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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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West Side Story MTC2

 

Thursday

Seats Sold: 2053/124763    

$ Sales: 26475  

Showtimes: 707    

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 3678/236186    

$ Sales: 41396    

Showtimes: 1277

 

Over 80 theaters haven't even put the tickets on sale...

Edited by Menor
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7 minutes ago, Menor said:

West Side Story MTC2

 

Thursday

Seats Sold: 2053/124763    

$ Sales: 26475  

Showtimes: 707    

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 3678/236186    

$ Sales: 41396    

Showtimes: 1277

 

Over 80 theaters haven't even put the tickets on sale...

Is that good or bad so far for it? I hope it's not a flop like DEH and ITH.

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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm waiting to see the pace for comps. Right now thinking 10-15m OW?

 

10 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Is that good or bad so far for it? I hope it's not a flop like DEH and ITH.

 

Might not flop with that OW, but it'll need strong holiday legs. The reported budget is $100M so we'd need at least 6-7x off a weekend like that and decent OS numbers. Doable but not a given. 

 

Edited by Multiverse of XXR
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Keep in mind that WSS is going to do a lot better in the big cities than it will anywhere else (NYC is naturally going to be by far the biggest market for it given the Broadway/Sondheim connections), which is why its theater count next weekend is on the low side for a $100M budget movie. All it needs to do is open to around $15M or more and it'll be set for a long run, especially when it's looking to be one of this year's biggest Oscar contenders.

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5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Keep in mind that WSS is going to do a lot better in the big cities than it will anywhere else (NYC is naturally going to be by far the biggest market for it given the Broadway/Sondheim connections), which is why its theater count next weekend is on the low side for a $100M budget movie. All it needs to do is open to around $15M or more and it'll be set for a long run, especially when it's looking to be one of this year's biggest Oscar contenders.

I'm predicting that number for its OW. I hope it's selling better than ITH.

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37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Keep in mind that WSS is going to do a lot better in the big cities than it will anywhere else (NYC is naturally going to be by far the biggest market for it given the Broadway/Sondheim connections), which is why its theater count next weekend is on the low side for a $100M budget movie. All it needs to do is open to around $15M or more and it'll be set for a long run, especially when it's looking to be one of this year's biggest Oscar contenders.

I don't understand the thesis here. It's not like the competition will be skipping the big urban centers.

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4 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I don't understand the thesis here. It's not like the competition will be skipping the big urban centers.

The demographics for larger cities are going to be bread and butter to this movie. I believe that’s what he saying.

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1 minute ago, Cap said:

The demographics for larger cities are going to be bread and butter to this movie. I believe that’s what he saying.

Well, that's definitely the first sentence. The sentence seems to suggest "and therefore the competition will be less of a problem" and I'm just not sure how that is supposed to work. NYC will also be slammed by NWH M4 Sing2 Kings Man Underdog Jordan.

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31 minutes ago, Cap said:

The demographics for larger cities are going to be bread and butter to this movie. I believe that’s what he saying.

This.

 

FYI I just checked NYC Thursday and Friday and multiple shows at AMC Lincoln Square (where it's playing in both Dolby Cinema and IMAX) are destined to sell out with how much they've already sold (not at all a surprise given the close proximity to Broadway). It's just a question of how big the divide will be between the cities where it's destined to do gangbusters and the ones where it won't. The Deadline breakdown next weekend will be fascinating for sure.

 

Competition by Christmas for it shouldn't be too much of an issue since it's only playing in a certain number of theaters to begin with (meaning it'll only have so much to lose) and chains will be more eager to drop everything from November that's already on the way out right now first.

