The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

I never said these kinds of movies will open to those levels or need to open at those levels. I'm just saying that Bond failing to crack 70M is concerning for something like Gucci or Belfast because Bond has more going for it and the latter films may generate poor box office results below expectations and their comparables.

? your point ? even if bond had an ow of say 120 mill, would that mean that Gucci or Belfast would have good box office  ? hell no.No matter what ,these movie always had a very decent change to underperform, it has nothing to do with bond underperforming or overperforming.Also it seems to me that 60-70 mill is the average ow for bond other than skyfall, so idk where these ''underperformance " came from.

Edited October 7, 2021 by john2000

[Legion Again]

Even if Bond did 90 I think Duel/Gucci/Richard kind of stuff would be doomed, so that’s one reason I’m not reading too much into this.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[Cmasterclay]

Last Duel and Belfast have major fundamental problems that would have cost them even if Bond opens to 200m OW. I maintain West Side Story and Gucci will be hits if they are actually good. Unfortunately, their trailers make it look like they might totally suck.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

208

653

31.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

152

1451

10.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
725	95	10415	6.96%	15	53

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 646

 

AMCs sold	571
Cinemarks sold	43
Regals sold	109
Harkins sold	2

 

Shang-Chi comp: 11.52M

Black Widow day 3 comp: 10.26M

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

219

653

33.54%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

156

1451

10.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
768	43	10415	7.37%	15	53

 

AMCs sold	591
Cinemarks sold	45
Regals sold	124
Harkins sold	8

 

Shang-Chi comp: 10.45M

Black Widow day 4 comp: 9.98M

[john2000]

Also how about , for once we stop the doom and gloom where in this case is not justifiable and just wait for the results  ? seems like good idea to me

[Ronin46]

Shawn's (BoPro) predictions are 70 - 105 and 84(tentatively) which will be adjusted later today.

[Legion Again]

Also the weekend forecast is out from BOP, at 70-… 105????

 

I appreciate the work that Shawn and co do, but they have been really out to lunch on the last few blockbusters. SC 45-60 when it was pretty much locked for 60+. V2 60-80 when it was pretty clearly looking at more like 70-90. Now NTTD with a massively wide range — that still has a good chance not to include the true number.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-15 days Thursday(36 showings): 1096(+165)/11568(+481) in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 17.50M

Black Widow comp: 7.33M

 

T-16 days Friday(85 showings): 1062(+121)/29930(+609) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 70.69M

Black Widow comp: 23.51M

 

T-17 days Saturday(82 showings): 466/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-18 days Sunday(67 showings): 147/23463 in 12 theaters

 

Unsurprisingly, it's very frontloaded. But Thursday and Friday are putting up fantastic numbers

Dune Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday(36 showings): 1244(+148)/11568 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 17.80M

Black Widow comp: 8.09M

 

T-15 days Friday(85 showings): 1209(+147)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 68.75M

Black Widow comp: 25.75M

 

T-16 days Saturday(82 showings): 550(+84)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-17 days Sunday(67 showings): 180(+33)/23463 in 12 theaters

 

Still very strong here. Almost caught up to BW Friday in 4 days, whereas BW has had 13 days of sales at this point.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Also the weekend forecast is out from BOP, at 70-… 105????

 

I appreciate the work that Shawn and co do, but they have been really out to lunch on the last few blockbusters. SC 45-60 when it was pretty much locked for 60+. V2 60-80 when it was pretty clearly looking at more like 70-90. Now NTTD with a massively wide range — that still has a good chance not to include the true number.

i mean for all we know it could really hit 80 mill ow, we have no idea what its multi is going to be ,but yeah this is not the right range, more like 60-80 imo

[Cmasterclay]

I totally respect the opinions in this thread, by the way. I just think people, maybe because Venom, are fundamentally expecting too much for a non-Skyfall James Bond movie. I said last month "Logan numbers with a smaller opening and better legs, so mid 70s/230." Now I'm more mid 60s and 215, but that's barely a standard deviation away.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I totally respect the opinions in this thread, by the way. I just think people, maybe because Venom, are fundamentally expecting too much for a non-Skyfall James Bond movie. I said last month "Logan numbers with a smaller opening and better legs, so mid 70s/230." Now I'm more mid 60s and 215, but that's barely a standard deviation away.

people forget that spectre had a final dom total of 200 mill in the dom market, bond isnt HUGE in the us (at least that how it seems to me)

Edited October 7, 2021 by john2000

[john2000]

again tell me how 60-70 ow is dissapointing when literally the current iterations ow were 

 

1. SKYFALL ($88M) 2. SPECTRE ($70M) 3. QUANTUM OF SOLACE ($67M) 4. DIE ANOTHER DAY ($47M) 5. CASINO ROYALE ($40M)

[TwoMisfits]

All this weekend says is that when everyone got on Top Gun 2 for moving to Memorial Day after the big supers opens...maybe that studio knew what it was doing.

