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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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15 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

Is at least a 200M opening for Spider-Man guaranteed rn or not enough data to say yet?

 

IMO, yes. It would take a pretty spectacular shift at this point for it to fall below that. There are still variables we can't account for because we've never been in this particular situation but I feel in my gut that $200m is locked. 

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4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

What IM are you thinking? I’m going with 4.9-5 rn, so with my first scenario that I think is only technically possible, it would be around 59M previews -> 295M on the high end.

I think 5.5 is more likely. At least pre-Covid. We haven't had a film anywhere near this high since Covid began so there may be some frontloading as this needs to break into the casual audience more to achieve its potential. But normally I would expect Friday ~1.5x Thu, Sat +10% from Fri, Sun -18% from Sat or so. 

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2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

What IM are you thinking? I’m going with 4.9-5 rn, so with my first scenario that I think is only technically possible, it would be around 59M previews -> 295M on the high end.

 

A lot of people are going with low IM's for this. I believe Endgame has the lowest IM in the MCU so far at 5.95x.

I don't know honestly. On one hand, I have trouble rectifying this having the lowest IM of the MCU given the fact that the holiday situation should help the Sunday drop a bit. A while back I said I didn't think IM would go below 5.75x but a lot of really go trackers in here seem to think it could be as low as the upper-4's. 

10% worse than Endgame would be 5.36x, so I'm just gonna hope for that or more (on $48-52m previews). 

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55 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Can't beat a good thought experiment. Glad your scenarios all point to previews at $50m or more. Barring an unheard of amount of frontloadedness for an MCU film, NWH should knock off TFA and IW opening weekends. 

The longer we go that NWH rates don't fall against some of these comparisons, the more I'm beginning to think $300M is in play. I'm willing to wait another week though before calling for it to happen ;)

Late, I'm calling for 1 billie right now (づ◡﹏◡)づ

 

 

 

All kidding aside tho, i think 300M is feasible. FSS for IW was 218M, EG was 297M. Say previews is 55M for NWH, that leaves 245M for FSS. Considering the fact that it's blowing IW out of the water on a lot of metrics, +27M seems possible. Spillover from Thu will be huge. 

 

55M Thu and 5.5 IM will be exactly on the spot. Then we can have 300M and 3.33x.

Edited by nguyenkhoi282
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6 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Late, I'm calling for 1 billie right now (づ◡﹏◡)づ

 

 

 

All kidding aside tho, i think 300M is feasible. FSS for IW was 218M, EG was 297M. Say previews is 55M for NWH, that leaves 245M for FSS. Considering the fact that it's blowing IW out of the water on a lot of metrics, +27M seems possible. Spillover from Thu will be huge. 

 

55M Thu and 5.5 IM will be exactly on the spot. Then we can have 300M and 3.33x.

 

I'd definitely like for that to happen, it's just hard to wrap your head around it. I think the $300m OW is much more likely than the $1B total, but then again who ever expected TFA to go for $250m/$936m. 

 

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28 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think 5.5 is more likely. At least pre-Covid. We haven't had a film anywhere near this high since Covid began so there may be some frontloading as this needs to break into the casual audience more to achieve its potential. But normally I would expect Friday ~1.5x Thu, Sat +10% from Fri, Sun -18% from Sat or so. 

Yeah there are so many new factors for an MCU movie that we’re not sure about. But with Covid, December release, and nostalgia, I have a hard time seeing this having a higher IM than Rogue One. Even in pre-Covid if it released Dec. I probably would’ve gone with right around RO’s IM

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6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Yeah there are so many new factors for an MCU movie that we’re not sure about. But with Covid, December release, and nostalgia, I have a hard time seeing this having a higher IM than Rogue One. Even in pre-Covid if it released Dec. I probably would’ve gone with right around RO’s IM

SW is not a good comparison for the MCU (look at how preview loaded even a lower-hype SW film like Solo was). Still RO IM is around 5.34x, the one I posited was 5.5ish, so I think we're mostly in alignment (mostly bc this will have previews way higher than RO). 

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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

@Menor @keysersoze123 Any MTC data tonight? 

I am still getting errors for around 200 shows plus few shows have disappeared(may be MTC2 removed them after they sold out). So overall numbers still under what I posted 2 days ago. I will post what i get as I have just triggered run for previews. 

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13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am still getting errors for around 200 shows plus few shows have disappeared(may be MTC2 removed them after they sold out). So overall numbers still under what I posted 2 days ago. I will post what i get as I have just triggered run for previews. 

The third day number did feel like was higher than it should. May be that day had errors

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Don't know if this will be rolled into the numbers or not (probably will) but West Side Story is having early screenings in certain IMAX theaters Monday night followed by a live Q&A (with Spielberg, Elgort, DeBose, David Alvarez, and Mike Faist) that will be simulcast presumably from one of the theaters after the movie.

 

 

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The third day number did feel like was higher than it should. May be that day had errors

Here you go

SM NWH Previews(T-13) - 310778/722716 3975023.88 5124 shows

 

couple of hundred shows are not returning data and another 100 or so disappeared. I have asked @Menor to check as well.

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Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Here you go

SM NWH Previews(T-13) - 310778/722716 3975023.88 5124 shows

 

couple of hundred shows are not returning data and another 100 or so disappeared. I have asked @Menor to check as well.

 

Well shit. Who do we need to sacrifice to get this back on track?!?

seth meyers burn them at the stake GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers

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20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Here you go

SM NWH Previews(T-13) - 310778/722716 3975023.88 5124 shows

 

couple of hundred shows are not returning data and another 100 or so disappeared. I have asked @Menor to check as well.

I definitely have it higher than that. It's taking a long time though but I am getting 5400+ shows and definitely at least 325k tickets, maybe even higher. 

Edited by Menor
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23 hours ago, Eric Madrigal said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 202 14,709 37,428 39.30%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 632

Total Seats Sold Today: 858

 

Comp

1.937x of Black Widow's Final Count (25.57M)

2.808x of Venom 2's Final Count (32.57M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.157x of Star Wars: TROS T-14 (46.27M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 202 15,292 37,428 40.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 583

 

Comp

2.014x of Black Widow's Final Count (26.58M)

2.919x of Venom 2's Final Count (33.86M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.188x of Star Wars: TROS T-13 (47.52M)

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On 12/3/2021 at 1:10 AM, Eric Madrigal said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 54 1474 9916 14.86%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 210

Total Seats Sold Today: -1

 

Yeah, one group just disappeared. Don't know if it was a refund or glitch or what, but it doesn't really matter.

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 54 1474 9916 14.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Your eyes do not deceive you. But again, it's not a big deal for a movie like this.

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