The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

124

1690

7.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

156

1610

9.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
638	92	18005	3.54%	15	105

 

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 1152

 

AMCs sold	472
Cinemarks sold	48
Regals sold	114
Harkins	4

 

Wednesday:

Total

162

1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.19M

Fast 9 comp: 6.67M

 

Really nice review bump.

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

127

1690

7.51%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

179

1610

11.12%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
696	58	18005	3.87%	15	105

 

AMCs sold	520
Cinemarks sold	58
Regals sold	114
Harkins	4

 

Wednesday:

Total

181

1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.05M

Fast 9 comp: 6.90M

[Cmasterclay]

Thanks trackers for all your hard work!

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-7 days Wednesday: 335(+57)/2115 in 4 theaters

 

T-8 days Thursday: 783(+114)/20337 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.20M

Black Widow comp: 3.86M

 

T-9 days Friday: 1262(+117)/36586 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 34.42M

Black Widow comp: 16.83M

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-6 days Wednesday: 395(+60)/2115 in 4 theaters

 

T-7 days Thursday: 894(+111)/20505(+168) in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.58M

Fast 9 comp: 9.29M

 

T-8 days Friday: 1405(+143)/36586 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 34.75M

Fast 9 comp: 37.98M

 

Probably just gonna leave SC for the whole run. Mostly for that Friday comp.

[keysersoze123]

43 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I wouldn’t go 90+ yet but I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if it matched Venom 1.

 

one thing to note with Canada is that it is a national holiday today, so preview-to-Friday ratio will be skewed a bit (stronger previews than normal). I will take that into account with my comps, because otherwise I WOULD be saying 90+ is a real possibility. 

There is no holiday stateside and walk ups today have been crazy strong. Its looking to more than double the number at MTCs which is crazy strong(way stronger than final day from even BW). Plus its PS is quite good for Friday/Saturday.  I am upping to 12m previews/90m OW. 

 

I think @Legion of the Ten Crores reverse jinxed this movie with his club and now its beating all released MCU movies so far this year with OW, Domestic and WW(Russia start is super strong). :-)

[Eric Atreides]

18 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

The Addams Family 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	105	8288	1.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 44

 

Comp

0.390x of Boss Baby 2 T-1 (511K)

0.335x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (906K)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.424x of The Addams Family T-1 (530K)

The Addams Family 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	191	8288	2.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 86

 

Comp

0.250x of Boss Baby 2 (327K)

0.242x of Jungle Cruise (654K)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.518x of The Addams Family (647K)

 

I mean with it doing half of the first Addams, we should expect about 15M? Maybe? Yeah it's not very good.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think @Legion of the Ten Crores reverse jinxed this movie with his club and now its beating all released MCU movies so far this year with OW, Domestic and WW(Russia start is super strong). 🙂

As I told @charlie Jatinder last night 

Quote

If V2 outopens BW it’s officially an MCU movie 🙃

This copium goes to 11  

[Eric Atreides]

18 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	139	2979	25956	11.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 816

 

Comp

1.179x of F9 T-1 (8.37M)

0.579x of Black Widow T-1 (7.65M)

2.723x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (11.16M)

0.920x of Shang-Chi T-1 (8.09M)

 

Wild to think this could finish ahead of Shang-Chi tomorrow.

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	139	5238	25956	20.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2,259

 

Comp

1.155x of F9 (8.2M)

0.690x of Black Widow (9.11M)

2.576x of The Suicide Squad (10.56M)

1.102x of Shang-Chi (9.70M)

 

Not as big a jump as other people's, but still really, really, really impressive stuff.

[Porthos]

On 9/30/2021 at 1:14 PM, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:50pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	247	27183	33656	6473	19.23%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	3
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	3
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	520
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1346

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comp         

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	82.62		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		11.42m
SC	133.68		634	4842		1/192	20608/25450	19.03%		11.76m

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	176.02		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		13.09m
V2 (F9 adj)	---		1245	5967		3/232	25312/31279	19.08%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Matinee:      570/3239 [17.60% sold] | 8.81% of all tickets sold

Regal:      1596/10653 [14.98% sold] [+804 tickets]

 

===

 

Not a bad review bump for .

 

==================

 

Just an outstanding half-day locally.  Enough so that I'm fairly certain that Sacto is now over-indexing pretty heavily.

 

One note of caution.  Once again, I am seeing suspicious sellouts from the local Studio Movie Grill (it happened at the end of Shang-Chi's run as well) which caused spike in sales.  On the other hand, even if I remove those suspicious sellouts and knock off over 100 tickets from the total, V2 still sold around 1250 tickets this half day. 

 

On the third hand, I have caught an SMG showing that has only around 15 seats left for 82% of capacity.  So even if SMG is shutting down at around 85% to 90% capacity for reasons, we're only talking a difference of around 50 to 75 seats, which at this point is just shaving tenths of a million off the comp (SC, for instance would be 11.6m instead of 11.8m).

 

Matinees are starting to rear their head a bit, though. So I'll be adjusting the comp downward at final report.  Speaking of which, I'll be taking my samples about an hour earlier than the comps of BW and SC, so that'll depress the comp a bit as well.

 

Still, notes of caution aside, just an utterly massive start to the day locally.

