The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It was Bond. BOT is doing that thing that won't let me post pictures, but yesterday morning when I last looked they only had 4, 6, 7:30, 8, 8:30, and 10 (so six, not five), and now they have 24 at Regal Oakwood 18 in Hollywood

 

Your 18 only had 1 screen for presales...damn, they set their real schedule late, then, this week...hmmm...wonder why a Regal waited so long...

[Menor the Destroyer]

Very soft start for Bond today. Will get full numbers later but hoping for 75-80k at MTC2, that will require significant acceleration relative to comps from where it is now.

[titanic2187]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It was Bond. BOT is doing that thing that won't let me post pictures, but yesterday morning when I last looked they only had 4, 6, 7:30, 8, 8:30, and 10 (so six, not five), and now they have 24 at Regal Oakwood 18 in Hollywood

Hope this explain the sub-par gain in MTC2

[WrathOfHan]

Final Sales:

 

No Time to Die:

Weds Early Access IMAX: 74/372

4:00 IMAX: 17/372 (+5)

5:00 Dolby: 49/236 (+14)

6:00: 3/54 (New)

7:00: 22/107 (+9)

8:00 IMAX: 21/372 (+2)

9:00 Dolby: 68/236 (+15)

Total: 254/1,749 (+48/+54) (186/1,377 without Early Access)

 

Comps:

 

40% of Black Widow (5.3M)

50% of Shang-Chi (4.4M)

73% of Venom 2 (8.2M)

92% of F9 (6.4M)

121% of AQP2 (5.8M)

172% of The Suicide Squad (7.1M)

339% of Old (5.1M)

508% of Snake Eyes (7.1M)

 

One more standard show got added for 6PM, but that's impacting sales very little. This is a weak finish given how well early trends were, and I don't expect walkups for later showings to improve much when the first IMAX show has only gained 5 seats from yesterday. It's trending closest to TSS and Snake Eyes with weak day-of sales interestingly enough. My expected range is 5.8M-7.4M, and I'll predict 6.3M. IMAX and Dolby sales look a lot stronger tomorrow while standard shows are pretty empty.

 

I'll update Lamb closer to its start time and see if NTTD has gained any extra ground.

[el sid]

NTTD counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 281 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 92 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 340 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 32 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 106 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 769 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 758 (15 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.378 (and 3.304 with Wednesday).

Up 20% since yesterday.
Comps: AQP II (4.8M from previews) had on Thursday for Thursday 1.582 sold tickets = 7.2M or with Wednesday 10.0M,

Hobbs & Shaw (5.8M) had on the same day 2.078 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters = 6.6M or 9.2M with Wednesday,
and Ford v Ferrari (2.1M) had 745 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters = 6.7M or 9.3M with Wednesday.
Would averagely be ca. 7M.

NTTD counted today at 10am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 408 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 366 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 123 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 74 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 115 (15 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 850 (14 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 779 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.715.

Up 14% since yesterday.
Comps: F9 (22.8M true Friday) had on Thursday for Friday 3.585 sold tickets = 17.3M true Friday for NTTD,
Hobbs & Shaw (17.8M) had also on Thursday for Friday 2.465 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters = 19.6M,
and Ford v Ferrari (8.9M) had 1.125 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters = 21.5M.
 

Indeed it lost a bit in the comps but it's still looking good for NTTD. Normally I would say it will have even more walk-ups than F9 but Idk if as many Bond fans will visit the theaters as usual. So today I say 75M.
PS: Further likes later .

Edited October 7, 2021 by el sid

[titanic2187]

Weaker number across the board, Will NTTD cancel the feel good moment last week?

[Cmasterclay]

Probably worth keeping in mind that Bond outside Skyfall usually finishes somewhere between 8th and 14th in a normal year domestically, both OW and in total, since the mid 80s. And Skyfall was just a massive exception with the Adele song, the 50th celebration, the Oscar buzz,  Anton Chigurgh playing the Joker, etc. 75m OW and 220 domestic would be on the high end of the Bond ceiling in modern times.  Not trying to lower expectations, but just saying. This isn't ever the mega movie of the year.

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Weaker number across the board, Will NTTD cancel the feel good moment last week?

 

For the board, yes, but it shouldn't...

 

Maybe it's b/c Shawn popped tracking up from the reasonable $56M floor, but going to $71M as the floor (and something like $83M as the midpoint projection - aka, the expectation for the weekend) based on Venom's box office made little sense b/c the crossover between Venom's and Bond's audiences is so small.

