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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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46 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

A lot of different things are possible from here, especially if reviews are soft. ButI am still sort of thinking 14+ with better final week growth and ATP than BW.

 

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its PS is more than 90% in gross compared to NTTD. Similar walkups should take it close to 15m but let us see how things go. Should be suffice for OW around low to mid 40s.

Friday+Previews multiplier for OW were

2.0 for BW & 2.4 for NTTD

 

Assuming about $5.3 previews

$14m Friday gets

BW model ~$39m OW

NTTD model ~$46m OW

 

$16m Friday gets

BW model ~$43m OW

NTTD model ~$50m OW

 

I'm definitely skewing toward the NTTD OW growth. Compared to BW's hybrid release Dune has better WOM and ATP, though might loose with walkups? Though NTTD was theater exclusive, Dune will most likely have better walkups, WOM, and ATP while DaD drags it down. Maybe a zero-sum game with NTTD.

 

It can go either way, but I'm putting higher probabilities that it's closer to $50m than $40m weekend...and wouldn't be surprised if it breaks $50m, though very excited in that case. Sticking to my guns with the $45-50m OW prediction.

 

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10 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Friday+Previews multiplier for OW were

2.0 for BW & 2.4 for NTTD

 

Assuming about $5.3 previews

$14m Friday gets

BW model ~$39m OW

NTTD model ~$46m OW

 

$16m Friday gets

BW model ~$43m OW

NTTD model ~$50m OW

 

I'm definitely skewing toward the NTTD OW growth. Compared to BW's hybrid release Dune has better WOM and ATP, though might loose with walkups? Though NTTD was theater exclusive, Dune will most likely have better walkups, WOM, and ATP while DaD drags it down. Maybe a zero-sum game with NTTD.

 

It can go either way, but I'm putting higher probabilities that it's closer to $50m than $40m weekend...and wouldn't be surprised if it breaks $50m, though very excited in that case. Sticking to my guns with the $45-50m OW prediction.

 

 I believe Let there be Legion when they said 14M they meant 14M previews for Eternals and nothing to do with Dune OW.  Its a bit ambiguous. Maybe they can clarify.

Edited by Ronin46
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Yeah I was talking Eternals previews, pure coincidence that they are in same range as Dune True Fri.  

 

As far as projecting from a preview+a true Fri, I highly recommend you look at (ow-prev)/(true Fri) rather than OW/(prev+true Fri).

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12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 I believe Let there be Legion when they said 14M they meant 14M previews for Eternals and nothing to do with Dune OW.  Its a bit ambiguous. Maybe they can clarify.

You are right. Sorry for the misquote there. However it doesn't change the overall analysis there and comparisons with BW & NTTD for Dune's OW. My idea was to analyse the different range there with different Friday numbers from $14m to $16m and then easy to extrapolate if lower or higher.

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18 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

As far as projecting from a preview+a true Fri, I highly recommend you look at (ow-prev)/(true Fri) rather than OW/(prev+true Fri).

 

41 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Friday+Previews multiplier for OW were

2.0 for BW & 2.4 for NTTD

 

Assuming about $5.3 previews

$14m Friday gets

BW model ~$39m OW

NTTD model ~$46m OW

 

$16m Friday gets

BW model ~$43m OW

NTTD model ~$50m OW

 

Copy that. Here are new numbers. BW model numbers get higher and NTTD almost the same. Oh, forgot to add the "must see in cinema" marketing with Dune (the trailers already communicate that) that also should play in Dune's favor compared to BW. We'll know soon enough...

 

(OW-prev)/(true Fri) for were

2.56 for BW & 2.88 for NTTD

 

Assuming about $5.3 previews &

$14m true Friday gets

BW model ~$41m OW

NTTD model ~$46m OW

 

$16m true Friday gets

BW model ~$46m OW

NTTD model ~$51m OW

 

(OW's including previews here)

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42 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

You are right. Sorry for the misquote there. However it doesn't change the overall analysis there and comparisons with BW & NTTD for Dune's OW. My idea was to analyse the different range there with different Friday numbers from $14m to $16m and then easy to extrapolate if lower or higher.

