The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

what normally should happen is that the pace should have already increased by now and a big part of that would be bc of the reviews, something that eternals dont have, the reviews not only arent great but the major media review headline basically "trashing" the movie along with  the fact that many outlets milk the fact that the reception isnt great and post tweets with the rt score etc.The fact that this happens definately affected it in a big way so  we should  probably (hopefully) see a bump starting this weekend or so, unlike the rest of the mcu movies that have already got a bump by now.Anyways this is my perspective feel free to correct me if i am wrong, i am no expert by any means.

Edited October 28, 2021 by john2000

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

All I do is project off one theater.  (well now.  I used to do all NYC for Blockbusters but none of these lately have been big enough for that kind of effort)  Which is why I use several comps.  The BW was just a another number, just as I don't think it's doing the $48m+ in previews Bond is pointing to.    SC over performed and Venom under performed compared to nationally.  Dune and Bond were on point.    I expect Eternals will over perform here because of the great diversity of the cast - especially with the large Asian representation.  We'll see.

 

The projection I'm referring to though is projecting w/e internal multipliers off of previews in general (not off my theater)   There's nothing in the history of the MCU that points to  a 6.22 w/e multi off a preview number under $10m - especially in a non summer month.

if you are referring to @WrathOfHan post, I think he is kidding. If not he thinks Eternals will pull in a Justice League and tank big time. Its as unlikely as Eternals having a very backloaded OW(PS is still previews skewed big time). 

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Antlers	Jacksonville	6	13	1,588	30	12	1.89%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,571	70	30	4.46%
		Raleigh	7	10	997	18	3	1.81%
	Antlers Total		20	40	4,156	118	45	2.84%
	Last Night in Soho	Jacksonville	7	14	1,835	48	0	2.62%
		Phoenix	7	14	1,489	72	20	4.84%
		Raleigh	7	10	1,063	58	14	5.46%
	Last Night in Soho Total		21	38	4,387	178	34	4.06%
T-1	My Hero Academia	Jacksonville	5	33	4,732	474	44	10.02%
		Phoenix	6	24	2,969	449	61	15.12%
		Raleigh	7	40	4,162	414	64	9.95%
	My Hero Academia Total		18	97	11,863	1,337	169	11.27%
T-7	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	49	8,384	679	39	8.10%
		Phoenix	7	42	6,832	714	73	10.45%
		Raleigh	8	34	3,886	683	39	17.58%
	Eternals Total		21	125	19,102	2,076	151	10.87%

 

Soho comps

Old - .54x (814k)

Reminiscence - 1.35x (917k)

 

Antlers comps

Malignant - .25x (510k)

Don't Breathe 2 - .69x (666k)

 

Neither of these look particularly exciting sales-wise.  Reminiscence and Malignant didn't have previews so those are comparisons to full Friday sales taken Friday morning.  Soho should easily break 1m previews if Wednesday is rolled in; Antlers I'd put around 650k.

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Late	Antlers	Jacksonville	6	13	1,588	58	28	3.65%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,571	90	20	5.73%
		Raleigh	7	11	1,047	42	24	4.01%
	Antlers Total		20	41	4,206	190	72	4.52%
Late	Last Night in Soho	Jacksonville	7	14	1,835	78	30	4.25%
		Phoenix	7	14	1,489	111	39	7.45%
		Raleigh	7	10	1,063	81	23	7.62%
	Last Night in Soho Total		21	38	4,387	270	92	6.15%

 

T-1 hour final run - sales since this morning

 

Soho comps

Old - .41x (614k)

Night House - 2.9x (755k)

 

This started bad and didn't get better today.  I'm dropping my estimate to 750k.

 

Antlers comps

Escape Room - .418x (502k)

Don't Breathe - .505x (488k)

 

Adjusting this down as well - comps look like 500k.

[john2000]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Was still having some issues. Trying again tonight. 

 

Nah, Eternals was tracking way higher than SC before the awful review "bump" and the middling days that have followed. If the reviews were par SC, I would be willing to bet that it would look a lot better right now. "Worst reviews in the franchise" isn't a headline any movie wants to have, especially one that was specifically marketed on quality. 

the funny thing is that some not all but some of these headlines dont even reflect the actual review (they still didnt like it but not like the headline said)

[Inceptionzq]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Is this across all locations. Awesome to see you are able to track multiple TC. You should be able to build a comp with this data in the future. Drafthouse theaters among the busiest in many markets. so blockbusters tend to be uber strong(lots of sellouts or near sellouts). 

Yeah it’s all locations

[WrathOfHan]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if you are referring to @WrathOfHan post, I think he is kidding. If not he thinks Eternals will pull in a Justice League and tank big time. Its as unlikely as Eternals having a very backloaded OW(PS is still previews skewed big time). 

I was ill-informed when I made that  High-60s is my expectation for now though. Not buying anything over Black Widow at this point

[DAJK]

FWIW my theater just gave up Ghostbusters to the competition in a deal that secured us Nightmare Alley. 
 

I guess they’re banking big on Guillermo.