 

Maybe I should have made this point earlier, but it would have been the same as looking at Addams Family's $17M and saying "oh crap, I need to drop the floor $20M" - when your movies have such differing GA demo appeals, one movie's wildly positive result might float everything a little, but not +30% or more...

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	178	21896	24718	2822	11.42%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	233
Total Seats Sold Today	556

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	67.06		929	4208		1/188	20777/24985	16.84%		5.90m
V2	55.04		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		6.38m

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	116.51		523	2393		21/125	2643/5036	47.42%		5.86m
F9	91.27		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		6.79m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		554	2788		1/178	21780/24567	11.35%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		490	2646		1/157	19023/21669	12.21%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 186/1882 [9.88% sold] | 6.59% of all tickets sold

Regal:     610/8058 [7.57% sold] [+130 tickets]

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:00pm - 12:35pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	178	21593	24718	3125	12.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

303

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	64.54		634	4842		1/192	20608/25450	19.03%		5.68m
V2	48.28		1346	6473		3/247	27183/33656	19.23%		5.60m

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	85.69		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		6.37m
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		259	2905		1/157	18764/21669	13.41%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

 

Matinee: 228/1882 [12.11% sold] | 7.30% of all tickets sold

Regal:     610/8058 [7.57% sold] [+130 tickets]

 

=====

 

Ooooooooof.

 

The one slight bright spot is indeed the F9 comp (AQP II comp removed due to not having mid-day data for it).  On the other hand, even there NTTD only did a little more than 50% of F9's Mid-Day pace which doesn't exactly suggest it's gonna follow it's sale pattern all that much today.

 

Wish I had better news for y'alls, but the data is the data.

Edited October 8, 2021 by Porthos

[SnokesLegs]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Probably worth keeping in mind that Bond outside Skyfall usually finishes somewhere between 8th and 14th in a normal year domestically, both OW and in total, since the mid 80s. And Skyfall was just a massive exception with the Adele song, the 50th celebration, the Oscar buzz,  Anton Chigurgh playing the Joker, etc. 75m OW and 220 domestic would be on the high end of the Bond ceiling in modern times.  Not trying to lower expectations, but just saying. This isn't ever the mega movie of the year.

Yep, likewise not wanting to throw cold water on things, but people should definitely lower their expectations from the $100m figure that we’ve seen getting thrown around. Anything above Spectre’s $70m opening would be fantastic. $100m would be a shock.

 

I feel like the UK/Euro opening has misled a few people into expecting a similar US opening, but Bond has never been on the same level in the US. 

[Old Spice]

Bond doing great in Salt Lake at the Sugarhouse Cinemark I follow. 10 showtimes, 44.3% sold.

 

4:00 PM: 39/106

5:15: 27/62

6:30: 37/46

7:00: 27/48

7:40: 79/106

8:00: 0/46

8:55: 32/62

9:25: 9/48

10:10: 17/46

10:45: 7/48

 

Total 274/618 as of 1:40 PM I expect those evening shows to fill up and put this over 400 by the time all is said and done. The only comp I have for the pandemic era is TSS which finished somewhere around 250, IIRC.

 

Friday shows are solid, if not spectacular.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Yep, likewise not wanting to throw cold water on things, but people should definitely lower their expectations from the $100m figure that we’ve seen getting thrown around. Anything above Spectre’s $70m opening would be fantastic. $100m would be a shock.

 

I feel like the UK/Euro opening has misled a few people into expecting a similar US opening, but Bond has never been on the same level in the US. 

 

That 100m figure was from exactly one news article and was instantly discounted by practically everyone here.

 

I don't think anyone is using here is using it as any sort of expectations bar.  

 

(and if they are, they shouldn't have been)

[Cap]

No Time To Die Comps

 

Regal: Fox Run Mall

Total: 175/772

 

BW: 436/858 || 40.14% [5.3M]

SC: 405/780 || 43.20% [3.8M]

VLTBC: 231/894 || 75.75% [8.78M]

 

Average Comp: 5.96M

 

Falmouth Flagship

Total: 113/268

 

BW: 252/399 || 63.16% [8.34M]

SC: 154/218 || 70.64% [6.21M]

VLTBC: 82/191 || 137.80% [15.99M]

 

Average Comp: 10.18M

 

Eh,

 

 

I would say that 6-8M feels like a good guess from these numbers.  (God I love starting over.  Gonna take another three months to get this back to an art form.)

