The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[el sid]

First of all, it had a great day!
Venom 2 counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 596 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 625 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 203 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 43 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 226+ (12 showtimes, still 1 Sell Out report)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 634 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.057 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.384+.
 

Up 35.5%(!) since yesterday (SC and TSS both jumped ca. 15%).
Comps: TSS (4.1M from previews) had also on Thursday of its release week 1.929 sold tickets which would mean 7.2M for Venom 2.

SC had on Thursday of its release week 3.617 sold tickets (8.8M from previews) = 8.25M for Venom 2.
And AQP II had on the same day 1.582 sold tickets = 10.25M.
So now averagely 8.6M from previews in my comps (yesterday it were 7.6M). It improved by 1M compared to yesterday and even the AQP II comp went up, very good.
For SC my 3 comps (TSS, BoP and AQP II) were averagely 0.5M too low and including the pace Venom has I also go with 10M from previews and 70M+OW.

NTTD counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, October 7:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 131 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 114 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 21 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 29 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 484 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 464 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.249.

Up 9% since yesterday. Maybe got a small review boost and I'm still thinking that it will ca. be on par with F9 next Monday in my theaters (but F9 had a very good last week).

[DAJK]

ShangChi did ~2.4M in Canada for its Thurs+Fri (give or take a decimal point or two). Don’t have Thursday #s specifically, they are rolled into Friday. That should be the number for Venom to beat.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Venom 2 (-1 week)	67/2766	(8pm)	73/2766	(8pm)	80/2766	(6pm)	88/2766	(9pm)		4:00 PM
Venom 2	131/2766	(5:45pm)	161/2766	(9pm)	186/3021	(5pm)	304/3021	(3:15pm)		4:00 PM
Bond (-1 week)	23/1154	(5:45pm)	24/1154	(9pm)	24/1409	(5pm)				6:00 PM
Shang-Chi (-1 week)	78/1402	(4pm)	112/1402	(8pm)	116/1402	(6pm)	125/1402	(6:45pm)		6:00 PM
Shang-Chi	190/1402	(5pm)	234/1402	(5pm)	331/1402	(5pm)	511/1402	(5pm)	$8.8m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)	498/3584	(4pm)	$13.2m	5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)	$4.2m	7:00 PM

 

I wish I had Thur numbers for H&S and any F9 numbers

 

Wed to Thur jumps:

 

Venom 2:  63%
X-Men: 30%
Joker: 40%
Z2: 42%
BW: 53%
SC: 54%

BOP: 57%
TSS: 94%

 

COMPS

 

SC: $5.23m
Joker: $5.32m
X-Men:DP: $5.59m
BOP: $7.33m
BW:  $8.05m
TSS: $8.35m
Zombie 2:  $9.12m

 

Avg = $7m

Avg = $8.21m (minus very preview front loaded at my theater: SC, Joker & X-Men)

[WrathOfHan]

Final sales (unless I see how walkups go later):

 

Venom 2:

4:00 Dolby: 48/236

4:30 3D: 5/67

5:00: 14/107

6:00 IMAX: 11/372

6:30 Dolby: 75/236

7:00 3D: 11/67

7:30: 44/107

8:30 IMAX: 33/372

9:00 Dolby: 87/236

9:30 3D: 4/67

10:00: 16/107

Total: 348/1,974

 

Comps:

 

55% of Black Widow (7.3M)

68% of Shang-Chi (5.9M)

126% of F9 (8.8M)

167% of AQP2 (8M)

238% of The Suicide Squad (9.8M)

 

Ok, now this looks more in line with everyone else  7.5-9M is the range imo. Based on how PLF sales are compared to F9, I'll go with 8.3M

 

Titane:

6:00: 12/40

8:40: 21/40

Total: 33/80

 

Comps:

 

53% of The Green Knight (400k previews/3.6M Weekend)

220% of Pig (2.1M Weekend)

 

 

 

Addams Family 2:

4:00: 7/107

6:45: 6/107

9:15: 0/107

Total: 13/314

 

This is slightly below Peter Rabbit 2 and Boss Baby 2 from the summer. Previews might hit 1M

[keysersoze123]

As previews are starting in East Coast. 

 

Venom 2 Previews

MTC1 - 138486/701863 2218007.24 3854 shows

MTC2 - 112475/702137 1481238.34 5241 shows

 

FYI Shang Chi final

MTC1 - 168703/510345 2583538.05 3099 shows

MTC2 -  121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows

 

There is absolutely 0% chance of this finishing below SC. It will comfortably beat it with walk ups. I am sticking with 10.5m previews. 

