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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Don't forget how theater scheduling works, especially over the holiday.  Theaters have to be conservative in the scheduling because the mix of film is going to fill out the theaters and they have to be careful what is coming in on Dec. 22nd and where they are going to place it.  A lot of theaters also have private events for the Holiday season and they hold off scheduling until those are booked and scheduled.  

 

You will see what the actual opening week schedule for Spider-Man looks like sometime on the afternoon of Dec. 13th.  

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13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Don't forget how theater scheduling works, especially over the holiday.  Theaters have to be conservative in the scheduling because the mix of film is going to fill out the theaters and they have to be careful what is coming in on Dec. 22nd and where they are going to place it.  A lot of theaters also have private events for the Holiday season and they hold off scheduling until those are booked and scheduled.  

 

You will see what the actual opening week schedule for Spider-Man looks like sometime on the afternoon of Dec. 13th.  

Thanks for the info. How do you feel about West Side Story's box office potential?

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51 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

BoxOfficeReport

 

2800 screens for West Side Story next week.

Into the Woods (Disney's previous Sondheim adaptation) opened in less than 2,500 theaters on Christmas Day despite being a star-studded fantasy with the additional backing of the Mickey brand itself and no 800-pound gorilla in the marketplace so this is expected.

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5 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

@Porthos Question, what do you think is a safe estimate at this point that Sacto NWH sales should be able to do? T-13 V2 was at 970 tickets vs final V2 at 7842, a 6872 ticket difference. 

Obviously I'm trying not to comp outside of the last few months and V2 seems like that best option to me, but in the same time period EG did +5797  and TROS did +5388.

 

Personally I'm thinking +10,000-12,000 from now until your final report. 

 

Stipulating in advance that mid-tier and even low-tier theaters will be pushing the envelope with showtimes (staffing shortages be damned), and having many more matinee showings and everything else that is gonna make this different than BW/SC/V2/ET, the benchmarks are, more or less...

 

BW/SC/V2/ET benchmarks

40m: 26,600 ish tickets sold

45m: 29,900 ish tickets sold

50m: 33,250 ish tickets sold

 

This is where the difference in the national environment comes in between EG/TROS and BW/SC/V2/ET as that amount of tickets sold would suggest a much higher result.

 

*****IF***** EG/TROS comps were indicative:

26,600 tickets equals approx 50m-52m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

29,900 tickets equals approx 56m-59m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

33,250 tickets equals approx 63m-65m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

 

****THIS**** is why I slapped a big fat "Made Under Official Protest" on my EG comp. There's something like a 23% difference between what a EG comp would suggest and every last Marvel movie I've tracked this year* and around something like a 21% difference between what a TROS comp would suggest and every last Marvel movie I've checked.  And at the numbers NWH is residing in, even a 20% difference is a lot.  While the relative difference between 40m and 50m is the same as between 4m and 5m, matters ever so slightly more as numbers get larger.  

* "Something like" as I'm only guessing at what the final adjust will be due to only having tracked one movie under the current tracking environment.

 

Now that I do the math, I'm actually a little bit surprised it was off by that much as I was expecting something in the 15 percent to 20 percent range.  In fact it's high enough that it makes me ******VERY****** tempted to yank the EG/TROS comp altogether and just use the final total metric of BW/SC/V2/ET while noting relative growth versus EG/TROS.

 

Gonna sit and stew on it.  But mostly want to yank it as I don't want expectations to be higher than they already are.  Especially if I'm gonna have wildly disparate comps toward the end.

Edited by Porthos
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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Stipulating in advance that mid-tier and even low-tier theaters will be pushing the envelope with showtimes (staffing shortages be damned), and having many more matinee showings and everything else that is gonna make this different than BW/SC/V2/ET, the benchmarks are, more or less...

 

BW/SC/V2/ET benchmarks

40m: 26,600 ish tickets sold

45m: 29,900 ish tickets sold

50m: 33,250 ish tickets sold

 

This is where the difference in the national environment comes in between EG/TROS and BW/SC/V2/ET as that amount of tickets sold would suggest a much higher result.

 

*****IF***** EG/TROS comps were indicative:

26,600 tickets equals approx 50m-52m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

29,900 tickets equals approx 56m-59m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

33,250 tickets equals approx 63m-65m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

 

****THIS**** is why I slapped a big fat "Made Under Official Protest" on my EG comp. There's something like a 23% difference between what a EG comp would suggest and every last Marvel movie I've tracked this year* and around and something like a 21% difference between what a TROS comp would suggest and every last Marvel movie I've checked.  And at the numbers NWH is residing in, even a 20% difference is a lot.  While the relative difference between 40m and 50m is the same as between 4m and 5m, matters ever so slightly more as numbers get larger.  

