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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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4 hours ago, peludo said:

I recognize that to say both films suck is just my opinion. It is just I do not care about RTs ratings, if you mean high critic. I think both Spidey's are among the 3 or 4 worst films of the whole MCU. But looking at the numbers, none of them did specially impressive figures.

 

Excluding Chinese grosses to make a fair showdown, Spider-man films have done this:

SM1: 820m

SM2: 783m

SM3: 875m

TASM1: 708m

TASM2: 615m

Homecoming: 764m

Far from home: 932m

 

Homecoming is under the whole Raimi trilogy and not too far from the first TASM. FFH had the best result, but taking into account it was the first MCU film after Endgame, I do not find its result specially shocking. In fact, the same year, an unkown character like Captain Marvel grossed the same. And I am not applying inflation. I do not think it is a superb result with the MCU brand supporting it.

 

But Homecoming was close to SM2 and FFH beat every Raimi movie.

 

I don't see the point of dragging the MCU. They saved the franchise.

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1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

Has there been any numbers for Matrix yet? I'm kinda curious how that's tracking.

 

Not that I've seen, but I checked my Cinemarks for "presets" and right now, it, like King's Man, is looking at single screens with 4 showings...so, not booked for a breakout...

 

Whereas, Spidey has 3 screens Xmas day...right now...

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2005 2885 69.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1748 3450 50.67%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
11135 743 30080 37.02% 15 195

 

Showings added: 25

Seats added: 2690

 

AMCs sold 6195
Cinemarks sold 2207
Regals sold 1752
Harkins sold 981

 

Eternals final comp: 23.76M

NTTD final comp: 23.64M

Shang-Chi final comp: 24.28M

Black Widow final comp: 23.10M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 27.23M

 

Adjusted T-15 days TRoS comp: 42.57M

 

I fat fingered one of the showings yesterday, so yesterday's increase was really +709 not +1059. I'll start doing daily pace comparisons tomorrow

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2091 2975 70.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1808 4232 42.72%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
11681 546 31343 37.27% 15 204

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 1263

 

AMCs sold 6471
Cinemarks sold 2320
Regals sold 1845
Harkins sold 1045

 

Eternals final comp: 24.93M

Shang-Chi final comp: 25.48M

Black Widow final comp: 24.24M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 28.42M

 

Adjusted T-14 days TRoS comp: 43.88M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

Spoiler

NWH day 14: +546

8.4x Eternals (+65)

5.87x Shang-Chi (+93)

9.25x Black Widow (+59)

 

Adjusted NWH day 14: +426

3.64x TRoS (+117)

 

The pace comparisons are messy. I think the new showings made the drop relatively soft, and will continue to do so. May have to wait another couple days for some level of stabilization. On a side note, the first Friday "Thursday previews" 12AM and later showings have popped up. There's even one at 2:45AM. I feel for those that have to work until 6AM

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-15 days Thursday(150 showings): 16180(+1009)/36391(+2055) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 25.06M

Black Widow final comp: 25.80M

 

T-16 days Friday(178 showings): 10620(+781)/49656(+4792) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 24.47M

Black Widow final comp: 30.07M

 

T-17 days Saturday(175 showings): 4958(+690)/47474(+3782) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 13.94M

 

T-18 days Sunday(150 showings): 950(+123)/45074(+2200) in 15 theaters

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday(150 showings): 16654(+474)/36391 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 25.80M

Black Widow final comp: 26.55M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH day 14: +474

8.32x Black Widow (+57)

9.67x NTTD (+49)

 

T-15 days Friday(178 showings): 11471(+851)/49656 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 26.43M

Black Widow final comp: 32.48M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH day 14: +851

18.11x Black Widow (+47)

11.66x NTTD (+73)

 

T-16 days Saturday(176 showings): 5465(+507)/47653(+179) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 15.36M

 

T-17 days Sunday(153 showings): 1081(+131)/46322(+1248) in 15 theaters

 

The Friday daily pace comparisons are gonna be tricky. The demand for Thursday will force people that want a good seat in primetime showings to just go see it another day. Especially for PLFs. So Friday might need a bit more time than Thursday for stabilization. 

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On 12/1/2021 at 4:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-15 days Thursday(254 showings): 22824(+1094)/33299(+783)

 

Eternals final comp: 21.59M

 

T-16 days Friday(316 showings): 18559(+1628)/42336(+672)

 

Eternals final comp: 30.21M

 

T-17 days Saturday(352 showings): 16093(+1989)/46773(+921)

 

Eternals final comp: 26.02M

 

T-18 days Sunday(295 showings): 7166(+1453)/39325(+1120)

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-14 days Thursday(256 showings): 23447(+623)/33459(+160)

 

Eternals final comp: 22.18M

 

Daily pace comparison: 4.21x Eternals (+148)

 

T-15 days Friday(315 showings): 19329(+767)/42336(-177)

 

Eternals final comp: 31.46M

 

Daily pace comparison: 3.97x Eternals (+193)

 

T-16 days Saturday(352 showings): 17367(+1274)/46773

 

Eternals final comp: 28.08M

 

Daily pace comparison: 6.10x Eternals (+209)

 

T-17 days Sunday(295 showings): 7986(+820)/39325

 

Thursday will be kinda interesting to watch over the next 2 weeks. I think Drafthouse is already stretching to the limit with the number of showings they have unless they add a bunch of early morning Friday showings. It's already at 70% sold as a chain

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-encanto-and-ghostbusters-afterlife-to-lead-typical-post-thanksgiving-slowdown-christmas-with-the-chosen-boasts-sleeper-status/

 

Quote

Weekend Forecast

Boxoffice projects a 46 to 51 percent decrease for this weekend’s top ten films from last weekend’s $92.7 million top ten aggregate.

