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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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6 hours ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Stupidity. Please put the expectations of BOT back in a realistic place. Thanks.

After venom2 success, this is what I had with NTTD

5papfy.jpg

 

But after deep dive into each tracker's numbers......

5paprj.jpg

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Dune's an unknown property, so the only folks who will see this on the big screen are the die-hard film nerds and book fans. Everyone else will be staying at home and watching this on HBO Max, since it's not a big IP like Marvel or Fast & Furious and is therefore not worth the hassle. Prepare for another paltry $30M opening followed by a massive 70% drop.

 

It's why I'm not fully sure if I want to see this movie just yet. On one hard, it looks great and I would love to be part of a big fantasy phonemenon since Lord of the Rings came out just as I was born. On the other hand, this first movie is apparently just a "Part One" and doesn't tell the complete story. And that Part Two is highly unlikely to happen.

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On 10/3/2021 at 9:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

No Time to Die

Previews (T-4)

MTC1 - 48901/444590 884431.43 2110 shows

Friday (T-5)

MTC1 - 42833/626071 732110.89 3030 shows

No Time to Die

Previews + Early Shows (T-3)

MTC1 - 57013/489573 1021688.67 2463 shows (+8112)

Friday (T-4)

MTC1 - 52695/686644 891308.27 3529 shows (+9862)

Saturday(T-5)

MTC1 - 41509/740595 669335.03 3758 shows

 

Solid but not spectacular. But show counts have started to increase and I am expecting huge surge tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

No Time to Die

Previews + Early Shows (T-3)

MTC1 - 57013/489573 1021688.67 2463 shows (+8112)

Friday (T-4)

MTC1 - 52695/686644 891308.27 3529 shows (+9862)

Saturday(T-5)

MTC1 - 41509/740595 669335.03 3758 shows

 

Solid but not spectacular. But show counts have started to increase and I am expecting huge surge tomorrow. 

What is WED separately?

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No Time To Die Nationwide T-3 Days

WED - $0.65M

THU - $2.1M

FRI - $2.5M

SAT - $1.75M

SUN & Rest - $1.1M

 

Total - $8.1M

 

THU numbers are currently 68% of Venom 2 but pace is around 59% under that, so that will keep falling. I am expecting $7.25M Approx THU, and $1.25M Approx WED, giving total previews of $8.5M.

 

FRI is currently 90% of Venom 2. That would be around $23.25M, though pace is falling there as well compared to Venom 2. Assuming that 23 holds, which is unlikely, we will have $77M opening weekend approx.

 

Overall sales are roughly 3/4th of Venom 2 in US while 2x in Canada. Canada may be can go for $10M weekend depending on capacity restraints. 

 

Going forward, thinking 
8.5
22
25.5
19 // 75

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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$100 million is obviously insane but I absolutely think NTTD skewing older than VENOM bodes well for its walkups, and $7.5M in previews (ignoring Wednesday) would still be a 42% increase over SPECTRE.

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12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IIRC T-Mobile Tuesday deals are for watching the film on TUE right, not booking on TUE.

Nah it means starting tomorrow with the code you get you can buy a ticket for any showtime any day (even Dolby/Imax) for $4, so you can use it on literally any show for NTTD. For example I'm seeing NTTD on Thursday night and will be using the code for a Dolby ticket for my friend. 

Edited by AdrianL
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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

145

20757

22460*

1703

7.58%

*NOTE:  A few theaters adjusted their seat maps resulting in a net addition of seven more seats region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

157

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

132.26

 

115

1271

 

7/85

2254/3525

36.06%

 

6.65m

F9

90.48

 

200

1806

 

0/89

11678/13484

13.39%

 

6.73m

NTTD (AQP adj)

---

 

153

1681

 

0/145

20629/22310

7.53%

 

---

NTTD (F9 adj)

---

 

149

1634

 

0/124

17777/19411

8.42%

 

---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 86/1772 [4.85% sold] | 4.85% of all tickets sold

Regal:   362/7504 [4.82% sold] [+23 tickets]

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

157

21272

23153

1881

8.12%

 

 

Total Showings Added Today

12

Total Seats Added Today

693

Total Seats Sold Today

178

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-3

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II 

122.77

 

240

1511

 

11/98

2360/3871

39.03%

 

6.17m

F9

86.96

 

257

2063

 

0/122

15198/17261

11.95%

 

6.47m

NTTD (AQP adj)

---

 

174

1855

 

0/157

21148/23003

8.06%

 

---

NTTD (F9 adj)

---

 

160

1794

 

0/136

18310/20104

8.92%

 

---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 95/1882 [5.05% sold] | 5.05% of all tickets sold

Regal:   416/7882 [5.28% sold] [+54 tickets]

 

====

 

Erf. Trending in the wrong direction.

 

Well, here's hoping it's even more backloaded/walkup driven than F9...

 

(also not liking that many of the new showings over at Cinemark were in the 9:30pm and later window...)

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Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and Counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

74

11255

11649

394

3.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

394

 

Day 1 Comp

 

   %

 

Sold Day 1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

F9

100.25

 

393

393

 

0/82

12755/13148

2.99%

 

7.45m

SC

71.12

 

554

554

 

0/92

15096/15650

3.54%

 

6.26m

V2

113.22

 

348

348

 

0/127

21962/22310

1.56%

 

15.39m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 120/4349 [2.76% sold]

 

===

 

Not sure which comps to use here, so I'm cribbing off of Eric for now, minus Black Widow and The Suicide Squad.  Feel like it's gonna be a more like F9 than the CBMs, but until NTTD's number comes in this might do for now (Dune did 1.4x NTTD's Day 1, ftr).  Though as I look at it, the Venom 2 comp is a clear outlier here due to it's backloaded-for-a-CBM nature, so I might drop it.

