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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
T-15 Spider-Man PLF 38 123 6,810 8,388 81.19% $14.46 $98,495.84
    Standard 78 367 6,938 10,917 63.55% $11.02 $76,441.76
  Spider-Man Total   116 490 13,748 19,305 71.21% $12.72 $174,937.60
T-16 Spidey (Fri) PLF 56 352 6,184 12,379 49.96% $14.43 $89,247.60
    Standard 84 399 4,166 13,046 31.93% $10.68 $44,485.33
  Spidey (Fri) Total   140 751 10,350 25,425 40.71% $12.92 $133,732.93

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

No new shows added in the past 24 hours which means a lighter sales day.  Available seats for previews went from 31.32% to 28.79% - hopefully more shows get added soon.  Oh, another update to the table - ATP is now the average for tickets sold instead of average price for all showings in that category.

 

Breakdown for matinee pricing

 

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
T-15 Spider-Man N 85 325 10,654 14,045 75.86% $13.48 $143,662.61
    Y 31 165 3,094 5,260 58.82% $10.11 $31,274.99
  Spider-Man Total   116 490 13,748 19,305 71.21% $12.72 $174,937.60
T-16 Spidey (Fri) N 71 335 7,697 13,419 57.36% $13.71 $105,535.18
    Y 69 416 2,653 12,006 22.10% $10.63 $28,197.75
  Spidey (Fri) Total   140 751 10,350 25,425 40.71% $12.92 $133,732.93

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
T-14 Spider-Man PLF 38 31 6,841 8,388 81.56% $14.46 $98,910.23
    Standard 78 139 7,077 10,917 64.83% $11.01 $77,887.35
  Spider-Man Total   116 170 13,918 19,305 72.10% $12.70 $176,797.58
T-15 Spidey (Fri) PLF 56 198 6,382 12,379 51.56% $14.40 $91,890.49
    Standard 84 242 4,408 13,046 33.79% $10.68 $47,095.98
  Spidey (Fri) Total   140 440 10,790 25,425 42.44% $12.88 $138,986.47

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Still hasn't added a new batch of shows, which means a pretty slow sales day.  Not much else to say for now.

 

Matinee splits

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
T-14 Spider-Man N 85 91 10,745 14,045 76.50% $13.47 $144,770.53
    Y 31 79 3,173 5,260 60.32% $10.09 $32,027.05
  Spider-Man Total   116 170 13,918 19,305 72.10% $12.70 $176,797.58
T-15 Spidey (Fri) N 71 243 7,940 13,419 59.17% $13.70 $108,776.45
    Y 69 197 2,850 12,006 23.74% $10.60 $30,210.02
  Spidey (Fri) Total   140 440 10,790 25,425 42.44% $12.88 $138,986.47
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42 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think not. May be @keysersoze123 may check but its gonna to be too small to bother tbh.

 

For others, there are WAY too many shows for NWH which takes a lot of time and mind work. Not sensible to expect any other film's tracking barring may be Matrix. 

 

Its insane @Eric Madrigal is putting so much work tracking Sing 2 along with NWH at this point.

With Keyser on top of NWH, I can do WSS and other small films that anyone wants. 

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would not compare with my data for SW9 for NWH. That seemed way too low looking at preview gross. I would look at recent tracked movies and extrapolate. 

 

Shang Chi when I stopped tracking was at 121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows. So it needs 5x gross to hit ~ 44m. average ticket price goes for a toss as PLF screens are limited. So Spidey needs around 650K at MTC2 to hit 5x Shang Chi. 

 

Venom 2 - 198739/715979 2541472.68. 4x this gross would mean 46.4m. That would be around 825K tickets. 

 

Venom 2 over indexed at MTC2 while Shang Chi probably did worse. I would say somewhere in between for Spidey as its doing Cray at MTC2. So I would say target is 750K tickets. 

 

Actually, I think Spidey will equally overindex at MTC2 b/c while it may be a slightly (and I mean slightly) less diverse demo than Venom 2, it's gonna be a higher family demo than that movie, so Venom 2 would be my comparison...

 

PS - MTC 2 offered all 1st day buyers 25 extra reward points if you bought tickets on the 1st day of sales...so I did, and I expect many rewards members did...

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Just an FYI, I live in the Kansas City, Mo area.  We have an AMC theater that has now posted 5 showings after midnight on Thursday for NWH.  2 PLFs (1:30 and 1:50am) and 3 regular screens (around 12:30am).  I'm not positive about TROS but I believe that the last time any theater that did that in my area was for Endgame.  They almost ran it 24hrs straight.  The rest of the weekend looks like resent normal times.  Basically nothing before noon and the last showing around 10PM.  Now if we could just get the 9 and 10am showings back on F/S/S.  I like the early showings.

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32 minutes ago, thedast said:

?? those films get high critic and audience scores and did  880m and 1.1b+ respectively so... 

I recognize that to say both films suck is just my opinion. It is just I do not care about RTs ratings, if you mean high critic. I think both Spidey's are among the 3 or 4 worst films of the whole MCU. But looking at the numbers, none of them did specially impressive figures.

 

Excluding Chinese grosses to make a fair showdown, Spider-man films have done this:

SM1: 820m

SM2: 783m

SM3: 875m

TASM1: 708m

TASM2: 615m

Homecoming: 764m

Far from home: 932m

 

Homecoming is under the whole Raimi trilogy and not too far from the first TASM. FFH had the best result, but taking into account it was the first MCU film after Endgame, I do not find its result specially shocking. In fact, the same year, an unkown character like Captain Marvel grossed the same. And I am not applying inflation. I do not think it is a superb result with the MCU brand supporting it.

