The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XO21]

the mindblowing fact is no matter how frontloaded it is (see Force Awakens) it has the holidays corridor.

Edited November 30, 2021 by XO21

[Porthos]

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	225	14920	28199	13279	47.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 26 Hours*

13279

* Tickets went on sale at 9pm local time yesterday and promptly crashed all ticket sellers.  As of 2:50am last night, NWH had sold 6515 tickets.

 

No point to doing comps right now, so instead % of final tickets sold:

 

As of T-17, No Way Home has sold...

1.4440x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [19.06m]

2.2711x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [19.99m]

1.7219x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [19.97m]

2.0719x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [19.68m]

---

Regal:       3682/7071 [52.07% sold] 

Matinee:   1215/3855 [31.52% | 9.15% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	225	14920	28199	13279	47.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 26 Hours*

13279

* Tickets went on sale at 9pm local time yesterday and promptly crashed all ticket sellers.  As of 2:50am last night, NWH had sold 6515 tickets.

 

No point to doing comps right now, so instead % of final tickets sold:

 

As of T-17, No Way Home has sold...

1.4440x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [19.06m]

2.2711x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [19.99m]

1.7219x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [19.97m]

2.0719x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [19.68m]

---

Regal:       3682/7071 [52.07% sold] 

Matinee:   1215/3855 [31.52% | 9.15% of all tickets sold]

 

I do have some Day 1 comps against TROS and Endgame, but, and I hate being a broken record about this, my current tracking is different enough now than then that I don't think they're all that useful.  Also, TROS' "first day" was 5+ hours of sales vs NWH's 25+.  Not that it matters all that much, as NWH still smokes TROS when it's first full day is added to the totals as I'll note below.  Still, 57+ days versus 17+.  

 

When we get to Endgame, one theater hadn't yet been opened, and another theater I only had partial results for at the time.  Which would be fine, except that was the theater which was recently closed down and replaced by a brand new one about a mile away.  Currently I am just doing a XD screens for XD screens comp when trying to adjust for that, but I ain't very happy with the compromise.  If it were up to me, I'd flat out ignore every last track I ever made before 2021.   But since I know peeps will ask...

 

EXTREME GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO MYRAID IRRITANTS COMPS:

1.5220x TROS Day 1 sales                                       [60.88m]

1.3543x TROS after approx 29 hours of TROS sales [54.17m]

0.9796x TROS at T-17                                            [39.19m]

0.8047x Endgame Day 1 sales                                 [48.28m]

0.6824x Endgame at T-17                                      [40.94m]

 

IMO the only real thing to be taken away here is:  No Way Home sold a metric ass-ton of tickets today.  That and a preview number starting with a "4" is fairly possible We'll see what happens in the following days.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Porthos
Forgot to account for Sacto running hot compared to the rest of the US when it comes to pre-2021 comps - changed "pretty darn likely" to "fairly possible"

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

[60.88m]

Stop. The. Count.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Stop. The. Count.

 

Yeeessss, I thought that might earn your attention.

[charlie Jatinder]

Spider-man: No Way Home Harkins T-17 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	273	73,383	22,084	30.09%	$237,119	$10.74
Cine 1	24	7,227	5,274	72.98%	$76,114	$14.43
Cine Capri	6	2,673	833	31.16%	$11,031	$13.24
IMAX	3	1,335	1,042	78.05%	$15,630	$15.00
3D	17	2,590	447	17.26%	$6,209	$13.89
Total	323	87,208	29,680	34.03%	$346,103	$11.66

 

Comps

1.42x Black Widow Final - $19.4M (adjusted for Canada)

2.17x Shang Chi Final - $19.1M

1.74x Eternals Final - $16.6M

 

30% of Avengers: Endgame Final - $18M

 

Well, as with everyone, this sold ton of tickets. These took roughly 1 hour to track so quite possible we hit 30k while counting. Let's see how things go. 