[Eric Atreides]

19 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Antlers Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	21	86	2734	3.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

1.303x of Night House T-1 (339K)

0.661x of Malignant T-1 (1.32M)

Antlers Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	21	145	2734	5.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

1.283x of Night House (334K)

0.523x of Malignant (1.05M)

[Inceptionzq]

4 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

1.283x of Antlers (334K)

[Eric Atreides]

19 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Last Night in Soho Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	309	3327	9.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 64

 

Comp

1.175x of Old T-1 (1.76M)

1.040x of Don't Breathe 2 T-1 (1M)

Last Night in Soho Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	387	3327	11.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp

0.453x of Old (678K)

0.378x of Don't Breathe 2 (364K)

 

Woof. This really only got Wright fans in the building apparently. 😕

[Ronin46]

BoPro/BO report

 

Dune 18.4/17

MHA 8/9.1

HK 7.8/9

Soho 8.3/7.9

NTTD 8.1/7.7

Antlers 3.6/5.6

FD 3.1/4

 

Last Night in Soho seems higher than I think it will go. 

[filmlover]

Soho's sales were miserable around here and tomorrow's looking to be not much better. I guess it was just destined to do poorly no matter what if Anya becoming a star overnight during the course of its one year delay did nothing to boost ticket sales.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 10/27/2021 at 9:19 AM, Menor said:

MHA MTC2 Friday

 

Subbed Showtimes: 761 (+158)

Subbed Seats Sold: 12842/107558 (+1068)

Subbed $ Sales: 173835 (+11191)

 

Dubbed Showtimes: 1282 (+511)

Dubbed Seats Sold: 22591/171248(+2060)

Dubbed $ Sales:  317936 (+26962)

 

Combined Showtimes: 2043 (+669)

Combined Seats Sold: 35433/278806 (+3138)

Combined $ Sales: 491771 (+38153)

 

Tonight I will take Sat numbers as well. 

Finally fixed my MTC2 error. 

 

MHA MTC2

 

Friday

Showtimes: 2218 (+175)

Seats Sold: 43171/296669 (+7758)

$ Sales: 564071 (+72300)

 

Saturday

Showtimes: 2298

Seats Sold: 22811/310408 

$ Sales: 283245

 

For space, leaving out dubbed/subbed, if anyone is particularly interested I can post it later. I started an Eternals run, will post tomorrow morning so I can sleep early tonight. 

 

[Danhjpn]

Eternals: what if people wait for the audience reaction from thursday night to decide to buy ticket online or go to the cinema and buy on the following days on weekened? 

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, Menor said:

I started an Eternals run, will post tomorrow morning so I can sleep early tonight. 

tussi so rahe ho? tussi na soyo.

[Legion Again]

Spoiler

 

46 minutes ago, Menor said:

Finally fixed my MTC2 error. 

 

MHA MTC2

 

Friday

Showtimes: 2218 (+175)

Seats Sold: 43171/296669 (+7758)

$ Sales: 564071 (+72300)

 

Saturday

Showtimes: 2298

Seats Sold: 22811/310408 

$ Sales: 283245

 

For space, leaving out dubbed/subbed, if anyone is particularly interested I can post it later. I started an Eternals run, will post tomorrow morning so I can sleep early tonight. 

 

 

On 10/27/2021 at 6:37 AM, Avatar Legion said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

 

 

 

Various comps and raw data under spoiler for post length sake 😛    
 

MHA OD combined is +15% D-5 to D-3. DS previews +21%, DS OD +36%. Could conceivably have better final/D-3 despite the worse 5/3, but it’s not a great pace. Comps are now:

prev 2.2

OD 4.1 

geomean 3

combined 3  

 

Even if the straight comp drops to 2.5, should be able to do 3+ in actuality given changed MTC2 ratio. Unclear what IM will be, but I am thinking 3rd for the weekend +-1.

 

On 10/27/2021 at 6:19 AM, Menor said:

MHA MTC2 Friday

 

Subbed Showtimes: 761 (+158)

Subbed Seats Sold: 12842/107558 (+1068)

Subbed $ Sales: 173835 (+11191)

 

Dubbed Showtimes: 1282 (+511)

Dubbed Seats Sold: 22591/171248(+2060)

Dubbed $ Sales:  317936 (+26962)

 

Combined Showtimes: 2043 (+669)

Combined Seats Sold: 35433/278806 (+3138)

Combined $ Sales: 491771 (+38153)

 

Tonight I will take Sat numbers as well. 

 

On 4/21/2021 at 8:19 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Demon Slayer Thursday 4/22 (T-1)

MTC1 - 73956/406129 1070205.00 2569 shows(353 Theatres) +6975// 267 sellouts

MTC2 - 76399/368843 1054656.60 3012 shows(276 Theatres) +5907 // 216 sellouts

 

Definite sign of front loading. I am not sure what to project. GVK did slightly < 2x at MTC1 and about 2.2x at MTC2. But this will not be able to go that high. May be 250K admits at this point. That would be ~ 3.5m across tracked shows. Probably tracking towards 6-6.5m thursday BO. 

