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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

God, these presales are cratering. Giving it an average Saturday hold by MCU standards would be something like this for the weekend:

 

9M Previews

18M Friday (2x previews)

17M Saturday (-5%)

12M Sunday (-30%)

56M Weekend

 

And that's assuming preview presales don't lose more momentum. 

 

Edit: Realizing now the saturday drop is probably too harsh. Still not seeing over 70M

 

When I 1st read your post (which I saw before the edit), I was thinking, "Oh Lord, if the forums blew up over TSS's number as a day and date in the height of Delta in August, what would that theatrical only number do during the end of Delta in November"...and then I saw you clarified it...

 

PS - next week is gonna be interesting...I will post if my Cinemarks expand showings and how much - they tend to be an early indicator on if the chain believes in the big, big numbers or not...right now, 1st Cinemark for Friday is 9 showings (only one late one) - 6 PLF, 3 regular and 2nd Cinemark is 11 showings - 1 PLF, 10 2d...so about 2.25 and 2.75 screens at open...now, I'm certain that 1st Cinemark is gonna at least expand one more screen for regular showings, but if that's it, well...

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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I am surprise by change of direction in  Eternals' PS, but I remember similar downfall happened to FG, and Candyman before the last minute comeback. Is it possible for Eternals to strike back?? or RT law set in stone?

 

An opening lower than SC is not good at all.   

 

Ehh...Shang Chi overperformed. An opening lower makes sense given that Eternals is arguably even more of an obscure property. 

 

We can't treat every Marvel movie like it's capable of opening over 100 mil just because of the Marvel brand. 

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17 hours ago, Menor said:

Getting some weird errors with shows (just a fraction of them but enough to mess with pace comps) not returning data. Will give it until tomorrow morning, hopefully it's some website error by MTC2 that resolves by then, and I can give reliable numbers. 

any update ?

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13 minutes ago, john2000 said:

any update ?

Was still having some issues. Trying again tonight. 

15 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Ehh...Shang Chi overperformed. An opening lower makes sense given that Eternals is arguably even more of an obscure property. 

 

We can't treat every Marvel movie like it's capable of opening over 100 mil just because of the Marvel brand. 

 

Nah, Eternals was tracking way higher than SC before the awful review "bump" and the middling days that have followed. If the reviews were par SC, I would be willing to bet that it would look a lot better right now. "Worst reviews in the franchise" isn't a headline any movie wants to have, especially one that was specifically marketed on quality. 

Edited by Menor
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18 minutes ago, Menor said:

Was still having some issues. Trying again tonight. 

 

Nah, Eternals was tracking way higher than SC before the awful review "bump" and the middling days that have followed. If the reviews were par SC, I would be willing to bet that it would look a lot better right now. "Worst reviews in the franchise" isn't a headline any movie wants to have, especially one that was specifically marketed on quality. 

indeed lets at least hope that it has a good final week

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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its unfortunate if you are not able to get MTC2 data. If its partial can you filter and project. 

I will give it another try before going that route. I have gotten this type of error on shows before but usually just one or two, now it's a decent portion. But I'm running Eternals now and it looks fine so far. Also doing some debugging to make sure it isn't something on my end. 

Edited by Menor
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NYC Local (5pm)

 

Antlers: 5/496

Last Night in Soho: 14/496

Eternals: 242/1753 (-1 week)

 

Eternals COMPS

SC: $17.04m
Joker:  $14.83m
Venom2: $31.9m
Dune:  $34.28

 

Ahead of BW's o/w Monday (239 seats sold)

 

(no Bond since I skipped counting Thur because it wasn't moving that week at all)

 

I don't see how Eternals is getting a 6.22 w/e multi.  This is 1) not on PPV like BW 2) It's November 3) MCU    It might be lower than usual because fewer younger kids who can't be vaccinated yet but lower than an 8 multi seems unlikely to me.

 

Thor: TDW: $7.1m/ $85.73m =  12.07x

DS  -  $9.4/ $85m  - 9x

Thor:R - $14.5m/$122.74m - 8.46x

 

We went through this low ball projection with SC where some thought it would do $50-60 off an $8m preview.

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1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local (5pm)

 

Antlers: 5/496

Last Night in Soho: 14/496

Eternals: 242/1753 (-1 week)

 

Eternals COMPS

SC: $17.04m
Joker:  $14.83m
Venom2: $31.9m
Dune:  $34.28

 

Ahead of BW's o/w Monday (239 seats sold)

 

(no Bond since I skipped counting Thur because it wasn't moving that week at all)

 

I don't see how Eternals is getting a 6.22 w/e multi.  This is 1) not on PPV like BW 2) It's November 3) MCU    It might be lower than usual because fewer younger kids who can't be vaccinated yet but lower than an 8 multi seems unlikely to me.

 

Thor: TDW: $7.1m/ $85.73m =  12.07x

DS  -  $9.4/ $85m  - 9x

Thor:R - $14.5m/$122.74m - 8.46x

 

We went through this low ball projection with SC where some thought it would do $50-60 off an $8m preview.

