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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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11 minutes ago, Cap said:

(Deletes my fury of crumbling memes I had cued up)

 

23 hours ago, Eric Madrigal said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

Total Seats Sold Today: 858

 

4 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

Total Seats Sold Today: 583

 

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Spider-Man No Way Home MTC2

 

Thursday:

 

Showtimes: 5361

Seats Sold: 325502/731184

$ Sales: 4203073

 

Friday:

 

Showtimes: 6018

Seats Sold: 243375/900832

$ Sales: 2929001

 

Will edit post with Friday numbers later. I do feel like something is a little off with the numbers relative to earlier (just some strange patterns in the relative distribution of sales that shouldn't have changed much from my earlier runs) but who knows. I would go with the regional comps for now as they seem to be in good convergence. This is from all theaters btw. 

Edited by Menor
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On 12/1/2021 at 11:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man No Way Home MTC2

Previews(T-15) -  326221/786783 4220884.58 5418 shows +33081

Friday(T-16) -      245668/964001 2963908.30 6225 shows +33525

Saturday(T-17) - 166676/981947 1988769.52 6370 shows +28321

 

Another crazy strong day. No signs of slowing down so far. 

 

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Spider-Man No Way Home MTC2

 

Thursday:

 

Showtimes: 5361

Seats Sold: 325502/731184

$ Sales: 4203073

 

Will edit post with Friday numbers later. I do feel like something is a little off with the numbers relative to earlier (just some strange patterns in the relative distribution of sales that shouldn't have changed much from my earlier runs) but who knows. I would go with the regional comps for now as they seem to be in good convergence. This is from all theaters btw. 

 

Yea definitely something up one way or the other, since tickets sold/sales/showtimes are lower on this run than Keyser's 2 days ago and seat count went down 50k. 

 

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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

Yea definitely something up one way or the other, since tickets sold/sales/showtimes are lower on this run than Keyser's 2 days ago and seat count went down 50k. 

 

One thing is MTC2 may be removing sellouts from their site altogether. Two days ago I had 30+ sellouts counted, now only 8. So something is up there. 

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I actually think 325K now is the correct no. 3rd day felt very unlikely back then to me.

 

Trend of Sacramento and Harkins suggest 325K would be correct no.

 

Sacramento First 4 days
13,279
1,361
628
511

 

Harkins

29680
3066
1539
1318

 

It didn't made sense that day 3 in MTC 2 was par day 2. 50% drop was universal in our regionals, especially these two South West regional trackings, which is where MTC 2 has bulk of theaters.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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24 minutes ago, Menor said:

One thing is MTC2 may be removing sellouts from their site altogether. Two days ago I had 30+ sellouts counted, now only 8. So something is up there. 

People change seats from bottom row of sold out shows to newer shows. I am seeing this a lot in Harkins. Very filled shows gets seats reduced and newer show around it gain those.

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and Counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

0

298

20647

36426

15779

43.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today 

511

 

As of T-14, No Way Home has sold...

1.7159x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [23.71m]*

2.6986x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [23.74m]

2.0460x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [23.73m]

2.4620x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [23.39m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

Day 4 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under official protest]  [100% use at own risk — see cautionary note below]

 

   %

 

Sold Day 3

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

EG

83.32

 

350

16998

 

7/221

6026/23024

73.83%

 

49.99m

NWH (adj)

---

 

455

14162

 

0/298

17314/31476

44.99%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 10 to 15 PERCENT, or even more. 

 

Regal:       4177/12528 [33.34% sold] [+142 tickets]

Matinee:    1458/5023  [29.03% | 9.24% of all tickets sold]

 

EXTREME GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO MYRAID IRRITANTS COMPS: (behind spoiler cut for space)

  Reveal hidden contents
data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==

 

=====

 

Switching over to T-x comps starting tomorrow as, as I suspected it might this morning, the calendar compression is already starting to rear its head versus Endgame (well that and the sheer amount of available showtimes).

 

Also, as noted in my last post, accidentally put down the wrong number of sales for NWH yesterday.  Corrected the number in the quote and in the old post.

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

0

308

21367

37552

16185

43.10%

 

Total Showings Added Today 

10

Total Seats Added Today 

1126

Total Seats Sold Today 

406

 

As of T-13, No Way Home has sold...

1.7600x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [24.33m]*

2.7681x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [24.36m]

2.0987x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [24.34m]

2.5254x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [23.99m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

Day 5 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under official protest]  [100% use at own risk — see cautionary note below]

 

   %

 

Sold Day 5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

EG

84.10

 

247

17245

 

8/221

5779/23024

74.90%

 

50.46m

NWH (adj)

---

 

341

14503

 

0/308

18084/32587

44.51%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 10 to 15 PERCENT, or even more. 

 

Regal:       4284/12528 [34.20% sold] [+107 tickets]

Matinee:    1504/5023  [29.94% | 9.29% of all tickets sold]

 

EXTREME GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO MYRAID IRRITANTS COMPS:

1.0885x TROS at T-13                                              [43.54m]

0.7898x Endgame at T-13                                        [47.39m]

 

Edited by Porthos
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@Porthos Question, what do you think is a safe estimate at this point that Sacto NWH sales should be able to do? T-13 V2 was at 970 tickets vs final V2 at 7842, a 6872 ticket difference. 

