The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

Bond (as of a couple hours ago, I am reporting it late) was at 144149 tickets sold or $1666713. It improved the pace to 60-65% of F9. If that continues I expect a 190-195k final. However yesterday late night was really bad compared to F9 while the afternoon was the same 60%, then it could hit that same 175k. We will see where it lands. That range is 70-80% of SC Friday, so fairly wide possibilities still. My gut is still at 18m but I will refrain from a projection without seeing the MTC1 trajectory. 

Edited October 9, 2021 by Menor

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, Menor said:

Bond (as of a couple hours ago, I am reporting it late) was at 144149 tickets sold or $1666713. It improved the pace to 60-65% of F9. If that continues I expect a 190-195k final. However yesterday late night was really bad compared to F9 while the afternoon was the same 60%, then it could hit that same 175k. We will see where it lands. That range is 70-80% of SC Friday, so fairly wide possibilities still. My gut is still at 18m but I will refrain from a projection without seeing the MTC1 trajectory. 

 

So is this thing even going to hit $60M?

 

[Legion Again]

Considering it is summer vs schooltime, the afternoon vs night pace may be that a greater % of F9 pace is for afternoon shows whereas more of NTTD afternoon sales is nighttime showings that then have less room to grow.

[Legion Again]

70-80% of SC Friday sounds miserable, that is 14.5-16.5. Is the gut 18 taking the high end+Canada overindex?

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

So is this thing even going to hit $60M?

 

Sure, it has a good chance. Depends on the night pace but it seems like it should happen, imo. Canada should add a good amount. 

Edited October 9, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

My target for 60M is a 17.5 Tfri and I think I would take 17-17.5 from what we are seeing in MTC2, but a lot could change based on other chains.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

70-80% of SC Friday sounds miserable, that is 14.5-16.5. Is the gut 18 taking the high end+Canada overindex?

Yes, I am feeling the high end is more likely. 

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 Friday BO

NTTD OD -  247965/882999 3729533.77 5048 shows

Venom 2 Day 8 -136327/658055 1786795.07 4719 shows

 

NTTD had another disappointing day. It barely did slightly more than 2x the PS number yesterday. I think Charlie will be really close. 

 

Venom 2 had very good increase from mediocre thursday. I would say 8.5m 2nd friday. Still not a great hold. 

 

I dont think even saturday is worth tracking. It will be predictable for sure.  

 

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/7/2021 at 11:24 PM, Eric Safin said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	614	4268	14.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 57

 

Comp

0.774x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-7 (15M)

1.754x of The Conjuring 3 T-7 (17.2M)

0.581x of F9 T-7 (4.13M)

1.479x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (6.07M)

0.591x of Venom 2 T-7 (6.86M)

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	680	4429	15.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 66

 

Comp

0.757x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-6 (14.67M)

1.627x of The Conjuring 3 T-6 (15.95M)

0.596x of F9 T-6 (4.23M)

1.475x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (6.05M)

0.609x of Venom 2 T-6 (7.06M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/7/2021 at 11:40 PM, Eric Safin said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	638	6716	9.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 62

 

Comp

0.345x of Black Widow T-14 (4.55M)

2.426x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (9.95M)

0.719x of Shang-Chi T-14 (6.33M)

1.008x of Venom 2 T-14 (11.69M)

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	674	6716	10.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp

0.859x of F9 T-13 (6.1M)

0.352x of Black Widow T-13 (4.65M)

2.451x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (10.05M)

0.716x of Shang-Chi T-13 (6.3M)

0.998x of Venom 2 T-13 (11.58M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	674	6716	10.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 674

 

Comp

0.859x of F9 T-13 (6.1M)

0.352x of Black Widow T-13 (4.65M)

2.451x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (10.05M)

0.716x of Shang-Chi T-13 (6.3M)

0.998x of Venom 2 T-13 (11.58M)

I think you put the wrong number in sold today. Should be 36 sold today? I did a double take at first seeing that 674 thinking that Dune just exploded off the face of the planet lmao. 

Edited October 9, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I dont think even saturday is worth tracking. It will be predictable for sure. 

SAT PS for NTTD will help if possible.

[Porthos]

On 10/8/2021 at 1:38 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	11219	11831	612	5.17%

 

Total Showtimes Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	182
Total Seats Sold Today	69

 

Day 4 Comp

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	104.97		34	583		0/92	13400/13983	4.17%		7.80m
SC	63.29		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		5.57m
V2	107.56		62	569		0/150	24672/25241	2.25%		12.48m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

1.089x of NTTD after Day 4 (???)

 

Regal: 161/4531 [3.55% sold] [+14 tickets]

 

===

 

Apologies for the delay, but internet was down for a while.  Aside from that, turned out to be a rather nice day in Sacto, all things considered. 

