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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 minute ago, john2000 said:

2,7 with a 259 ow would get you to 700 million dom or 699,3 to be precise, was wrong with the 720.

That's right. Anyway, I am changing the multiplier for the lower opening to 2.8, so the final range would be 607-699. Basically, million up, million down, the same range.

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Ok I’m doing some back of the hand calculations for previews. Follow me here….

 

Keyser TROS final previews at MTC2 was ~324k tickets sold and 4199 show times. Menor has informed us that Keyser’s tracking missed about 10% of showtimes and coverage has since expanded. So let’s say the actual number was +50K tickets and +700 shows. That gives us something like 375k tickets and 4900 shows @ $12.25 ATP roughly. NWH ATP is about 5.5% higher by comparison.
 

NWH T-15 numbers for MTC2 are sitting at ~327k tickets sold and 5408 show times. The last 24HR increase was 33k tickets (basically flat from the previous 24HR before that, T-16). Looking back on the numbers, Keyser had TROS increasing +3427 T-15 after +3516 T-16. Let’s add 500 to that to account for adjustments. 
 

So give or take a bit, NWH T-15 increase was 8.25x bigger than TROS. Of course we have to factor in the length of time TROS presales have already been running vs NWH, and take that into account but as of right now it’s hard to get an idea of how that equates. We will need another week of NWH numbers. 
 

TROS T-14 in Keyser’s data did +2968. A similar % for NWH would give us ~28k tickets sold T-14. I feel like it won’t be that high. Probably closer to ~22k. 
 

It’s hard to extrapolate the best rate of decrease for NWH. Obviously it will fall behind TROS (percentage wise) as it can’t sustain an 8.25x rate for 14 more days (that would end up being 1 million tickets sold). I do however think it can add an additional 200-250k tickets sold in the next 14 days. Even assuming a 10% rise in online booking vs TROS and MTC2 overindexing, as of right now I think previews are on track for $53-58M. 
 

Alright nerds, tear my numbers apart 😂

Edited by VenomXXR
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Endgame had pretty nutty first3 days iirc. Day4 might fall off a cliff relatively speaking, like+14k mtc2 previews or something. If it actually hits 22k then we are going comfortably past 50M in my view as well.    

 

 

There is a line of thought that if endgame basically did max capacity Th anyway -- the real Th demand could have been like 90M+ worth. Then if NWH has 25% lower Th demand on admits it could actually... Beat Endgame previews... by also effectivity maxing out Th (with less unmet demand because hype is less) but with 3 extra hours and a smidge of inflation.

 

Edited by Eternal Legion
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On 12/20/2019 at 11:37 AM, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Prev FINAL - overall 6792 shows 526597/1015531 7638050.75  +70096
MTC2 Prev  FINAL - overall 4439 shows 351871/571761 4271595.00 +54032

@VenomXXR Keyser final number for TRoS were these. Though I can just tell you what TRoS actually did :P

MTC 1 - $10.95M
MTC 2 - $5.18M

 

So round about 430K final admits in MTC 2 for TRoS.

 

One issue is that Post CoVID, I believe since MTC3 was close during most of CoVID time, they lost some of their audience to other chains. MTC 2 now is sometime even beating MTC 3 while in before times, MTC3 used to be well ahead, so TRoS MTC 2 won't hold.

 

However MTC 3 has 200 more locs, so when the capacity is challenged by NWH on THU, those 200 locs may come in handy, taking MTC 3 again higher than MTC 2.

 

For Endgame, MTC 3 reached very close to MTC 1 because everything was getting full.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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10 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Endgame had pretty nutty first3 days iirc. Day4 might fall off a cliff relatively speaking, like+14k mtc2 previews or something. If it actually hits 22k then we are going comfortably past 50M in my view as well.    

 

 

There is a line of thought that if endgame basically did max capacity Th anyway -- the real Th demand could have been like 90M+ worth. Then if NWH has 25% lower Th demand on admits it could actually... Beat Endgame previews... by also effectivity maxing out Th (with less unmet demand because hype is less) but with 3 extra hours and a smidge of inflation.

