The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Eric Safin said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	857	4429	19.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 177

 

Comp

0.831x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-5 (16.1M)

1.614x of The Conjuring 3 T-5 (15.82M)

0.662x of F9 T-5 (4.7M)

1.677x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (6.88M)

0.675x of Venom 2 T-5 (7.83M)

are these for FRI or THU? looks vert strong considering its 67% of Venom.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

20 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Iirc the announcement that it would be on hbo Thursday came much later than the announcement of Thursday previews, so I’m still expecting one. I don’t think hbo has had a single second this year where you could see one of their movies in a theater  before it was available on max and I’d be surprised if they start now.

Was In the Heights on MAX Thursday?
 

But I guess this is what happens when a phone company is running your studio 

[Rainy]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Was In the Heights on MAX Thursday?
 

But I guess this is what happens when a phone company is running your studio 

I just checked and In the heights came to HBO Max on June 10th, a Thursday.

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/8/2021 at 11:58 PM, Eric Safin said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	674	6716	10.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp

0.859x of F9 T-13 (6.1M)

0.352x of Black Widow T-13 (4.65M)

2.451x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (10.05M)

0.716x of Shang-Chi T-13 (6.3M)

0.998x of Venom 2 T-13 (11.58M)

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	716	6716	10.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.846x of F9 T-12 (6.01M)

0.354x of Black Widow T-12 (4.67M)

2.403x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (9.85M)

0.732x of Shang-Chi T-12 (6.44M)

1.013x of Venom 2 T-12 (11.75M)

[keysersoze123]

Dune is still doing well with small show count.

 

Previews(T-12) - 29913/229606 556562.27 1099 shows

Friday(T-13) - 27662/516218 508189.68 2506 shows

 

Even if its final week is not great I cant see it bomb at this point. Definitely think this is opening > Godzilla 5 day at this point. Its trailer in Dolby was terrific as well.

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune is still doing well with small show count.

 

Previews(T-12) - 29913/229606 556562.27 1099 shows

Friday(T-13) - 27662/516218 508189.68 2506 shows

 

Even if its final week is not great I cant see it bomb at this point. Definitely think this is opening > Godzilla 5 day at this point. Its trailer in Dolby was terrific as well.

5.1k sold in last 3 days. Not bad actually. Around 60% pace of SC. We don't have direct comp with NTTD, but that added 4k in 2 days from T-12 to T-10 days (just THU alone I suppose), so slightly lower pace I suppose.

 

MTC 2 is lower than NTTD though. 

 

Won't go $3M I guess but $4-5M range more likely.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Definitely think this is opening > Godzilla 5 day at this point. Its trailer in Dolby was terrific as well.

[Porthos]

On 10/9/2021 at 12:00 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	11185	11831	646	5.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	78.46		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		4.86m
SC	60.71		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		5.34m
V2	66.60		92	970		0/155	24891/25861	3.75%		7.73m

PRE-SALE NOTE: NTTD tickets have been on sale for two days more than Dune while Venom: Let There Be Carnage has been on sale for five more days than Dune

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	60.12		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		4.47m
Dune (adj)	---		32	591		0/65	9808/10399	5.68%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9 tickets have been on sale for five more days than Dune' s tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 168/4531 [3.71% sold] [+7 tickets]

 

===

 

As expected, everything aside from the Shang-Chi comp took a massive hit today from the shift to T-x comps. That's what happens when some films had nearly a week more of pre-sales.  The interesting comp is the No Time to Die one (using the 6.2m reported preview number, ftr) which only has a two day difference in pre-sales.  But at these low numbers, even that matters.

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	11130	11831	701	5.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

55

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	86.33		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		5.35m
SC	61.01		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		5.37m
V2	66.01		92	1062		0/155	24799/25861	4.11%		7.66m

PRE-SALE NOTE: NTTD tickets have been on sale for two days more than Dune while Venom: Let There Be Carnage has been on sale for five more days than Dune

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	63.27		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		4.70m
Dune (adj)	---		55	646		0/65	9753/10399	6.21%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9 tickets have been on sale for five more days than Dune' s tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 180/4531 [3.97% sold] [+12 tickets]

Edited October 13, 2021 by Porthos

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

#1 predictions for rest of year:

Oct 15-17: Halloween Kills

Oct 22-24: Dune

Oct 29-31: Dune

Nov 5-7: Eternals

Nov 12-14: Eternals

Nov 19-21: Eternals (NGNG over Ghostbusters. Thinking like 23-25m)

Nov 26-28: Encanto

Dec 3-5: Encanto

Dec 10-12: West Side Story

Dec 17-19: Spiderman

Dec 24-26: Spiderman

Dec 31-Jan 2: Spiderman

 

 

[Napoleon]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Won't go $3M I guess but $4-5M range more likely.

I already told everyone that Dune will have a $9-10m preview, any chance it still happens or should I start planning going into hiding on the October 22-24 weekend?

 

I'll never try to interpret this thread's numbers again.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I already told everyone that Dune will have a $9-10m preview, any chance it still happens or should I start planning going into hiding on the October 22-24 weekend?

 

I'll never try to interpret this thread's numbers again.

can pretend you meant Friday of 9-10M.

