The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Americans going for a foreign movie are more likely to watch Dune I suppose than general audience.

Demon Slayer is an anime movie with a huge anime fan base. This is the same kind of audience that shows up for Dragon Ball movies, not Dune.

[SpiderByte]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Americans going for a foreign movie are more likely to watch Dune I suppose than general audience. Besides I won't argue on that, my main point was that if a Japanese movie is selling out in a city, an artistic space-fic will too.

Yeah the type of people who see anime movies in theaters are not "foreign film fans", they're anime fans.

 

Also describing Dune, a movie with a mostly American cast made by a Hollywood studio as a "foreign movie" is a reach

[Inceptionzq]

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-1 days Saturday(216 showings): 4569(+1513)/56687(+10) in 15 theaters

No Time to Die Megaplex Saturday(221 showings)

 

6457(+1888)/57371(+684) in 15 theaters

 

Seems normal to me. About 1000 tickets behind Friday's final, but today isn't gonna be as presale heavy. 

[WrathOfHan]

Halloween Kills:

7:00 Dolby: 27/236

8:00: 2/107

9:45 Dolby: 15/236

Total: 44/579

 

Comps:

 

 

40% of AQP2 two days out (1.9M)

83% of Candyman two days out (1.6M)

244% of Old five days out (3.7M)

 

Seems like it's doing ok here. The Old comp suggests the 3.3-3.5M range others have been getting from AQP2 comps, so I'm curious how much it'll catch up to that and Candyman on Tuesday.

 

The Last Duel:

6:00: 2/107

9:30: 0/107

Total: 2/214

 

Too early for comps, but Stillwater also had 2 tickets for most of the week leading up to previews...

[WrathOfHan]

Dune:

6:00 IMAX: 14/372 (+8)

7:00 Dolby: 76/236 (+22)

7:45: 0/107 (-)

8:45 3D: 0/67 (-1)

9:30 IMAX: 8/372 (+5)

Total: 99/1,154 (+35)

 

Comps (using comps less than a week out since Venom and NTTD at the same point in time indicate 20M+):

 

29% of Black Widow the day before (3.8M)

61% of Shang-Chi six days out (5.4M)

96% of No Time to Die five days out (6M)

105% of Venom 2 four days out (11.9M)

136% of AQP2 two days out (6.5M)

 

[Nikostar]

The Last Duel opening to sub 6 million will be awful.

[Eric Duncan]

41 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Dune:

6:00 IMAX: 14/372 (+8)

7:00 Dolby: 76/236 (+22)

7:45: 0/107 (-)

8:45 3D: 0/67 (-1)

9:30 IMAX: 8/372 (+5)

Total: 99/1,154 (+35)

 

Comps (using comps less than a week out since Venom and NTTD at the same point in time indicate 20M+):

 

29% of Black Widow the day before (3.8M)

61% of Shang-Chi six days out (5.4M)

96% of No Time to Die five days out (6M)

105% of Venom 2 four days out (11.9M)

136% of AQP2 two days out (6.5M)

 

All the Timothee haters can exit stage left!

[keysersoze123]

I am about to leave to see NTTD but I triggered a run at MTC and its looking at around 175K (2.3m) at this point. let us see how walkups are today. Could end up doing slightly better than what I expected few hours ago. I would say 21m saturday is a good target.

 

Venom 2 should have good day for sure. I am thinking 13.5m. Let us see how the day goes. 

[Tinalera]

Halloween Kills

Toronto Ontario

Taken Oct 9 for Thursday Oct 14

 

Yonge Dundas, Scotia, Yonge Eglinton, Yorkdale, Eglinton town, Queensway, Empress Walk, Fairview mall

 

22 Shows

 

Total Sold 217

Total Available 5458

Grand Total seats: 5675

 

percentage 3.82

Edited October 9, 2021 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

Dune

 

Toronto Ontario

Taken Oct 10 for Thursday oct 24

 

Yonge Dundas, Scotia, varsity, yonge eglinton, Yorkdale, Eglinton town, beaches, Queensway, Empress Walk, Fairview

 

38 showings

 

Total Sold 1097

Total Available 9619

Grand total seats: 10713

 

percentage 11,41

 

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For NTTD comp to be $4.8M this early is no good. Sacramento I suppose is fairly big city and considering how great Demon Slayer sell here there are many cine buffs. 

 

Sidestepping the tenuous connection between Demon Slayer and Dune, the "problem" for Dune isn't the lack of cine buffs... it's everyone else not showing up. At the moment at least.

 

I keep mentioning it, but the relative PLF skew is getting to be insane on this film.  I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it.  Even PLF monsters like KotM still had a decent enough non-PLF penetration. 

