 

 

   %

 

Sold T-7

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

108.70

 

91

1414

 

0/86

11869/13283

10.09%

 

8.08m

V2 (F9 adj)

---

 

160

1537

 

0/158

24284/25821

5.95%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 289/9342 [3.09% sold] [+9 tickets]

 

=====

 

:Venom: don't need no stinkin' review bump!

Edited by Porthos
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On 9/23/2021 at 10:29 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-13 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 29 1 2.77%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 2 0 0.49%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 56 3 37.09%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 87 4 5.41%
T-14 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 147 7 1.45%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 106 11 2.07%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 147 28 3.95%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 400 46 2.11%
T-7 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 69 10,781 263 24 2.44%
    Phoenix 6 56 9,820 363 28 3.70%
    Raleigh 7 41 5,139 232 18 4.51%
  Venom 2 Total   19 166 25,740 858 70 3.33%

 

Venom 2 comps

TSS - 2.167x (8.88m)

F9 - .89x (6.31m)

SC - .73x (6.46m

Average - 7.22m

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .7x (4.98m)

TSS - 1.62x (6.64m)

Average - 5.81m

Average incl Wed - 7.07m

 

*note: one theater in Phoenix wouldn't load future charts (NTtD & Venom) on Fandango or the corp site so I just pulled forward those sales.

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-12 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 38 9 3.63%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 4 2 0.98%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 63 7 41.72%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 105 18 6.53%
T-13 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 150 3 1.48%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 111 5 2.16%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 164 17 4.40%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 425 25 2.24%
T-6 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 69 10,781 310 47 2.88%
    Phoenix 6 56 9,523 391 28 4.11%
    Raleigh 7 41 5,139 259 27 5.04%
  Venom 2 Total   19 166 25,443 960 102 3.77%

 

Venom comps

TSS - 2.26x (9.26m)

F9 - .92x (6.54m)

SC - .74x (6.50m)

 

Average - 7.44m (although it looks like F9 and SC comps are converging)

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .66x (4.71m)

TSS - 1.59x (6.53m)

 

Average - 5.62m

Average incl Wed - 7.01m

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On 9/21/2021 at 9:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-2 Dear Evan Hansen Jacksonville 5 7 1,032 43 7 4.17%
    Phoenix 5 10 1,816 33 9 1.82%
    Raleigh 6 7 896 33 9 3.68%
  Dear Evan Hansen Total   16 24 3,744 109 25 2.91%
T-2 Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A) Jacksonville 3 3 345 17 17 4.93%
    Phoenix 4 4 548 40 40 7.30%
    Raleigh 4 4 462 16 16 3.46%
  DEH (Q&A) Total   11 11 1,355 73 73 5.39%

 

DEH comps

In the Heights - .575x (575k)

Jungle Cruise - .55x (1.5m)

 

In Jacksonville, Thursday sales are 50% of the total weekend, whereas ITH was 16.5% and Jungle Cruise was 24%.  

Jacksonville weekend sales by day:

 

Movie Th Fr Sat Sun Total Comp Prediction
Dear Evan Hansen 100 152 78 40 370  
In the Heights 117 269 164 151 701 $5,189,716
Jungle Cruise 404 758 387 119 1,668 $9,298,517
Free Guy 288 425 166 153 1,032 $10,650,524

 

Friday sales really picked up since Tuesday, but overall ratios still aren't great compared to ITH.  The breakdown is actually pretty similar to Free Guy.  My biggest concern for this weekend is how much did the extra Q&A shows on Thursday affect the preview number/multiplier.

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-halloween-kills/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 9/24/21)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/30/2021 After We Fell         1,131 Fathom Events
10/1/2021 The Addams Family 2 $12,000,000 – $22,000,000   $40,000,000 – $70,000,000   3,800 United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021 The Jesus Music         n/a Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
10/1/2021 The Many Saints of Newark $7,000,000 – $16,000,000   $20,000,000 – $45,000,000   3,600 Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021 Venom: Let There Be Carnage $45,000,000 – $65,000,000 4% $105,000,000 – $145,000,000 4% 4,000 Sony Pictures / Columbia
10/8/2021 No Time to Die $56,000,000 – $85,000,000   $140,000,000 – $240,000,000     MGM
10/15/2021 Halloween Kills $35,000,000 – $55,000,000   $70,000,000 – $95,000,000     Universal Pictures
10/15/2021 The Last Duel $5,000,000 – $15,000,000   $15,000,000 – $60,000,000     Disney / 20th Century Studios
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On 9/17/2021 at 9:43 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

US showtimes sample for 9/17 weekend

 

Movie Theaters Showtimes Standard PLF
Shang-Chi 3,313 76,137 71,964 4,173
Cry Macho 3,268 42,749 42,749 0
CopShop 2,641 37,892 37,892 0
Malignant 3,013 30,168 30,168 0
Free Guy 2,734 28,992 28,953 39
Candyman 2,495 27,217 27,217 0
Jungle Cruise 1,970 19,555 19,529 26
Paw Patrol 1,837 14,416 14,416 0
Show Me the Father 1,046 11,139 11,139 0
Don't Breathe 2 899 6,654 6,654 0
The Card Counter 546 5,595 5,595 0
Eyes of Tammy Faye 394 5,545 5,545 0
Blue Bayou 444 5,439 5,439 0

 

 

Futures previews showtimes

 

Venom 2 - 13,768

No Time to Die - 7,191

Addams Family - 3.759

US showtimes sample for 9/24 weekend

 

Movie Theaters Showtimes Standard PLF
Shang-Chi 3,218 62,134 60,172 1,962
Dear Evan Hansen 2,985 50,762 49,090 1,672
Cry Macho 3,226 32,316 32,316 0
Free Guy 2,681 28,101 28,070 31
CopShop 2,641 25,982 25,982 0
Candyman 2,270 23,833 23,833 0
Jungle Cruise 1,891 18,292 18,292 0
Malignant 2,140 17,791 17,791 0
Eyes of Tammy Faye 1,226 13,263 13,263 0
Paw Patrol 1,592 11,579 11,579 0
Courageous 967 11,304 11,304 0
Card Counter 681 5,833 5,833 0
Don't Breathe 2 641 4,828 4,828 0

 

Futures previews show counts

 

Venom 2 - 15,596

Addams Family - 6,074

No Time to Die - 10,513

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