[charlie Jatinder]

And here's how graphs looks in Harkins.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Since @charlie Jatinder mentioned its < 24 hours, here is data at EOD

Spiderman No Way Home MTC2

Previews - 259824/681532 3378618.04 4618 shows // 25 hours of data

Friday - 185092/802030 2260664.67 5005 shows

Saturday - 110805/820953 1327688.63 5149 shows

 

Update more than 5 hours ago was already 85% of overall update. At this point most prime time PLF shows are close to sellouts and good 2D shows have filled up as well. So progress will taper off but still this is OUT OF THE WORLD start. 

Thanks a lot Keyser as always. I hope you are able to get MTC 1 data because I think we may need that for calling out whether we are over or under Endgame. MTC 2 is very close to Endgame I think, may be higher, may be lower.

 

Other issue is to know how many theaters are missing from this.

[Cap]

So just for shits and giggles, I went combing through my old data.  I don't have a complete picture cause I tossed a bunch of it, but I do have first day numbers for Endgame and TROS.  I should note that I would take this with an EXTREME grain of salt, cause one of the theaters is forever closed to the pandemic, so only the two opened back up.

 

Apple/Cinemagic

Spider-Man: No Way From Home: 

508 tickets sold

 

Avengers: Endgame

1138 tickets sold | Comps out to 44.63M Thursday Previews

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker:

830 tickets sold | Comps out to 24.48M Thursday Previews

 

So, uh, I think this is gonna be a hit. 🤷‍♀️

 

I did a quick eyeballs at the local theaters that I track.  Everything is basically 70-90% full.  I'm not going to comp it out, because all the recent comps would be garbage.  

 

For me, the big question is how much pent up demand has the first 24 hours burned off.  It's been wild folks.  It's nice to see something this crazy again.  Yet, let's not forget: It’s the first thing that fandom has really had any reason to be super excited about in a very long time. Twitter has been pushing and pushing this date forever. Then the sites crashed, and then it became a meme/thing of like "get your tickets now because the site's crashing. They’re going to be gone!!"
 

We don’t know what’s gonna happen with the staffing shortage. Because the reality is that, sure, Empire 25 probably could run all night like they did AEG weekend. But a bunch of the local theaters in the rural areas or independent chains probably will not do that. They’ll probably think: this is great! I’m sold out already! They can buy for Friday or Saturday. Because why would I pay for overtime staff, when I could just have people come to my theater the next day?  Especially at Christmas when it's very typical for things to be spread out over the week.

 

Should make for a very interesting couple weeks.

 

*

 

I also don't know -- it was several pages back -- who had numbers for Lincoln Square, but these are the top 5 first day sellers from that theater when I was tracking it:

 

Movie	Sold
Endgame	4665
Star Wars TROS	4235
Joker	1082
Lion King	1002
Dark Phoenix	479

 

I thought I had Empire 25, but I must've deleted it in my COVID depression rage.  

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

So at this juncture, what would be (in your estimation) the absolute floor for NWH OW? Like, if it gets Eternals or worse critics reaction and a C Cinemascore.

 

Looking at all the numbers, I’m having difficulty seeing it below AOU OW even if the film is shit.

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

So at this juncture, what would be (in your estimation) the absolute floor for NWH OW? Like, if it gets Eternals or worse critics reaction and a C Cinemascore.

 

Looking at all the numbers, I’m having difficulty seeing it below AOU OW even if the film is shit.

When reviews leak that there’s no T&A, everyone will cancel tickets+ sue for emotional damage, several billion dollar loss to become by far the least profitable movie in human history  

 

Spoiler

35 50 45 30 160 with truly toxic WOM

 

[Cap]

7 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

When reviews leak that there’s no T&A, everyone will cancel tickets+ sue for emotional damage, several billion dollar loss to become by far the least profitable movie in human history  

I love how we’re joking, but this is totally accurate. 🤪

[Legion Again]

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/amc-theatres-ceo-we-broke-the-internet-selling-spider-man-no-way-home-movie-nfts/   
 

Quote

“The traffic we had to our web site and mobile app last night were the highest that AMC has ever seen.”

When asked if No Way Home would be the chain’s highest-grossing release, Aron said the title is currently locked in a battle with the 2018 Marvel Studios’ release Avengers: Endgame, a title that grossed nearly $2.8 billion in ticket sales, including $858 million domestically.