 

Also nice?  Gonna switch to T-x comps starting tomorrow.  SC will remain unchanged, as it had the same number of days of pre-sales, but both the F9 and V2 comps will get a hatchet taken to them, so keep that in mind.

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	11185	11831	646	5.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	78.46		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		4.86m
SC	60.71		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		5.34m
V2	66.60		92	970		0/155	24891/25861	3.75%		7.73m

PRE-SALE NOTE: NTTD tickets have been on sale for two days more than Dune while Venom: Let There Be Carnage has been on sale for five more days than Dune

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	60.12		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		4.47m
Dune (adj)	---		32	591		0/65	9808/10399	5.68%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9 tickets have been on sale for five more days than Dune' s tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 168/4531 [3.71% sold] [+7 tickets]

 

===

 

As expected, everything aside from the Shang-Chi comp took a massive hit today from the shift to T-x comps. That's what happens when some films had nearly a week more of pre-sales.  The interesting comp is the No Time to Die one (using the 6.2m reported preview number, ftr) which only has a two day difference in pre-sales.  But at these low numbers, even that matters.

Edited October 13, 2021 by Porthos

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Halloween Kills presales near me continue to remain quite staggering. Very impressive since the lack of large format and limited showtimes

 

Thursday:

Cinemark 730 (54), 1015 (28) (82 total)

AMC: 7 (58)

 

Friday:

Cinemark: 310 (1), 6 (2), 850 (25) (28 total)

AMC:

410 (5), 710 (79) (84 total)

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, Eric Safin said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	680	4429	15.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 66

 

Comp

0.757x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-6 (14.67M)

1.627x of The Conjuring 3 T-6 (15.95M)

0.596x of F9 T-6 (4.23M)

1.475x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (6.05M)

0.609x of Venom 2 T-6 (7.06M)

 

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

The Halloween Kills presales near me continue to remain quite staggering. Very impressive since the lack of large format and limited showtimes

 

Thursday:

Cinemark 730 (54), 1015 (28) (82 total)

AMC: 7 (58)

 

Friday:

Cinemark: 310 (1), 6 (2), 850 (25) (28 total)

AMC:

410 (5), 710 (79) (84 total)

I know it’s early and I’ve not been looking at this thread much since Candyman really lol. But could this point towards a $30m opening? 

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

I know it’s early and I’ve not been looking at this thread much since Candyman really lol. But could this point towards a $30m opening? 

BOP is on 40-55 and that seems quite reasonable to me for now.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	11219	11831	612	5.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	78.46		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		4.86m
SC	60.71		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		5.34m
V2	66.60		92	970		0/155	24891/25861	3.75%		7.73m

PRE-SALE NOTE: NTTD tickets have been on sale for two days more than Dune while Venom: Let There Be Carnage has been on sale for five more days than Dune

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	60.12		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		4.47m
Dune (adj)	---		32	591		0/65	9808/10399	5.68%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9 tickets have been on sale for five more days than Dune' s tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 168/4531 [3.71% sold] [+7 tickets]

 

===

 

As expected, everything aside from the Shang-Chi comp took a massive hit today from the shift to T-x comps. That's what happens when some films had nearly a week more of pre-sales.  The interesting comp is the No Time to Die one (using the 6.2m reported preview number, ftr) which only has a two day difference in pre-sales.  But at these low numbers, even that matters.

For NTTD comp to be $4.8M this early is no good. Sacramento I suppose is fairly big city and considering how great Demon Slayer sell here there are many cine buffs. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For NTTD comp to be $4.8M this early is no good. Sacramento I suppose is fairly big city and considering how great Demon Slayer sell here there are many cine buffs. 

I can assure you that the connection between Demon Slayer and "cine buffs" is very low.

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

SAT PS for NTTD will help if possible.

I dont have it. For some reason MTC1 is also not working this morning. I wonder my days of tracking is done. 

 

My instinct says it will have weaker increase than Venom 2 last week as walkups are horrible for NTTD. I would say 15% increase and will remain below 20m saturday. I am thinking 57-58m OW at this point with good sunday hold due to CD holiday in many states. 

 

Edit: false alarm. Woke up and tried to run OD shows and that does not work after so long. But I may not be able to provide an update now as I am leaving to see NTTD. But will try to give an update this evening. 

Edited October 9, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I can assure you that the connection between Demon Slayer and "cine buffs" is very low.

Americans going for a foreign movie are more likely to watch Dune I suppose than general audience. Besides I won't argue on that, my main point was that if a Japanese movie is selling out in a city, an artistic space-fic will too.

Edited October 9, 2021 by charlie Jatinder