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 5 Location Count % Change from Last Wknd
Encanto Walt Disney Pictures $13,900,000 $59,400,000 3,980 -49%
Ghostbusters: Afterlife Sony Pictures / Columbia $11,000,000 $103,300,000 4,059 -55%
House of Gucci United Artists Releasing $7,500,000 $34,100,000 3,477 -48%
Eternals Disney / Marvel Studios $4,100,000 $156,700,000 3,230 -48%
Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers Fathom Events / Angel Studios $2,900,000 $4,400,000 ~1,600 NEW
Clifford the Big Red Dog Paramount Pictures $2,800,000 $46,800,000 3,261 -44%
Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City Sony Pictures / Columbia $2,700,000 $13,300,000 2,803 -49%
King Richard Warner Bros. Pictures $1,500,000 $13,700,000 2,654 -54%
Dune Warner Bros. Pictures $1,200,000 $104,000,000 1,217 -42%
No Time to Die MGM / EON / United Artists Releasing $875,000 $159,400,000 1,177 -49%
Venom: Let There Be Carnage Sony Pictures / Columbia $850,000 $210,800,000 1,234 -46%
Belfast Focus Features $700,000 $6,100,000 1,255 -27%

 

These drops seem...rather optimistic IMHO

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7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Arclight theaters were huge and always sellout for big pics. i remember biggest screen in Arclight hollywood had almost 1K seats. I hope they come back through another chain soon. Wasn't there a rumor of AMC acquiring those assets. 

I think Regal acquired a few properties. I was hoping that will be some respite for them.

 

Arclight did like 0.75% of nationwide from 15 cinemas. For previews they used to overindex like Megaplex chain.

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On 12/1/2021 at 8:08 PM, ZackM said:

Ok, I didn't make as much progress as I'd hoped, but I do have one theater chain working.

 

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting
           
12/1/2021 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 102 12755 18730 5975 31.90%

 

 

 

And I have TROS comps from the same set of theaters.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting
           
12/4/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 59 4739 10869 6130 56.40%

 

 

The difference in # of shows is entirely captured by the early screenings for Spider-Man.  Otherwise they have the same number of shows.

Big day for Spidey compared to TROS

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting
           
12/2/2021 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 104 12772 19044 6272 32.93%

 

Comp:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting
           
12/5/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 59 4626 10869 6243 57.44%
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Getting a strong feeling that reviews for Matrix 4 are gonna be weak and WB has little issue with the fact Spider-Man is completely overshadowing it (plus having to fight for holiday screen space with other titles like Sing 2, which is getting bigger auditoriums during the day before switching to smaller ones at night at a lot of theaters), in addition to it being the last HBO Max title. Hoping to be proven wrong though.

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On 11/30/2021 at 5:29 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home Current Number, 24 Screen Theater, 530PM - November 30, 2021

31 show times, 2039 tickets sold


Comparisons to Final Preview Numbers 

Endgame — 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold out 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold 
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold 

The Rise or Skywalker — 44 show times, 1826 tickets sold 

 

 

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home Current Number, 24 Screen Theater, 1030PM - December 2, 2021

42 show times, 2224 tickets sold


Comparisons to Final Preview Numbers 

Endgame — 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold out 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold 
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold 

The Rise or Skywalker — 44 show times, 1826 tickets sold 

 

Notes: Big show count expansion from 31 to 42. This includes a new 130AM Dolby and 2AM IMAX. No expansion of 3D shows (6 count), the rest are standard 2D. 

 

 

Edited by VenomXXR
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7 minutes ago, AndreasTheSecond said:

It has ALREADY sold more tickets than TROS and almost as many as A:IW?


At my location through my final count (which would be just before previews starts), yes.

 

TROS obviously underperformed at my theater, comparatively. 

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On 12/1/2021 at 11:48 PM, Eric Madrigal said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 197 13,851 36,796 37.64%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 21

Total Seats Added Today: 4,440

Total Seats Sold Today: 723

 

Comp

1.824x of Black Widow's Final Count (24.08M)

2.644x of Venom 2's Final Count (30.67M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.117x of Star Wars: TROS T-15 (44.68M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 202 14,709 37,428 39.30%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 632

Total Seats Sold Today: 858

 

Comp

1.937x of Black Widow's Final Count (25.57M)

2.808x of Venom 2's Final Count (32.57M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.157x of Star Wars: TROS T-14 (46.27M)

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On 12/1/2021 at 11:52 PM, Eric Madrigal said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 52 1475 9706 15.20%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 64

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 54 1474 9916 14.86%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 210

Total Seats Sold Today: -1

 

Yeah, one group just disappeared. Don't know if it was a refund or glitch or what, but it doesn't really matter.

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5 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 54 1474 9916 14.86%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 210

Total Seats Sold Today: -1

 

Yeah, one group just disappeared. Don't know if it was a refund or glitch or what, but it doesn't really matter.

Rate extrapolated 20M final previews :Venom:

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