The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

On 10/25/2021 at 10:53 PM, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	13177	15541	2364	15.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

124

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	172.55		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		15.18m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Eternals' tickets have been on sale for seven more days than Shang-Chi' tickets have been on sale.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	74.17		142	2908		0/119	16352/19260	15.10%		10.25m
Eternals (adj)	---		105	2157		0/87	12051/14208	15.18%		---

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Eternals (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 528/4570 [11.55% sold] [+23 tickets]

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	99	13201	15686	2485	15.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3*
Total Seats Added Today	145
Total Seats Sold Today	121

* Includes two showings from the local drive-in theater.

 

T-9 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	166.55		122	1492		0/108	15995/17487	8.53%		14.66m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Eternals' tickets have been on sale for seven more days than Shang-Chi' tickets have been on sale.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	73.43		171	3079		0/122	16185/19264	15.98%		10.15m
Eternals (adj)	---		104	2261		0/90	12092/14353	15.75%		---

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Eternals (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 532/4715 [11.28% sold] [+4 tickets]

 

===

 

Today was Black Widow's review drop day, so all in all the BW comp didn't take as much of a hit as it could have.  Pace isn't exactly great though, as it's pretty much stagnant from yesterday. 

 

Starting tomorrow, those Cinema West locations start to be rolled back into the BW comp (two tomorrow, the last on Thur), so starting Thursday the BW comp will be unadjusted once again, and might jump around a bit due to the extra info being added to the comps.

 

Not much else to add, as everyone else has pretty much already said it.

[MCKillswitch123]

7 hours ago, riveredge said:

According to Deadline, Soho is tracking around 5m OW. Any chance for the movie to go at least 10m? 

 

I feel like the tracking here points at something more like 8m.

[Menor the Destroyer]

From last night (24-hour pace, posted late):

 

Eternals MTC2

 

Thurs:

Showtimes: 1967 (+11)

Seats Sold: 34868/320362 (+2011)

Total $ Sales: 494838 (+15705)

 

BW Comp (adjusted for Ontario and ~10% higher ATP): 10.35 million

 

Bleh. The comp is in an okay spot right now but it's going to take a beating this week unless the pace improves. The pace was indeed up from yesterday but needs to keep going up, and from everyone else's numbers I'm not sure that's happening.

 

Fri:

Showtimes: 3720 (+1)

Seats Sold: 26684/622149 (+2085)

Total $ Sales: 357076 (+26479)

 

BW Comp (Ontario + ATP adjusted): 23.3 million. 

 

In a bit of a better spot than Thurs, but will still have trouble if the pace doesn't improve fast. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 10/25/2021 at 10:47 PM, Menor said:

Subbed Showtimes: 603 (+23)

Subbed Seats Sold: 11774/89614 (+736)

Subbed $ Sales: 162644 (+8925)

 

Dubbed Showtimes: 771 (+63)

Dubbed Seats Sold: 20531/110540 (+1341)

Dubbed $ Sales:  290974 (+17141)

 

Combined Showtimes: 1374 (+86)

Combined Seats Sold: 32305/200154 (+2077)

Combined $ Sales: 453618 (+26066)

 

Even more PS heavy than I expected.

MHA MTC2 Friday

 

Subbed Showtimes: 761 (+158)

Subbed Seats Sold: 12842/107558 (+1068)

Subbed $ Sales: 173835 (+11191)

 

Dubbed Showtimes: 1282 (+511)

Dubbed Seats Sold: 22591/171248(+2060)

Dubbed $ Sales:  317936 (+26962)

 

Combined Showtimes: 2043 (+669)

Combined Seats Sold: 35433/278806 (+3138)

Combined $ Sales: 491771 (+38153)

 

Tonight I will take Sat numbers as well. 

[Danhjpn]

BW is an already established character so that movie of course has higher presale, no?  