 

 

 

 

On 4/22/2021 at 9:07 PM, keysersoze123 said:

04/23 Friday BO

Mortal Kombat (T-1)

MTC1 - 96803/642319 1254005.00 3447 shows (429 Theatres) +26590 // 337 sellouts

MTC2 - 82271/471196 981053.00 3120 shows(294 Theatres) +20871 // 157 sellouts

 

Demon Slayer Friday

MTC1 -  86377/566278 1104308.00 3902 shows(410 Theatres) +14621 // 440 sellouts

MTC2 -  68511/360044 925669.71 3106 shows(276 Theatres) +11087 // 212 sellouts

 

Spectacular final day of PS for MK and solid for DS whose friday PS is ahead of thursday PS at the same point. Show counts are good for both to have strong walk ups. MK is on par with GVK in MTC1 though behind on MTC2. I think PWP sales will be on par with GVK and so with strong walk ups it could end up having OD > GVK. 

 

 

 

 

Open the spoiler if you dare.   
 

MHA OD combined is +15% D-3 to D-1. DS previews +23%, DS OD +35%. Creepily similar to what we saw D-5 to D-3. Could conceivably have better final/D-1 despite the worse 5/3 and 3/1, but pretty dubious at this point. Comps are now:

prev 2

OD 3.5

geomean 2.65

combined  2.7   
 

One reason for the weaker pace here is that MHA has been on sale since Oct 1, so a 28 day run vs just 14 for DS.    
 

Not sure mtc2 ratio will actually be that much better, DS had a lot more mtc1 shows on fri relatively speaking. Gonna forecast 2.5-3 OD? Seems worse than various regionals are showing though.    
 

Sat PS are meh. Straight DS comp gives 2.1, so probably a small drop from Fri, though don’t have pace there. Maybe 2.2-2.6 IM, 6-8 weekend? Would be rather a comedown from Heros Rising which probably would have done some 9M+ adjusted with a fri release.    
 

Much harsher competition environment here than either hero’s rising or DS had tbf.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 10/23/2021 at 10:13 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

Eternal MTC1

Previews (T-12) - 64347/366992 1126631.01 1865 shows

Friday (T-13) - 44024/724131 777094.70 3584 shows

Saturday(T-14) - 35188/765507 573656.78 3809 shows

 

 

Eternal MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 78408/395727 1355795.22 2073 shows

Friday(T-8) - 59699/731665 1033139.25 3633 shows

Saturday(T-9) - 47802/782399 768560.54 3892 shows

 

its pace has been up and down overall but its well down from BW pace(I had updated BW that morning instead of evening). But going forward I am thinking of doing comps with Shang Chi rather than BW. So extrapolating SC its previews currently ~ 13.2m. But obviously the comps will keep going down quick considering the pace. Eternals did tad over 3K over past day for previews and 3.4k for Friday. Shang chi(my number was around 3PM) will do another 5K by T-6 evening. Let us see where things stand. I will update saturday morning which I posted for SC and BW .

 

My prediction currently is around 11m previews for Eternals at this point and OW in low 80s.

 

On 8/26/2021 at 6:29 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Previews (T-7)

MTC1  - 53740/390845 902746.82 2082 shows

 

On 7/1/2021 at 9:33 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow Previews(T-7)

MTC1 - 86623/542525 2937 shows

 

On 7/1/2021 at 1:40 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow OD(T-8)

MTC1 - 65819/796509 3983 shows.

 

[Danhjpn]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Eternal MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 78408/395727 1355795.22 2073 shows

Friday(T-8) - 59699/731665 1033139.25 3633 shows

Saturday(T-9) - 47802/782399 768560.54 3892 shows

 

its pace has been up and down overall but its well down from BW pace(I had updated BW that morning instead of evening). But going forward I am thinking of doing comps with Shang Chi rather than BW. So extrapolating SC its previews currently ~ 13.2m. But obviously the comps will keep going down quick considering the pace. Eternals did tad over 3K over past day for previews and 3.4k for Friday. Shang chi(my number was around 3PM) will do another 5K by T-6 evening. Let us see where things stand. I will update saturday morning which I posted for SC and BW .

 

My prediction currently is around 11m previews for Eternals at this point and OW in low 80s.

 

 

 

 

Can it have higher than 8x thursday night if the audience reception good? 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

Can it have higher than 8x thursday night if the audience reception good? 

Sure. I wouldn’t expect much above 8 though.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Danhjpn said:

Can it have higher than 8x thursday night if the audience reception good? 

Unlikely. This will have big sunday drop and Marvel is an established franchise. But if you want optimistic outlook don't ask me :-) @Avatar Legion or @charlie Jatinder can provider better response for sure :-)

 

Big question is what is the next catalyst for big bump. I dont think reviews will have any effect anymore plus marketing is already at high gear. So major action will be seen only final few days. Let us see how sunday is. That is when Venom 2 went CRAY. But it was trending up every day that day and pace was accelerating at a really fast clip. Here it has been flat this week from monday onwards. 

 

Also @charlie Jatinder. Not sure what to extrapolate to. This will be PS heavy. 

 

MHA MTC1(T-1)

Friday - 36718/240259 286134.69 1541 shows. 

 

Edit: $ value ignore

 

 

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by keysersoze123