The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

93

311

29.90%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

318

14.15%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
380	48	5099	7.45%	15	33

 

AMCs sold	243
Cinemarks sold	80
Regals sold	36
Harkins sold	21

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 4.14M

Suicide Squad comp: 3.45M

Fast 9 comp: 3.49M

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

98

311

31.51%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

52

318

16.35%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
404	24	5099	7.92%	15	33

 

AMCs sold	262
Cinemarks sold	82
Regals sold	39
Harkins sold	21

 

Fast 9 comp: 3.39M

 

Only the Fast 9 comp today. So, the Cinemark website has a banner at the top when a "movie is hot". It shows when at least 100 people have looked at showtimes for the theater in a given day. The theater it popped up at only added 2 tickets for previews, so I took a look at Friday and Saturday showings, and they're looking good. Did the same for some other theaters, and showings are also looking good for those days. The same thing happened at Megaplex yesterday with weak additions to Thursday, but strong ones for Friday and Saturday. All this to say, presales may be spread out to a bigger degree than at least I expected.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday(24 showings): 156(+9)/4244 in 14 theaters

 

Suicide Squad comp: 2.73M

 

T-7 days Friday(51 showings): 208(+63)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

Suicide Squad comp: 10.81M

 

T-8 days Saturday(51 showings): 84(+31)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

T-9 days Sunday(30 showings): 19/4882 in 9 theaters

 

Really bad Thursday increase for whatever reason, but Friday and Saturday were great. Guess most people that bought tickets in the past 24 hours just happened to be going for Friday and Saturday.

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-5 days Thursday(24 showings): 178(+22)/4244 in 14 theaters

 

T-6 days Friday(51 showings): 252(+44)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

T-7 days Saturday(51 showings): 102(+18)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

T-8 days Sunday(30 showings): 21(+2)/4882 in 9 theaters

 

No comps today

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

231

653

35.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

189

1451

13.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
871	103	10415	8.36%	15	53

 

AMCs sold	647
Cinemarks sold	60
Regals sold	156
Harkins sold	8

 

Shang-Chi comp: 10.98M

Black Widow day 5 comp: 10.44M

 

Another great day. I'll be switching to the regular BW comp tomorrow.

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

239

653

36.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

206

1451

14.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
931	60	10415	8.94%	15	53

 

AMCs sold	680
Cinemarks sold	71
Regals sold	167
Harkins sold	13

 

Shang-Chi comp: 11.03M

Black Widow comp: 6.93M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-13 days Thursday(36 showings): 1352(+108)/11568 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 17.09M

 

T-14 days Friday(85 showings): 1362(+153)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 59.11M

 

T-15 days Saturday(82 showings): 650(+100)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-16 days Sunday(67 showings): 213(+33)/23463 in 12 theaters

 

No Black Widow comp today but Friday very likely passed BW now

Dune Megaplex

 

T-12 days Thursday(36 showings): 1400(+48)/11568 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 16.40M

Black Widow comp: 8.35M

 

T-13 days Friday(85 showings): 1478(+116)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 57.62M

Black Widow comp: 26.83M

 

T-14 days Saturday(82 showings): 769(+119)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-15 days Sunday(67 showings): 224(+9)/23463 in 12 theaters

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-12 days Thursday(36 showings): 1400(+48)/11568 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 16.40M

Black Widow comp: 8.35M

 

T-13 days Friday(85 showings): 1478(+116)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 57.62M

Black Widow comp: 26.83M

 

T-14 days Saturday(82 showings): 769(+119)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-15 days Sunday(67 showings): 224(+9)/23463 in 12 theaters

I hope the megaplex comps work out. Dune trailer looked great in Dolby screening of NTTD. I think anything above Godzilla 5 day is a huge win for a movie opening with HBO Max for free. 

[Inceptionzq]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I hope the megaplex comps work out. Dune trailer looked great in Dolby screening of NTTD. I think anything above Godzilla 5 day is a huge win for a movie opening with HBO Max for free. 

If only. I’d be surprised if Megaplex doesn’t overperform by quite a bit

[Rainy]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am about to leave to see NTTD but I triggered a run at MTC and its looking at around 175K (2.3m) at this point. let us see how walkups are today. Could end up doing slightly better than what I expected few hours ago. I would say 21m saturday is a good target.

 

Venom 2 should have good day for sure. I am thinking 13.5m. Let us see how the day goes. 

Are you still thinking 21m for NTTD? Or maybe slightly lower now?

