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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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3 hours ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

I know we’ve got a lot of big movies in the pipe right now, but BOP does have Many Saints doing like 10M and Addams like 15 for the upcoming weekend, which are bigger than anything the past few weeks. If anybody is planning to track them, a quick glance in the next 35 hours or so would be appreciated.

 

FYI - Addams Family has a $4 TMobile ticket deal on Tuesday...

 

And even with that, I think my fam is going to Venom 2 for full price...sometimes, cheap tickets still can't motivate when you have options in the market (although maybe we'll try to see both - my area finally peaked again last week, so another week should have us starting to get to the point I'll see movies in theaters again after skipping September:)...

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Many Saints is likely going to be extremely frontloaded given the devoted fan base of the show will no doubt make up most of the ticket sales. $10M for it next weekend sounds about right, even if it's sure to fall off quickly after that due to frontloading + being available to watch at home at the same time.

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12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

NTTD T-12 Nationwide

WED - $0.13M Approx
THU - $1.05M

FRI - $0.8M

SAT - $0.6M

SUN & Rest - $0.3M

 

Total - $2.9M Approx

 

Previews including WED are par Venom at same time, which is really encouraging, thanks to Canada, US alone is around 85%. Looks good for $7M previews incl WED just looking at numbers, but pace isn't good because first 24 hours it was ahead 40% Venom in USA, while at T-12 days its lagging behind. 

 

Not much clarity but I guess $6-7M previews (incl WED) leading to $50-60M.

50m would be disappointing 

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4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

50m would be disappointing 

More likely to be in higher end, but as I said, next week will give more clarity.

 

Besides , Spectre opened $80M coming off strong Skyfall. Now with further aged fanbase, probably $60-70M was what it was gonna do in normal times, so not surprised at all. 

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I'm sure it has been mentioned, but the 163 minute run time on No Time To Die coupled with Venom, Many Saints of Newark and Addams Family coming out the week before and along with labor issues is going to hinder the amount of shows that a theater can play.  

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29 minutes ago, John Marston said:

50m would be disappointing 

 

But not unexpected with the older age turnout issues...

 

I've been touting Venom over Bond for a month b/c I don't believe old folks will turn out like they have for past Bond...for me, $50M+ would be good for Bond OW...for others, I think they'd consider it a catastrophe, but domestic market is what it is til it proves otherwise, and Cry Macho didn't give any signal so far that the market is changing for that demo yet...

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On 9/24/2021 at 12:41 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-12 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 38 9 3.63%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 4 2 0.98%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 63 7 41.72%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 105 18 6.53%
T-13 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 150 3 1.48%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 111 5 2.16%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 164 17 4.40%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 425 25 2.24%
T-6 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 69 10,781 310 47 2.88%
    Phoenix 6 56 9,523 391 28 4.11%
    Raleigh 7 41 5,139 259 27 5.04%
  Venom 2 Total   19 166 25,443 960 102 3.77%

 

Venom comps

TSS - 2.26x (9.26m)

F9 - .92x (6.54m)

SC - .74x (6.50m)

 

Average - 7.44m (although it looks like F9 and SC comps are converging)

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .66x (4.71m)

TSS - 1.59x (6.53m)

 

Average - 5.62m

Average incl Wed - 7.01m

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales* % Sold
T-10 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 48 10 4.59%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 7 3 1.71%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 67 4 44.37%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 122 17 7.59%
T-11 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 163 13 1.61%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 125 14 2.44%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 182 18 4.89%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 470 45 2.48%
T-4 Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 69 10,781 399 89 3.70%
    Phoenix 6 57 9,649 548 157 5.68%
    Raleigh 7 41 5,139 366 107 7.12%
  Venom 2 Total   19 167 25,569 1,313 353 5.14%

*New sales are since Friday morning

 

Venom comps

TSS - 2.56x (10.49m)

F9 - 1.058x (7.51m)

SC - .84x (7.39m)

Average - 8.47m

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .631x (4.48m)

TSS - 1.6x (6.55m)

Average - 5.52m

Average incl Wed - 6.95m

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I think the No Time to Die premiere and review embargo lift will give it a massive boost. If the movie's reviews are as good as I think they're going to be, it will start selling really well next week 

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5 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

I think the No Time to Die premiere and review embargo lift will give it a massive boost. If the movie's reviews are as good as I think they're going to be, it will start selling really well next week 

 

I agree. NTTD is a hotly anticipated film but it's not a comic book movie. There will be a ton of walk-up business.

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5 minutes ago, Burgess said:

 

I agree. NTTD is a hotly anticipated film but it's not a comic book movie. There will be a ton of walk-up business.

