The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

39 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I can see Dune outgross Tenet in the opening weekend alone if it doesn't melt like NTTD in the end. I suppose Dune is the rare film now that can hold IMAX/PLF screen for two weeks. 

Nah 59M is likely too high. Denver seems like it’s gonna overperform, look at some other trackers’ SC and BW comps.

[famicommander]

Considering the HBO Max opening weekends so far:

1. Godzilla vs Kong - 31.626M

2. Space Jam 2 - 31.035M

3. The Suicide Squad - 26.205M

4. The Conjuring 3 - 24.104M

5. Mortal Kombat - 23.303M

6. Wonder Woman 1984 - 16.702M

 

I'd say anything over 35 million is outstanding.

 

By the way, BOP has a new prediction out:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-eternals/

 

42-52 million opening, up from their previous range of 35-45 million.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/19/2021 at 10:18 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow(T-19)

MTC1 - 49389/447463 738526.00 2288 shows(428 Theatres)

MTC2 - 35812/427104 476202.37 2810 shows(304 Theatres)

 

On 10/14/2021 at 8:54 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals MTC1

Previews(T-21) -  45363/359555 811468.27 1810 shows (+2573)

OD(T-22) -  26436/717376 477292.72 3532 shows (+1964)

Eternals MTC1

Previews(T-19) - 48004/360866 856529.98 1821 shows

OD(T-20) - 29000/718285 521687.32 3543 shows

 

I am not able to get MTC2 numbers anymore( @Menor) but at MTC1 Eternals is still up around 16% in gross but bit below in admits for previews. I dont have Friday data for T-19 but a week later data was like below. Higher average price should help Eternals in regards to comps for sure. 

 

Quote

MTC1

Black Widow(T-12) Previews - 66333/462524 994450.00 2395 shows. 

BW Friday PS MTC1(T-13) - 46290/775727 639239.00 3863 shows.

BW Saturday PS(T-14) - 30288/818865 374629.00 4061 shows.

 

Edited October 16, 2021 by keysersoze123

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Eternals MTC1

Previews(T-19) - 48004/360866 856529.98 1821 shows

OD(T-20) - 29000/718285 521687.32 3543 shows

 

I am not able to get MTC2 numbers anymore( @Menor) but at MTC1 Eternals is still up around 16% in gross but bit below in admits for previews. I dont have Friday data for T-19 but a week later data was like below. Higher average price should help Eternals in regards to comps for sure. 

 

 

in other words great ?

 

ps not trying to be annoying , just want clarification

[ThomasNicole]

I think what will make the difference between Eternals and BW is the final week, which is where BW didn't do great because of D+ etc 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, john2000 said:

in other words great ?

 

ps not trying to be annoying , just want clarification

it had an excellent start and so its great at this point for sure. Plus average ticket price is an important factor to extrapolate as ticket prices are going up for Eternals. Let us see how things go. runrate wise its below BW at similar point but that is negated against increased ticket prices. Plus BW did not have ontario market in its release week. Let us monitor how things go. 

 

MTC2 start was weaker than BW but let us see if it has caught up. @Menor hopefully provides an update today. 

[john2000]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

it had an excellent start and so its great at this point for sure. Plus average ticket price is an important factor to extrapolate as ticket prices are going up for Eternals. Let us see how things go. runrate wise its below BW at similar point but that is negated against increased ticket prices. Plus BW did not have ontario market in its release week. Let us monitor how things go. 

 

MTC2 start was weaker than BW but let us see if it has caught up. @Menor hopefully provides an update today. 

thank you

[keysersoze123]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I think what will make the difference between Eternals and BW is the final week, which is where BW didn't do great because of D+ etc 

BW final week was good just not great. Terrible final week would be NTTD. It just fell apart final few days. Great to me was Venom 2. That accelerated huge and final day walk ups was crazy strong. I dont think any MCU movie with so much early Pre sales can match. That is to me not a negative. That shows how popular these movies are. 

 

BW sold over 82K tickets for previews at MTC1 on its day of release. That is not bad at all. 

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

HK Friday MTC1 - 279910/742704 3932827.76 4622 shows.

 

It actually finished tad more than 5% ahead of Bond at MTC1. Still wont be that strong in canada. MTC2 looks stronger than Bond as well. I could see studio estimates go up to say 21.5m. 

 

Yikes my extrapolation was horrible. Somewhere I got the math wrong. 

 

Anyway HK Sat -147957/783630 2016545.65 4854 shows. Its below Friday but mornings will be way stronger. Let us hope it has good walkups to come close to friday BO. I would say 17-18m range at this point for HK Saturday. 

Edited October 16, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

295

606

48.68%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

299

1319

22.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1394	86	10391	13.42%	15	55

 

AMCs sold	933
Cinemarks sold	119
Regals sold	310
Harkins sold	32

 

Shang-Chi comp: 9.17M

Black Widow comp: 7.43M

 

The consistency in pace has been very impressive.

