The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Danhjpn]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I.... I don't think reviews/impressions from a bunch of Twitter Randos moved the needle one iota.  I personally think it was just normal Marvel expansion at this stage of the game.

 

(Helped locally a bit from not being in the middle of a monsoon)

 

I would note that most of the BW comps barely budged from what I can tell. 

Why there is always a big gap between BW comp and SC comp? 

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

Regal: 5285/4570 [11.55% sold] [+23 tickets]

That is out of the world awesome level of sales at Regal. 

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The pace is barely 40% of Demon Slayer at same time, overall sales being 57% in MTC 2. Hopefully @keysersoze123 give us some numbers. 

 

@katnisscinnaplex does those show counts include Canada?

I am not tracking it. I doubt it will even hit double digits. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is out of the world awesome level of sales at Regal. 

For a moment I thought, woah we cracked MTC3. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

Why there is always a big gap between BW comp and SC comp? 

 

Black Widow had more days of pre-sales than Eternals

Eternals had more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I am not tracking it. I doubt it will even hit double digits. 

👍

MTC2 looked like $3M OD, so not out of realm of possibility.

[el sid]

Antlers, counted today at 6am EST for Friday, October 29:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 22 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 7 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 24 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 17 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 76 .
Up 77% since yesterday (easier on such a low level).
Antlers improved in the comps: The Night House (2.9M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday 72 sold tickets in 6 theaters

and Malignant (5.4M OW) had on Tuesday for Friday 125 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
 

Last Night in Soho, counted today at 6am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 1 (4 very new showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 29 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 71 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 53 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 157.

25% up since yesterday.
Comp: Reminiscence (2M OW) had on Tuesday for Friday 184 sold tickets in 7 theaters (this comp is a bit unfair because Reminiscence had way more time in the AMC in NY, should look different tomorrow)
and Old (16.9M OW) had on Wednesday 262 sold tickets for Friday.
 

My Hero Academia, counted today at 6am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 4 (6 very new showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 148 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 29 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 62 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 176 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 419.

Up only 4% since yesterday.
Comps (always counted on Tuesday for Friday): Paw Patrol had 200 sold tickets in 6 theaters
and Dune (41.0M OW) had 2.919 sold tickets.
That's still a good number for a Tuesday but this small jump reminds me of the performance of Paw Patrol where the Monday looked great in comparison but then it lost ground every day.
On Thursday I have Sonic the Hedgehog (58.0M OW) numbers (it had 2.103 sold tickets for Friday).

The French Dispatch still has only showtimes in the AMC in LA. Today it had 26 (3 shows) and 20 (7 shows) sold tickets for Thursday respectively Friday.

Edited October 26, 2021 by el sid

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is out of the world awesome level of sales at Regal. 

 

That deviant has now been pruned.  Thank you for doing your duty in protecting the Sacred Timeline, Citizen.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow had more days of pre-sales than Eternals

Eternals had more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi

I think its late enough to that stop mattering. Also IIRC Sacramento over indexed for BW. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

That variant has now been pruned.  Thank you for doing your duty in protecting the Sacred Timeline, Citizen.

[keysersoze123]

BW definitely started to amp up this week. Eternals does not have a catalyst to amp up this week as reviews did not do that much. I think Disney needs to up the ante on marketing. Are we seeing tv spots during MLB/NBA/NFL games?

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think its late enough to that stop mattering. Also IIRC Sacramento over indexed for BW. 

 

Nope.  Not yet. At least for Shang-Chi. Every local tracker is showing the same thing.  There's a reason the Shang-Chi comp is in free fall on all trackers.

 

As for Black Widow?  Eh, even if the pace has stabilized those extra three days still matter on the overall comp.

 

As for Sacto over-indexing?  At the time I over-adjusted for F9 and AQP II under a faulty presumption of how the movie going industry was recovering.  Aside from that, I'm not sure it did any worse or better than a standard Marvel film here, as if I recall correctly, at the end it pointed to a pretty accurate result for both Shang-Chi and Let There Be Carnage.