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Last Night in Soho (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	395	40	4	10.13%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	6	2	2.88%
	Soho (Wed) Total		3	3	603	46	6	7.63%
T-2	Antlers	Jacksonville	5	9	1,326	15	10	1.13%
		Phoenix	7	14	1,341	31	5	2.31%
		Raleigh	7	10	925	14	5	1.51%
	Antlers Total		19	33	3,592	60	20	1.67%
T-2	Last Night in Soho	Jacksonville	7	13	1,708	30	9	1.76%
		Phoenix	7	12	1,324	32	3	2.42%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,068	38	16	3.56%
	Last Night in Soho Total		21	34	4,100	100	28	2.44%
T-3	My Hero Academia	Jacksonville	4	23	3,891	394	51	10.13%
		Phoenix	6	13	1,658	349	28	21.05%
		Raleigh	7	31	3,309	337	32	10.18%
	My Hero Academia Total		17	67	8,858	1,080	111	12.19%
T-9	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	47	7,996	587	41	7.34%
		Phoenix	6	35	5,949	585	48	9.83%
		Raleigh	8	33	3,717	618	35	16.63%
	Eternals Total		20	115	17,662	1,790	124	10.13%

 

Soho comps

Old - .76x (1.14m)

Reminiscence - 2.17x (1.48m)

 

Antlers comps

Malignant - missed t-2

Escape Room 2 - .588x (706k)

Don't Breathe 2 - 1.15 (1.11m)

 

MHA T-3 total sales comps

F9 - 1,448

Dune - 1,179

MHA - 1,080

Space Jam - 998

Halloween Kills - 859

 

Eternals comps

BW - .73x (9.64m)

Shang-Chi - 1.83x (16.14m)

 

TSS and Venom comps went up...so that's where we're at.  

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Last Night in Soho (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	395	45	5	11.39%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	8	2	3.85%
	Soho (Wed) Total		3	3	603	53	7	8.79%
T-1	Antlers	Jacksonville	6	13	1,588	18	3	1.13%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,571	40	9	2.55%
		Raleigh	7	9	949	15	1	1.58%
	Antlers Total		20	39	4,108	73	13	1.78%
T-1	Last Night in Soho	Jacksonville	7	14	1,835	48	18	2.62%
		Phoenix	7	14	1,489	52	20	3.49%
		Raleigh	7	10	1,063	44	6	4.14%
	Last Night in Soho Total		21	38	4,387	144	44	3.28%
T-2	My Hero Academia	Jacksonville	5	32	4,690	430	36	9.17%
		Phoenix	6	24	2,969	388	39	13.07%
		Raleigh	7	39	4,071	350	13	8.60%
	My Hero Academia Total		18	95	11,730	1,168	88	9.96%
T-8	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	49	8,384	640	53	7.63%
		Phoenix	7	42	6,832	641	56	9.38%
		Raleigh	8	34	3,886	644	26	16.57%
	Eternals Total		21	125	19,102	1,925	135	10.08%

 

Soho comps

Old - .713x (1.07m)

Reminiscence - 1.97x (1.34m)

 

Antlers comps

Malignant - .417x (834k)

Don't Breathe 2 - .839x (810k)

 

MHA didn't increase as much as yesterday, despite adding lots of shows.  Hopefully it picks back up today.

 

Eternals comps

BW - .735x (9.706m)

Shang-Chi - 1.77x (15.58m)

[Krissykins]

Looking like sub $5m for both Soho and Antlers then?

[Legion Again]

Spoiler

 

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

MHA MTC2 Friday

 

Subbed Showtimes: 761 (+158)

Subbed Seats Sold: 12842/107558 (+1068)

Subbed $ Sales: 173835 (+11191)

 

Dubbed Showtimes: 1282 (+511)

Dubbed Seats Sold: 22591/171248(+2060)

Dubbed $ Sales:  317936 (+26962)

 

Combined Showtimes: 2043 (+669)

Combined Seats Sold: 35433/278806 (+3138)

Combined $ Sales: 491771 (+38153)

 

Tonight I will take Sat numbers as well. 