 

Spectre was 5.25M in previews for a weekend of 70.4M so a 13.4 multiplier. 200M total. 

 

Skyfall was 2.2M in previews for a weekend of 90.6M  over 40 multipler.  304M total

 

Obviously cant replicate the Skyfall ratio. Thing have changed a lot since then with preview numbers. But it shows that Bond films dont need a crazy preview number and even long films like Spectre (148min) with middling reviews still have decent legs. 

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Venom 2:

4:00 Dolby: 10/236 (+4)

4:30 3D: 0/67 (-)

5:00: 6/107 (+5)

6:00 IMAX: 2/372 (+2)

6:30 Dolby: 30/236 (+9)

7:00 3D: 7/67 (+2)

7:30: 11/107 (+9)

8:30 IMAX: 10/372 (+6)

9:00 Dolby: 20/236 (+5)

Total: 94/1,800 (+42)

 

Comps:

 

27% of Black Widow the day before (3.6M)

41% of Shang-Chi three days out (3.6M)

72% of F9 three days out (5M)

129% of AQP2 two days out (6.2M)

165% of The Suicide Squad five days out (6.8M)


Alright, I'm sounding the alarm again: this needs to pick up the pace soonIt's lost significant ground against Shang-Chi, and the F9 comp isn't looking hot either. These sales are concerning enough for me to downgrade my range to 5.5-6.5M.

 

Titane:

6:00: 3/40

8:40: 8/40

Total: 11/80

 

65% of The Green Knight five days out (490k)

138% of Pig two days out (1.4M weekend)

 

Think this might be a sleeper overperformer this weekend. Don't doubt the French on this one.

 

Many Saints of Newark (Friday):

3:00: 3/70

7:45: 6/107

Total: 9/177

 

Comps (using full Fridays instead of previews):

 

16% of The Suicide Squad five days out (2M)

50% of Old five days out (3.5M)

75% of Snake Eyes five days out (4.1M)

 

9-11M sounds right for now; I'm not sure what some other good comps would be this far out. Max is really going to fuck this over.

 

Addams Family 2:

4:00: 2/107

6:45: 2/107

9:15: 0/107

Total: 4/321

 

I'll do comps on Tuesday
 

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18 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Venom is truly screwed if you guys are this low on it. I think it barely does 5M previews right now for a low 40M OW. Disaster.

I would love this for my club but it’s completely impossible. You are clearly not paying attention to the right data. Even if it decelerates bad on the final few days and does like 75% of SC’s rate (which is pretty unlikely) we’d still be looking at 6.5M

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1 hour ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Venom is truly screwed if you guys are this low on it. I think it barely does 5M previews right now for a low 40M OW. Disaster.

You’re just a ray of sunshine aren’t you😂

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1 hour ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Venom is truly screwed if you guys are this low on it. I think it barely does 5M previews right now for a low 40M OW. Disaster.

 

Previews look like its gone from 7 into the 8.5 now so your trolling has also gone down 1.5 points accordingly.

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16 hours ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

I know we’ve got a lot of big movies in the pipe right now, but BOP does have Many Saints doing like 10M and Addams like 15 for the upcoming weekend, which are bigger than anything the past few weeks. If anybody is planning to track them, a quick glance in the next 35 hours or so would be appreciated.

Many Saints MTC2

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 1150

Tickets Sold: 3660/121370

 

This seems under 10 million from this data but I assume other chains would be stronger, especially MTC1.

 

Addams Family MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1008

Tickets Sold: 1759/115922

 

Friday

Showtimes: 1661

Tickets Sold: 4346/206582

 

Don't have great comps. I estimate it around 30% of JC on Thursday at the same point and 40% on the Friday, perhaps slightly higher. 15 million seems quite possible but idk how much it's overindexing in MTC2. 

 

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On 9/16/2021 at 11:56 PM, Lion Roar said:

8 days later, Venom has now sold 91 tickets total out of 1536 seats:

  • 47 out of 1044 IMAX seats
  • 44 out of 522 Regular 

Haven't started picking up yet at my theater, let's see how the next two weeks go. 

T-4 update:

 

Venom has now sold 180 tickets total out of 1536 seats, 11.72%. Almost doubled in about 10 days.

- 113 out of 1044 IMAX

- 67 out of 522 regular

 

This is still behind NTTD sales at my theater even without the Wednesday sneak peak.  Not sure why this is doing so poorly in my theater compared to the national data(Or why Bond is doing so well here). I'm curious to see just much this is underperforming. 

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