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

306

606

50.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

307

1319

23.28%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1489	95	10391	14.33%	15	55

 

AMCs sold	976
Cinemarks sold	125
Regals sold	351
Harkins sold	37

 

Shang-Chi comp: 9.17M

Black Widow comp: 7.42M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday(53 showings): 2058(+174)/14967 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 14.01M

Black Widow comp: 8.97M

 

T-7 days Friday(85 showings): 2376(+157)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 52.83M

Black Widow comp: 26.49M

 

T-8 days Saturday(82 showings): 1409(+178)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-9 days Sunday(67 showings): 389(+53)/23463 in 12 theaters

Dune Megaplex

 

T-5 days Thursday(53 showings): 2191(+133)/14967 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.80M

Black Widow comp: 9.05M

 

T-6 days Friday(85 showings): 2631(+255)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 52.02M

Black Widow comp: 26.48M

 

T-7 days Saturday(82 showings): 1517(+108)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-8 days Sunday(71showings): 432(+43)/24452(+480) in 13 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

278

1478

18.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

196

1741

11.26%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
978	79	15592	6.27%	15	86

 

AMCs sold	726
Cinemarks sold	97
Regals sold	119
Harkins sold	36

 

Shang-Chi day 5 comp: 12.33M

Adjusted Black Widow day 5 comp: 12.28M

 

Gonna switch to the normal BW comp tomorrow and stop the SC comp until T-14 days.

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

294

1478

19.89%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

201

1741

11.55%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1014	36	15592	6.50%	15	86

 

AMCs sold	748
Cinemarks sold	107
Regals sold	123
Harkins sold	36

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 10.32M

 

Slow day, but nothing to worry about. Also switched to the normal BW comp.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-20 days Thursday(44 showings): 807(+55)/15020 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 5 comp: 10.20M

Black Widow comp: 6.45M

 

T-21 days Friday(86 showings): 367(+31)/31248 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 5 comp: 15.93M

Black Widow comp: 10.48M

 

T-22 days Saturday(84 showings): 227(+26)/30586 in 14 theaters

 

T-23 days Sunday(70 showings): 71(+4)/23648(+4408) in 11 theaters

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-19 days Thursday(44 showings): 819(+12)/15020 in 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.22M

 

T-20 days Friday(86 showings): 411(+44)/31248 in 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 11.03M

 

T-21 days Saturday(84 showings): 250(+23)/30586 in 14 theaters

 

T-22 days Sunday(70 showings): 73(+2)/23648(+4408) in 11 theaters

 

Slow Thursday here too, but at least Friday had a little boost.

[john2000]

reactions drop on mon, that should help

[WrathOfHan]

Dune:

6:00 IMAX: 31/372 (+11)

7:00 Dolby: 94/236 (+5)

7:45: 2/107 (+2)

8:45 3D: 0/67 (-)

9:30 IMAX: 17/372 (+6)

Total: 145/1,154 (+24)

 

Comps:

 

42% of Black Widow the day before (5.5M)

88% of Shang-Chi six days out (7.7M)

141% of No Time to Die five days out (8.8M)

154% of Venom 2 four days out (17.4M)

199% of AQP2 two days out (9.6M)

 

You could stop the count now and these would be great comps. 2D even got seats sold this time around!

 

 

[Justin4125]

6 hours ago, famicommander said:

Considering the HBO Max opening weekends so far:

1. Godzilla vs Kong - 31.626M

Not giving GVK enough credit imo. Since GVK had a five day opening, that 3-day figure doesnt count previews (which it didnt have) plus wed+thur depressed the 3-day. GVK would have opened to 40m with a standard 3-day opening weekend, so personally I feel that's the number to beat (which Dune will do handily)

 

 

Edited October 16, 2021 by Justin4125

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

it had an excellent start and so its great at this point for sure. Plus average ticket price is an important factor to extrapolate as ticket prices are going up for Eternals. Let us see how things go. runrate wise its below BW at similar point but that is negated against increased ticket prices. Plus BW did not have ontario market in its release week. Let us monitor how things go. 

 

MTC2 start was weaker than BW but let us see if it has caught up. @Menor hopefully provides an update today. 

I am traveling. Will update when I am home (tomorrow). I did take a run yesterday but forgot to post with Halloween taking up attention. It was 18720 for Thu and 12238 for Fri, so Thu is running about 70% of BW like the first day, and Fri is running about even with BW.

 

As far as the final week discussion in this thread, BW's final week was not as bad as NTTD but the bumps and walkup trends were a lot worse than SC. I would expect Eternals to do closer to the latter since they are new characters, but we'll see.

 

Edited October 16, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

It would be surprising if Eternals final weak was as good as SC, but also if it was as bad as BW. I will probably be using a 2:1 weighted mix toward SC when the time comes.

[keysersoze123]

HK Sat -279910/742704 3932827.76 4622 shows. Saturday MTC1 share goes down even more and so it has done enough to stay flat or increase a bit. 18m saturday.  Should be enough to hit 50m for 3 days. 

[Eric Duncan]

22 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	1012	7031	14.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 87

 

Comp

0.887x of F9 T-6 (6.3M)

0.353x of Black Widow T-6 (4.66M)

2.195x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (9M)

0.605x of Shang-Chi T-6 (5.32M)

0.906x of Venom 2 T-6 (10.51M)

0.888x of No Time to Die T-6 (5.6M)

 

Okay, now things are looking up. Now we're gold like Rapunzel's hair. Timmy stans are eating good!

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	1064	7031	15.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

Comp

0.822x of F9 T-5 (5.84M)

0.347x of Black Widow T-5 (4.58M)

2.082x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (8.54M)

0.595x of Shang-Chi T-5 (5.24M)

0.838x of Venom 2 T-5 (9.72M)

0.875x of No Time to Die T-5 (5.51M)

 

Don't know why today was so awful, but it seems like it's a fluke to my area compared to other people's posts for today.