 

On 4/19/2021 at 6:58 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

Demon Slayer (T-3)

MTC1 - 58883/338825 869260.00 1997 shows (322 theatres)  +12445 // 201 sellouts

MTC2 - 61991/304361 861013.10 2327 shows(275 theatres) +10829 // 240 sellouts

 

I did not update yesterday but its definitely slowing down relative to GVK. Especially at MTC1. Good thing is its still slightly ahead in $ value due to higher ticket prices but GVK will overtake there as well as final push wont be that strong. GVK did 395K between the 2 MTC.  I think somewhere between 250-300K would be a good range. I think that will translate to 6.5-7m OD. But this movie would be hard to project as it has a niche. I could still be overestimating it big time. 

 

On 4/20/2021 at 7:48 PM, keysersoze123 said:

4/23 Friday BO

Mortal Kombat(T-3)

MTC1 -  55390/620452 764534.00 3252 shows(429 Theatres) +9959 // 135 sellouts

MTC2 - 50029/452759 610898.53 2965 shows(294 Theatres) +8283

 

Demon Slayer Friday

MTC1 - 63495/535221 818630.00 3609 shows(407 Theatres) +7476// 326 sellouts

MTC2 - 50679/324794 686766.07 2717 shows(276 theatres) +6853

 

As I posted above, dramatic increase in show counts for DS. I expect the BO to increase at faster pace in next few days. For MK the PS is chugging along very well and  it has caught up at MTC2 at least in ticket sales. But I expect DS PS to also increase at better rate soon with increased showcount. Overall BO should see a big boost.

 

MK seem to have few shows on thursday at MTC2(none at MTC1). Its at 647/17075 6158.22 103 shows(19 theatres). Almost no impact to overall OD BO. 

 

 

 

 

 

On 10/24/2021 at 11:11 PM, Avatar Legion said:

 

DS comps.   
 

MHA is at 60% of DS previews in gross, 85% of Friday. Those comp to like 2.3 and 4.8, but there is a lot to be careful with here:

DS way more anticipated property, as reflected in almost 3x higher sales for Th+Fri

In many places capacity was getting maxed, which hurt its PSm

MHA may also easily have capacity issues given much greater competition

DS was back during the ending stages of the spring pandemic, and regal was closed, screwing with MTC ratios

 

Geomean of the comps is 3.3M (also the result of a straight comp on Th+Fr), suppose final 5 days PS growth*PSm is a little better and MTC2 ratio lower, could go for 4.5+ OD?  
 

Hero’s Rising lost half its locs on Sunday, afaik that won’t be an issue here but hopefully a scraper can confirm. Without that I estimate FSS would have gone:

1.87

2.59

2

 

For a true IM of 3.5 or so. In this case Friday will be more frontloaded since it’s day 1 instead of day 3, though also Sat will be Day 2 instead of day 4 with less demand burned off. Maybe 3x? 
 

TL;dr Yesterday I said the following to Menor

The really crude lots of napkin math Hero’s Rising comp gives like 12. PS also have that as possible imo though also crude. Expecting it to be somewhat close to winning the weekend at least.

 

 

Various comps and raw data under spoiler for post length sake 😛    
 

MHA OD combined is +15% D-5 to D-3. DS previews +21%, DS OD +36%. Could conceivably have better final/D-3 despite the worse 5/3, but it’s not a great pace. Comps are now:

prev 2.2

OD 4.1 

geomean 3

combined 3  

 

Even if the straight comp drops to 2.5, should be able to do 3+ in actuality given changed MTC2 ratio. Unclear what IM will be, but I am thinking 3rd for the weekend +-1.

[filmlover]

Soho is looking to be so Dolby Cinema heavy that the format is probably gonna take it to high single digits all on its own with how dead regular showings are looking to be. Which isn't unexpected for a movie that appeals to a rather niche demographic.

[Ronin46]

From Variety

 

Antlers, Soho 5M

Dune 17 to 19

 

This year’s Halloween weekend is looking to deliver on the scares, but the month may end with a whimper rather than a bang. New nationwide releases “Last Night in Soho” and “Antlers” aren’t expected to jolt the box office, with both films tracking single-digit debuts around $5 million.

 

Without much competition, last weekend’s champion “Dune” is expected to dominate again. The Warner Bros. and Legendary sci-fi epic is projected to decline 55% from its $41 million opening weekend, which should put ticket sales around $17 million to $19 million between Friday and Sunday.