“It’s really close,” he said. “The point is, [No Way Home] is a really big movie. It’s going to be a really big movie. And we sold a tremendous number of tickets.”

 

[Legion Again]

I swear to god if the comps are thrown off by fucking NFTs I will… [redacted to avoid warning] Adam Aron

Edited November 30, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[ZackM]

I will remain cautious of any "24 hour record" type announcements.  Brings back painful memories of Solo: A Star Wars Story.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, ZackM said:

I will remain cautious of any "24 hour record" type announcements.  Brings back painful memories of Solo: A Star Wars Story.

thats one example on the other hand you also have endgame,force awakens,rise of skywalker, infinity war and last jedi all of which hit  40 mill or so in terms of previews.....

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I will remain cautious of any "24 hour record" type announcements.  Brings back painful memories of Solo: A Star Wars Story.

Solo sales were bad for Star Wars.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-17	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	72	12,424	2,330	2,330	18.75%
		Phoenix	6	55	10,267	3,190	3,190	31.07%
		Raleigh	7	46	6,502	2,290	2,290	35.22%
	Spider-Man Total		20	173	29,193	7,810	7,810	26.75%

 

This movie has been on sale for nine hours and has passed final sales (1 hour before previews start) of all other movies I've tracked.  I'm kinda speechless at the moment.  Here's how sales are looking, even with the matinee prices for early shows:

 

Spider-Man - $108,670 (13.91 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Format breakdown - so far it's at 54% standard/46% PLF

 

 

Showtime sample is already returning 9,578 US shows with 1,181 of those being PLF.  Eternals was at 9,541 two weeks out, but it had 2,473 theaters with shows up, whereas Spider-Man only has 1,315 listed so far.  

 

Showtime breakdown

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	1166	12.17%
3:01-3:59	749	7.82%
4:00-4:59	1226	12.80%
5:00-5:59	714	7.45%
6:00-6:59	1301	13.58%
7:00-7:59	1616	16.87%
8:00-8:59	938	9.79%
9:00-9:59	599	6.25%
10:00-10:59	998	10.42%
11:00+	271	2.83%

 

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-16	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	89	15,195	4,117	1,787	27.09%
		Phoenix	6	84	12,833	5,941	2,751	46.29%
		Raleigh	8	68	8,285	4,049	1,759	48.87%
	Spider-Man Total		21	241	36,313	14,107	6,297	38.85%

 

No signs of slowing yet.  This is close to 24 hours since my last update with about an 81% increase in sales and about 40% increase in show count.  I expect it to pass BW+Eternals+SC final sales easily by tomorrow (16,833).    The 39% sold will drop as more shows are added, but it's very impressive with this show count.

 

Spider-Man - $190,754 (13.52 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

ATP dropped a little with standard and matinee shows catching up to PLFs.  Standard shows account for 59% of sales now in these areas.

 

 

Showtime sample is up to 15,758 (1,504 PLF) with 2,126 theaters reporting.  Obviously there are a lot of theaters left to report, but it's already more saturated than Venom, which ended at 7.04 shows per theater compared to Spiderman's 7.41.

 

Venom T-3 weeks - 12,285 (1,978 TC)

Venom T-2 weeks - 13,768 (2,381 TC)

Venom T-1 week - 15,596 (2,716 TC)

Venom final - 21,288 (3,024 TC)

 

Shows by start time

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	1849	11.73%
3:01-3:59	1228	7.79%
4:00-4:59	1966	12.48%
5:00-5:59	1150	7.30%
6:00-6:59	2181	13.84%
7:00-7:59	2609	16.56%
8:00-8:59	1539	9.77%
9:00-9:59	1133	7.19%
10:00-10:59	1626	10.32%
11:00+	477	3.03%

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Menor said:

How many theaters are you able to get shows from? 

I look at 319 theaters where I get shows with reserved seatings. I was earlier looking at all 360 I could pull but some of them have closed during pandemic. 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks a lot Keyser as always. I hope you are able to get MTC 1 data because I think we may need that for calling out whether we are over or under Endgame. MTC 2 is very close to Endgame I think, may be higher, may be lower.

 

Other issue is to know how many theaters are missing from this.

MTC1 one is still queuing. 250m+ OW confirmed.