 

Indeed. 3 hours of extra previews, 30 minute less runtime, higher ATP (probably close to 7% more than EG.) Also something to remember is EG started with a much higher show count (at least at my theater, T-15 EG was 46 vs NWH current 31) so there should be more pent up demand to fulfill as show counts expand. I think NWH show count could get to 6500+ (MTC2).

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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh and it crossed $50M in pre-sales. In 3 days. ~$52M.

 

Previews I don't see go below $45M at this point. Somehow I am feeling a bit dodgy on how its THU/FRI ratio be. On one hand it is deflated by matinee, on other hand it has huge no. of shows. 

 

I guess

45-50

60-70

62-75

50-64 = 217-259

 

for now. Let's see, how things change

Go higher

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1 hour ago, peludo said:

If NWH opens to $200m I do not see how it can miss $550m, even if the film sucks like the other 2 Spideys MCU's films.

 

?? those films get high critic and audience scores and did  880m and 1.1b+ respectively so... 

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7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@VenomXXR Keyser final number for TRoS were these. Though I can just tell you what TRoS actually did :P

MTC 1 - $10.95M
MTC 2 - $5.18M

 

So round about 430K final admits in MTC 2 for TRoS.

 

One issue is that Post CoVID, I believe since MTC3 was close during most of CoVID time, they lost some of their audience to other chains. MTC 2 now is sometime even beating MTC 3 while in before times, MTC3 used to be well ahead, so TRoS MTC 2 won't hold.

 

However MTC 3 has 200 more locs, so when the capacity is challenged by NWH on THU, those 200 locs may come in handy, taking MTC 3 again higher than MTC 2.

 

For Endgame, MTC 3 reached very close to MTC 1 because everything was getting full.


Ahh I was using his final previews number from before previews actually started (I believe 530PM Thursday). The math itself should play out the same (for that metric.)

 

Your other data is of course something I have to consider but there’s also a lot of variables to combat against it, that we just can’t extrapolate right now.

 

I could be off base and this “only” does $45M, but I want to live in a $55M+ world, Charlie!

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21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
  Black Widow Total   21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 6 72 10,311 1,811 526 17.56%
    Phoenix 7 59 8,999 1,848 320 20.54%
    Raleigh 8 37 4,098 1,713 380 41.80%
  Eternals Total   21 168 23,408 5,372 1,226 22.95%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
    Phoenix 7 51 7,193 1,349 262 18.75%
    Raleigh 8 40 4,505 1,327 332 29.46%
  Shang-Chi Total   21 151 20,317 4,099 1,087 20.18%
T-15 Spider-Man Jacksonville 7 133 19,267 4,652 535 24.14%
    Phoenix 6 116 18,073 6,511 570 36.03%
    Raleigh 8 69 8,386 4,418 369 52.68%
  Spider-Man Total   21 318 45,726 15,581 1,474 34.07%

 

I probably won't update all of the charts and other things every day, but for now....

 

Massive 77 new shows added since yesterday morning, mainly in Jacksonville and Phoenix (only one in Raleigh).  Capacity issues should be pretty small at the moment until these start filling up.  Despite 15.5k sales and counting, there still isn't a sellout in the theaters I track.  Didn't quite reach the BW+Eter+SC sales yet, but soon hopefully.  I'm not going to throw out any comps yet because I don't really see the point.  In a couple of days I'll start looking at daily trends.

 

Spider-Man - $210,316 (13.50 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

ATP dropped a little more, now below Eternals.  As others have noted, the addition of matinee shows is driving this down.  I did want to mention something that I noticed today - the PLF shows in a few theaters have dropped the prices a little since yesterday, some up to $1.  I noticed it in a couple of AMCs that were pretty full already.  For my tracking, I left them at the original price as that was where most of the tickets were bought, but it would make a pretty big difference on a larger scale.   Here are a couple of new charts for breakdown of matinees and format

 

 

Movie Mat Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man N 13,603 87.31% $188,481.62 13.86
  Y 1,978 12.69% $21,740.90 10.99
Grand Total   15,581 100.00% $210,222.52 13.49

 

 

Movie Format Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man PLF 6,234 40.01% $100,766.88 16.16
  Standard 9,347 59.99% $109,455.64 11.71
Grand Total   15,581 100.00% $210,222.52 13.49

 

FyW8uSb.png

 

Showtime sample is up to 21,779 (4,329 PLF) with 2,615 theaters reporting.  I'm not sure where yesterday's PLF number came from, but it was definitely wrong.  With 15 days to go, it already has more preview shows than any other movie I've tracked.  The most preview theaters I've seen since tracking has been BW with 3,109, so we still have a little ways to go.  It's now up to 8.3 shows per theater, well ahead of Venom 2's 7.04 already.

