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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time To Die Megaplex

 

T-4 days Wednesday: 447(+29)/2115 in 4 theaters

 

T-5 days Thursday: 1046(+59)/20505 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.59M

Fast 9 comp: 9.52M

 

T-6 days Friday: 1689(+120)/36586 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 33.39M

Fast 9 comp: 34.66M

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-3 days Wednesday: 465(+18)/2115 in 4 theaters

 

T-4 days Thursday: 1149(+103)/20505 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.60M

Fast 9 comp: 9.75M

 

T-5 days Friday: 1855(+166)/36788 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 34.01M

Fast 9 comp: 33.51M

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 54 311 17.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 12 159 7.55%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
152 N/A 4286 3.55% 15 26

 

AMCs sold 109
Cinemarks sold 18
Regals sold 17
Harkins sold 8

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 2.67M

Fast 9 day 2 comp: 5.37M

Suicide Squad day 2 comp: 4.05M

 

Don't really have any good comps for this but the start seems fine

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 61 311 19.61%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 19 159 11.95%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
185 33 4478 4.13% 15 28

 

AMCs sold 132
Cinemarks sold 23
Regals sold 18
Harkins sold 12

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 192

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 3.02M

Fast 9 day 3 comp: 5.69M

Suicide Squad day 3 comp: 4.03M

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-12 days Thursday: 41/3388 in 10 theaters

 

T-13 days Friday: 48/7055 in 12 theaters

 

I have no clue how Horror performs at Megaplex theatres, and I'm not gonna comp this to MCU or Venom.

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-11 days Thursday: 62(+21)/3388 in 10 theaters

 

T-12 days Friday: 84(+36)/8656(+1600) in 12 theaters

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2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Are you going to count the Wednesday showings?

Actually not because I have zero comparison numbers.

I wonder if the Wednesday showings have an impact on the preview sales on Thursday, I mean because the fans can decide on which day they want to see NTTD before the weekend?

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14 minutes ago, el sid said:

Actually not because I have zero comparison numbers.

I wonder if the Wednesday showings have an impact on the preview sales on Thursday, I mean because the fans can decide on which day they want to see NTTD before the weekend?

Yeah the Wed showings will probably have the biggest impact on Thursday. That’s why I was wondering because I’m sure the early access showings are huge in your theaters

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43 minutes ago, el sid said:

I wonder if the Wednesday showings have an impact on the preview sales on Thursday, I mean because the fans can decide on which day they want to see NTTD before the weekend?

 

Oh, it'll absolutely have an effect, though I think runtime is the bigger limiting factor.

 

FWIW, I am treating Wed+Thr as one day, so I don't know if you doing that would effect your comps or not.

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3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

This will be way more backloaded than F9. I dont think any of the movies would make good comp as the audience base is adult. Let us wait and watch. Craig finale is a big draw. Reviews are very good as well. 

I'm not sure that adult-skewing movies would necessarily have better walkups. Venom 2 had exceptional walkups and skews youngish. Think it's more related to fanbase and I think Bond has a comparable fanbase to Furious. Though I have been wondering if F9 walkups had some capacity limitations at MTC1. I don't remember exactly but I think a few areas still had limits. 

Edited by Menor
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I will add that it's not quite as simple as someone choosing to see NTTD on Wed or Thr, since the early shows are all PLFs.  Because of the run time, there will be fewer PLF slots available on Thr, even with the 4pm start.  Thus those early access shows, while there aren't many of them nationwide, will be something of a pressure release valve. 

 

In turn that "frees up" PLF seats on Thursday in those markets and someone who might have settled for a regular price ticket might splurge for a better PLF experience.  Which in turn might free up a ticket for someone who was planning on waiting for the weekend to see NTTD but instead might grab a decent seat at a regular price showing.  So, if anything, it might depress the internal multiplier than what it might have been simply due to increased capacity (both overall and PLF).

 

===

 

FWIW, locally as of last night 342 tickets have been sold for those Wed showings, or a little more than 22% of all tickets sold (342/1546 = 22.12%).  And that's with only three showings.  Such is the power of PLF and getting to see it a day early.

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm not sure that adult-skewing movies would necessarily have better walkups. Venom 2 had exceptional walkups and skews youngish. Think it's more related to fanbase and I think Bond has a comparable fanbase to Furious. Though I have been wondering if F9 walkups had some capacity limitations at MTC1. I don't remember exactly but I think a few areas still had limits. 

Come on Menor. Look at history of Bond movies. They all had excellent previews to OW ratios. That is a great sign of walk ups. Anyway we will see in a week's time. i am confident about this movie. 

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5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Come on Menor. Look at history of Bond movies. They all had excellent previews to OW ratios. That is a great sign of walk ups. Anyway we will see in a week's time. i am confident about this movie. 

In any case I am also having issues with MTC2. It seems that they've implemented some sort of anti-scraping block software that will shoot down requests that don't have JS enabled. Will look into ways to get around that. 

 

On the point about preview to OW ratios, I think it can be misleading. If you just looked at Venom's internal multi, it wouldn't really stand out, but we all know how great the walkups were. 

Edited by Menor
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Just now, Menor said:

In any case I am also having issues with MTC2. It seems that they've implemented some sort of anti-scraping block software that will shoot down requests that don't have JS enabled. Will look into ways to get around that. 