* "Something like" as I'm only guessing at what the final adjust will be due to only having tracked one movie under the current tracking environment.

 

Now that I do the math, I'm actually a little bit surprised it was off by that much as I was expecting something in the 15 percent to 20 percent range.  In fact it's high enough that it makes me ******VERY****** tempted to yank the EG/TROS comp altogether and just use the final total metric of BW/SC/V2/ET while noting relative growth versus EG/TROS.

 

Gonna sit and stew on it.  But mostly want to yank it as I don't want expectations to be higher than they already are.  Especially if I'm gonna have wildly disparate comps toward the end.

The question is if this movie can kick some lower-performing regions of the US back into gear. If so it would overperform what the BW/SC/V2 comps would suggest. Still better to use those comps to be safe. 

Edited by Menor
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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

The question is if this movie can kick some lower-performing regions of the US back into gear. If so it would overperform what the BW/SC/V2 comps would suggest. Still better to use those comps to be safe. 

 

Yes, that is a consideration (noted it at the beginning of my rant post).  I might be tempted to use a half-way point between BW/SC/V2/ET and EG/TROS as an official guesstimate, as that's what I ended up doing for EG back in the day and that worked out rather well. :)

 

(was only off by .04m ;))

 

Still, I wanted to highlight just what difference we could be talking about here before expectations really get set sky high as we get closer to release.

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Anyway, @VenomXXR, I really can't answer your question about how many more tickets NWH might get locally as I am in completely uncharted water.  The difference in sales window is more than enough to make me not want to use EG's relative sale pattern, never mind TROS's.  And the sheer level of interest makes it difficult to want to use SC's even though that's exactly the same length.

 

Thus those target benchmarks I gave are probably a better indication (let's say as a floor and ceiling) of where this might land than me trying to guess how many tickets this is headed to.

 

(do think is probably gonna be more than 10k more tickets for what it's worth 👍

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51 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BW/SC/V2/ET benchmarks

40m: 26,600 ish tickets sold

45m: 29,900 ish tickets sold

50m: 33,250 ish tickets sold

 

This is where the difference in the national environment comes in between EG/TROS and BW/SC/V2/ET as that amount of tickets sold would suggest a much higher result.

 

*****IF***** EG/TROS comps were indicative:

26,600 tickets equals approx 50m-52m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

29,900 tickets equals approx 56m-59m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

33,250 tickets equals approx 63m-65m (uncertainty due to unknown future adjustment factor)

 

 

Damn. I didn't realize the difference had grown so much. I don't know how feasible 3x V2 remaining is, or even how feasible +10-12k is given TROS and EG didn't even do 6k from here out. Hmm, it gives a lot to ponder. 

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23 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Damn. I didn't realize the difference had grown so much. I don't know how feasible 3x V2 remaining is, or even how feasible +10-12k is given TROS and EG didn't even do 6k from here out. Hmm, it gives a lot to ponder. 

 

10k-12k is feasible, I think, given the sheer amount of showtimes and good seats left.  Don't forget that NWH is currently sitting at 43% capacity region wide, while EG was at around 75% capacity on both Day 5 and T-13.  There are just soooooooo many showtimes (and seats) for NWH and I'm expecting at least 30 to 50 more to be added before all is said and done.

 

Something of a double edged sword, though, given the amount of matinee seating at non-MTC2 theaters.

Edited by Porthos
edited due to being slightly unclear
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1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

It's feasible, I think, given the sheer amount of showtimes and good seats left.  Don't forget that NWH is currently sitting at 43% capacity region wide, while EG was at around 75% capacity on both Day 5 and T-13.  There are just soooooooo many showtimes (and seats) for NWH and I'm expecting at least 30 to 50 more to be added before all is said and done.

 

Something of a double edged sword, though, given the amount of matinee seating at non-MTC2 theaters.

Variables GIF by Beauty and the Geek Australia

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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

Variables GIF by Beauty and the Geek Australia

 

Us in the Tracking Thread for the next 12 days or so:

 

math-confuse.gif

 

====

 

I would also add that the percentage of available seats also has some... implications for the weekend IM as it suggests that there won't be massive overflow from Thr into the weekend.  Could suggest more frontloading than normal for a MCU flick if so much demand got burnt on Thr and there were still a lot of "good enough" seats available on Thr.

 

(again stipulating that holiday season spread things out)

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5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Porthos is calling for 35k seats sold in Sacto!!! Tell your friends!!!!!

:ohmygod:

 

 

It's at 16.2k right now, so 10k more would be 26k.  That's what I was calling feasible.  ;)

 

19k more?  Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves, m'kay?

 

I'll go back and highlight which of your "feasibles" I was referring to, since you had more than one. 

