The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

On 9/28/2021 at 1:37 AM, Eric Soprano said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	751	14170	5.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 87

 

Comp

0.843x of F9 T-10 (5.98M)

0.339x of Black Widow T-10 (4.48M)

2.399x of The Suicide Squad T-10 (9.84M)

0.635x of Shang-Chi T-10 (5.59M)

 

So one theater in particular boosted today's sales...but a gain is a gain nonetheless. October's gonna be a fun month y'all

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	825	14653	5.63%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 7

Total Seats Added Today: 483

Total Seats Sold Today: 74

 

Comp

0.881x of F9 T-9 (6.26M)

0.348x of Black Widow T-9 (4.59M)

2.463x of The Suicide Squad T-9 (10.1M)

0.625x of Shang-Chi T-9 (5.5M)

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

1st I was way off this morning looking at PS start for the day but overall its another great day for Venom 2. Thinking its set for 9m previews, 25m true friday at this point.

I am thinking more like 9.5-10M previews and 20.5-22M True Friday.

Edited September 29, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Ronin46]

So whats a good guess for now?

 

Venom 70 to 75M 

Adam 2  14 to 15M

Sopranos 6 to 8M

 

[charlie Jatinder]

To be bit clear on how admits behaved

SC

T-4: 67K & 35K

T-3: 79K & 43K (+12K & 8K)

T-2: 90K & 50K (+11K & 7K)

T-1: 107K & 63K (+17K & 13K)

Final: 169K & 121K (+62K & 59K)


Venom 2

T-4: 52K & 39K (+8K & 6K)

T-3: 63K & 49K (+11K & 10K)
T-2: 79k & 61k (+17k & 12K)
T-1: 102K & 78K (+23K & 17K)
Final: 185K & 157K (+83K & 79K)
 

SC ATP from T-2 days to final went from $16.22 & $13.63 to $15.3 & $13.05. V2 is currently $16.67 & $13.47. Not much Matinee impact there I see. 

 

Edit 1: So I recalled there was something of hurricane that deflated SC sales on T-2 day. 

Edited September 29, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

My nearest theater (Cinemark) is only showing 7 films: Venom, Addams Family, Sopranos, Evan Hansen, ShangChi, Candyman (???), Free Guy (????). I’m very annoyed by last 2. Wish we could have gotten something like Tammy Faye. Titane seems AMC only. On Friday Venom has 16 showtimes beginning at 12. It’s in XD theater and at least 2 additional auditoriums. 

[Porthos]

On 9/27/2021 at 11:59 PM, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	135	20309	21259	950	4.47%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	43
Total Seats Sold Today	74

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	140.69		48	671		4/74	2458/3129	21.44%		7.07m
F9	80.56		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		5.99m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		74	944		0/135	20165/21109	4.47%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		71	920		0/114	17289/18209	5.05%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 31/1644 [1.86% sold] | 3.26% of all tickets sold

Regal:   191/6648 [2.87% sold] [+15 tickets]

 

===

 

Picking up a bit the last couple of days. 👍

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	142	21077	22115	1038	4.69%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	856
Total Seats Sold Today	88

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	137.33		79	750		3/86	2823/3573	20.99%		6.90m
F9	81.77		81	1223		0/80	11347/12570	9.73%		6.08m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		86	1030		0/142	20935/21965	4.69%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		80	1000		0/121	18065/19065	5.25%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 39/1644 [2.34% sold] | 3.76% of all tickets sold

Regal:   214/7504 [2.85% sold] [+23 tickets]

 

===

 

Don't think there was nearly enough time for social media reactions to have made too much of a difference locally (they dropped at 4pm my time).  Be interesting to see if there's any real movement tomorrow.

Edited October 13, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

My nearest theater (Cinemark) is only showing 7 films: Venom, Addams Family, Sopranos, Evan Hansen, ShangChi, Candyman (???), Free Guy (????). I’m very annoyed by last 2. Wish we could have gotten something like Tammy Faye. Titane seems AMC only. On Friday Venom has 16 showtimes beginning at 12. It’s in XD theater and at least 2 additional auditoriums. 

