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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-10 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 162 -1 1.60%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 124 -1 2.42%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 201 19 5.40%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 487 17 2.57%
T-3 Addams Family 2 Jacksonville 6 18 3,102 15 15 0.48%
    Phoenix 5 11 1,850 15 15 0.81%
    Raleigh 7 19 1,681 9 9 0.54%
  Addams Family 2 Total   18 48 6,633 39 39 0.59%
  Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 69 10,781 497 98 4.61%
    Phoenix 6 57 9,649 641 93 6.64%
    Raleigh 7 41 5,139 458 92 8.91%
  Venom 2 Total   19 167 25,569 1,596 283 6.24%
T-4 Many Saints Jacksonville 7 28 3,375 60 60 1.78%
    Phoenix 6 16 2,098 64 64 3.05%
    Raleigh 6 23 2,949 73 73 2.48%
  Many Saints Total   19 67 8,422 197 197 2.34%
T-9 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 54 6 5.16%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 8 1 1.95%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 77 10 50.99%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 139 17 8.65%

 

Added the other new releases for this week.  

 

Addams Family 2 T-3 comps

Boss Baby 2 - .39x (511k)

Peter Rabbit 2 - .45x (403k)

 

Many Saints T-4 comps (Friday)

Cry Macho - 6.35x (10.17m)

Candyman - 1.55x (4.65m)

 

Venom 2 T-3 comps

TSS - 2.59x (10.61m)

F9 - 1.1x (7.826m)

SC - .88x (7.73m)

 

Average - 8.72m

 

No Time to Die T-10 comps

F9 - .6x (4.28m)

TSS - 1.61x (6.61m)

 

Average - 5.45m

Average incl Wed - 7m

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-2 Addams Family 2 Jacksonville 6 18 3,102 15 0 0.48%
    Phoenix 6 13 1,959 23 8 1.17%
    Raleigh 7 19 1,681 13 4 0.77%
  Addams Family 2 Total   19 50 6,742 51 12 0.76%
  Venom 2 Jacksonville 6 72 11,075 642 145 5.80%
    Phoenix 7 62 10,037 796 155 7.93%
    Raleigh 7 47 5,520 590 132 10.69%
  Venom 2 Total   20 181 26,632 2,028 432 7.61%
T-3 Many Saints Jacksonville 7 28 3,375 77 17 2.28%
    Phoenix 6 18 2,251 74 10 3.29%
    Raleigh 7 27 3,328 93 20 2.79%
  Many Saints Total   20 73 8,954 244 47 2.73%
T-8 No Time to Die (Wed) Jacksonville 3 3 1,046 66 12 6.31%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 12 4 2.93%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 78 1 51.66%
  No Time to Die (Wed) Total   5 5 1,607 156 17 9.71%
T-9 No Time to Die Jacksonville 7 59 10,119 174 12 1.72%
    Phoenix 6 31 5,132 137 13 2.67%
    Raleigh 7 30 3,725 231 30 6.20%
  No Time to Die Total   20 120 18,976 542 55 2.86%

 

Venom is closing in on Shang-Chi total preview sales here; it's passed SC in Phoenix and Jacksonville but trailing a good bit in Raleigh.

 

Addams Family 2 T-3 comps

Boss Baby 2 - .35x (461k)

Peter Rabbit 2 - .49x (441k)

 

Many Saints T-4 comps (Friday)

Cry Macho - 5.55x (8.87m)

Candyman - 1.54x (4.63m)

 

Venom 2 T-3 comps

TSS - 2.78x (11.39m)

F9 - 1.17x (8.32m)

SC - .97x (8.52m)

 

Average - 9.41m

 

No Time to Die T-10 comps

F9 - .63x (4.45m)

TSS - 1.72x (7.03m)

 

Average - 5.74m

Average incl Wed - 7.4m

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I'm still on vacation but the next weekends look too interesting to say nothing ;). I'm way more interested in NTTD than Venom 2 so at least for today I picked NTTD.

NTTD counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, October 7 (9 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 120 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24):
95 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 18 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
20 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 398 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 409 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.064.