Edited by Porthos
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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It's at 16.2k right now, so 10k more would be 26k.  That's what I was calling feasible.  ;)

 

19k more?  Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves, m'kay?

 

Sorry Porthos but you made the Unbreakable Vow to me that this would hit 35k. I don't make the rules but damnit, I will enforce them! 


#NWH35KPORTHOS2021

Edited by VenomXXR
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50 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Variables GIF by Beauty and the Geek Australia

This pretty much sums up the whole thing in a nutshell lol. Might do a count for GTA today but last I did it we were looking at I think 62 percent sold for Thursday preview. Thats pretty impressive for a movie 2 weeks away.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2164 3431 63.07%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1896 4232 44.80%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
12238 557 32614 37.52% 15 211

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 821

 

AMCs sold 6707
Cinemarks sold 2398
Regals sold 1980
Harkins sold 1153

 

Eternals final comp: 26.11M

Shang-Chi final comp: 26.69M

Black Widow final comp: 25.39M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 29.66M

 

Adjusted T-13 days TRoS comp: 45.34M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Impressive that there was a slight increase from yesterday. Honestly, it may be plausible to say that this is pretty close to the stabilization level. I'll do a post about some possible scenarios after I post all my numbers

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2189 3431 63.80%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1982 4232 46.83%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
12672 434 32711 38.74% 15 212

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 97

 

AMCs sold 6877
Cinemarks sold 2489
Regals sold 2090
Harkins sold 1216

 

Eternals final comp: 27.04M

Shang-Chi final comp: 27.64M

Black Widow final comp: 26.29M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 30.60M

 

Adjusted TRoS T-12 comp: 46.38M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

Spoiler

NWH T-12: +434, +3.55%

9.64x Shang-Chi T-12 (+45, +6.45%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-12: +333, +3.15%

TRoS T-12 (+78, +0.836%)

 

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-13 days Thursday(150 showings): 17132(+478)/36391 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 26.54M

Black Widow final comp: 27.32M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-14 days Friday(178 showings): 12155(+684)/49656 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 28.01M

Black Widow final comp: 34.42M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-15 days Saturday(176 showings): 5981(+516)/47653 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 16.81M

 

T-16 days Sunday(153 showings): 1208(+127)/46322 in 15 theaters

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-12 days Thursday(154 showings): 17521(+389)/37252(+861) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 27.14M

Black Widow final comp: 27.94M

 

T-13 days Friday(181 showings): 12626(+471)/50009(+353) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 29.09M

Black Widow final comp: 35.76M

 

T-14 days Saturday(178 showings): 6412(+431)/47880(+227) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 18.02M

 

T-15 days Sunday(153 showings): 1380(+172)/46322 in 15 theaters

 

No daily pace comparisons today. I could do a two day pace comparison of BW, but I'm feeling lazy

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Spiderman No Way Home 

Greater Toronto Area, Ontario 

Dec 16 taken Dec 4

 

25 theatres

186 shows

 

Total Sold 26401(previous 24959)

Total Remaining 22702 

Total Seats 49103

percentage 53.7

 

So percentage dropped almost 10, but then there were a bucketload of shows added so that dropped it down a bit, so that was expected. Will check again on Monday see how sales are.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-13 days Thursday(260 showings): 24008(+561, +2.39%)/33921(+462)

 

Eternals final comp: 22.71M

 

Daily pace comparison: 4.52x Eternals (+124, +2.83%)

 

T-14 days Friday(317 showings): 19964(+635, +3.29%)/41969(-367)

 

Eternals final comp: 32.49M

 

Daily pace comparison: 3.36x Eternals (+189, +5.06%)

 

T-15 days Saturday(354 showings): 18358(+991, +5.71%)/46434(-339)

 

Eternals final comp: 29.68M

 

Daily pace comparison: 6.83x Eternals (+145, +3.82%)

 

T-16 days Sunday(295 showings): 8641(+655)/38987(-338)

 

Looks like a theater or two downsized a few showings which may have messed with the actual increases for the day. But I'm not gonna worry about it

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-12 days Thursday(260 showings): 24490(+482)/33921

 

Eternals final comp: 23.16M

 

T-13 days Friday(317 showings): 20900(+936)/42409(+440)

 

Eternals final comp: 34.02M

 

T-14 days Saturday(354 showings): 19555(+1197)/47023(+589)

 

Eternals final comp: 31.62M

 

T-15 days Sunday(295 showings): 9451(+810)/39325(+338)

 

There were actually no showings that got downsized, just some showings not returning data yesterday at one theater. So the FSS daily increases are inflated. But I won't worry about fixing them since I'm just using final comps, and I'll skip the daily pace comparison.

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