The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

Soho’s doing better than Bad Times at the El Royale here for what it’s worth. Based on business in my area, 10M wouldn’t surprise me. But I live in a university town that’s also full of old people too so, probably overindexing here a bit.

[Danhjpn]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Unlikely. This will have big sunday drop and Marvel is an established franchise. But if you want optimistic outlook don't ask me 🙂 @Avatar Legion or @charlie Jatinder can provider better response for sure 🙂

 

Big question is what is the next catalyst for big bump. I dont think reviews will have any effect anymore plus marketing is already at high gear. So major action will be seen only final few days. Let us see how sunday is. That is when Venom 2 went CRAY. But it was trending up every day that day and pace was accelerating at a really fast clip. Here it has been flat this week from monday onwards. 

 

Also @charlie Jatinder. Not sure what to extrapolate to. This will be PS heavy. 

 

MHA MTC1(T-1)

Friday - 36718/240259 286134.69 1541 shows. 

 

 

I simply think the not good reviews is preventing a certain amount of people from booking ticket online and those people may come out on the weekend if the audience reception is good. 

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Wednesday Before Release

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	58	1026	10047	10.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 127

 

Comp

0.583x of Dune Wednesday Before Release (2.97M)

My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	61	1226	10247	11.96%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 200

Total Seats Sold Today: 200

 

Comp

0.525x of Dune (2.67M)

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MHA MTC1(T-1)

Friday - 36718/240259 286134.69 1541 shows.

The ATP seems like may have some error. MTC 2 had 13.5+ ATP and in Harkins they are doing $12.5 flat rate for every show. 

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	2081	12199	17.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 93

 

Comp

0.829x of Black Widow T-8 (10.94M)

1.477x of Shang-Chi T-8 (13M)

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	2183	12199	17.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 102

 

Comp

0.826x of Black Widow T-7 (10.9M)

1.417x of Shang-Chi T-7 (12.47M)

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The ATP seems like may have some error. MTC 2 had 13.5+ ATP and in Harkins they are doing $12.5 flat rate for every show. 

Weird. You are right. Ignore $ value. 14062 tickets(472 shows) sold have no ticket price. I looked at Eternals and I am getting data for all of them. So something specific about this movie output. I have to debug. For now go with at least $15 ATP or even higher. 

 

Edit: I think I figured it out. Ticket price is coming as 15 instead of 15.00 and my regex failed. Let me see I can get updated number. This is specific to MHA. 

 

MHA OD MTC1 rerun

37108/240356 923869.26 1541 shows

 

I confirmed I am not getting any zero values. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

Awful last 3 days for Eternals relative to the other 2 MCU films reviews drop. Things can improve, but if they don't we may be missing $9M previews & $70M OW here.

 

Eternals T-7 Days Nationwide

 

THU - $3.35M

FRI - $2.7M

SAT - $2M

SUN & Rest - $1.4M

 

Total - $9.5M

 

Comps

THU is

86% of Black Widow - $11.35M

140% of Shang Chi - $12.6M

 

FRI is

93% of Black Widow - $24.4M

150% of Shang Chi - $30.5M

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Just as a one time dessert. I was able to run MTC2 previews in super slow mode with 5 secs break between each check. Took over 4 hours. @Menor can do way better for sure. 

 

Eternals MTC2 Previews(T-7) -40511/325995 561298.99 1988 shows // This ran between 2-6PM PST.  

[Ezen Baklattan]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Soho's sales were miserable around here and tomorrow's looking to be not much better. I guess it was just destined to do poorly no matter what if Anya becoming a star overnight during the course of its one year delay did nothing to boost ticket sales.

It's very much a movie that needed strong reviews and buzz to break out of its niche, (which it doesn't have) and opening right between Dune/Dispatch and Eternals isn't going to do it any favors.

[Porthos]

On 10/27/2021 at 11:11 PM, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	100	13230	15816	2586	16.35%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	130
Total Seats Sold Today	101

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	157.59		149	1641		0/108	15846/17487	9.38%		13.87m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Eternals' tickets have been on sale for seven more days than Shang-Chi' tickets have been on sale.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	71.32		204	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		9.86m
Eternals (adj)	---		99	2477		0/95	12763/15240	16.25%		---

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Eternals (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 562/4845 [11.60% sold] [+30 tickets]

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	13315	15968	2653	16.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	152
Total Seats Sold Today	67

 

T-7 Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	149.55		133	1774		0/111	15837/17611	10.07%		13.16m
BW	69.56		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		9.61m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Eternals' tickets have been on sale for seven more days than Shang-Chi' tickets have been on sale while Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals tickets have been on sale.