The first time I counted NTTD was on September 17 (but forget to report) and back then it had in 7 theaters 110 sold tickets (doing best in the AMC in LA with 64 sold tickets and pretty poor in NY with only 7 sold tickets). Overall the sales jumped 967% till today = in 11 days.
Comps (by the way I agree that it won't need the same presales as e.g. BW or SC because of the walk-ups): TSS had on Monday (1 day earlier) 838 sold tickets for its previews on Thursday
and AQP II had also 9 days before its previews 402 sold tickets.
That's a pretty wide range so far: 5.2M – 12.7M (but that still makes sense because AQP II's sales heftily increased over the last week whereas TSS had pretty meager jumps).
Overall it's looking way better now
for NTTD.

NTTD counted today at 10am EST for Friday, October 8 (10 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 100 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24):
95 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 18 (11 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
21 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 377 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 326 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 944.

 

This is my first count of the Friday sales.
Comps: TSS had on Friday (so NTTD has 3 days left to increase the margin) 714 sold tickets for Friday,

F9 had on Monday of its release week (means NTTD has 6 days left to come closer or overtake) 1.656 sold tickets for Friday (my vague guess is that it could be pretty much on par next Monday)
and The Conjuring 3 had also 10 days before its release Friday 266 sold tickets.

 

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The Addams Family 2
Tracking Date Showtime Date Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
9/28/2021 9/30/2021 0 6 18 474 3.80%
9/28/2021 10/1/2021 0 9 90 697 12.91%
             
             
The Many Saints of Newark
Tracking Date Showtime Date Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
9/28/2021 10/1/2021 0 8 198 624 31.73%
             
             
Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Tracking Date Showtime Date Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
9/28/2021 9/30/2021 0 18 477 2310 20.65%
9/28/2021 10/1/2021 0 8 407 3649 11.15%

 

 

Addams is about at 71% of where Peter Rabbit was, but I think any summer movie would be a bad comp for this, now that schools are back and families won't see movies during the day. It's worth noting the Friday evening shows (on both theaters one screen is on sale so far) comprise most of the sales on Friday (87% of total Friday sales), which suggests a stronger weekend.

 

Saints of Newark could very well be overindexing here, but the % sold is truly a sight. I think it absolutely gains a screen in each place this weekend. It could very well be frontloaded, but these numbers seem to hint that it'll hit double digits unless this market is a BIG anomaly.

 

I don't have a solid comp for Venom, but these numbers seem decent. A little under half of the Thursday tickets were sold for XD screenings, compared to 58% for Friday. 

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21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

There are multiple factors in plays.  Retarded decision on part of AT&T to blindly put everything on free in HBO Max irrespective of theater status. 2nd is this is not a sequel but a "soft reboot". Previous movie did have Will Smith. I dont think any of the actors in this movie had the star power. Plus trailers for previous movie had Batman, Joker etc. Did this movie had any of the big names in DCEU to evoke interest?

 

But we all know that a sequel always pay the price for a their poor received predecessor. The fact that Venom 2 is looking to buck that trend during pandemic is already an impressive feat. Agreed on the HBO max approach, worth a business case study for the wrong reason

16 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

I think audiences liked Venom 1 way more than the first Suicide Squad.

 

Plus TSS was released for free on HBO.

To me Venom and SS are equally bad but Venom didn't anger me like the way of SS did, it was just dumb fun.

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3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

But we all know that a sequel always pay the price for a their poor received predecessor. The fact that Venom 2 is looking to buck that trend during pandemic is already an impressive feat. Agreed on the HBO max approach, worth a business case study for the wrong reason

To me Venom and SS are equally bad but Venom didn't anger me like the way of SS did, it was just dumb fun.

 

But see, dumb fun is not a negative for a sequel - it used to be what we called comedy movies like The Hangover..."this was such dumb fun"...

 

Anger is a feeling - and that explains part of TSS's reception, but having seen it (and it's 1st version), there's much more to the poor sequel reception...

 

I have always disagreed that Venom 1 was badly received by audiences.  I doubt its demo posts much to Rotten Tomatoes (have we ever found out the diversity of reviewers there?  We know kids don't post, but who else doesn't or conversely, who else over posts for their demo?) - I think most folks who saw Venom said "that was funny Halloween monster madness"...or as you put it "that was some dumb fun" with a smile on their faces...and that all said, OW did have a B+ Cinescore and an 89% on viewer RT...