Obviously I'm trying not to comp outside of the last few months and V2 seems like that best option to me, but in the same time period EG did +5797  and TROS did +5388.

 

Personally I'm thinking +10,000-12,000 from now until your final report. 

 

 

 

Edited by VenomXXR
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On 12/3/2021 at 9:02 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
  Black Widow Total   21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 6 72 10,311 1,811 526 17.56%
    Phoenix 7 59 8,999 1,848 320 20.54%
    Raleigh 8 37 4,098 1,713 380 41.80%
  Eternals Total   21 168 23,408 5,372 1,226 22.95%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
    Phoenix 7 51 7,193 1,349 262 18.75%
    Raleigh 8 40 4,505 1,327 332 29.46%
  Shang-Chi Total   21 151 20,317 4,099 1,087 20.18%
T-13 Spider-Man Jacksonville 7 154 22,299 5,228 246 23.44%
    Phoenix 6 121 18,441 7,267 401 39.41%
    Raleigh 8 75 8,780 4,862 242 55.38%
  Spider-Man Total   21 350 49,520 17,357 889 35.05%

 

Well this looks almost identical to yesterday's report.  Four new shows were added and it beat yesterday's sales by two.  While that's a lower % increase, it's still impressive that sales haven't slowed too much yet.  I did get to thinking today that the newest Cinemark in Jacksonville wasn't opened until after Shang-Chi.  Here are the comparisons with the same theater list (though one would have to assume Eternals and Spider-Man would be doing better in the other Jacksonville theaters if there wasn't a brand new Cinemark there.)

 

 

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 5 57 8,821 1,417 408 16.06%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
T-13 Spider-Man Jacksonville 6 125 19,555 4,478 199 22.90%

 

Crazy how those six theaters have already given Spider-Man 49 more shows that BW ended with and are still at a higher % sold.  

 

T-13 increase % comps

 

Spider - 5.4%

BW - 7.55%

SC - 11.79%

Venom 2 - 15.37%

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $233,246 (13.44 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

 

Movie Mat Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man N 15,164 87.37% $209,175.35 13.79
  Y 2,193 12.63% $24,071.17 10.98
Grand Total   17,357 100.00% $233,246.52

13.44

 

 

Movie Format Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man PLF 6,702 38.61% $108,348.72 16.17
  Standard 10,655 61.39% $124,897.80 11.72
Grand Total   17,357 100.00% $233,246.52 13.44

 

Full showtime report coming a little later, so I'll leave that off for now.  

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
  Black Widow Total   21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 6 72 10,311 1,811 526 17.56%
    Phoenix 7 59 8,999 1,848 320 20.54%
    Raleigh 8 37 4,098 1,713 380 41.80%
  Eternals Total   21 168 23,408 5,372 1,226 22.95%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
    Phoenix 7 51 7,193 1,349 262 18.75%
    Raleigh 8 40 4,505 1,327 332 29.46%
  Shang-Chi Total   21 151 20,317 4,099 1,087 20.18%
T-12 Spider-Man Jacksonville 7 154 22,299 5,449 221 24.44%
    Phoenix 6 127 18,687 7,504 237 40.16%
    Raleigh 8 76 8,925 5,031 169 56.37%
  Spider-Man Total   21 357 49,911 17,984 627 36.03%

 

Seven new shows added but sales are slowing down.  There were seven or eight shows that went down 5-10 in sales; not sure if those people were moving to other shows, a different day, or cancelling altogether but new sales looked better without those.  The good news is that all of the comps had a similar slow down on this day.  

 

T-12 increase % comps

 

Spider - 3.61%

BW - 4.51%

SC - 6.75%

Venom 2 - 10.88%

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $241,526 (13.43 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

Movie Mat Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man N 15,739 87.52% $216,917.82 13.78
  Y 2,245 12.48% $24,608.48 10.96
Grand Total   17,984 100.00% $241,526.30 13.43

 

Movie Format Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man PLF 6,869 38.20% $111,154.46 16.18
  Standard 11,115 61.80% $130,371.84 11.73
Grand Total   17,984 100.00% $241,526.30 13.43

 

US showtimes sample is up to 26,730 in 2,849 theaters with 4,821 PLF shows.

 

Show time splits

 

Time Shows %
3:00 2,192 8.20%
3:01-3:59 2,201 8.23%
4:00-4:59 3,397 12.71%
5:00-5:59 2,232 8.35%
6:00-6:59 3,433 12.84%
7:00-7:59 4,373 16.36%
8:00-8:59 2,749 10.28%
9:00-9:59 2,263 8.47%
10:00-10:59 2,554 9.56%
11:00+ 1,335 4.99%

 

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7 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $241,526 (13.43 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Would you happen to know previews ATP for TROS or Endgame? 

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I think based on shows removed and errors seen at MTC2 its close to 350K.

 

Unfortunately usual way of scrapping MTC1 is done. But it's possible to use Selenium though it will take like 12 hours and system becomes unusable with popping windows. But MTC1 will not disappoint. It's looking YUGE.

 

Edit: Never mind. its failing now. They are blocking all my calls. So no data for today. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

But MTC1 will not disappoint. It's looking YUGE.


Good to know! Makes sense given they (MTC1) said 1st day sales where within 1.5% of EG. Wonder if it could be bigger than EG at this point given the closer-to-release window for NWH? 

 

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