Seems pretty fair to me. FG and Candy both had over 1k PTA last wknd, so they should be the holdovers aside from SC and DEH that keep a decent number of locs.

 

In contrast Tammy had just 464 PTA after a fairly aggressive expansion. Doubt many places would see that and decide to add it in wknd 3 with some 100M of openers.

[Porthos]

On 9/28/2021 at 12:00 AM, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	216	28173	31210	3037	9.73%

 

Total Showings Added Today	33
Total Seats Added Today	2448
Total Seats Sold Today	576

 

T-3 Comp         

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	59.62		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		8.24m
SC	110.80		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		9.75m

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	135.87		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		10.10m
V2 (F9 adj)	---		521	2803		0/201	26030/28833	9.72%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Matinee:  193/3423 [5.64% sold] | 6.35% of all tickets sold

Regal:      470/9342 [5.03% sold] [+90 tickets]

 

===

 

Added a "Matinee" field on both this and NTTD, as we're getting to the point in Venom 2 sales where it is actually starting to matter.  Not all that many tickets at the moment as Cinemark isn't offering matinee pricing here for Thur Night, and that matters a lot given how much of the market share it has here. 

 

Regal, which is offering some matinee showings, also doesn't appear to be offering it on its PLF screens, and that also matters with V2's current PLF penetration (currently 40% of all seats sold are some sort of PLF — which will start to come down as we get closer to release). 

 

Not much else to say, except another absolutely gangbusters day locally which shows that Sunday was no fluke at all.

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	241	29214	32969	3755	11.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today	26
Total Seats Added Today	1759
Total Seats Sold Today	718

 

T-2 Comp         

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	64.74		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		8.95m
SC	114.52		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		10.08m

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	140.61		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		10.45m
V2 (F9 adj)	---		656	3459		0/226	27133/30592	11.31%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Matinee:    232/3239 [7.16% sold] | 6.18% of all tickets sold

Regal:      792/10653 [7.43% sold] [+332 tickets]

 

===

 

Still managed to outsell Black Widow at T-2, if only just.  Not too bad at all. 👍

Edited October 13, 2021 by Porthos

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

11 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Seems pretty fair to me. FG and Candy both had over 1k PTA last wknd, so they should be the holdovers aside from SC and DEH that keep a decent number of locs.

 

In contrast Tammy had just 464 PTA after a fairly aggressive expansion. Doubt many places would see that and decide to add it in wknd 3 with some 100M of openers.

Yeah it totally flopped. I just wish the theater here had a wider variety. They held onto Respect even until last week! I'll see Venom this weekend and would have liked to catch something else without having to travel out of way to the AMC multiplex.

[CJohn]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I'd like to think it was this post that CJohn made that truly sealed the deal for Venom 2 to take off.  👍

60M is not taking off tho. Neither is 70M.

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

60M is not taking off tho. Neither is 70M.

 

 

Come on, CJohn, you've been around here long enough to recognize a surge in ticket sales.  I, mean really, 50% more than SC on Sunday nationally certainly qualifies as "taking off".  Especially since you were saying it was headed to 40m.  

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Come on, CJohn, you've been around here long enough to recognize a surge in ticket sales.  I, mean really, 50% more than SC on Sunday nationally certainly qualifies as "taking off".  Especially since you were saying it was headed to 40m.  

40M was stupid. It will do mid 50s. Either way it doesn't make 70M taking off. 

[Legion Again]

Spoiler

 

On 10/7/2019 at 10:10 PM, Eric Soprano said:

The Addams Family Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	95	5,749	1.65%

 

Comp

1.011x of Dora 3 days before release (1.26M)

2.065x of Abominable 3 days before release (1.34M)

 

I haven't done number crunching or found a good comp for this yet, but those seem like okay preview numbers? Of course, if the movie gains momentum in the coming days, that would be very nice.