 

It's why I always insisted Venom should stick to a fall date - no one cares about Halloween and fall monster vibes in March or at Christmas...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Not to stray too far off-topic, but having seen Venom yesterday, the thing that makes this different and more appealing to Suicide Squad is that Venom has more...sincerity to it? It's not only way more exciting and invigorating, but Venom feels like a distinct relic of 2003, which gives it a quirky, oddly charming and nostalgic experience that makes it stand out from the rest of the current superhero climate. The film's a mess, but the Daredevil-style awkward early 2000s blockbuster aesthetic has an audience, ironic or otherwise, especially amongst the 20something Film Twitter vulgar auteurists and shitposters who grew up with these movies (I'm one of them). The movie has the integrity to keep that style and have fun with it. It makes perfect sense why people would be turned off by it, but it makes even more sense why there would be people who find it endearing.

 

Suicide Squad meanwhile just feels like a bunch of old farts trying to cash in on Hot Topic like 5 years too late, while also trying to make a movie that's all demented and serious, and it just leads to a bunch of boring mush that appeals to nobody but the most manipulatable Hot Topic teens. And even then, the Harley Quinn hype amongst that demo died down a lot in five years. Teens' tastes change pretty rapidly.

 

I don't think Venom's considered a classic, but I do think it garnered some appreciation for how weird it is, and the sequel promises a lot of that same awkward charm, so it makes perfect sense why the sequel seems to not be paying the price as it were.

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Venom: Let There Be Carnage

North Shore Cinema (2 days before previews, 3 before release)

Mequon, WI

9/30/21

 

4:00 - 15/301

5:30 - 10/67

6:00 - 6/116

7:00 - 111/301

9:30 - 0/67

 

100% of Shang-Chi and The Legend of Ten Rings ($75.8M OW)

14.5% ahead of Venom ($91.9M)

95.9% of Ant-Man and The Wasp ($72.7M)

67.2% of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($78.8M)

 

As I predicted, Venom showed stronger sales opening week than when tickets first came as the audience is less fanboy and more casuals. Like Shang-Chi, the pace it has keep to past comparisons is impressive, and I’m thinking around the similar range of $70m-$75m, with a shot at $80m judging by sales.

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BIG jump for Venom in Canada the past 24 hours. Was squeaking past NTTD before, now it is VERY comfortably ahead. 
 

NTTD also saw some solid sales, but BAH GAWD Venom is looking very good. I’m not 100% sold on 70M yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised. I’d also be shocked if this opened below 60-65 at this point.

:ohmygod:
 

As I mentioned before (maybe in another thread?) one issue in Canada is screen space; given limited capacity here, some markets are splitting Venom/NTTD screens. My theatre is one of those; we lost out on Venom, the other theatre is playing it, and we are getting NTTD. For that reason, I’m not going to be able to use my local comps for presales until the night of release, when I can compare final sales at the other theatres to my comps.

 

Edited by DAJK
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20 minutes ago, DAJK said:

BIG jump for Venom in Canada the past 24 hours. Was squeaking past NTTD before, now it is VERY comfortably ahead. 
 

NTTD also saw some solid sales, but BAH GAWD Venom is looking very good. I’m not 100% sold on 70M yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised. I’d also be shocked if this opened below 60-65 at this point.

:ohmygod:
 

As I mentioned before (maybe in another thread?) one issue in Canada is screen space; given limited capacity here, some markets are splitting Venom/NTTD screens. My theatre is one of those; we lost out on Venom, the other theatre is playing it, and we are getting NTTD. For that reason, I’m not going to be able to use my local comps for presales until the night of release, when I can compare final sales at the other theatres to my comps.

 

I’m also curious about NTTD, previews seem kind of soft at my theater but I think it’ll ramp up next week but I still don’t feel as certain that it’s going over $70m. There’s a good chance Venom 2 outopens it.

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5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I’m also curious about NTTD, previews seem kind of soft at my theater but I think it’ll ramp up next week but I still don’t feel as certain that it’s going over $70m. There’s a good chance Venom 2 outopens it.

 

It took a month, and a few weeks of presales, but I'm proud to have finally convinced someone...now I'm not the only one that will be wildly wrong or right in 2 weeks:)...

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It took a month, and a few weeks of presales, but I'm proud to have finally convinced someone...now I'm not the only one that will be wildly wrong or right in 2 weeks:)...

 

Of course by ticket sales for the upcoming weekend Venom will outsell it. Bond films are not preview heavy at all and will be walk up strong and hold much better than comic book films. Spectre barely did over 5m on previews for a 70M opening. Venom 2 might do 10M previews and NTTD will got get anywhere near that. 