 

Venom T-3 weeks - 12,285 (1,978 TC)

Venom T-2 weeks - 13,768 (2,381 TC)

Venom T-1 week - 15,596 (2,716 TC)

Venom final - 21,288 (3,024 TC)

 

Shows by start time

 

Time Shows %
3:00 2,119 9.73%
3:01-3:59 1,794 8.24%
4:00-4:59 2,738 12.57%
5:00-5:59 1,700 7.81%
6:00-6:59 2,876 13.21%
7:00-7:59 3,663 16.82%
8:00-8:59 2,170 9.96%
9:00-9:59 1,719 7.89%
10:00-10:59 2,168 9.95%
11:00+ 832 3.82%

 

I'm starting to see some shows pop up after midnight, even as late as 1:30am!

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
  Black Widow Total   21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 6 72 10,311 1,811 526 17.56%
    Phoenix 7 59 8,999 1,848 320 20.54%
    Raleigh 8 37 4,098 1,713 380 41.80%
  Eternals Total   21 168 23,408 5,372 1,226 22.95%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
    Phoenix 7 51 7,193 1,349 262 18.75%
    Raleigh 8 40 4,505 1,327 332 29.46%
  Shang-Chi Total   21 151 20,317 4,099 1,087 20.18%
T-14 Spider-Man Jacksonville 7 154 22,299 4,982 330 22.34%
    Phoenix 6 119 18,229 6,866 355 37.67%
    Raleigh 8 73 8,648 4,620 202 53.42%
  Spider-Man Total   21 346 49,176 16,468 887 33.49%

 

28 new shows added since yesterday's run, though not in the theaters that needed them.  Only a 5.7% increase in sales, though that was still almost as many tickets as Shang-Chi sold between preview morning and final run.  I look at some T-14 comps for fun just to see how crazy these sales numbers are:

 

BW - 8.69x (114.7m)

Eternals - 11.97x (113.7m)

SC - 25.9x (227.8m)

 

Okay, we'll try again later.  Sales comparisons...

 

Spider-Man - $221,910 (13.48 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

Movie Mat Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man N 14,399 87.44% $199,164.01 13.83
  Y 2,069 12.56% $22,746.02 10.99
Grand Total   16,468 100.00% $221,910.03 13.48

 

Movie Format Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man PLF 6,493 39.43% $105,073.64 16.18
  Standard 9,975 60.57% $116,836.39 11.71
Grand Total   16,468 100.00% $221,910.03 13.48

 

Showtimes report shows 2,660 new shows added which brings us to 24,439 (4,587 PLF).  There are also 57 additional theaters reporting today, with the new average at 9.146 shows per theater for previews.  We've now passed BW's final show counts in my sample report.

 

BW final - 23,129 (3,109 TC)

Venom final - 21,288 (3,024 TC)

 

Time Shows %
3:00 2,108 8.63%
3:01-3:59 2,018 8.26%
4:00-4:59 3,123 12.78%
5:00-5:59 1,999 8.18%
6:00-6:59 3,164 12.95%
7:00-7:59 4,010 16.41%
8:00-8:59 2,502 10.24%
9:00-9:59 2,024 8.28%
10:00-10:59 2,415 9.88%
11:00+ 1,075 4.40%
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17 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

 I just realize that this would beat the pandemic opening weekend record before even opening 

༼ つ ◕‿◕ ༽つ(⊃。•́‿•̀。)⊃(づ◡﹏◡)づ

I think NTTD did that in UK. Can also be top grosser of year by end of weekend.