 

On 10/8/2019 at 8:34 PM, Eric Soprano said:

The Addams Family Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	174	6,287	2.77%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 538

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp

1.673x of Dora 2 days before release (2.09M)

2.900x of Abominable 2 days before release (1.88M)

 

So yes, the T-Mobile deal probably played a big part in this massive jump. And I definitely don't see those numbers happening (Goosebumps 2's IM would give us a range of 39.6M-44M, which...yeah, no. And yes, you can quote me if this does hit 40M for some inexplicable reason). But still...79 tickets is 79 tickets. And I guess it shows out of all the movies that could break out this weekend, this seems like the one.

 

On 10/9/2019 at 10:32 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Looked at Addams family previews and OD at AMC and data is not pretty.

 

Previews - 6393/155228 (1169 shows)
OD -13523/372510 (2557 shows)

 

While I am new to this but it looks like < 1m previews and definitely not 30m OW but more like 20m OW optimistically. I could however be wrong. I will add Cinemark previews shortly. I doubt they will change my thoughts a lot.

 

of course this could be a walk ups monster and so I will update tomorrow night to see how did walk ups go for this tomorrow.

 

On 10/9/2019 at 12:07 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Cinemark Addams family Previews( 1236 shows ):3844/123614

 

Not great.its below Mal 2 which is opening next week and is not having a great PS either. I am going to stick with my prediction made above.

 

On 10/9/2019 at 9:31 PM, Eric Soprano said:

The Addams Family Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	217	6,287	3.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 43

 

Comp

1.736x of Dora 1 day before release (2.17M)

2.818x of Abominable 1 day before release (1.83M)

 

This is even worse than Jexi's hold. Even if Tuesday overperformed, this is inexcusable, and does put the movie in a more vulnerable position. But hey, walk-ups should still be strong, so maybe this is just alarmist nonsense who knows?

 

On 10/10/2019 at 1:38 PM, Eric Soprano said:

The Addams Family Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	330	6,287	5.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 113

 

Comp

1.625x of Dora 1 day before release (2.03M)

1.467x of Abominable 1 day before release (953K)

 

It's different worlds these two comps. One of them would be fantastic, and the other would be somewhat mediocre. I don't really know what to think at the moment, but I feel this should at least beat out Abominable when it comes to opening weekend.

 

 

Collected some posts about AF1 from sources that are still active. I would be very careful  about trying to straight comp given that Eric’s philly coverage and the National Cinemark coverage may have evolved a lot since then, but maybe since I went to the trouble of finding them I figured I might as well drop ‘em here.

[Legion Again]

Now with those boring caveats out of the way, the philly data looks awful but the MTC2 data looks solid  

[TwoMisfits]

So, if my locals are setting a trend, holdovers will get enormous theater drops this weekend...these are 12 screeners...

 

1st Cinemark has Venom on 6 screens, Addams Family on 2, Many Saints of Newark on 1 (now you know the order of finish this weekend:), and only held Shang Chi on 1 and Dear Evam Hansen on less than 1 (the rest of the screens are foreign films)...so, 1 actual holdover, b/c I'm pretty sure DEH had to be held 2 weeks...

 

2nd Cinemark also has Venom on 6 screens, Addams Family on 2, Many Saints of Newark on 1 (sensing a trend:), and only held Shang Chi on 1, DEH on 1, and surprisingly Candyman on .5 (October strikes again for keeping horror:), with foreign films taking the rest of that screen...

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am thinking more like 9.5-10M previews and 20.5-22M True Friday.

PS for friday is ahead of F9 and its having stronger sales this week. I think its true friday should be ahead of F9 as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

PS for friday is ahead of F9 and its having stronger sales this week. I think its true friday should be ahead of F9 as well. 

Venom is CBM. Yes initial few days were low but those were most likely due to the date ambiguity.

 

Venom 1 THU was 31% of OD, there is no reason for 2nd to be lower than that.

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

PS for friday is ahead of F9 and its having stronger sales this week. I think its true friday should be ahead of F9 as well. 