Projecting off one theater is very dangerous. That is all I would say. Just look back at how Venom 2 comps worked. Its definitely not higher than BW in PS at this point. 

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8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Projecting off one theater is very dangerous. That is all I would say. Just look back at how Venom 2 comps worked. Its definitely not higher than BW in PS at this point. 

 

All I do is project off one theater.  (well now.  I used to do all NYC for Blockbusters but none of these lately have been big enough for that kind of effort)  Which is why I use several comps.  The BW was just a another number, just as I don't think it's doing the $48m+ in previews Bond is pointing to. :lol:   SC over performed and Venom under performed compared to nationally.  Dune and Bond were on point.    I expect Eternals will over perform here because of the great diversity of the cast - especially with the large Asian representation.  We'll see.

 

The projection I'm referring to though is projecting w/e internal multipliers off of previews in general (not off my theater)   There's nothing in the history of the MCU that points to  a 6.22 w/e multi off a preview number under $10m - especially in a non summer month.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 442 1478 29.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 313 1741 17.98%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1721 66 16403 10.49% 15 90

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 277

 

AMCs sold 1125
Cinemarks sold 262
Regals sold 244
Harkins sold 90

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.53M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 10.87M

 

Yikes

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 467 1478 31.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 317 1741 18.21%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1784 63 16403 10.88% 15 90

 

AMCs sold 1164
Cinemarks sold 266
Regals sold 259
Harkins sold 95

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.02M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 10.45M

 

I wish it would at least stabilize here... but I don't know how it'll get the spark it needs

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday(54 showings): 1514(+116)/17627(+823) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 11.87M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 7.82M

 

T-9 days Friday(87 showings): 1215(+89)/31538(+636) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 33.14M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 16.97M

 

T-10 days Saturday(84 showings): 630(+71)/30586 in 14 theaters

 

T-11 days Sunday(69 showings): 131(+6)/23475 in 11 theaters

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday(55 showings): 1630(+116)/17836(+209) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 12.00M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 7.94M

 

T-8 days Friday(87 showings): 1293(+78)/31538 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 31.98M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 16.12M

 

T-9 days Saturday(84 showings): 700(+70)/30586 in 14 theaters

 

T-10 days Sunday(69 showings): 143(+12)/23475 in 11 theaters

 

At least Thursday increased a bit here

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Last Night in Soho:

7:00 Dolby Early Access Weds: 56/236

7:00 Dolby: 34/236 (+1)

8:15: 11/51 (+8)

9:15: 3/107 (+2)

Total: 104/630 (+11)

 

Horrendous walkups. It's finishing a bit below Candyman and a bit above Old. Take the walkups as an indicator for what will happen this weekend.

 

Antlers:

6:15: 5/40 (-3)

9:00: 9/40 (+9)

Total: 14/40 (+6)

 

This is on par with Night House, Lamb, and Pig. Maybe 3M with Halloween this weekend?

 

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 days Thursday(107 showings): 5488/15764

 

Dune comp: 8.95M

 

T-8 days Friday(154 showings): 5059/22970

 

Dune comp: 14.46M

 

T-9 days Saturday(175 showings): 5082/26432

 

Dune comp: 18.47M

 

T-10 days Sunday(153 showings): 2945/22904

 

Dune comp: 10.52M

 

As Charlie mentioned a week ago, I started tracking Drafthouse showings. Only got Dune to comp with, so it won't be perfect. Plus I did the run at night for this day.

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5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

God, these presales are cratering. Giving it an average Saturday hold by MCU standards would be something like this for the weekend:

 

9M Previews

18M Friday (2x previews)

17M Saturday (-5%)

12M Sunday (-30%)

56M Weekend

 

And that's assuming preview presales don't lose more momentum. 

 

Edit: Realizing now the saturday drop is probably too harsh. Still not seeing over 70M

This Saturday is completely wack :hahaha:

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Salt Lake City 4:00 PM previews update, Sugarhouse Cinemark, non PLF.

 

Last Night in Soho

16/124 12.9%

 

Antlers

6/218 2.8%

 

Both dead in the water with sub $500K comps. Really thought there would be more interest in a new Edgar Wright but maybe all the action is in the PLFs.

 

By contrast, Dune has already sold 75 tix for the 6:55 show. Weekday nights have been holding strong and without much competition I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a sub-55% drop this weekend.

 

Eternals update on Saturday.

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 days Thursday(107 showings): 5488/15764

 

Dune comp: 8.95M

 

T-8 days Friday(154 showings): 5059/22970

 

Dune comp: 14.46M

 

T-9 days Saturday(175 showings): 5082/26432

 

Dune comp: 18.47M

 

T-10 days Sunday(153 showings): 2945/22904

 

Dune comp: 10.52M

 

As Charlie mentioned a week ago, I started tracking Drafthouse showings. Only got Dune to comp with, so it won't be perfect. Plus I did the run at night for this day.

Is this across all locations. Awesome to see you are able to track multiple TC. You should be able to build a comp with this data in the future. Drafthouse theaters among the busiest in many markets. so blockbusters tend to be uber strong(lots of sellouts or near sellouts). 

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