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:35pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	249	25893	33735	7842	23.25%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	2
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	79
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1369

 

T-0 Comp         

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	85.28		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		11.79m
SC [4:40-5:30]	132.51		1076	5918		3/196	19785/25703	23.02%		11.66m

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	163.51		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		12.15m
V2 (F9 adj)	---		1239	7206		3/234	24152/31358	22.98%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

Matinee:      747/3239 [23.06% sold] | 9.35% of all tickets sold

Regal:      2052/10653 [19.26% sold] [+456 tickets]

 

========

 

Despite stopping my sample approximately an hour earlier, Venom 2 still managed to outsell Black Widow's rest of T-0.  And it's not all matinees, either, as there are relatively strong sales post 10pm.  The monster mash element might be drawing in a late night crowd here.

 

Still, almost 9% of sales were matinees, though that number will drop as the might goes on as walkups are still incredibly strong from what I can tell.  But still have to knock something off the 11.7m comp the CBMs are suggesting, so let's say an even 11m +/- .4m in previews (large variance due to figuring out how to account for matinee ticket pricing).

 

I still think Sacramento is over-performing relative to some markets, but it was an incredibly strong second half of the day, so maybe not by that much.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Still, almost 9% of sales were matinees, though that number will drop as the might goes on as walkups are still incredibly strong from what I can tell.  But still have to knock something off the 11.7m comp the CBMs are suggesting, so let's say an even 11m +/- .4m in previews (large variance due to figuring out how to account for matinee ticket pricing).

 

I still think Sacramento is over-performing relative to some markets, but it was an incredibly strong second half of the day, so maybe not by that much.

 

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no holiday stateside and walk ups today have been crazy strong. Its looking to more than double the number at MTCs which is crazy strong(way stronger than final day from even BW). Plus its PS is quite good for Friday/Saturday.  I am upping to 12m previews/90m OW. 

 

I think @Legion of the Ten Crores reverse jinxed this movie with his club and now its beating all released MCU movies so far this year with OW, Domestic and WW(Russia start is super strong). :-)

 

Or, maybe not.

 

FWIW, I don't feel comfortable saying 11.7m off of my comps simply because of the large amount of matinee tickets.  But seeing this does make me think 11.25 - 11.5 might be in the cards.  But, as usual, gonna go where the local comps point me.

 

(would be funny if it is close to 11.7m and I'm being too conservative for once )

((Yes, I made my post before seeing the last round of updates — I don't like being influenced on my final adjustment [too much, at least ]) 

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Now up to 4.11m between 2 MTC(not far from final SC number). I think 5m+ is happening. I expect peak hours to be between 4-7PM PST when all 3 time zones will be busy. Then it starts to slow down and not much happens post 9PM PST. I take status check around 8-9PM PST. MTC2 pace on par with MTC1. MTC1 @ 153769 and MTC2 @ 127982. Looking at MTC skew the overall ratio will be better than SC for sure. 

 

 

Venom 2 Previews 

MTC1 - 184800/704123 2883512.96 3890 shows

MTC2 - 160627/711454 2067783.25 5302 shows

 

It should comfortably cross 5m. I think needs 5.3/5.4m at MTCs to hit 12m. Definitely in sight. 

[ThomasNicole]

Well seems like 85-90M is possible for Venom, woah.

 

If this one can make 90M, i think Eternals is definitely coming to be our first +100M OW in ages.

 

Bond seems to be doing good too, wouldn't be surprised with 70M. Wondering what Paramount is thinking now...

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Warner Bros posting their Ls

[XXR vs XXR]

NWH O/U $30m Thursday? 👀

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

NWH O/U $30m Thursday? 👀

I thought the O/U had been established at 40 a while ago 🤔

 

Guess I should go check that 200M club.

Edited October 1, 2021 by Legion of the Ten Crores

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

NWH O/U $30m Thursday? 👀

That's trivial, 45 is a better goal. 

[keysersoze123]

While Eternals and Spidey will be big, Venom did not do that great in NYC and did well elsewhere. So its audience base is slightly different from traditional SH movies. So let us not correlate BO directly from Venom to Spidey. That said the best news is how much BO has recovered now. Though I am expecting with Thanksgiving and holidays, things could again revert back a bit in locations with mediocre vaccination. Only time will tell. Let us focus on Venom and then Bond. Let Eternals PS start before we extrapolate. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Wish I looked up at Harkins for estimating the smaller chains but showcount was just too much. Anyhow, I am not sure about where these numbers will settle, but Y'day I had put 3.3 (3.13 our coverage) & 2.6 target for MTC 1 & 2. MTC 1 may reach there, but can 2 @keysersoze123?

Those targets were for $10.25M $10.75M previews.

Edited October 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wish I looked up at Harkins for estimating the smaller chains but showcount was just too much. Anyhow, I am not sure about where these numbers will settle, but Y'day I had put 3.3 (3.13 our coverage) & 2.6 target for MTC 1 & 2. MTC 1 may reach there, but can 2 @keysersoze123?

Those targets were for $10.25M previews.

How are those the targets? That would be a crazy high MTC ratio. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

How are those the targets? That would be a crazy high MTC ratio. 

Check the DM. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

That's trivial, 45 is a better goal.