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3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Of course by ticket sales for the upcoming weekend Venom will outsell it. Bond films are not preview heavy at all and will be walk up strong and hold much better than comic book films. Spectre barely did over 5m on previews for a 70M opening. Venom 2 might do 10M previews and NTTD will got get anywhere near that. 

 

And thus, I still have convinced only one person for the DOM OWs of both:)...I'm not watching just presales for my thoughts, but I won't go into them again b/c broken records become broken records:)...

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3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

And thus, I still have convinced only one person for the DOM OWs of both:)...I'm not watching just presales for my thoughts, but I won't go into them again b/c broken records become broken records:)...

 

I think OW will be similar with perhaps Venom 2 slightly in front but they will do it in different ways. Bond will hold a lot better as the weeks go on. 

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5 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I think OW will be similar with perhaps Venom 2 slightly in front but they will do it in different ways. Bond will hold a lot better as the weeks go on. 

 

So, I do actually have 2 people:)...I'm not saying how they'll hold (part of that will be quality).  I've only been concerned with how they open - Box Office Pro tracking has Bond out-opening Venom by quite a bit (about $15-16M)  if you take the midpoint of the trackings...

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 332 2151 15.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 196 2637 7.43%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 3 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1521 524 25599 5.94% 15 139

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 104

 

AMCs sold 943
Cinemarks sold 292
Regals sold 158
Harkins sold 128

 

Shang-Chi comp: 7.48M

Black Widow comp: 6.44M

 

Shang-Chi's sales the past 3 days at this point were 452, so a good amount ahead for Venom

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 423 2151 19.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 236 2637 8.95%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1950 429 26448 7.37% 15 152

 

Showings added: 13

Seats added: 849

 

AMCs sold 1176
Cinemarks sold 393
Regals sold 211
Harkins sold 170

 

Shang-Chi comp: 8.31M

Black Widow comp: 7.35M

 

Absolutely exploding... Even if the pace stays flat, it'll pass SC tomorrow.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-3 days Thursday: 1049(+389)/22088 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 5.12M

Black Widow comp: 3.66M

 

T-4 days Friday: 1053(+450)/47808 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 15.05M

Black Widow comp: 8.42M

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday: 1413(+364)/23176(+1088) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 5.86M

Black Widow comp: 4.25M

 

T-3 days Friday: 1400(+347)/49787(+1979) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 16.10M

Black Widow comp: 9.40M

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 103 1690 6.09%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 128 1610 7.95%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 3 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
508 73 16853 3.01% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 380
Cinemarks sold 34
Regals sold 90
Harkins 4

 

Wednesday:

Total 91 1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 6.59M

Fast 9 comp: 5.96M

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 108 1690 6.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 142 1610 8.82%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
546 38 16853 3.24% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 413
Cinemarks sold 37
Regals sold 92
Harkins 4

 

Wednesday:

Total 115 1429

 

Fast 9 comp: 6.12M

 

No Suicide Squad comp today

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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, I do actually have 2 people:)...I'm not saying how they'll hold (part of that will be quality).  I've only been concerned with how they open - Box Office Pro tracking has Bond out-opening Venom by quite a bit (about $15-16M)  if you take the midpoint of the trackings...

You have 3 I suppose. I have been thinking Venom OW over Bond though I guess I didn't explicitly say it despite being an early optimist on Venom. But Bond is too unpredictable for me with it being way less preview loaded than most big franchises. Hard to pinpoint an exact number. 

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I will post numbers tomorrow but Venom is looking solid for Thursday. It really picks up around 6 with the 4-5 showings being almost nonfactors. I haven't been paying attention much but 60 seems viable?

 

Also, Titane is doing well at the AMC. I'm not sure about the overall theater count but could possibly make a million for the weekend?

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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

You have 3 I suppose. I have been thinking Venom OW over Bond though I guess I didn't explicitly say it despite being an early optimist on Venom. But Bond is too unpredictable for me with it being way less preview loaded than most big franchises. Hard to pinpoint an exact number. 

Bond PS ahead of F9 at MTC1 and pace is picking up big time. Plus based on early reactions, reviews are going to be strong with strong international debut this week. There is no way it disappoints. I am predicting Bond to out open Venom 2 and that is despite Venom 2 out performing expectations big time. 

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