 

*checks*

 

BW comp was 11.8 for V2 and 8.9 for SC (instead of 11.6 and 8.8), after adjusting for Ontario.  Mind that isn't accounting for SMG being flaky, so as I check my home sheets, I come up with 8.8m for SC and 11.6m which is...

 

Pretty exact, aksually. 

 

(Full Disclosure:  SC comp: 8.78m | V2: 11.59m)

 

Okay, that's more luck than anything else.  But if BW over-indexed here, then so did SC and V2.  Checking out the local patterns of sales I'm not quite sure why ET won't over-index to a similar degree.

Edited October 26, 2021 by Porthos

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BW definitely started to amp up this week. Eternals does not have a catalyst to amp up this week as reviews did not do that much. I think Disney needs to up the ante on marketing. Are we seeing tv spots during MLB/NBA/NFL games?

I've seen a flurry of ads for it these past few weeks across TV. If it underperforms, it certainly won't be due to lack of marketing.

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 

Details details.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

instead of 11.6 and 8.8, after adjusting for Ontario.

I am sorry that you are using 95.5% to adjust ON, but that was Pre-CoVID ratio.

 

Currently entire Canada is more like 6%, ON may be 2.5%. However SC overindexed in Canada with opening day of $2.85M (9.7%).

 

And then there was whole East coast underperformance for SC due to Ida. Then there's ATP adjustment to do of atleast 5%.

 

It is coincidence and the good luck charm that Sacramento comp has that it somehow turn up being right to T.

 

BW previews in US were $12.8M, 65% of those be $8.3M, adjusting for 5% higher ATP gives $8.7M, but IDA probably took some of that away. 

 

+ $0.9M in Canada.

 

So SC overindexed even more than BW 🤷‍♂️

Edited October 26, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am sorry that you are using 95.5% to adjust ON, but that was Pre-CoVID ratio.

 

Currently entire Canada is more like 6%, ON may be 2.5%. However SC overindexed in Canada with opening day of $2.85M (9.7%).

 

And then there was whole East coast underperformance for SC due to Ida. Then there's ATP adjustment to do of atleast 5%.

 

It is coincidence and the good luck charm that Sacramento comp has that it somehow turn up being right to T.

 

BW previews in US were $12.8M, 65% of those be $8.3M, adjusting for 5% higher ATP gives $8.7M, but IDA probably took some of that away. 

 

+ $0.9M in Canada.

 

So SC overindexed even more than BW 🤷‍♂️

 

Even if we dump BW for reasons (and thus no longer adjust for Ontario) given the type of movie Eternals is, I don't see much reason why Shang-Chi won't be a good comp for it at the end of the day given the demos of the Sacramento market.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Even if we dump BW for reasons (and thus no longer adjust for Ontario) given the type of movie Eternals is, I don't see much reason why Shang-Chi won't be a good comp for it at the end of the day given the demos of the Sacramento market.

Naa Naa. SC & BW are best comp, given some mental gymnastics. And I am sure whatever Sacramento tells on final day will eventually be the number. At this moment its dark magic.😁

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Naa Naa. SC & BW are best comp, given some mental gymnastics. And I am sure whatever Sacramento tells on final day will eventually be the number. At this moment its dark magic.😁

 

To be completely honest with you, given the inherent volatility of any one movie release and all the moving pieces, if Sacto comes within .5m in either direction, I'll personally consider it "good enough" even if I can't have any bragging rights on the board about it.

 

In the end, this is all dark arts and magic.

[exomassey]

I’ve seen some tweets while scrolling through Twitter saying Cineplex in Toronto have cancelled some Eternals IMAX screenings.

[lorddemaxus]

59 minutes ago, exomassey said:

I’ve seen some tweets while scrolling through Twitter saying Cineplex in Toronto have cancelled some Eternals IMAX screenings.

Seems like they got replaced by Dune screenings.