The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How on earth would sunday matter for online ticket sales!!! Venom 2 had ginormous boost sunday before and without any reviews. I did not track BW on its review release date but that week was huge. its pace was 2x what I see for eternals at this point. That is why I said expectations for this is out of whack relative to trend. Meh reviews wont help at all. 

There was a bump on Monday of this week for BW MTC2. Don't know about 1.

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, Menor said:

There was a bump on Monday of this week for BW MTC2. Don't know about 1.

Ok. I only updated on thursday and so I dont know about review embargo date(which was tuesday 29th June if I am not wrong). Hopefully you will see some improvement tomorrow. 

[WrathOfHan]

MHA going over 10M would probably mean Jujutsu Kaisen can do 15-20M when it opens in a few months. Great time for anime movies.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Could MHA challenge for #1? Dune will be 14m, possibly lower.

 

I think MHA will top Soho despite Soho being in 2000 more theaters 

[Eric Atreides]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

MHA going over 10M would probably mean Jujutsu Kaisen can do 15-20M when it opens in a few months. Great time for anime movies.

Nerd.

[ThomasNicole]

Eternals reviews are nothing special to bump sales this early (i think).

 

Very sad to see that Soho probably will be another failure, i'm very excited about this one. The French Dispatch did great limited release but i'm afraid will also flop when expand, which is also very sad. 

 

I hope things turn out better for smaller movies next year, we can't rely only on blockbusters.

[babz06]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Could MHA challenge for #1? Dune will be 14m, possibly lower.

 

I think MHA will top Soho despite Soho being in 2000 more theaters 

You think Dune is going to drop that big? over 65%? 

[Jamiem]

3 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Nerd.

Is that an acronym for Never Ending Respect Deserved? 

[filmlover]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Eternals reviews are nothing special to bump sales this early (i think).

 

Very sad to see that Soho probably will be another failure, i'm very excited about this one. The French Dispatch did great limited release but i'm afraid will also flop when expand, which is also very sad. 

 

I hope things turn out better for smaller movies next year, we can't rely only on blockbusters.

I doubt Soho goes nearly as low as, say, The Last Duel since Edgar Wright has a pretty devoted (if rather niche - Baby Driver's breakout was clearly an exception and not the rule) audience that's been waiting for it since it was announced that's sure to turn out for it on opening weekend. Just won't do much more than that, which honestly seems expected for a horror movie that looks both too creepy for the prestige audience and too "arthouse" for the jump scare crowd.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I doubt Soho goes nearly as low as, say, The Last Duel since Edgar Wright has a pretty devoted (if rather niche - Baby Driver's breakout was clearly an exception and not the rule) audience that's been waiting for it since it was announced that's sure to turn out for it on opening weekend. Just won't do much more than that, which honestly seems expected for a horror movie that looks both too creepy for the prestige audience and too "arthouse" for the jump scare crowd.

I was hoping for at least 15M few weeks ago, but yeah maybe 10 is more realistic.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

8 minutes ago, babz06 said:

You think Dune is going to drop that big? over 65%? 

It’ll drop 60% because HBOMAX. Thats 16m. 14-16 seems fair 

[babz06]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It’ll drop 60% because HBOMAX. Thats 16m. 14-16 seems fair 

Or it could have a sub-60 drop like GvK and The Conjuring 3. We shall see.

Edited October 25, 2021 by babz06

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	13384	15541	2157	13.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	187.73		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		16.52m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Eternals' tickets have been on sale for seven more days than Shang-Chi' tickets have been on sale.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	74.76		94	2658		0/119	16602/19260	13.80%		10.33m
Eternals (adj)	---		67	1987		0/87	12221/14208	13.99%		---

COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 491/4570 [10.74% sold] [+21 tickets]

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	13301	15541	2240	14.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	183.46		72	1221		0/101	15781/17002	7.18%		16.14m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Eternals' tickets have been on sale for seven more days than Shang-Chi' tickets have been on sale.

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	74.19		108	2766		0/119	16494/19260	14.36%		10.25m
Eternals (adj)	---		65	2052		0/87	12156/14208	14.44%		---

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Eternals (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 505/4570 [11.05% sold] [+16 tickets]

 

====

 

Muted review bounce here in Sacto.  Pretty uneven as well, as it was dominated by spurts at individual theaters as opposed to steady sales everywhere.

 

Weather is pretty nasty today though, so it's possible folks just weren't in the mood to buy tickets.  Either way next to no bounce here for now.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

On 4/17/2021 at 3:37 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Demon Slayer(T-5)

MTC1 - 46438/302394 691458.00 1717 shows(302 theatres) +5088 // 156 sellouts and 296 shows have not sold any tickets

MTC2 - 51162/272662 713060.93 2025 shows(271 theatres) +4857 // 186 sellouts and 148 shows have not sold any tickets

 

Solid increase though its lower than yesterday. May be its a sign of frontloading? Amazing thing is in $ value its still slightly above GVK. I am not updating my prediction as there is not enough data to update. I will update MK and DS D2 tomorrow.

 

 

 

On 4/18/2021 at 2:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mortal Kombat(T-5)

MTC1 - 35245/483505 503918.00 2344 shows(424 theatres) // 66 sellouts

MTC2 - 34293/416785 420226.57 2671 shows(294 theatres) // 52 sellouts

 

Demon Slayer Day 2

MTC1 - 48091/271269 620763.00 1759 shows(358 theatres) // 273 sellouts

MTC2 -  37050/181304 503914.33 1377 shows(268 theatres) // 173 sellouts

 

Slightly over day and half of data. 

 

DS comps.   
 

