The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

11 hours ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Bond is literally tanking as we speak and Venom is now running behind the first movie's total. If anyone believes theaters will ever be back they have to be trolling.

stop

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think 4.5 ish will take 100k admits.

No way. Not single movie I have tracked has had > 20K admits per million dollars. Some of them well below. One comparison for recent WB was Suicide Squad and that did 78737/300279 1227843.05 for 4.1m. That was skewed heavily in MTC1. with 100K admits and so much Imax/PLF sales it will hit at least 5.3m previews. I think it will go higher than that as its taper off looks fairly normal. 

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No way. Not single movie I have tracked has had > 20K admits per million dollars. Some of them well below. One comparison for recent WB was Suicide Squad and that did 78737/300279 1227843.05 for 4.1m. That was skewed heavily in MTC1. with 100K admits and so much Imax/PLF sales it will hit at least 5.3m previews. I think it will go higher than that as its taper off looks fairly normal. 

Since you named TSS, MTC2 was 30% of MTC1 at T-8 days. I am waiting for @Menor's number but the only comparable numbers we had, MTC2 was close to low 20s % of MTC1 for Dune.

 

I am not too certain for 100k being $4.5M as we didn't had the latest number yet. Was just thinking that MTC1 ratio may be close to 35%. TSS was 32%.

Edited October 11, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

Yeah since MTC2 doesn’t have imax a hige imax heaviness also drives mtc1 heaviness. Hard to say just how much that will balance out by end of th.

[Eric Duncan]

22 hours ago, Eric Safin said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	767	4429	19.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 87

 

Comp

0.744x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-5 (14.41M)

1.444x of The Conjuring 3 T-5 (14.16M)

0.593x of F9 T-5 (4.21M)

1.501x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (6.15M)

0.604x of Venom 2 T-5 (7.01M)

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	858	4429	19.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 91

 

Comp

0.671x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-4 (13M)

1.219x of The Conjuring 3 T-4 (11.95M)

0.612x of F9 T-4 (4.35M)

1.416x of The Suicide Squad T-4 (5.8M)

0.601x of Venom 2 T-4 (6.97M)

 

Okay, so just to clarify some things: yesterday, I screwed up and counted one theater's Friday showings compared to the Thursday showings. They both had two showings each, but it was still a screw up nonetheless, and I should have picked up on the film generating an obscene 177 tickets on a Saturday.

 

In the end, this is still not a bad number, especially considering how off all my comps are. It'll be interesting to see how it compares to the new horror titles joining the fray.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Dune MTC2

 

Thursday

Showings: 1111 (+85)

Seats Sold: 9536/186712 (+4297)

 

Friday

Showings: 2096 (+43)

Seats Sold; 9942/370348 (+4586)

 

@charlie Jatinder here it is. The ratio seems to have improved slightly since the first days. 

Edited October 11, 2021 by Menor

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Yeah since MTC2 doesn’t have imax a hige imax heaviness also drives mtc1 heaviness. Hard to say just how much that will balance out by end of th.

There are actually a few MTC2 with IMAX, I found out today. Most don't though. 

[Eric Duncan]

22 hours ago, Eric Safin said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	716	6716	10.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.846x of F9 T-12 (6.01M)

0.354x of Black Widow T-12 (4.67M)

2.403x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (9.85M)

0.732x of Shang-Chi T-12 (6.44M)

1.013x of Venom 2 T-12 (11.75M)

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	752	6716	11.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp

0.869x of F9 T-11 (6.17M)

0.358x of Black Widow T-11 (4.72M)

2.515x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (10.31M)

0.711x of Shang-Chi T-11 (6.26M)

0.969x of Venom 2 T-11 (11.24M)

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

Dune MTC2

 

Thursday

Showings: 1111 (+85)

Seats Sold: 9536/186712 (+4297)

 

Friday

Showings: 2096 (+43)

Seats Sold; 9942/370348 (+4586)

 

@charlie Jatinder here it is. The ratio seems to have improved slightly since the first days. 

So around 30% I suppose since yday MTC 1 was 29k ish.

 

Lets see how things go.

[titanic2187]

Given the way they advertise, I doubt there will be many new subscribers added to HBO max this month, just to watch Dune. The real challenge is how to convince HBO Max existing subscribers to pay additional price to watch something they have already paid in advance, and worse, not to share it with anyone else like a cheap beer. All in, this should hit 110m-125m range.   

[keysersoze123]

I think Dune's legs will be impacted big time with it being available on HBO Max. But OW should be good considering it has some fanbase(looking at OD sales) and it looks fantastic on big screen. So it might get some of HBO Max subs to also check it out on big screen like that did for Godzilla vs Kong earlier this year. I think previews will be close to 6m and OW in 45-50m range(its friday PS relative to previews is very good and is already has faster run rate than preview sales). Plus it has sold so much with so few shows and that will change in next 2 weeks leading to its release. Its strong reviews also helps big time. 