Edited October 10, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Napoleon said:

I already told everyone that Dune will have a $9-10m preview, any chance it still happens or should I start planning going into hiding on the October 22-24 weekend?

 

I'll never try to interpret this thread's numbers again.

Oh that may have been a bit high, yeah   

 

We didn’t have any super great day 1 comps for this. Personally I am thinking 5-6.5ish and there is always some chance of exploding but your odds are not very good.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

#1 predictions for rest of year:

Spoiler

 

Oct 15-17: Halloween Kills

Oct 22-24: Dune

Oct 29-31: Dune

Nov 5-7: Eternals

Nov 12-14: Eternals

Nov 19-21: Eternals (NGNG over Ghostbusters. Thinking like 23-25m)

Nov 26-28: Encanto

Dec 3-5: Encanto

Dec 10-12: West Side Story

Dec 17-19: Spiderman

Dec 24-26: Spiderman

Dec 31-Jan 2: Spiderman

 

Jan 7-9:

Spoiler

just joking. may be $10M weekend.

 

Edited October 10, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[XXR vs XXR]

Bond Thursday was $5.2M correct? My expectation for Dune is -/+ $500,000 of that number. 

[eridani]

Let me see if I understood what various people are reading out of these comparisons for dune opening weekend, in these last several posts.

60 percent of Shang chi opening?

Slightly higher than Godzilla v Kong 5 day opening?

Slightly lower than bond opening?

 

If those are valid, would it also point towards an 40 to 50 million dollar opening weekend for dune? (Previews included)

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune is still doing well with small show count.

 

Previews(T-12) - 29913/229606 556562.27 1099 shows

Friday(T-13) - 27662/516218 508189.68 2506 shows

 

Even if its final week is not great I cant see it bomb at this point. Definitely think this is opening > Godzilla 5 day at this point. Its trailer in Dolby was terrific as well.

 

Dune won't get a huge, huge bump in show counts just b/c of all the competition that weekend and before, and knowing it's an HBO Max release (so they don't tend to have staying power through a weekend usually)...

 

You'll have Venom, NTTD, Halloween Kills, and Last Duel as either required or desired holdovers and Ron's Gone Wrong opening against it...and you may have theaters also wanting to keep Addams Family 2...

 

PS - And Cinemark has decided to also open The Harder They Fall as a chain that weekend for 3 opens at MTC 2...

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/7/2021 at 10:18 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-14	Dune	Jacksonville	6	36	6,338	156	156	2.46%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,529	170	170	6.72%
		Raleigh	6	15	2,320	94	94	4.05%
	Dune Total		18	68	11,187	420	420	3.75%
T-7	Halloween Kills	Jacksonville	6	14	2,528	121	121	4.79%
		Phoenix	7	19	3,016	162	162	5.37%
		Raleigh	7	15	1,858	149	149	8.02%
	Halloween Kills Total		20	48	7,402	432	432	5.84%

 

Had a little time this morning to set up the next two big movies.  

 

Halloween Kills T-7 comps

TSS - 1.09x (4.47m)

Venom 2 - .503x (5.84m)

 

Average - 5.157m

 

Dune T-14 comps

Venom 2 - .909x (10.55m)

F9 - .737x (5.23m)

 

Average - 7.89m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales*	% Sold
T-11	Dune	Jacksonville	6	38	6,376	254	86	3.98%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,529	198	28	7.83%
		Raleigh	7	17	2,529	130	36	5.14%
	Dune Total		19	72	11,434	582	150	5.09%
T-4	Halloween Kills	Jacksonville	6	20	3,016	215	94	7.13%
		Phoenix	7	19	3,016	285	123	9.45%
		Raleigh	7	15	1,858	217	68	11.68%
	Halloween Kills Total		20	54	7,890	717	285	9.09%
T-4	The Last Duel	Jacksonville	5	9	863	10	10	1.16%
		Phoenix	7	12	1,400	12	12	0.86%
		Raleigh	7	8	600	19	19	3.17%
	The Last Duel Total		19	29	2,863	41	41	1.43%

 

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Halloween is looking really good in my areas.  It had new sales in 42 of 54 and only has six empty shows (three of which were just added.)  

 

Halloween comps

TSS - 1.4x (5.73m)

Venom 2 - .546x (6.33m)

Candyman - 5.646x (16.9m)

 

The Last Duel comps

Green Knight - .64x (480k)

Old - .526x (788k)

 

Dune comps

Venom 2 - .91x (10.6m)

F9 - .78x (5.55m)

No Time to Die - 1.28x (6.65m)

 

Average - 7.6m

[charlie Jatinder]

Hmm so Halloween looking for $5M+ THU in most comps. I guess $40M shall happen then. Really solid start. I thought this may drop like 50-60% from original.

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hmm so Halloween looking for $5M+ THU in most comps. I guess $40M shall happen then. Really solid start. I thought this may drop like 50-60% from original.

Theater business is booming lmao. It is still dropping 50%. It won't reach 40M with 5M previews.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Theater business is booming lmao. It is still dropping 50%. It won't reach 40M with 5M previews.

CJ o CJ, this stop being funny a month ago. rest it.

Edited October 10, 2021 by charlie Jatinder