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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Venom 2 beating Venom 1 and SC is certainly a surprise for all, I believe I can attribute the difference between SC and Venom to Delta reduction.....

 

Anyway, I really hope a theatrical exclusive product will beat BW for the top opening of the year, this may running neck-to-neck with SC for total sum, anyone know if Venom2 will have 45 days window or longer?.    

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Venom 2 Previews Final

MTC1 - 206846/705013 3203659.08 3897 shows

MTC2 - 192093/714267 2455306.43 5311 shows

 

WOW. Just phenomenal finish for Venom 2. I think 12m+ is locked. In fact I am going to say it will be around 12.5m.

 

I will update OD PS later. But based on what we saw today, real action will be seen with walk ups. It crushed F9 or any other movie in pandemic era today. Plus that MTC1 to MTC2 ratio shows it played well everywhere. 

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Do we know what % of canada was closed for BW. BW finish just to repeat was.


MTC1 - 247246/735519 3368382.00 4624 shows

MTC2 - 195911/614108 2432725.96 4692 shows (I was double counting dbox seats and so that added 3K seats). 

 

Basically Venom 2 did 95%+ of BW at MTC1 and did better than BW in MTC2 and I am sure canada would add few 100K to gross as well. 

 

Edit: Dbox error is closer to 3K for previews and 6K for a full day. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am thinking $11.25M based on these. Let's see.

I don't get how you are getting these low numbers. MTC3 cannot be that bad surely. Look at the ratio vs everything else we have tracked this year, I don't see how it's lower than 12. 

 

Nvm. I see what you mean by coverage increase. But I don't think it would make that big of a difference in just a couple of months surely? 

Edited by Menor
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23 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

The Many Saints of Newark Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 655 9564 6.85%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 260

Total Seats Sold Today: 154

 

Comp

0.821x of Cruella Thu+Fri Wednesday Before Release (6.33M)

0.433x of Conjuring 3 T-2 (4.25M)

The Many Saints of Newark Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 868 9564 9.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 213

 

Comp

0.682x of Cruella Thu+Fri (5.25M)

0.338x of Conjuring 3 (3.32M)

 

This likely won't get many walk-ups as a fan-driven title, so I can only hope Max viewership delivers here.

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2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Wasn't that BW final update 1 hour earlier though? 

BO does not move much after 8PM PST. Most of the sales are through presales. Its not as if people walk up late hours to see a movie on thursday. Anyway you can correct if you feel that made a big difference. We will know tomorrow morning(or hopefully earlier as this is a huge breakout). 

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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Do we know what % of canada was closed for BW. BW finish just to repeat was.


MTC1 - 247246/735519 3368382.00 4624 shows

MTC2 - 195911/614108 2432725.96 4692 shows (I was double counting dbox seats and so that added 6K seats). 

 

Basically Venom 2 did 95%+ of BW at MTC1 and did better than BW in MTC2 and I am sure canada would add few 100K to gross as well. 

It’s doing WAY BETTER than BW in Canada.

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23 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 941 14653 6.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 116

 

Comp

0.939x of F9 T-8 (6.67M)

0.374x of Black Widow T-8 (4.95M)

2.450x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (10.05M)

0.668x of Shang-Chi T-8 (5.88M)

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 1056 14653 7.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 115

 

Comp

1.001x of F9 T-7 (7.11M)

0.399x of Black Widow T-7 (5.27M)

2.545x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (10.43M)

0.686x of Shang-Chi T-7 (6.03M)

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On 9/29/2021 at 4:49 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-2 days Friday: 1862(+462)/49466(-321) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 17.16M

Black Widow comp: 10.30M

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-1 day Friday: 3327(+1465)/49906(+440) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 18.00M

Black Widow comp: 10.24M

 

Again, this just isn't on the level that the MCU is for Megaplex theatres. Though it looks like this would also be behind Fast 9, so just a straight underperformance here. Or at least just not as presale heavy as those movies.

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5 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-8 days Friday: 1405(+143)/36586 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 34.75M

Fast 9 comp: 37.98M

Forgot to mention that Fast 9 and SC's Friday numbers were really close to each other up to the end of my F9 tracking. Only a 16 ticket difference for T-2 days. So I think SC will be a good Friday comp for Megaplex even if their final 2 days were a bit different.

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah Megaplex is underperforming a lot. I removed it from my estimation for US rest chains as it was downing them, took only Harkins. Looked up few theaters in Harkins, Harkins should be around $230K. 

Doing that, now I am on board for $12M.

Megaplex just makes no sense to me. Venom underperforming. NTTD looks like it could be a big overperformer. Wednesday+Thursday and Friday are beating SC Thursday and Friday. Doesn't help that I mainly have MCU comps, but I forgot that I had TSS which points to 13.15M. So it's performing mostly like TSS, which makes no sense to me. As I get more comps, perhaps it'll make more sense.

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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday(T-2)

MTC1 - 96628/1079043 1566674.26 5694 shows (+22674)

MTC2 - 80037/1040744 1002734.60 7425 shows (+19137)

Friday PS END

MTC1 - 143167/1090204 2262737.01 5823 shows (+46539)

MTC2 -  121076/1049755 1485982.14 7495 shows (+41039)

 

Quite good considering the craziness we saw with its previews. Let us see how tomorrow goes. if its anywhere close to what we saw today, its going to have a special OW. 

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22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday PS END

MTC1 - 143167/1090204 2262737.01 5823 shows (+46539)

MTC2 -  121076/1049755 1485982.14 7495 shows (+41039)

 

Quite good considering the craziness we saw with its previews. Let us see how tomorrow goes. if its anywhere close to what we saw today, its going to have a special OW. 

Will be around $8.25M Friday PS. SC was $7.4M while BW was $10.4M. Will have 2.75-2.9x PSm I guess, so 22.5-24M.

 

But then THU PSm is already 2.3x range, however, its almost a full day OD FWIW with shows starting from 4PM. Considering 3x PSm is minimum it will do, but can it? A CBM having 3x PSm 👀

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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