 

I wish WB had made this theatrical. This and Matrix should not have gone day and date on streaming considering the budget and also scale of the movies. It would have had potential to gross > 150m domestic. Matrix would have had much bigger potential. 

 

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Previews(T-12) - 29913/229606 556562.27 1099 shows

Friday(T-13) - 27662/516218 508189.68 2506 shows

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-11) - 31292/230646 581028.78 1106 shows

OD(T-12) -  29757/516250 545303.33 2507 shows

 

Another good day so far from release. 

 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

There are actually a few MTC2 with IMAX, I found out today. Most don't though. 

There are DBOX and XD shows. Not as popular as Dolby Prime or Imax at MTC1 but still its their own PLF format. 

[WrathOfHan]

A 45/110 domestic run for Dune would be enough for Part 2 with how the international gross has been performing pre-UK and China (I expect higher legs with how barren the first half of November is). It's going to break even and could turn a 20-50M profit when all is said and done. Without HBO Max, 450-500M WW would've happened, but alas...

Edited October 11, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

There are DBOX and XD shows. Not as popular as Dolby Prime or Imax at MTC1 but still its their own PLF format. 

 

And, frankly, it depends on the market.  Locally, Century Arden (which has XD) is the Big Kahuna and regularly outperforms the Regal IMAXs in the area.  Only the Esquire IMAX (an honest to goodness TrueIMAX theater) will occasionally outperform Arden (it's doing so for Dune, for example). 

 

And even then it tends to have fewer showtimes due to being a single screen and a true independent theater.

[Plain Old Tele]

Having seen it, it’s definitely something you want to see in the biggest/loudest auditorium possible. 

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	11130	11831	701	5.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

55

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	86.33		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		5.35m
SC	61.01		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		5.37m
V2	66.01		92	1062		0/155	24799/25861	4.11%		7.66m

PRE-SALE NOTE: NTTD tickets have been on sale for two days more than Dune while Venom: Let There Be Carnage has been on sale for five more days than Dune

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	63.27		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		4.70m
Dune (adj)	---		55	646		0/65	9753/10399	6.21%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9 tickets have been on sale for five more days than Dune' s tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 180/4531 [3.97% sold] [+12 tickets]

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	11084	11831	747	6.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

46

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	85.27		64	876		0/134	20340/21216	4.13%		5.29m
SC	61.18		72	1221		0/101	15781/17002	7.18%		5.38m
V2	63.90		107	1169		0/156	24909/26078	4.48%		7.41m

PRE-SALE NOTE: NTTD tickets have been on sale for two days more than Dune while Venom: Let There Be Carnage has been on sale for five more days than Dune

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	64.07		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		4.76m
Dune (adj)	---		46	692		0/65	9707/10399	6.65%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9 tickets have been on sale for five more days than Dune' s tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 191/4531 [4.22% sold] [+11 tickets]

[CJohn]

5 hours ago, DAJK said:

stop

The truth can't be stopped.

[Krissykins]

9 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Peacock will have no impact on this OW at all. Maybe if it was HBO MAX but I’m not even factoring in Peacock

You certainly have to factor in piracy though. 

[Legion Again]

Guys… I say with a heavy heart…. it is time

 

[Old Spice]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Dune's legs will be impacted big time with it being available on HBO Max. But OW should be good considering it has some fanbase(looking at OD sales) and it looks fantastic on big screen. So it might get some of HBO Max subs to also check it out on big screen like that did for Godzilla vs Kong earlier this year. I think previews will be close to 6m and OW in 45-50m range(its friday PS relative to previews is very good and is already has faster run rate than preview sales). Plus it has sold so much with so few shows and that will change in next 2 weeks leading to its release. Its strong reviews also helps big time. 

 

I wish WB had made this theatrical. This and Matrix should not have gone day and date on streaming considering the budget and also scale of the movies. It would have had potential to gross > 150m domestic. Matrix would have had much bigger potential. 

 

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-11) - 31292/230646 581028.78 1106 shows

OD(T-12) -  29757/516250 545303.33 2507 shows

 

Another good day so far from release. 

 

 

If they'd even just tweaked their pitch to say 'Watch it Opening Weekend!'... say, 8:00 PM Sunday... instead of making it available the very second it hit theatrical, they could have made so much more money. The hardcore fans wouldn't have been able to wait so OWs would have been stronger, and the pirates would have been held at bay for an additional 72 hours helping intl. Meanwhile, casual viewers who wanted to watch at home would still feel like they were getting a great deal. It just wasn't thought out very well at all.