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would not compare with my data for SW9 for NWH. That seemed way too low looking at preview gross. I would look at recent tracked movies and extrapolate. 

 

Shang Chi when I stopped tracking was at 121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows. So it needs 5x gross to hit ~ 44m. average ticket price goes for a toss as PLF screens are limited. So Spidey needs around 650K at MTC2 to hit 5x Shang Chi. 

 

Venom 2 - 198739/715979 2541472.68. 4x this gross would mean 46.4m. That would be around 825K tickets. 

 

Venom 2 over indexed at MTC2 while Shang Chi probably did worse. I would say somewhere in between for Spidey as its doing Cray at MTC2. So I would say target is 750K tickets. 


Ok I will try to extrapolate off Venom 2. I feel like that’ll be closer than Shang Chi (comparatively, though obviously much smaller).

 

Do you have Venom 2 numbers T-15? I went back and looked and don’t see them. 
 

At T-13 your MTC2 numbers were 16.8k sold. NWH will be roughly 21x that by T-13. Soooo I guess that means $240M previews!!! 😋

 

V2 went up 11.8X in the final 13 days. Total number +182k. Obviously NWH can’t do the multiple but I think 2-3x the actual is feasible. That would put us somewhere between 700-900k. Depending on overindexing, looks like we’d be at $46-58M.

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24 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:


Ok I will try to extrapolate off Venom 2. I feel like that’ll be closer than Shang Chi (comparatively, though obviously much smaller).

 

Do you have Venom 2 numbers T-15? I went back and looked and don’t see them. 
 

At T-13 your MTC2 numbers were 16.8k sold. NWH will be roughly 21x that by T-13. Soooo I guess that means $240M previews!!! 😋

 

V2 went up 11.8X in the final 13 days. Total number +182k. Obviously NWH can’t do the multiple but I think 2-3x the actual is feasible. That would put us somewhere between 700-900k. Depending on overindexing, looks like we’d be at $46-58M.

I just meant final number. Venom 2 initial PS was anemic. Cannot extrapolate final days PS with that. 

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2 minutes ago, Momori said:

 

"Thank you all! Spider-Man: No Way Home has broken the historical record for early sales in Spain in its first 24 hours. Reserve yours now!"


This thread is for domestic tracking. Let’s put all the none domestic stuff in the Spider-Man NWH International Thread

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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:


This thread is for domestic tracking. Let’s put all the none domestic stuff in the Spider-Man NWH International Thread

Got you 👍

Edited by Momori
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At the risk of being the Skunk at the Party, I would caution ever so slightly comparing NWH's Day 4 and EG's Day 4 when we get those numbers simply because one is nearly a week closer to release than the other.  If there is any thread on this forum where we should appreciate the difference length of pre-sales windows make, it's this one.

 

Probably isn't a huge factor.  Is a minor factor though, I think.

 

(also @keysersoze123's point about permanent theater closures is the main reason why I'm leery of comping EG and NWH at all in the first place.  I think it's fine enough as a relative bar right now.  But once we get to final numbers BW/V2/SC  >>>>>  EG/IW/TROS when it comes to data analysis.  The only proviso here is that NWH is so big that some theaters that have fewer showtimes on Thr due to staffing will very likely throw caution to the wind and let 'er rip anyway.  Still, even with that, just... Just beware of what a straight IW/EG/TROS comp might suggest when all is said and done)

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3 hours ago, peludo said:

I recognize that to say both films suck is just my opinion. It is just I do not care about RTs ratings, if you mean high critic. I think both Spidey's are among the 3 or 4 worst films of the whole MCU. But looking at the numbers, none of them did specially impressive figures.

 

Excluding Chinese grosses to make a fair showdown, Spider-man films have done this:

SM1: 820m

SM2: 783m

SM3: 875m

TASM1: 708m

TASM2: 615m

Homecoming: 764m

Far from home: 932m

 

Homecoming is under the whole Raimi trilogy and not too far from the first TASM. FFH had the best result, but taking into account it was the first MCU film after Endgame, I do not find its result specially shocking. In fact, the same year, an unkown character like Captain Marvel grossed the same. And I am not applying inflation. I do not think it is a superb result with the MCU brand supporting it.

Captain Marvel had both Infinity War and Endgame help.

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One thing to note for Spidey and Xmas movie tracking...Atom is letting everyone know that it is the 12th day on Amazon Pay's 12 days of Xmas deals.  I don't know if this will involve Atom gift cards, Atom direct discounts on movies for X time, etc, but on Dec 12, there will be a released deal for that day only, so look for a bump to something on Dec 12:)...

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WSS, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, Dezember 10 (8 days to go):
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes so far
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18):
7 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16):
53 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 85 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 157.

Comps (all counted for Friday): Respect (8.8M OW) had on Thursday of its release week 152 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters. Means WSS has 7 days left to increase the lead.
In the Heights (11.5M OW) had on Friday (= 1 day later than my count today) 400 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters.
And Cats (6.6M OW) had
on Monday of its release week 150 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters so WSS has 4 days left to increase the lead.
Two comps look good for WSS, one not (In the Heights). In the Heights' presales were very good first but it didn't have big jumps in its final week. I also think that NWH got almost all attention this week.
At the moment the presales of WSS are neither extraordinary in my theaters nor a reason to worry.

Edited by el sid
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Spiderman No Way Home

Greater Toronto Area, Ontario Canada

Taken Dec 2 for Thurs Dec 16

 

Total theatres 25

Total shows 154

Total Sold 24959 (Previous take Nov 29 16177)

Total Remaining 14935

Total Seats 39894

Percentage 62.5 

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