[charlie Jatinder]

Thinking ~3M THU after reading Sacramento for Dune. Let's see.

 

@Porthos is your WED:THU ratio for NTTD par national average? i.e. 1:5. If not, I guess there may be some extrapolation hiccups.

Edited October 10, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[lorddemaxus]

I mean I get that the PLF split and fan-rush is something to take into account here, but I have no clue how one comp in one region means it will have worse Thurs previews than TSS when it seems to be outerperforming that everywhere.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'd be astonished by just 3m. Blade Runner 2049 did 4m. And sales look much better. As I said, the Thursday IMAX is sold out at the AMC here.

 

I also don't think HBO MAX is premiering on thursday as it did for Suicide Squad. 

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I also don't think HBO MAX is premiering on thursday as it did for Suicide Squad. 

This would b good to know -- I assume it is.  

 

Looks more like 5+ to me, but it is hard to say how the final week will go for it. I understand jat's concern with the nttd comp.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

This would b good to know -- I assume it is.  

 

Looks more like 5+ to me, but it is hard to say how the final week will go for it. I understand jat's concern with the nttd comp.

I haven't seen HBO MAX advertise it the way they did Suicide Squad so until further notice, I guess it will just premiere streaming 3amEST Friday.

 

If anything, Dune feels like it would have amazing Thursday previews that freak everyone out but is very frontloaded Saturday

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Rainy said:

Are you still thinking 21m for NTTD? Or maybe slightly lower now?

Definitely lower. It did not move much after 430PM update barely increasing 12%. I would say around 15% increase minus previews. So MTC is around 19.5m. Hopefully overall saturday is above 19m. 

 

Venom 2 increased tad more than 52% at MTC. It should hopefully have saturday > 13m. 

Edited October 10, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I haven't seen HBO MAX advertise it the way they did Suicide Squad so until further notice, I guess it will just premiere streaming 3amEST Friday.

 

If anything, Dune feels like it would have amazing Thursday previews that freak everyone out but is very frontloaded Saturday

Iirc the announcement that it would be on hbo Thursday came much later than the announcement of Thursday previews, so I’m still expecting one. I don’t think hbo has had a single second this year where you could see one of their movies in a theater  before it was available on max and I’d be surprised if they start now.

[charlie Jatinder]

58 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I mean I get that the PLF split and fan-rush is something to take into account here, but I have no clue how one comp in one region means it will have worse Thurs previews than TSS when it seems to be outerperforming that everywhere.

I guess TSS comp does make it look better, but then TSS was very backloaded in sales. I remember it tracking at $2-2.5M previews for most of its run, eventually hitting $3M in most comps, except Harkins which suggested $3.75M.

 

Without pre-sales I would expect Dune to be around 1.2-1.5x of BR2049 previews, so Sacramento comp being ~$3M is surprising. Sacramento happens to be somehow really representative of nationwide.

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Definitely lower. It did not move much after 430PM update barely increasing 12%. I would say around 15% increase minus previews. So MTC is around 19.5m. Hopefully overall saturday is above 19m. 

 

Venom 2 increased tad more than 52% at MTC. It should hopefully have saturday > 13m. 

Safe to say Canada increase should be less than USA given overindexing+capacity.

[charlie Jatinder]

BTW Friday was 16.6. I expect actuals to be around 22.8.

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thinking ~3M THU after reading Sacramento for Dune. Let's see.

 

@Porthos is your WED:THU ratio for NTTD par national average? i.e. 1:5. If not, I guess there may be some extrapolation hiccups.

 

Wed:    558

Thr:   3349

Total: 3907

 

Almost exactly 1:6.

 

Then again, do we actually know the national split or was that some extrapolation from data gleaned here?

[Eric Atreides]

On 10/8/2021 at 11:43 PM, Eric Safin said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	680	4429	15.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 66

 

Comp

0.757x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-6 (14.67M)

1.627x of The Conjuring 3 T-6 (15.95M)

0.596x of F9 T-6 (4.23M)

1.475x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (6.05M)

0.609x of Venom 2 T-6 (7.06M)

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	767	4429	19.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 87

 

Comp

0.744x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-5 (14.41M)

1.444x of The Conjuring 3 T-5 (14.16M)

0.593x of F9 T-5 (4.21M)

1.501x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (6.15M)

0.604x of Venom 2 T-5 (7.01M)

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Wed:    558

Thr:   3349

Total: 3907

 

Almost exactly 1:6.

 

Then again, do we actually know the national split or was that some extrapolation from data gleaned here?

we sort of know now. 1 and 5.2.