[Starphanluke]

1 hour ago, Ronin46 said:

From Variety

 

Antlers, Soho 5M

Dune 17 to 19

 

This year’s Halloween weekend is looking to deliver on the scares, but the month may end with a whimper rather than a bang. New nationwide releases “Last Night in Soho” and “Antlers” aren’t expected to jolt the box office, with both films tracking single-digit debuts around $5 million.

 

Without much competition, last weekend’s champion “Dune” is expected to dominate again. The Warner Bros. and Legendary sci-fi epic is projected to decline 55% from its $41 million opening weekend, which should put ticket sales around $17 million to $19 million between Friday and Sunday.

That Dune number feels optimistic, but maybe the sequel announcement and looming loss of theatres really will help it out this weekend (a sort of "last chance" effect). 

 

That Soho number seems low at first, but I've seen really no major marketing push for it. And tracking ITT is pointing that way, too. 

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Menor said:

BW Comp (adjusted for Ontario and ~10% higher ATP): 10.35 million

Are you expecting Eternals to end up with 10% higher ATP!!!. I looked at ticket prices between Venom/Eternals and increase is nowhere close to that. May be 3/4%. Of course a movie like Dune will have higher ATP as Imax skew was lot higher. But Eternals is big enough by the time it opens there should be no skew. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you expecting Eternals to end up with 10% higher ATP!!!. I looked at ticket prices between Venom/Eternals and increase is nowhere close to that. May be 3/4%. Of course a movie like Dune will have higher ATP as Imax skew was lot higher. But Eternals is big enough by the time it opens there should be no skew. 

BW, not Venom. BW had matinees in the summer. 

Edited October 27, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you expecting Eternals to end up with 10% higher ATP!!!. I looked at ticket prices between Venom/Eternals and increase is nowhere close to that. May be 3/4%. Of course a movie like Dune will have higher ATP as Imax skew was lot higher. But Eternals is big enough by the time it opens there should be no skew. 

um sorry but whats ATP ?

[Inceptionzq]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

um sorry but whats ATP ?

Average ticket price

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Average ticket price

Oh ok thanks

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

BW, not Venom. BW had matinees in the summer. 

Would that make that much of a difference overall. Previews BO is skewed towards evening shows. We will know for sure based on final data. 

 

I quickly looked at few big theaters like empire 25($2 increase), Lincoln ($2 increase from 25 to 27 !!!) and Metreon($1.50 increase) from BW. I am surprised chains decided to increase so much during these times. 

[tonytr87]

Kinda weird how basically every R-rated movie for adults is making exactly around 3-7 million OW. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/26/2021 at 3:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

425

1478

28.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

302

1741

17.35%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1655	80	16126	10.26%	15	89

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 243

 

AMCs sold	1088
Cinemarks sold	246
Regals sold	234
Harkins sold	87

 

Shang-Chi comp: 14.56M
Adjusted Black Widow comp: 11.18M

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

442

1478

29.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

313

1741

17.98%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1721	66	16403	10.49%	15	90

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 277

 

AMCs sold	1125
Cinemarks sold	262
Regals sold	244
Harkins sold	90

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.53M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 10.87M

 

Yikes

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/26/2021 at 3:58 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-9 days Thursday(51 showings): 1398(+85)/16804(+1502) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 12.18M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 7.73M

 

T-10 days Friday(84 showings): 1126(+115)/30902 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 33.93M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 17.31M

 

T-11 days Saturday(84 showings): 559(+62)/30586 in 14 theaters

 

T-12 days Sunday(69 showings): 125(+7)/23475 in 11 theaters

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday(54 showings): 1514(+116)/17627(+823) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 11.87M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 7.82M

 

T-9 days Friday(87 showings): 1215(+89)/31538(+636) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 33.14M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 16.97M

 

T-10 days Saturday(84 showings): 630(+71)/30586 in 14 theaters

 

T-11 days Sunday(69 showings): 131(+6)/23475 in 11 theaters