 

I always loved the move...if Bond actually hits my high 50s/low 60s expectations, I'll love the Memorial Day weekend move more, b/c it gives the movie a chance since I expect it, like Bond, to be a "blue hair" drawing movie, that has the older among us bringing the younger (or not at all), and not what usually happens with most big blockbusters, with the young bringing the older (or not at all)...

Edited October 7, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[ThomasNicole]

To me the way this discussion is going, this will be another BW situation.

 

Pretty strong number overall that still are partially treated like a huge disappointment because of expectations.

 

I understand that presales ended up being way more frontloaded than expected for a franchise usually backloaded, but it's still pointing to around 70M, Spectre did that even before pandemic, why now it's not good enough? I don't think it's fair treating a number like that as a proof of how bad things will be for other adult oriented movies simply because it's not a bad number, period.

 

Things like that happen with presales, it's up to us to accept that numbers maybe won't meet our expectations or predictions, yes it's frustrating but they could still be good numbers anyway and should be seeing this way, especially during these times.

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[Inceptionzq]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

All this weekend says is that when everyone got on Top Gun 2 for moving to Memorial Day

Honestly I’m glad I get to see the trailer more. 

Seriously, I don’t know I’ll actually go see the movie, but the trailer in IMAX is awesome.

[Old Spice]

19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I totally respect the opinions in this thread, by the way. I just think people, maybe because Venom, are fundamentally expecting too much for a non-Skyfall James Bond movie. I said last month "Logan numbers with a smaller opening and better legs, so mid 70s/230." Now I'm more mid 60s and 215, but that's barely a standard deviation away.

 

I honestly think 65/215 would be a FANTASTIC result in this market. Case counts and hospitalizations have fallen quite a bit from their peak, but they're still pretty damn high and that and all the talk about waning immunity are going to have an outsized effect on a demo like Bond's. l also think there's a case to be made that once you stop doing something that was once a habit... like moviegoing... it doesn't just reflexively snap back. It takes time and a conscious intention. My first trip back to a theater was for In the Heights in June, and the minute I walked into the lobby and smelled the buttered popcorn, it was almost like Kenneth Branagh's wistful "Home!" in Dunkirk, but not everyone is like that.

 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, A Star is Orm said:

 

I honestly think 65/215 would be a FANTASTIC result in this market. Case counts and hospitalizations have fallen quite a bit from their peak, but they're still pretty damn high and that and all the talk about waning immunity are going to have an outsized effect on a demo like Bond's. l also think there's a case to be made that once you stop doing something that was once a habit... like moviegoing... it doesn't just reflexively snap back. It takes time and a conscious intention. My first trip back to a theater was for In the Heights in June, and the minute I walked into the lobby and smelled the buttered popcorn, it was almost like Kenneth Branagh's wistful "Home!" in Dunkirk, but not everyone is like that.

 

And also a dom final total of 215 if it happens would be bigger tham spectres so......

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:00pm - 12:35pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	178	21593	24718	3125	12.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

303

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	64.54		634	4842		1/192	20608/25450	19.03%		5.68m
V2	48.28		1346	6473		3/247	27183/33656	19.23%		5.60m

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	85.69		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		6.37m
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		259	2905		1/157	18764/21669	13.41%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

 

Matinee: 228/1882 [12.11% sold] | 7.30% of all tickets sold

Regal:     610/8058 [7.57% sold] [+130 tickets]

 

=====

 

Ooooooooof.

 

The one slight bright spot is indeed the F9 comp (AQP II comp removed due to not having mid-day data for it).  On the other hand, even there NTTD only did a little more than 50% of F9's Mid-Day pace which doesn't exactly suggest it's gonna follow it's sale pattern all that much today.