This was inevitable. Soon we will be left with manual trackers again. :-(

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No Time to Die:

Weds Early Access IMAX: 35/372 (+8)

4:00 IMAX: 4/372 (-)

5:00 Dolby: 22/236 (+2)

7:00: 5/107 (-)

8:00 IMAX: 17/372 (-)

9:00 Dolby: 31/236 (+1)

Total: 114/1,695 (+11) (79/1,323 without Early Access)

 

Comps:

 

33% of Black Widow the day before (4.4M)

50% of Shang-Chi three days out (4.4M)

88% of F9 three days out (6.2M)

121% of Venom 2 four days out (13.6M)

156% of AQP2 two days out (7.5M)

200% of The Suicide Squad five days out (8.2M)

633% of Old five days out (9.5M)

950% of Snake Eyes five days out (13.3M)

 

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2 hours ago, Menor said:

In any case I am also having issues with MTC2. It seems that they've implemented some sort of anti-scraping block software that will shoot down requests that don't have JS enabled. Will look into ways to get around that. 

It was like a 5-minute fix on my end :)

 

No Time to Die MTC2

 

Wed+Thurs:

Showtimes: 2035

Seats Sold: 24140/530585

Total $ sales: at least 348787*

 

TSS comp: 9.43 million

F9 comp: 5.33 million

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 3166

Seats Sold: 25853/511789 

Total $ sales: at least 333155*

 

F9 comp: 17 million

 

Numbers are kinda meh, though take the comps with a big grain of salt, I have nothing good to comp it with. This won't be a huge player at MTC2 given its audience demos, and ATP will likely be higher than F9 as well. That said F9 Friday was weirdly strong at MTC1 (I think Thurs was deflated by some capacity limits) so the Friday comp won't be as skewed as Thurs. 

 

*DBOX ticket price is still giving me trouble but the overall numbers are high enough that the ATP should be sort of accurate. 

Edited by Menor
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Wait till mid next week before extrapolating. This will be backloaded for sure. 

 

Anyway Venom 2 Day 3

MTC1 - 350203/1067404 4762554.39 5822 shows

 

So it dropped around 32.5% and so around 21.3m. Of course it could go up or down depending on how much MTC share changes but it wont be that far from this. I think studio estimates are very close and this should stay tad above 90m. 

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23 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 1216 14653 8.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 77

 

Comp

0.940x of F9 T-5 (6.67M)

0.397x of Black Widow T-5 (5.24M)

2.380x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (9.76M)

0.680x of Shang-Chi T-5 (5.99M)

0.957x of Venom 2 T-5 (11.11M)

 

I wasn't too nervous about yesterday, because I thought it was just a fluke. But two bad days in a row...I can only hope the last few days really ramp up in the end. Otherwise, Mickey's Law really is a cruel, cruel beast.

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 1321 14653 9.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 105

 

Comp

0.943x of F9 T-4 (6.69M)

0.393x of Black Widow T-4 (5.19M)

2.180x of The Suicide Squad T-4 (8.94M)

0.666x of Shang-Chi T-4 (5.86M)

0.926x of Venom 2 T-4 (10.74M)

 

I know some are saying this will be backloaded and that it's set for crazy walk-ups...but I would expect a backloaded run to see at least some sort of rev-up in the last few days, not the film finally losing a lot of momentum. It's a little bit concerning to me guys.

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4 minutes ago, Eric Soprano said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 1321 14653 9.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 105

 

Comp

0.943x of F9 T-4 (6.69M)

0.393x of Black Widow T-4 (5.19M)

2.180x of The Suicide Squad T-4 (8.94M)

0.666x of Shang-Chi T-4 (5.86M)

0.926x of Venom 2 T-4 (10.74M)

 

I know some are saying this will be backloaded and that it's set for crazy walk-ups...but I would expect a backloaded run to see at least some sort of rev-up in the last few days, not the film finally losing a lot of momentum. It's a little bit concerning to me guys.

I don't love that number, but at the same time, the F9 comp did increase, so...

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23 hours ago, Eric Soprano said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 22 324 4052 8.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.715x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-12 (13.85M)

3.176x of The Conjuring 3 T-12 (31.14M)

0.383x of F9 T-12 (2.72M)

1.087x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (4.46M)

0.458x of Venom 2 T-12 (5.31M)

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 22 376 4052 9.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

Comp

0.726x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-11 (14.06M)

2.725x of The Conjuring 3 T-11 (26.71M)

0.435x of F9 T-11 (3.09M)

1.257x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (5.16M)

0.484x of Venom 2 T-11 (5.62M)

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4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Come on Menor. Look at history of Bond movies. They all had excellent previews to OW ratios

But that was also 6 years ago. Fast 6 THU was 17% of OD in 2013, hit 24% in 2021. 

 

Same way JW was 22.5% in 2015, hit 26.1% in 2018, will probably be 28-29% in 2022.

 

Bond was 19.2% in 2015, Skyfall was I guess pure midnight at 7.2% in 2012. NTTD should be around 24-25% like F9 today.

 

Though since WED will burn a bit of demand THU be deflated a bit but WED+THU should be 25%+ of OD.

 

IDK where THU is heading, I am not paying much attention, but if THU+WED are say 7.5, I will assume 

 

7.5

21

25

19 // 72.5

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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