 

No problem. I would just be a little hesitant. I think Menor figures (MTC2) were indicating 11 to 12 and Keyser (MTC1) were 14 to 15. So its far from a lock that its 14 to 15. It may very well be 12 perhaps. From the figures Friday has always looked super strong so even if it is 15 it may not hold that well due to the reasons discussed many times.

Anyway its looks promising that walk ups were better than NTTD and that should mean we get high 30s at least and maybe low 40s which is a lot better than how it looked a few days before. 

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22 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

No problem. I would just be a little hesitant. I think Menor figures (MTC2) were indicating 11 to 12 and Keyser (MTC1) were 14 to 15. So its far from a lock that its 14 to 15. It may very well be 12 perhaps. From the figures Friday has always looked super strong so even if it is 15 it may not hold that well due to the reasons discussed many times.

Anyway its looks promising that walk ups were better than NTTD and that should mean we get high 30s at least and maybe low 40s which is a lot better than how it looked a few days before. 

Yes, definitely not a sure thing. A game of probabilities as always and from my hat I could draw estimates of 50% chance Fri hits between $14-16m, 30% chance it's lower, and 20% that it's higher. But it's a totally fair point that based on reason discussed many times like the DaD's uncertain impact, the midpoint of these probabilities can be much lower than $14-16 or $14-15. It's interesting to see how it goes.

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14 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Ron's Gone Wrong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 25 87 3122 2.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.455x of Addams Family 2 (250K)

 

Well...it was a good bump...I guess.

I CALLED IT

 

 

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@katnisscinnaplex nailed RGW several days ago.... 

 

 

On 10/18/2021 at 2:32 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales* % Sold
T-17 Eternals Jacksonville 6 47 7,996 419 63 5.24%
    Phoenix 6 35 5,949 369 71 6.20%
    Raleigh 7 26 3,094 396 65 12.80%
  Eternals Total   19 108 17,039 1,184 199 6.95%
T-3 Dune Jacksonville 7 39 6,545 427 99 6.52%
    Phoenix 6 22 3,588 400 127 11.15%
    Raleigh 8 21 2,915 352 131 12.08%
  Dune Total   21 82 13,048 1,179 357 9.04%
T-3 Ron's Gone Wrong Jacksonville 4 6 852 1 1 0.12%
    Phoenix 6 10 1,303 3 3 0.23%
    Raleigh 6 8 991 13 13 1.31%
  Ron's Gone Wrong Total   16 24 3,146 17 17 0.54%

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Dune comps

Venom 2 - .739x (8.57m)

F9 - .814x (5.78m)

 

Average - 7.17m

 

I don't really have anything this low for kids movies.  Addams had 39 at this point, but with 4pm start which would be 240k.

 

Eternals comps

BW T-17 - .718x (9.48m)

Shang-Chi hadn't even gone on sell yet and day 7 would be t-10 so I'm not sure about using that comp until a few more days have passed.

 

 

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11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not 100% sure about my bond final. I have it at 96921/510183 1594243.41 but it could be missing few shows of data. Anyway Dune is tad up from it. Anyway I went with SS to project as it was skewed towards MTC1. MTC2 should make pause but overperformance in canada/megaplex makes me think it will go up a bit from what MTC2 is saying. We will know for sure tomorrow. 

Is it true that I am seeing NTTD has bigger showcount than Dune in preview?

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25 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is it true that I am seeing NTTD has bigger showcount than Dune in preview?

Way wider. it had close to 3K shows just at MTC1. But Dune has enough shows on friday to have a solid day. Key thing is how walkups are. Yesterday it was not horrible but not that good either. I am thinking low teens friday(without previews). 

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10 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex Friday(170 showings)

 

6366(+925)/45490(+486) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 16.15M

Black Widow comp: 19.60M

 

I may have to take back what I said about this being the second biggest opener of the year for Megaplex. NTTD will beat it with this pace. Still gonna be close though

Dune Megaplex Friday(170 showings)

 

6889(+523)/45490 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 15.87M

 

It'll should still be stronger here than nationally, so I doubt it'll reach 15M+. Judging by the pace, walkups will be weaker than NTTD. I'm hoping for 13M

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19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Way wider. it had close to 3K shows just at MTC1. But Dune has enough shows on friday to have a solid day. Key thing is how walkups are. Yesterday it was not horrible but not that good either. I am thinking low teens friday(without previews). 