 

After being on sale for five days, locally the PLF percentage is still just shy of 75% of all seats sold (483/646)*. 

* NOTE:  Technically, the actual number of "large screens" is over 80% (521/696), but one of the local chains doesn't always set premium pricing for its "Giant Screens" so when they charge their standard ticket price, I mark it as a standard showing and not a PLF one.

 

That's nutty.

 

Now the relatively good news is there's still a lot of PLF seats out there at good theaters to entice cinephiles and other curious folks.  Problem is, runtime and staffing problems that EC and others have mentioned are cutting into number of PLF shows at some locales.

 

So if cinephiles are making the bulk of the audience and if they're turning their nose up at non-PLF screenings... Well, only so many PLF seats to go around.

 

(or rather, not enough non-cinephiles are all that interested in plopping down bucks for non-PLF showings — again, at the moment)

Edited October 9, 2021 by Porthos

[SpiderByte]

Also, Demon Slayer was not on HBO Max day one. We've seen what that's done to WBs releases already and while some have done well, there does seem to be a ceiling.

[el sid]

So much for my 75M prediction .

Next week it's Halloween Kills' and The Last Duel's turn but today - due to the reports here that the presales still look good -
I counted Dune at 12pm EST for Thursday, October 21:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 70 (1 showtime)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 189 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): so far no showtimes
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): so far no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 38 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 443 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 602 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 1.342.

Up 29.5% since last Tuesday (in 4 days).
Comps (I have to look for some more): Ad Astra (1.5M from previews) had on Monday of its release week 821 sold tickets for Thursday in the same 7 theaters = x1.63 which would already be 2.45M with 9 days left to increase the margin.
And NTTD (5.2M) had 1.584 sold tickets on Monday of its release week for Thursday (only). And Dune is already above the number of NTTD 7 days before its Thursday previews where NTTD had 1.249 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Dune counted today at 12pm EST for Friday, October 22:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 125 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 99 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 14 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 835 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 692 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.781.

Up 25% since last Tuesday (also in 4 days).
Comps: Ad Astra (17.5M true Friday) had on Monday of its release week 708 sold tickets for Friday in the same 7 theaters = already x2.52 = 44.1M with 9 days left to increase this already way too good looking margin.
NTTD had 1.666 sold tickets also on Monday of its release week.
 

I now heard so often that Dune can't be a success that I'm really cautious but I still can't complain about its presales so far, not at all.

[WrathOfHan]

55 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Sidestepping the tenuous connection between Demon Slayer and Dune, the "problem" for Dune isn't the lack of cine buffs... it's everyone else not showing up. At the moment at least.

 

I keep mentioning it, but the relative PLF skew is getting to be insane on this film.  I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it.  Even PLF monsters like KotM still had a decent enough non-PLF penetration. 

 

After being on sale for five days, locally the PLF percentage is still just shy of 75% of all seats sold (483/646)*. 

* NOTE:  Technically, the actual number of "large screens" is over 80% (521/696), but one of the local chains doesn't always set premium pricing for its "Giant Screens" so when they charge their standard ticket price, I mark it as a standard showing and not a PLF one.

 

That's nutty.

 

Now the relatively good news is there's still a lot of PLF seats out there at good theaters to entice cinephiles and other curious folks.  Problem is, runtime and staffing problems that EC and others have mentioned are cutting into number of PLF shows at some locales.

 

So if cinephiles are making the bulk of the audience and if they're turning their nose up at non-PLF screenings... Well, only so many PLF seats to go around.

 

(or rather, not enough non-cinephiles are all that interested in plopping down bucks for non-PLF showings — again, at the moment)

 

I think AMC is making a big mistake giving full showtimes to Soho in Dolby at most (all?) theaters. Dune needs at least one or two shows to deal with excess demand from opening weekend. Dune in morning and afternoon/Soho at night would make much more sense, and with how Dune's OW is looking, it might hold on to #1 in its second weekend over Soho anyways.

Edited October 9, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'd say Dune overperforms OW because of the disparity between PFL and regular showtimes. It's already sold out the AMC IMAX Thursday here while the regular screenings have barely activity. But this divide in addition to HBO MAX's damage on legs provides a big falloff

 

It is pointless to track Last Duel but still, sheesh..

 

Cinemark (Thursday)

6 (1), 945 (0)

Friday

230 (0), 610 (0), 950 (2)

 

AMC: Thursday (9)

6 (3), 645 (1), 730 (5)

Friday (5)

315 (0), 4 (0), 645 (1), 755 (4), 

[Last Man Standing]

57 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Sidestepping the tenuous connection between Demon Slayer and Dune, the "problem" for Dune isn't the lack of cine buffs... it's everyone else not showing up. At the moment at least.