[Porthos]

On 9/29/2021 at 11:44 PM, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	244	28009	33136	5127	15.47%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	167
Total Seats Sold Today	1372

 

T-1 Comp         

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	73.83		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		10.21m
SC	121.84		929	4208		0/188	20777/24985	16.84%		10.72m

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	162.88		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		12.11m
V2 (F9 adj)	---		1263	4722		0/229	26037/30759	15.35%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Matinee:    362/3239 [11.18% sold] | 7.06% of all tickets sold

Regal:      792/10653 [11.33% sold] [+415 tickets]

 

====

 

Just a monster of a day locally for .

 

That F9 comp isn't gonna hold as F9 exploded on its last day, as per usual for the franchise.  But, sakes alive, to surpass Black Widow today by more than 200 tickets at T-1 isn't an easy ask at all.

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:50pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	247	27183	33656	6473	19.23%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	3
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	3
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	520
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1346

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comp         

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	82.62		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		11.42m
SC	133.68		634	4842		1/192	20608/25450	19.03%		11.76m

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	176.02		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		13.09m
V2 (F9 adj)	---		1245	5967		0/232	25312/31279	19.08%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Matinee:      570/3239 [17.60% sold] | 8.81% of all tickets sold

Regal:      1596/10653 [14.98% sold] [+804 tickets]

 

===

 

Not a bad review bump for .

 

==================

 

Just an outstanding half-day locally.  Enough so that I'm fairly certain that Sacto is now over-indexing pretty heavily.

 

One note of caution.  Once again, I am seeing suspicious sellouts from the local Studio Movie Grill (it happened at the end of Shang-Chi's run as well) which caused spike in sales.  On the other hand, even if I remove those suspicious sellouts and knock off over 100 tickets from the total, V2 still sold around 1250 tickets this half day. 

 

On the third hand, I have caught an SMG showing that has only around 15 seats left for 82% of capacity.  So even if SMG is shutting down at around 85% to 90% capacity for reasons, we're only talking a difference of around 50 to 75 seats, which at this point is just shaving tenths of a million off the comp (SC, for instance would be 11.6m instead of 11.8m).

 

Matinees are starting to rear their head a bit, though. So I'll be adjusting the comp downward at final report.  Speaking of which, I'll be taking my samples about an hour earlier than the comps of BW and SC, so that'll depress the comp a bit as well.

 

Still, notes of caution aside, just an utterly massive start to the day locally.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 1830(+417)/23176 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.51M

Black Widow comp: 4.85M

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-0 days Thursday: 3329(+1499) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.88M

Black Widow comp: 5.31M

 

Not exactly doing gangbusters here, at least not compared to the MCU. It's performing more akin to how Fast 9 did, but unfortunately I don't have the final count for that. But I'm pretty confident that a Fast 9 comp would've pointed to somewhere in the ball park of 9M FWIW

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

As previews are starting in East Coast. 

 

Venom 2 Previews

MTC1 - 138486/701863 2218007.24 3854 shows

MTC2 - 112475/702137 1481238.34 5241 shows

 

FYI Shang Chi final

MTC1 - 168703/510345 2583538.05 3099 shows

MTC2 -  121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows

 

There is absolutely 0% chance of this finishing below SC. It will comfortably beat it with walk ups. I am sticking with 10.5m previews. 

Now up to 4.11m between 2 MTC(not far from final SC number). I think 5m+ is happening. I expect peak hours to be between 4-7PM PST when all 3 time zones will be busy. Then it starts to slow down and not much happens post 9PM PST. I take status check around 8-9PM PST. MTC2 pace on par with MTC1. MTC1 @ 153769 and MTC2 @ 127982. Looking at MTC skew the overall ratio will be better than SC for sure. 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Now up to 4.11m between 2 MTC(not far from final SC number). I think 5m+ is happening. I expect peak hours to be between 4-7PM PST when all 3 time zones will be busy. Then it starts to slow down and not much happens post 9PM PST. I take status check around 8-9PM PST. MTC2 pace on par with MTC1. MTC1 @ 153769 and MTC2 @ 127982. Looking at MTC skew the overall ratio will be better than SC for sure. 

 

 

At this pace 11 million previews should be doable. Though with earlier preview start times there won't be as much acceleration in night shows, but doesn't need crazy acceleration to get there. It added 400k in 2.5 hours. Hopefully another 600k in the next 2.5, then perhaps another 300-400k in the next 2.5, then maybe another 100-200k till final. (see edit). 5ish final seems about right which can get it over 11 with a good MTC ratio. 