 

Now if we had China day and date, might have taken NTTD WW out by end of weekend as well.

 

 

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I would not compare with my data for SW9 for NWH. That seemed way too low looking at preview gross. I would look at recent tracked movies and extrapolate. 

 

Shang Chi when I stopped tracking was at 121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows. So it needs 5x gross to hit ~ 44m. average ticket price goes for a toss as PLF screens are limited. So Spidey needs around 650K at MTC2 to hit 5x Shang Chi. 

 

Venom 2 - 198739/715979 2541472.68. 4x this gross would mean 46.4m. That would be around 825K tickets. 

 

Venom 2 over indexed at MTC2 while Shang Chi probably did worse. I would say somewhere in between for Spidey as its doing Cray at MTC2. So I would say target is 750K tickets. 

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would not compare with my data for SW9 for NWH. That seemed way too low looking at preview gross. I would look at recent tracked movies and extrapolate. 

 

Shang Chi when I stopped tracking was at 121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows. So it needs 5x gross to hit ~ 44m. average ticket price goes for a toss as PLF screens are limited. So Spidey needs around 650K at MTC2 to hit 5x Shang Chi. 

 

Venom 2 - 198739/715979 2541472.68. 4x this gross would mean 46.4m. That would be around 825K tickets. 

 

Venom 2 over indexed at MTC2 while Shang Chi probably did worse. I would say somewhere in between for Spidey as its doing Cray at MTC2. So I would say target is 750K tickets. 

Not even Endgame did 750K. As I mentioned above, chains ratio has been a bit off recently with MTC 3 taking a big hit, the business going to MTC 2 . BW did almost 90% of CM in MTC 2 while MTC 1 was around 65%.

 

But with NWH testing the capacity the ratio shall go bit normal.

 

I think 600K admits in MTC 2 might do $45M.

 

 

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Just now, Maggie said:

Is anyone tracking WSS?

I think not. May be @keysersoze123 may check but its gonna to be too small to bother tbh.

 

For others, there are WAY too many shows for NWH which takes a lot of time and mind work. Not sensible to expect any other film's tracking barring may be Matrix. 

 

Its insane @Eric Madrigal is putting so much work tracking Sing 2 along with NWH at this point.

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Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Not even Endgame did 750K. As I mentioned above, chains ratio has been a bit off recently with MTC 3 taking a big hit, the business going to MTC 2 . BW did almost 90% of CM in MTC 2 while MTC 1 was around 65%.

 

But with NWH testing the capacity the ratio shall go bit normal.

 

I think 600K admits in MTC 2 might do $45M.

 

 

Ok. May be you are right. But there have been multiple theater closures(Entire Pacific/Arclight, Many theaters in MTC's as well) since COVID hit. So MTC ratios are higher compared to pre pandemic. When we upped tracking for MTC2, combined MTC ratio was around 48%(for smaller movies it went above 50%). For NWH if it explodes everywhere it could go down to 45%. But I can see any lower. Since we unfortunately dont have MTC1 data, We will have to go with recent MTC2 data. That is why I mentioned SC and Venom 2 which had complete tracking. I can look at Eternals as well(That relatively did worse at MTC2 as well). 

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3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Is anyone tracking WSS?

I will do it starting next week. I did a cursory glance at some AMCs yesterday and it didn't sell too much, but this isn't really a film that will have huge upfront sales, even with it being based off a popular musical.

 

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

I think not. May be @keysersoze123 may check but its gonna to be too small to bother tbh.

 

For others, there are WAY too many shows for NWH which takes a lot of time and mind work. Not sensible to expect any other film's tracking barring may be Matrix. 

 

Its insane @Eric Madrigal is putting so much work tracking Sing 2 along with NWH at this point.

That's what makes me a professional 😎

 

And in all fairness, Sing 2 doesn't have that many shows. Outside of a couple theaters, Sing 2 only has like 2-4 shows per theater, so it only takes me a couple minutes to check, especially since a couple theaters have like...three sales or just flat-out none. Matrix will likely be a bigger problem, but it'll still likely only be like 4 shows per theater to check, at least pre-NWH's opening, so I don't see it being that huge a deal.

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