MHA is at 60% of DS previews in gross, 85% of Friday. Those comp to like 2.3 and 4.8, but there is a lot to be careful with here:

DS way more anticipated property, as reflected in almost 3x higher sales for Th+Fri

In many places capacity was getting maxed, which hurt its PSm

MHA may also easily have capacity issues given much greater competition

DS was back during the ending stages of the spring pandemic, and regal was closed, screwing with MTC ratios

 

Geomean of the comps is 3.3M (also the result of a straight comp on Th+Fr), suppose final 5 days PS growth*PSm is a little better and MTC2 ratio lower, could go for 4.5+ OD?  
 

Hero’s Rising lost half its locs on Sunday, afaik that won’t be an issue here but hopefully a scraper can confirm. Without that I estimate FSS would have gone:

1.87

2.59

2

 

For a true IM of 3.5 or so. In this case Friday will be more frontloaded since it’s day 1 instead of day 3, though also Sat will be Day 2 instead of day 4 with less demand burned off. Maybe 3x? 
 

TL;dr Yesterday I said the following to Menor

Quote

Could we get an MHA run tomorrow? Seems to be no previews Friday release, which the 2019 one could have done maybe 7M+ from. And World Heroes Mission opened much larger in Japan than previous 2, like +60%.

 

I expect screen space issues this weekend but it could be competitive to beat Soho and enter the top 3 or even higher.

The really crude lots of napkin math Hero’s Rising comp gives like 12. PS also have that as possible imo though also crude. Expecting it to be somewhat close to winning the weekend at least.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

49 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Or it could have a sub-60 drop like GvK and The Conjuring 3. We shall see.

GVK has a 5 day OW. The drop would have been bigger otherwise 

[john2000]

Hopefully eternals start to pick up

[Fox20]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

MHA going over 10M would probably mean Jujutsu Kaisen can do 15-20M when it opens in a few months. Great time for anime movies.

Jujutsu is not even close in popularity to MHA in America. ( which for some reason feels even bigger than in Japan )

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales*	% Sold
T-3	Last Night in Soho (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	395	35	12	8.86%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	2	0	0.96%
	Soho (Wed) Total		3	3	603	37	12	6.14%
T-4	Antlers	Jacksonville	5	9	1,326	5	4	0.38%
		Phoenix	7	14	1,341	24	18	1.79%
		Raleigh	6	7	613	9	5	1.47%
	Antlers Total		18	30	3,280	38	27	1.16%
T-4	Last Night in Soho	Jacksonville	7	13	1,708	19	7	1.11%
		Phoenix	7	12	1,324	22	2	1.66%
		Raleigh	7	8	807	16	8	1.98%
	Last Night in Soho Total		21	33	3,839	57	17	1.48%
T-5	My Hero Academia	Jacksonville	4	23	3,891	316	316	8.12%
		Phoenix	6	11	1,341	301	301	22.45%
		Raleigh	7	23	2,707	275	275	10.16%
	My Hero Academia Total		17	57	7,939	892	892	11.24%

*New sales are since Thursday morning

 

About to walk out the door but wanted to drop some numbers since I ran them.  MHA looks like another big hit - should be VERY pre-sales heavy and, with no previews, that means a big Friday.  Antlers has almost sold as many tickets as Soho's Wed + Thu which is a little surprising.  

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-10	Eternals*	Jacksonville	6	47	7,996	546	93	6.83%
		Phoenix	6	35	5,949	537	94	9.03%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,339	583	103	17.46%
	Eternals Total		20	111	17,284	1,666	290	9.64%
T-2	Last Night in Soho (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	395	36	1	9.11%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	4	2	1.92%
	Soho (Wed) Total		3	3	603	40	3	6.63%
T-3	Antlers	Jacksonville	5	9	1,326	5	0	0.38%
		Phoenix	7	14	1,341	26	2	1.94%
		Raleigh	6	7	613	9	0	1.47%
	Antlers Total		18	30	3,280	40	2	1.22%
T-3	Last Night in Soho	Jacksonville	7	13	1,708	21	2	1.23%
		Phoenix	7	12	1,324	29	7	2.19%
		Raleigh	7	8	807	22	6	2.73%
	Last Night in Soho Total		21	33	3,839	72	15	1.88%
T-4	My Hero Academia	Jacksonville	4	23	3,891	343	27	8.82%
		Phoenix	6	11	1,341	321	20	23.94%
		Raleigh	7	23	2,707	305	30	11.27%
	My Hero Academia Total		17	57	7,939	969	77	12.21%

*Eternals new sales are since Thursday morning

 

Soho comps

Old - .72x (1.08m)

Reminiscence - 1.95x (1.32m)

 

Antlers comps

Malignant - .513x (1.03m)

Don't Breathe 2 - 1.33 (1.29m)

 

I've got these pretty close at the moment.  Soho will get a boost from Wednesday shows while Antlers could get a Halloween boost.

 

My Hero Academia comps

....

 

Okay, I don't have anything for this in my limited data set.  Just looking at total sales for T-4, here are some close totals:

 

F9 - 1,241

No Time to Die - 993

MHA - 969

Halloween Kills - 717

Space Jam - 629

Dune was at 1,179 on T-3 (didn't get T-4) so it was likely close as well.

 

Eternals comps

BW - .714x (9.43m)

Shang-Chi - 1.94x (17.07m)

TSS - 5.517x (22.62m)

 

Okay, maybe it's still too early for the Shang-Chi comp? This would be seven days of sales so I thought it would have caught up a bit.   BW seems to be the only legit comp I have for this.  Venom comp would put it at 28.7m so I scrapped that immediately.

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Hero’s Rising lost half its locs on Sunday, afaik that won’t be an issue here but hopefully a scraper can confirm.

 

	Theaters	Showtimes
MHA Fri	1366	5065
MHA Sat	1356	5182
MHA Sun	1350	4790

 

Confirmed.

[CJohn]

How screwed is everything for Eternals?