 

I keep mentioning it, but the relative PLF skew is getting to be insane on this film.  I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it.  Even PLF monsters like KotM still had a decent enough non-PLF penetration. 

 

After being on sale for five days, locally the PLF percentage is still just shy of 75% of all seats sold (483/646)*. 

* NOTE:  Technically, the actual number of "large screens" is over 80% (521/696), but one of the local chains doesn't always set premium pricing for its "Giant Screens" so when they charge their standard ticket price, I mark it as a standard showing and not a PLF one.

 

That's nutty.

 

Now the relatively good news is there's still a lot of PLF seats out there at good theaters to entice cinephiles and other curious folks.  Problem is, runtime and staffing problems that EC and others have mentioned are cutting into number of PLF shows at some locales.

 

So if cinephiles are making the bulk of the audience and if they're turning their nose up at non-PLF screenings... Well, only so many PLF seats to go around.

 

(or rather, not enough non-cinephiles are all that interested in plopping down bucks for non-PLF showings — again, at the moment)

"See it on the biggest screen you can find" was a really big talking during the marketing, looks likeit stuck.

[Ronin46]

It seems at this stage Dune having good previews is not really anything to debate. It seems fairly likely the OW will be decent (at least 35 and maybe closer to 50). What i really have no idea about is how it will leg it out after that. With so many tickets sold being for PLF and a rush to watch it right away and with HBO max really tanking legs (maybe other than Conjuring).

 

Anyone got any ideas? 40 OW and 100 domestic total?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Ronin46 said:

It seems at this stage Dune having good previews is not really anything to debate. It seems fairly likely the OW will be decent (at least 35 and maybe closer to 50). What i really have no idea about is how it will leg it out after that. With so many tickets sold being for PLF and a rush to watch it right away and with HBO max really tanking legs (maybe other than Conjuring).

 

Anyone got any ideas? 40 OW and 100 domestic total?

WrathofHan is correct that Last Night in Soho receiving Dolby knocks Dune's 2nd weekend. Dune will keep IMAX, though.

 

Nearly every WB release has had a catastrophe drop this year:

March: Godzilla v Kong -57% (after 3day) (3.12)

April: Mortal Kombat -73% (1.81)

May: Those Who Wish Me Dead -32% (2.60)

June: The Conjuring -57% (2.72)

June: In the Heights -63% (2.60)

July: Space Jam -69% (2.27)

August: Suicide Squad -71% (2.13)

August: Reminiscence -59% (2.00)

Sept: Malignant -50% (2.43)

Sept: Cry Macho -54% (2.23)

Oct: Many Saints -68%

 

If it opens to 40m, domestic should be between 89-104m. With eventual re-releases and possibilities of Oscar buzz/greatly overperforming OW, 110m could be on the table. This seems reasonable? 

[Ronin46]

6 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

WrathofHan is correct that Last Night in Soho receiving Dolby knocks Dune's 2nd weekend. Dune will keep IMAX, though.

 

Nearly every WB release has had a catastrophe drop this year:

March: Godzilla v Kong -57% (after 3day) (3.12)

April: Mortal Kombat -73% (1.81)

May: Those Who Wish Me Dead -32% (2.60)

June: The Conjuring -57% (2.72)

June: In the Heights -63% (2.60)

July: Space Jam -69% (2.27)

August: Suicide Squad -71% (2.13)

August: Reminiscence -59% (2.00)

Sept: Malignant -50% (2.43)

Sept: Cry Macho -54% (2.23)

Oct: Many Saints -68%

 

If it opens to 40m, domestic should be between 89-104m. With eventual re-releases and possibilities of Oscar buzz/greatly overperforming OW, 110m could be on the table. This seems reasonable? 

 

I think the 3 plus multiplier for GvK wont happen because the landscape has changed. The model was new back then and did have as many subs and people have been conditioned that they can watch it at home now. People were bored back the and GvK was an "event". Dune is as well but the market is more saturated now with big budget movies. It also might be people watch it on a PLF and then at home on HBO for a 2nd viewing rather than going back to the cinema. Further hurting the multiplier.

 

I could see a 55M to 60 opening and a 160M+ domestic without HBO. With it I think 40/100M seems realistic.  

Edited October 9, 2021 by Ronin46

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-2 days Sunday(191 showings): 869(+239)/51036 in 15 theaters

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-1 day Sunday(193 showings): 1273(+404)/51356(+320) in 15 theaters

Edited October 9, 2021 by Inceptionzq