[Brainbug]

37 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Probably worth keeping in mind that Bond outside Skyfall usually finishes somewhere between 8th and 14th in a normal year domestically, both OW and in total, since the mid 80s. And Skyfall was just a massive exception with the Adele song, the 50th celebration, the Oscar buzz,  Anton Chigurgh playing the Joker, etc. 75m OW and 220 domestic would be on the high end of the Bond ceiling in modern times.  Not trying to lower expectations, but just saying. This isn't ever the mega movie of the year.

 

Agreed. I do think the Craig Bond Movies (especially Skyfall and Spectre) kind of skewed the expectations of many people regarding the question of how much it "should" earn to a higher level than what Bond movies traditionally are able to achieve.

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales*	% Sold
T-0	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	7	73	11,145	698	414	6.26%
		Phoenix	7	59	7,197	727	412	10.10%
		Raleigh	7	39	4,288	824	430	19.22%
	No Time to Die Total		21	171	22,630	2,249	1,256	9.94%

*New sales since Sunday morning

 

Looks like pace has fallen off a little the past few days.  I haven't been on much so I'm not sure if this is widespread, but I think we're expecting this to be much more walk-up heavy given the target audience is a little older.   Showtimes had a huge jump in a lot of theaters; I'm interested to see how this one stacks up with the longer runtime.  I just now realized I never posted my showtimes report last week so I'll need to post both tomorrow morning.

 

NTtD comps

F9 - .736x (5.22m)

TSS - 1.775x (7.28m)

Venom - .6x (6.97m)

 

Average - 6.5m (before adding Wednesday)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Late	F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	1,155	302	13.90%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,498	1,150	188	13.53%
		Raleigh	8	46	4,985	1,531	289	30.71%
	F9: The Fast Saga Total		21	151	21,795	3,836	779	17.60%
	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	7	73	11,145	860	162	7.72%
		Phoenix	7	59	7,197	834	107	11.59%
		Raleigh	7	40	4,417	1,037	213	23.48%
	No Time to Die Total		21	172	22,759	2,731	482	12.00%
	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
	Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	30	5,373	665	265	12.38%
		Phoenix	7	31	4,202	648	182	15.42%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,464	645	244	18.62%
	Suicide Squad Total		21	90	13,039	1,958	691	15.02%

 

Did another run at T-1 hour (further back for Phoenix's time zone) with some comps.  New sales are since this morning. As you can tell, it's not doing as well with same-day sales as others have.  NTtD's+21% is behind F9's +25%, SC's +36% and not even close to TSS's +55%.  New forecast is a little depressing after this morning's update.

 

T-1 hour comps

F9 - .712x (5.05m)

SC - .67x (5.86m)

TSS - 1.39x (5.72m)

Average - 5.55m

[Menor the Destroyer]

Bond MTC2 at 41081 tickets sold in the run that just finished. SC and F9 were in the 75k range at this point. It has sold about half of what those two did since last night from some rough extrapolations. The last hour was closer to 55-60% of F9/SC pace (they were almost identical on the final day). I guess that can go up to 70% for the rest of the day just from the numbers already being kinda low, it won't be that hard to increase them. That will give it a 75k finish. Just making a guess, MTC1 perhaps 120-125k. Overall I think pure Thu previews are heading for the 6-6.5m range accounting for Canada. Could be 7 even, I don't really have a good sense of just how much Canada's overperformance will add. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by Menor

[John Marston]

Wow so Bond might underperform? Looks like older movie goers still aren’t ready to go back 

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Bond MTC2 at 41081 tickets sold in the run that just finished. SC and F9 were in the 75k range at this point. It has sold about half of what those two did since last night from some rough extrapolations. The last hour was closer to 55-60% of F9/SC pace (they were almost identical on the final day). I guess that can go up to 70% for the rest of the day just from the numbers already being kinda low, it won't be that hard to increase them. That will give it a 75k finish. Just making a guess, MTC1 perhaps 120-125k. Overall I think pure Thu previews are heading for the 6-6.5m range accounting for Canada. 

How much do we think Wednesday would add to that?

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, John Marston said:

Wow so Bond might underperform? Looks like older movie goers still aren’t ready to go back 

Still on track to around 70M or a little more it seems, just doesn't look like it's going to overperform like some expect.

 

Still, anything above Spectre is everything but an underperformance.

 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

How much do we think Wednesday would add to that?

Charlie did the calculation yesterday night, should be about 1.1-1.2 million.