 

Edit: used the wrong time comparison for SC final. 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

At this pace 11 million previews should be doable. Though with earlier preview start times there won't be as much acceleration in night shows, but doesn't need crazy acceleration to get there. 

 

Maybe Sacto wasn't over-indexing after all. 

 

(those comp blocks haven't taken matinees into account, for the record)

[DAJK]

Currently at work so I’ll have a better analysis later but... holy crap at Venom. Walk-ups are real strong.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Currently at work so I’ll have a better analysis later but... holy crap at Venom. Walk-ups are real strong.

 

I've been thinking about this for the last couple of days, but this backloaded late surge reminds me a lot of Jurassic World 2 which also had a VERY late surge relative to expectations.

 

Speaking of films that had similar runs to JW2, I made the observation a while ago that perhaps the best comp 2021 could have had to V:LTBC was GvK.  Really is a shame that GvK was released in such a different environment (and day and date no less) coz it would have been fascinating to see how their runs would have played out in a more normal circumstance. 

[grey ghost]

I expect this to be a huge walk up film.

 

It's perfect for casuals to go to with their friends in October.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

543

2295

23.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

295

2637

11.19%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2502	552	27339	9.15%	15	159

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 891

 

AMCs sold	1470
Cinemarks sold	526
Regals sold	286
Harkins sold	220

 

Shang-Chi comp: 9.26M

Black Widow comp: 8.12M

 

Basically even with Black Widow in sales today. Way ahead of Shang-Chi.

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

866

2295

37.73%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

457

2676

17.08%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4384	1882	27856	15.74%	15	166

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 517

 

AMCs sold	2278
Cinemarks sold	1015
Regals sold	574
Harkins sold	517

 

Shang-Chi comp: 9.56M

Black Widow comp: 9.10M

 

ATP doesn't seem to be affected by Matinees according to key's data, and looking through some Regal showings, there doesn't seem to be Matinee pricing. So I won't dock anything from the comps for that, though it might just be around here. Really good final day, especially for a 4PM start. I think walkups will do super well, so I'm gonna assume that if this were a 6PM start, it would've sold 4750 by then. And with the SC comp, that gives 10.36M. So I'll go with that.

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, Menor said:

At this pace 11 million previews should be doable. Though with earlier preview start times there won't be as much acceleration in night shows, but doesn't need crazy acceleration to get there. It added 400k in 2.5 hours. Hopefully another 600k in the next 2.5, then perhaps another 300-400k in the next 2.5, then maybe another 100-200k till final. (see edit). 5ish final seems about right which can get it over 11 with a good MTC ratio. 

 

Edit: used the wrong time comparison for SC final. 

Impressive stuff is it was tad below 2 hours. MTC1 around 1:45 and MTC2 around 1:50. I will try another run around 430PM PST. We will know for sure how the peak walk ups look like. 

 

Plus reports from @DAJK for Canada means MTC ratio will be lower. I am think 43%(BW was 44%) than 48% for SC.

 

That said some of the regional comps show its not universally exploding everywhere. But neither did Joker and that grossed whooping 13.3m doing gang buster business in big markets. This is a different beast but I have a feeling we will something like Joker here. 

 

Edit: Just looked at Empire 25 and Venom 2 is at 832/5870 20008.68 20 (probably will finish around 1200). Joker sold over 4K tickets and so Venom 2 is just opposite of Joker 2 in terms of dominance. It did ok at NYC but exploding else wehre. 

Edited September 30, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Impressive stuff is it was tad below 2 hours. MTC1 around 1:45 and MTC2 around 1:50. I will try another run around 430PM PST. We will know for sure how the peak walk ups look like. 

 

Plus reports from @DAJK for Canada means MTC ratio will be lower. I am think 43%(BW was 44%) than 48% for SC.

 

That said some of the regional comps show its not universally exploding everywhere. But neither did Joker and that grossed whooping 13.3m doing gang buster business in big markets. This is a different beast but I have a feeling we will something like Joker here. 

Damn, didn't realize that. In that case...well, I won't say anything for now. No need to raise expectations yet. But that opens up some possibilities. 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

Give me a 90+ ......

[Pinacolada]

It would be pretty hype if it beats the first movie's OW. Should come close

Edited September 30, 2021 by Pinacolada

[DAJK]

I wouldn’t go 90+ yet but I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if it matched Venom 1.

 

one thing to note with Canada is that it is a national holiday today, so preview-to-Friday ratio will be skewed a bit (stronger previews than normal). I will take that into account with my comps, because otherwise I WOULD be saying 90+ is a real possibility. 

[narniadis]

These explosions add excitement that has been missing the last month.... always a good thing and we appreciate the work each of you do.