 

I was thinking is it because of the lack of IMAX/PLF showtimes that causing the late-night slow down, since the walk-ups likely to benefit IMAX/PLFs for Dune.

 

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex Friday(170 showings)

 

6889(+523)/45490 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 15.87M

 

It'll should still be stronger here than nationally, so I doubt it'll reach 15M+. Judging by the pace, walkups will be weaker than NTTD. I'm hoping for 13M

 NTTD walk ups is already bad enough, But on 2nd thought, NTTD did achieve 10x from pure preview so Dune having weaker walk ups than NTTD is kind of make sense here. Maybe IMAX//PLFs exhausted most of the demand and standard screen didn't receive much spillover like  other standard release. 

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On 10/15/2021 at 9:41 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

US showtimes sample for 10/15 weekend

 

Movie Theaters Showtimes Standard PLF
Halloween kills 3,143 92,661 92,661 0
No Time to Die 3,446 62,946 59,009 3,937
Venom 2 3,214 60,099 59,358 741
Addams Family 2 2,984 35,537 35,537 0
The Last Duel 2,731 32,124 32,124 0
Shang-Chi 1,954 19,839 19,839 0
Lamb 749 7,003 7,003 0
The Rescue 541 6,423 6,423 0
Free Guy 828 6,014 6,014 0
Dear Evan Hanson 641 3,545 3,545 0
Candyman 471 3,091 3,091 0
Many Saints of Newark 354 1,759 1,759 0
Jungle Cruise 189 1,193 1,193 0

 

Future previews show counts

 

T-1 Week

Dune - 7,088

Ron's Gone Wrong - 3,049

French Dispatch - 100

 

T-2 Weeks

French Dispatch (expansion) - 506

Last Night in Soho (Wed shows) - 153

Last Night in Soho (Thu shows) - 2,315

Antlers - 1,045

 

T-3 Weeks

Eternals - 8,959

US showtimes sample for 10/22 weekend

 

Movie Theaters Showtimes Change Standard IMAX 3D Dolby
Dune 3,318 82,661   70,556 3,198 6,760 2,147
Halloween Kills 3,077 56,222 -39.33% 56,044 0 0 178
Ron's Gone Wrong 2,994 42,887   42,359 0 405 123
Venom 2 2,859 37,360 -37.84% 36,993 0 253 114
No Time to Die 3,043 33,989 -46.00% 33,797 21 55 116
Addams Family 2 2,402 25,442 -28.41% 25,332 0 0 110
The Last Duel 2,729 24,433 -23.94% 24,376 0 0 57
Shang-Chi 1,321 12,529 -36.85% 12,496 0 0 33
The Harder they Fall 498 5,792   5,771 0 0 21
Becoming Cousteau 310 3,927   3,927 0 0 0
Free Guy 341 2,228 -62.95% 2,220 0 0 8
Lamb 349 1,506 -78.49% 1,506 0 0 0
The French Dispatch 55 1,447   1,447 0 0 0
Dear Evan Hansen 164 861 -75.71% 861 0 0 0
Candyman 127 763 -75.32% 763 0 0 0
Jungle Cruise 95 589 -50.63% 589 0 0 0
Cry Macho 45 316 -72.40% 316 0 0 0

 

After the confusion last week, I decided to spice up my showtimes report.  After a lot of tinkering, I've found a way to parse out the Dolby shows from the Standard shows and split up IMAX and 3D shows as well.  I've also added a column to indicate the total show count change from the previous weekend.  New releases include preview shows, and as such, 2nd weekend drops will reflect their loss. 

 

Future release show counts

 

T-1 Week

Last Night in Soho (Wed) - 154 (All Dolby)

Last Night in Soho (Wed-Sun) - 20,460

Antlers - 17,679

My Hero Academia - 14,978

The French Dispatch - 3,716

Mouthful of Air - 427

 

T-2 Weeks

Eternals (previews) - 9,541 (589 IMAX, 1243 3D, 340 Dolby)

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