The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

West Side Story MTC2

 

Thursday

Seats Sold: 2053/124763    

$ Sales: 26475  

Showtimes: 707    

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 3678/236186    

$ Sales: 41396    

Showtimes: 1277

 

Over 80 theaters haven't even put the tickets on sale...

Edited December 5, 2021 by Menor

[LegendaryBen]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

West Side Story MTC2

 

Thursday

Seats Sold: 2053/124763    

$ Sales: 26475  

Showtimes: 707    

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 3678/236186    

$ Sales: 41396    

Showtimes: 1277

 

Over 80 theaters haven't even put the tickets on sale...

Is that good or bad so far for it? I hope it's not a flop like DEH and ITH.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Is that good or bad so far for it? I hope it's not a flop like DEH and ITH.

I'm waiting to see the pace for comps. Right now thinking 10-15m OW?

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm waiting to see the pace for comps. Right now thinking 10-15m OW?

 

10 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Is that good or bad so far for it? I hope it's not a flop like DEH and ITH.

 

Might not flop with that OW, but it'll need strong holiday legs. The reported budget is $100M so we'd need at least 6-7x off a weekend like that and decent OS numbers. Doable but not a given. 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[Legion Again]

WSS’s release date is so unfortunate. NWH mid weekend alone would be okay but then 5 wide openers —including a few moderately big ones — in the first weekend its past contracts. Yeesh.

[filmlover]

Keep in mind that WSS is going to do a lot better in the big cities than it will anywhere else (NYC is naturally going to be by far the biggest market for it given the Broadway/Sondheim connections), which is why its theater count next weekend is on the low side for a $100M budget movie. All it needs to do is open to around $15M or more and it'll be set for a long run, especially when it's looking to be one of this year's biggest Oscar contenders.

[LegendaryBen]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Keep in mind that WSS is going to do a lot better in the big cities than it will anywhere else (NYC is naturally going to be by far the biggest market for it given the Broadway/Sondheim connections), which is why its theater count next weekend is on the low side for a $100M budget movie. All it needs to do is open to around $15M or more and it'll be set for a long run, especially when it's looking to be one of this year's biggest Oscar contenders.

I'm predicting that number for its OW. I hope it's selling better than ITH.

[Legion Again]

37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Keep in mind that WSS is going to do a lot better in the big cities than it will anywhere else (NYC is naturally going to be by far the biggest market for it given the Broadway/Sondheim connections), which is why its theater count next weekend is on the low side for a $100M budget movie. All it needs to do is open to around $15M or more and it'll be set for a long run, especially when it's looking to be one of this year's biggest Oscar contenders.

I don't understand the thesis here. It's not like the competition will be skipping the big urban centers.

[Cap]

4 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I don't understand the thesis here. It's not like the competition will be skipping the big urban centers.

The demographics for larger cities are going to be bread and butter to this movie. I believe that’s what he saying.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Cap said:

The demographics for larger cities are going to be bread and butter to this movie. I believe that’s what he saying.

Well, that's definitely the first sentence. The sentence seems to suggest "and therefore the competition will be less of a problem" and I'm just not sure how that is supposed to work. NYC will also be slammed by NWH M4 Sing2 Kings Man Underdog Jordan.

[filmlover]

31 minutes ago, Cap said:

The demographics for larger cities are going to be bread and butter to this movie. I believe that’s what he saying.

This.

 

FYI I just checked NYC Thursday and Friday and multiple shows at AMC Lincoln Square (where it's playing in both Dolby Cinema and IMAX) are destined to sell out with how much they've already sold (not at all a surprise given the close proximity to Broadway). It's just a question of how big the divide will be between the cities where it's destined to do gangbusters and the ones where it won't. The Deadline breakdown next weekend will be fascinating for sure.

 

Competition by Christmas for it shouldn't be too much of an issue since it's only playing in a certain number of theaters to begin with (meaning it'll only have so much to lose) and chains will be more eager to drop everything from November that's already on the way out right now first.

Edited December 5, 2021 by filmlover

[Menor the Destroyer]

Spidey NWH MTC2

 

Thursday:

Seats Sold: 333681/731825  (+8179)

$ Sales: 4303747  (+100674)

Showtimes: 5365 (+4)   

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 252139/901481 (+8764)

$ Sales: 3026978 (+87977)

Showtimes:  6027 (+9)

[Eric Atreides]

On 12/4/2021 at 12:40 AM, Eric Madrigal said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	202	15,292	37,428	40.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 583

 

Comp

2.014x of Black Widow's Final Count (26.58M)

2.919x of Venom 2's Final Count (33.86M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.188x of Star Wars: TROS T-13 (47.52M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	202	15,799	37,428	40.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 507

 

Comp

2.081x of Black Widow's Final Count (27.47M)

3.016x of Venom 2's Final Count (34.99M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.207x of Star Wars: TROS T-12 (48.29M)

[Eric Atreides]

On 12/4/2021 at 12:42 AM, Eric Madrigal said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	54	1474	9916	14.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Your eyes do not deceive you. But again, it's not a big deal for a movie like this.