 

Wish I had better news for y'alls, but the data is the data.

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:25pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4*	178	20811	24718	3907*	15.81%

* NOTE: I am now becoming more and more certain that the local Studio Movie Grill is capping at some point — I just have no idea where they are capping. Which in turn is almost certainly affecting the total number of seats sold.

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day	3
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	782

 

T-0  Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC [4:40-5:30]	66.02		1076	5918		3/196	19785/25703	23.02%		5.81m
V2 [3:50-4:35]	49.82		1346	7842		3/249	25893/33735	23.25%		5.78m

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	82.57		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		6.14m
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		734	3639		3/157	18030/21669	16.79%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

 

Matinee:  485/1882 [25.77% sold] | 12.14% of all tickets sold

Regal:      851/8058 [10.56% sold] [+241 tickets]

 

===

 

Did some math, and if I entirely remove SMG from my comps, it cuts off about 0.5m from all my comps.  I'm loathe to do this though as the local SMG is one of the better selling theaters in town, so I might just have to live with it.  FWIW, this might be effecting NTTD more than either V2 or SC as it has one more showing tonight.  Still, just gonna have to roll with the punches until I figure out what the hell they're capping at.

 

Aside from that?  Eh, good enough I suppose.  Not breaking out, but not flatlining either.  Since Canada is doing gangbusters that might be counteracting the extra showing I have from SMG.  So let's say 5.9m +/- .3m in previews. 

Edited October 8, 2021 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:25pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4*	178	20811	24718	3907*	15.81%

* NOTE: I am now becoming more and more certain that the local Studio Movie Grill is capping at some point — I just have no idea where they are capping. Which in turn is almost certainly affecting the total number of seats sold.

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day	3
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	782

 

T-0  Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC [4:40-5:30]	66.02		1076	5918		3/196	19785/25703	23.02%		5.81m
V2 [3:50-4:35]	49.82		1346	7842		3/249	25893/33735	23.25%		5.78m

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	82.57		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		6.14m
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		734	3639		3/157	18030/21669	16.79%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

 

Matinee:  485/1882 [25.77% sold] | 12.14% of all tickets sold

Regal:      851/8058 [10.56% sold] [+241 tickets]

 

===

 

Did some math, and if I entirely remove SMG from my comps, it cuts off about 0.5m from all my comps.  I'm loathe to do this though as the local SMG is one of the better selling theaters in town, so I might just have to live with it.  FWIW, this might be effecting NTTD more than either V2 or SC as it has one more showing tonight.  Still, just gonna have to roll with the punches until I figure out what the hell they're capping at.

 

Aside from that?  Eh, good enough I suppose.  Not breaking out, but not flatlining either.  Since Canada is doing gangbusters that might be counteracting the extra showing I have from SMG.  So let's say 5.9m +/- .3m in previews. 

This is including early shows yesterday right? Then it definitely fell off after looking promising on Tuesday. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:25pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4*	178	20811	24718	3907*	15.81%

* NOTE: I am now becoming more and more certain that the local Studio Movie Grill is capping at some point — I just have no idea where they are capping. Which in turn is almost certainly affecting the total number of seats sold.

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day	3
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	782

 

T-0  Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC [4:40-5:30]	66.02		1076	5918		3/196	19785/25703	23.02%		5.81m
V2 [3:50-4:35]	49.82		1346	7842		3/249	25893/33735	23.25%		5.78m

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	82.57		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		6.14m
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		734	3639		3/157	18030/21669	16.79%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

 

Matinee:  485/1882 [25.77% sold] | 12.14% of all tickets sold

Regal:      851/8058 [10.56% sold] [+241 tickets]

 

===

 

Did some math, and if I entirely remove SMG from my comps, it cuts off about 0.5m from all my comps.  I'm loathe to do this though as the local SMG is one of the better selling theaters in town, so I might just have to live with it.  FWIW, this might be effecting NTTD more than either V2 or SC as it has one more showing tonight.  Still, just gonna have to roll with the punches until I figure out what the hell they're capping at.

 

Aside from that?  Eh, good enough I suppose.  Not breaking out, but not flatlining either.  Since Canada is doing gangbusters that might be counteracting the extra showing I have from SMG.  So let's say 5.9m +/- .3m in previews. 

Wait I thought F9 sold more than 1000 in the second half of the day? 491 seems like first half.