 

Still seeing a fairly extreme PLF skew, though not quite as skewed as it was this morning ("only" 78% of all ticket sales are some sort of PLF).  So that makes me concerned about what's gonna happen when the most desirable PLF seats are snatched up.  Kiiiiinda seeing this with the early access shows for NTTD, which barely moved at a couple of theaters today.


All things considered, a solid start, IMO.  Now just have to see how it plays after the fan rush is over.

Edited by Porthos
Put in the wrong comp for V2 and F9. Derp
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5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IIRC T-Mobile Tuesday deals are for watching the film on TUE right, not booking on TUE.

 

No, it's for booking any day opening week (since showings have to be available on Atom), but not until you get the single use code (which is Tuesday - aka today)...

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17 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Comparison of initial sets at my Cinemarks:

 

1st local

Venom 2 4 screens - 20 showings (final ended at 28 showings or 5.5 screens)

NTTD 3 screens - 12 showings

Halloween 2 screens - 9 showings

Dune 2 screens - 8 showings

 

2nd local

Venom 2 4 screens - 20 showings (final also ended at 28 showings or 5.5 screens)

NTTD 3 screens - 11 showings (due to timing of 1st showings) - interesting Saturday only gets 9 showings for presales, so they may make swaps on screen sizes, still...

Halloween 1 screen - 5 showings

Dune 2 screens - 8 showings

 

As we get more competition, it's gonna get tighter for getting full clear outs, and theaters become more cautious at the presale stage til the movies prove they need the space...

 

Edit to Add:  The Last Duel gets 1 screen and THREE total showings for planned presales at 1st local and 1 screen and 4 total showings for planned presales at the 2nd local...so they aren't thinking breakout right now...

 

Edit to add: (So did 2nd, so that's added below) So, 1st and 2nd Cinemark set, so I'm gonna post so you can see possible show growth (it's not as big as some might want - Venom really did get in the way)...

 

NOTE - VENOM KEEEPS SOME PLF!!!  Which is what I said would happen, but it kept more than I thought - Venom keeps 1 FULL PLF screen and Bond gets the other, so it's a true split:)...this could become a trend in the Cinemark chain...

 

NTTD 4 screens - 16 showings...so, it got 1 extra screen and 4 extra showings - 1 PLF screen, 3 regular - 12 fewer overall showings than Venom and it only gets 1/2 the PLF

 

Venom 3 screens - 18 showings - 1 PLF, 2 regular

 

Addams Family, Many Saints of Newark, and Shang Chi keep a screen each, and then there's private watch and foreign movies for the other 2 screens...

 

2nd Cinemark

 

NTTD 4 screens - 16 showings (again 12 less than Venom) no PLF at this site, but it will do 3d, but NTTD has no 3d showings...

 

Venom 3 screens - 15 showings (1 premium 3d showing, the rest normal) 

 

Addams Family 1.5 screens, Many Saints .5 screens (the other 1/2 of the AF screen), Shang Chi 1 screen, and foreign films on the other 2 screens...

 

So, no huge showings growth in the Cinemark chain at my locals for NTTD, and split PLF where available - but that seems on point b/c NTTD is preselling the least at this big 3 chain vs the others...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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6 hours ago, Porthos said:

Not sure which comps to use here, so I'm cribbing off of Eric for now, minus Black Widow and The Suicide Squad.  Feel like it's gonna be a more like F9 than the CBMs, but until NTTD's number comes in this might do for now (Dune did 1.4x NTTD's Day 1, ftr).  Though as I look at it, the Venom 2 comp is a clear outlier here due to it's backloaded-for-a-CBM nature, so I might drop it.

I think that Dune's audience would be more likely to prebuy than something like F&F, which probably draws more general audiences. 

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I think Venom 2 as comp should be pretty much discarded for anything, except if you are looking into pace and stuff. The first few days of V2 were really hurt by date issue, its bottom part of U-curve was better due to those mixing sales.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What is WED separately?

NTTD Wed early shows - 15158/56345 282575.36 185 shows. 

 

I think it will at least double this number by the time shows end. I was planning to track it separately tomorrow to get final number. Thursday I will just track thursday previews separately. 

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22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

It’s not an AMC exclusive. They don’t have advance tickets for Halloween Kills yet either. Might just be a thing where they only update showtimes on certain days. @DAJK @Tinalera probably know how the chain likes to do things

Cineplex in my experience, often doesnt do a huge advance on season tickets (at least in my Toronto screens) unless they are huge Tentpole type films. It almost seems like alot of times they aren't sure till anywhere from a week to a few days how many seats are available (my speculation). Its even why I hesitate to do a friday count until like Wed before because showings will go from 1-4 showings a theatre on Tuesday to like 10-15 on Wed. Thats how close the like to cut it. Even preview sales they seem to add showings here and there up to the Thursday. 

 

I know its disconcerting "Click here for advance tickets" Okay, Toronto. "No showings on Oct 14 for Halloween kills" what isn't said is (at least not right now but check back in a few days!). Wed Seems to be the day that Cineplex does their updates, so Im thinking Halloween Kills SHOULD start showing for preview sales tomorrow (I hope lol)

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