But both PS and pace are ahead not by that much. I could see it going either way. It's close enough that F9 can catch up, but I wouldn't be surprised if Venom stretches the lead as well. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/28/2021 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-2	Addams Family 2	Jacksonville	6	18	3,102	15	0	0.48%
		Phoenix	6	13	1,959	23	8	1.17%
		Raleigh	7	19	1,681	13	4	0.77%
	Addams Family 2 Total		19	50	6,742	51	12	0.76%
	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	72	11,075	642	145	5.80%
		Phoenix	7	62	10,037	796	155	7.93%
		Raleigh	7	47	5,520	590	132	10.69%
	Venom 2 Total		20	181	26,632	2,028	432	7.61%
T-3	Many Saints	Jacksonville	7	28	3,375	77	17	2.28%
		Phoenix	6	18	2,251	74	10	3.29%
		Raleigh	7	27	3,328	93	20	2.79%
	Many Saints Total		20	73	8,954	244	47	2.73%
T-8	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	3	3	1,046	66	12	6.31%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	12	4	2.93%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	78	1	51.66%
	No Time to Die (Wed) Total		5	5	1,607	156	17	9.71%
T-9	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	7	59	10,119	174	12	1.72%
		Phoenix	6	31	5,132	137	13	2.67%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,725	231	30	6.20%
	No Time to Die Total		20	120	18,976	542	55	2.86%

 

Venom is closing in on Shang-Chi total preview sales here; it's passed SC in Phoenix and Jacksonville but trailing a good bit in Raleigh.

 

Addams Family 2 T-3 comps

Boss Baby 2 - .35x (461k)

Peter Rabbit 2 - .49x (441k)

 

Many Saints T-4 comps (Friday)

Cry Macho - 5.55x (8.87m)

Candyman - 1.54x (4.63m)

 

Venom 2 T-3 comps

TSS - 2.78x (11.39m)

F9 - 1.17x (8.32m)

SC - .97x (8.52m)

 

Average - 9.41m

 

No Time to Die T-10 comps

F9 - .63x (4.45m)

TSS - 1.72x (7.03m)

 

Average - 5.74m

Average incl Wed - 7.4m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Addams Family 2	Jacksonville	6	18	3,102	28	13	0.90%
		Phoenix	7	19	2,228	46	23	2.06%
		Raleigh	7	19	1,681	46	33	2.74%
	Addams Family 2 Total		20	56	7,011	120	69	1.71%
	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	83	11,952	823	181	6.89%
		Phoenix	7	70	10,651	1,053	257	9.89%
		Raleigh	7	53	6,013	768	178	12.77%
	Venom 2 Total		20	206	28,616	2,644	616	9.24%
T-2	Many Saints	Jacksonville	7	31	3,559	98	21	2.75%
		Phoenix	7	30	3,292	112	38	3.40%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,431	131	38	3.82%
	Many Saints Total		21	91	10,282	341	97	3.32%
T-7	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	3	3	1,046	78	12	7.46%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	14	2	3.41%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	81	3	53.64%
	No Time to Die (Wed) Total		5	5	1,607	173	17	10.77%
T-8	No Time to Die*	Jacksonville	7	60	10,170	184	25	1.81%
		Phoenix	6	31	5,132	161	24	3.14%
		Raleigh	7	32	3,812	244	13	6.40%
	No Time to Die Total		20	123	19,114	589	62	3.08%

*No Time to Die had 15 seats switched from sold to unavailable and have been removed from previous days

 

Venom 2 has now surpassed SC at the same point.

 

Addams Family 2 T-1 comps

Boss Baby 2 - .69x (898k)

Peter Rabbit 2 - 1.12x (1.01m)

 

Many Saints T-2 comps (Friday)

Candyman - 1.67x (5.01m)

 

Venom 2 T-1 comps

TSS - 2.76x (11.32m)

F9 - 1.21x (8.61m)

SC - 1.08x (9.5m)

 

Average - 9.81m

 

No Time to Die T-8 comps

F9 - .65x (4.65m)

TSS - 1.72x (7.06m)

 

Average - 5.85m

Average incl Wed - 7.57m

[Inceptionzq]

Looks like we might get our first hints of tracking for Eternals, Matrix, No Way Home, etc here. @Shawn are you guys gonna be talking individual movies or just the market in general?