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	54	1480	9916	14.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

[Porthos]

On 12/3/2021 at 11:01 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

 No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	308	21367	37552	16185	43.10%

 

Total Showings Added Today	10
Total Seats Added Today	1126
Total Seats Sold Today	406

 

As of T-13, No Way Home has sold...

1.7600x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [24.33m]*

2.7681x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [24.36m]

2.0987x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [24.34m]

2.5254x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [23.99m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

Day 5 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under official protest]  [100% use at own risk — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold Day 5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	84.10		247	17245		8/221	5779/23024	74.90%		50.46m
NWH (adj)	---		341	14503		0/308	18084/32587	44.51%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 10 to 15 PERCENT, or even more. 

 

Regal:       4284/12528 [34.20% sold] [+107 tickets]

Matinee:    1504/5023  [29.94% | 9.29% of all tickets sold]

 

EXTREME GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO MYRAID IRRITANTS COMPS:

1.0885x TROS at T-13                                              [43.54m]

0.7898x Endgame at T-13                                        [47.39m]

 

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	308	21020	37552	16532	44.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

347

 

As of T-12, No Way Home has sold...

1.7977x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [24.85m]*

2.8274x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [24.88m]

2.1437x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [24.87m]

2.5795x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [24.51m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under OFFICIAL PROTEST]  [***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	79.98		128	18492		11/243	6084/24576	75.24%		47.99m
TROS	109.83		157	14310		3/210	10194/24504	58.40%		43.93m
NWH (EG adj)	---		295	14789		0/308	17789/32587	45.41%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		311	15717		0/308	18626/34343	45.76%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       4413/12528 [35.23% sold] [+129 tickets]

Matinee:    1543/5023  [30.72% | 9.33% of all tickets sold]

 

 

===

 

Keeping the EG/TROS comps.... FOR NOW.  Strengthened my warnings on them as well as bumping up the error possibility.  We'll see how long I decide to keep them.  Might eventually decide to put the the whole comp block back under a spoiler box.  Play it by ear as usual.

 

Pace is absolutely slowing down, but still seeing spurts here and there as folks discover, hey, there's some damn good seats available.  Aside from that, we're in what passes for the lull for this type of movie.  Curious to see just how far it dips before ramping back up again.

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Porthos

[Cap]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Made under OFFICIAL PROTEST

 

I imagine like so 

[filmlover]

Was at Universal the past few days and Sing 2 promotional stuff is literally everywhere. Funnily enough, they also had a lot of stuff in their stores for the still-unreleased Minions 2.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-12	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	154	22,299	5,449	221	24.44%
		Phoenix	6	127	18,687	7,504	237	40.16%
		Raleigh	8	76	8,925	5,031	169	56.37%
	Spider-Man Total		21	357	49,911	17,984	627	36.03%

 

Seven new shows added but sales are slowing down.  There were seven or eight shows that went down 5-10 in sales; not sure if those people were moving to other shows, a different day, or cancelling altogether but new sales looked better without those.  The good news is that all of the comps had a similar slow down on this day.  

 

T-12 increase % comps

 

Spider - 3.61%

BW - 4.51%

SC - 6.75%

Venom 2 - 10.88%

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $241,526 (13.43 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	15,739	87.52%	$216,917.82	13.78
	Y	2,245	12.48%	$24,608.48	10.96
Grand Total		17,984	100.00%	$241,526.30	13.43

 

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	6,869	38.20%	$111,154.46	16.18
	Standard	11,115	61.80%	$130,371.84	11.73
Grand Total		17,984	100.00%	$241,526.30	13.43

 

US showtimes sample is up to 26,730 in 2,849 theaters with 4,821 PLF shows.

 

Show time splits

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	2,192	8.20%
3:01-3:59	2,201	8.23%
4:00-4:59	3,397	12.71%
5:00-5:59	2,232	8.35%
6:00-6:59	3,433	12.84%
7:00-7:59	4,373	16.36%
8:00-8:59	2,749	10.28%
9:00-9:59	2,263	8.47%
10:00-10:59	2,554	9.56%
11:00+	1,335	4.99%

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-11	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	154	22,299	5,630	181	25.25%
		Phoenix	6	128	18,728	7,680	176	41.01%
		Raleigh	8	76	8,925	5,151	120	57.71%
	Spider-Man Total		21	358	49,952	18,461	477	36.96%

 

Sales were steady at +1 to previous day.  One new show added, and a few switched from 3D to standard.

 

T-11 increase % comps

 

Spider - 2.65%

BW - 4.65%

SC - 6.19%

Venom 2 - 7.78%

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $247,782 (13.42 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	16,158	87.53%	$222,562.85	13.77
	Y	2,303	12.47%	$25,220.02	10.95
Grand Total		18,461	100.00%	$247,782.87	13.42

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	6,991	37.87%	$113,157.50	16.19
	Standard	11,470	62.13%	$134,625.37	11.74
Grand Total		18,461	100.00%	$247,782.87	13.42

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $247,782 (13.42 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Let's say +/-8 % to the numbers to account for regional flux, means previews are already sitting at roughly $32-37M domestically. 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Let's say +/-8 % to the numbers to account for regional flux, means previews are already sitting at roughly $32-37M domestically. 

 

That's a lot higher than what I have currently. ~$23M.