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 571/4997 [11.43% sold] [+11 tickets]

Edited October 30, 2021 by Porthos

[riveredge]

31 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

It's very much a movie that needed strong reviews and buzz to break out of its niche, (which it doesn't have) and opening right between Dune/Dispatch and Eternals isn't going to do it any favors.

I reaaly doubt even with strong reviews. The Last Duel had high 80's in RT from critics with starpower in Damon, Affleck, Driver and the breakout actress and Emmy winner in Jodie, directed by Ridley Scott and yet the movie only managed to open under 4m.

 

If the movie is not Marvel/remake/sequel, the BO result speaks for itself. That's the reality.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/26/2021 at 12:02 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Eternals Harkins T-10 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	189	48,739	1,084	2.22%	$12,731	$11.74
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,274	26.44%	$19,643	$15.42
Cine Capri	4	1,782	87	4.88%	$1,239	$14.24
IMAX	2	890	226	25.39%	$3,390	$15.00
3D	12	1,988	18	0.91%	$227	$12.61
Total	223	58,217	2,689	4.62%	$37,230	$13.85

 

Comps

1.93x Shang Chi T-10 Days - $16.99M

0.91x Black Widow T-10 Days - $12.4M (adjusted for Canada)

 

Last 7 days pace is +15% of Black Widow, so that's encouraging, but matching next 3 days pace seems hard. Will do another check on T-3 day. Should go over 5300 by then.

Eternals Harkins T-7 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	214	54,016	1,413	2.62%	$16,543	$11.71
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,451	30.12%	$22,363	$15.41
Cine Capri	4	1,782	99	5.56%	$1,413	$14.27
IMAX	2	890	239	26.85%	$3,585	$15.00
3D	12	1,704	19	1.12%	$242	$12.74
Total	248	63,210	3,221	5.10%	$44,146	$13.71

 

Comps

1.57x Shang Chi T-7 Days - $13.82M

0.85x Black Widow T-7 Days - $11.6M (adjusted for Canada)

 

Just awful. Added 532 seats in last 3 days, compared to 893 of Black Widow & 696 of Shang Chi. The major locations pace was good like Cerritos 16, Estrella Falls but the smaller markets barely added anything, so much so its disaster there. When I started the run, felt encouraging, end was just blech.

 

Need bumps in final days.

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

It's very much a movie that needed strong reviews and buzz to break out of its niche, (which it doesn't have) and opening right between Dune/Dispatch and Eternals isn't going to do it any favors.

True, it's actually Wright's lowest-rated movie on RT. Having a premise that just seemed too convoluted to convey in 30-second TV spots also assured it would struggle to find much appeal beyond its limited demographic. 

[CJohn]

Remember when Eternals was gonna open with 100M? Those were the days

[riveredge]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

True, it's actually Wright's lowest-rated movie on RT. Having a premise that just seemed too convoluted to convey in 30-second TV spots also assured it would struggle to find much appeal beyond its limited demographic. 

Outside of Baby driver, none of Edgar's movies had good run in the BO even though they were higher rated in RT. So, I don't know why some are overanalyzing this. Lol. 

[filmlover]

Eternals is looking to be the closest the MCU has had to a "for die-hard fans only, everyone else need not apply" entry so far since becoming a full-blown brand name. Which will make legs more interesting than the opening since their audience that will show up no matter what at this point is too huge for bomb status.

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Just as a one time dessert. I was able to run MTC2 previews in super slow mode with 5 secs break between each check. Took over 4 hours. @Menor can do way better for sure. 

 

Eternals MTC2 Previews(T-7) -40511/325995 561298.99 1988 shows // This ran between 2-6PM PST.  

I think I am not getting all of the shows. I get only 1968 shows and 39442 for previews. Maybe I need to double check something in my show counter. 

[keysersoze123]

I thought I was pessimistic when I predicted Eternals but Charlie took it to another level. But the key thing is there is no catalyst at the moment. Current pace will put it well behind BW and SC will start to catch up. 

 

This is behaving closer to Dune/Bond than a Marvel movie at this point. We need @john2000 sacrificed to make a difference. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I thought I was pessimistic when I predicted Eternals but Charlie took it to another level. But the key thing is there is no catalyst at the moment. Current pace will put it well behind BW and SC will start to catch up. 

 

This is behaving closer to Dune/Bond than a Marvel movie at this point. We need @john2000 sacrificed to make a difference. 

It's pace did not increase at all from last week. That trend is beyond disastrous so I can definitely see it plunging in the final week (relative to others). But more likely in line with your prediction. 

[exomassey]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's pace did not increase at all from last week. That trend is beyond disastrous so I can definitely see it plunging in the final week (relative to others). But more likely in line with your prediction. 

The reviews just completely stopped this movie in its tracks lol.