Edited by filmlover
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Spidey NWH MTC2

 

Thursday:

Seats Sold: 333681/731825  (+8179)

$ Sales: 4303747  (+100674)

Showtimes: 5365 (+4)   

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 252139/901481 (+8764)

$ Sales: 3026978 (+87977)

Showtimes:  6027 (+9)

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On 12/4/2021 at 12:40 AM, Eric Madrigal said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 202 15,292 37,428 40.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 583

 

Comp

2.014x of Black Widow's Final Count (26.58M)

2.919x of Venom 2's Final Count (33.86M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.188x of Star Wars: TROS T-13 (47.52M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 202 15,799 37,428 40.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 507

 

Comp

2.081x of Black Widow's Final Count (27.47M)

3.016x of Venom 2's Final Count (34.99M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.207x of Star Wars: TROS T-12 (48.29M)

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On 12/4/2021 at 12:42 AM, Eric Madrigal said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 54 1474 9916 14.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Your eyes do not deceive you. But again, it's not a big deal for a movie like this.

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 54 1480 9916 14.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

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On 12/3/2021 at 11:01 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

0

308

21367

37552

16185

43.10%

 

Total Showings Added Today 

10

Total Seats Added Today 

1126

Total Seats Sold Today 

406

 

As of T-13, No Way Home has sold...

1.7600x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [24.33m]*

2.7681x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [24.36m]

2.0987x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [24.34m]

2.5254x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [23.99m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

Day 5 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under official protest]  [100% use at own risk — see cautionary note below]

 

   %

 

Sold Day 5

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

EG

84.10

 

247

17245

 

8/221

5779/23024

74.90%

 

50.46m

NWH (adj)

---

 

341

14503

 

0/308

18084/32587

44.51%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 10 to 15 PERCENT, or even more. 

 

Regal:       4284/12528 [34.20% sold] [+107 tickets]

Matinee:    1504/5023  [29.94% | 9.29% of all tickets sold]

 

EXTREME GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO MYRAID IRRITANTS COMPS:

1.0885x TROS at T-13                                              [43.54m]

0.7898x Endgame at T-13                                        [47.39m]

 

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

0

308

21020

37552

16532

44.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today 

347

 

As of T-12, No Way Home has sold...

1.7977x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [24.85m]*

2.8274x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [24.88m]

2.1437x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [24.87m]

2.5795x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [24.51m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under OFFICIAL PROTEST]  [***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below]

 

   %

 

Sold T-12

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

EG

79.98

 

128

18492

 

11/243

6084/24576

75.24%

 

47.99m

TROS

109.83

 

157

14310

 

3/210

10194/24504

58.40%

 

43.93m

NWH (EG adj)

---

 

295

14789

 

0/308

17789/32587

45.41%

 

---

NWH (SW adj)

---

 

311

15717

 

0/308

18626/34343

45.76%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       4413/12528 [35.23% sold] [+129 tickets]

Matinee:    1543/5023  [30.72% | 9.33% of all tickets sold]

 

 

===

 

Keeping the EG/TROS comps.... FOR NOW.  Strengthened my warnings on them as well as bumping up the error possibility.  We'll see how long I decide to keep them.  Might eventually decide to put the the whole comp block back under a spoiler box.  Play it by ear as usual.

 

Pace is absolutely slowing down, but still seeing spurts here and there as folks discover, hey, there's some damn good seats available.  Aside from that, we're in what passes for the lull for this type of movie.  Curious to see just how far it dips before ramping back up again.

 

Edited by Porthos
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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
  Black Widow Total   21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 6 72 10,311 1,811 526 17.56%
    Phoenix 7 59 8,999 1,848 320 20.54%
    Raleigh 8 37 4,098 1,713 380 41.80%
  Eternals Total   21 168 23,408 5,372 1,226 22.95%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
    Phoenix 7 51 7,193 1,349 262 18.75%
    Raleigh 8 40 4,505 1,327 332 29.46%
  Shang-Chi Total   21 151 20,317 4,099 1,087 20.18%
T-12 Spider-Man Jacksonville 7 154 22,299 5,449 221 24.44%
    Phoenix 6 127 18,687 7,504 237 40.16%
    Raleigh 8 76 8,925 5,031 169 56.37%
  Spider-Man Total   21 357 49,911 17,984 627 36.03%

 

Seven new shows added but sales are slowing down.  There were seven or eight shows that went down 5-10 in sales; not sure if those people were moving to other shows, a different day, or cancelling altogether but new sales looked better without those.  The good news is that all of the comps had a similar slow down on this day.  

 

T-12 increase % comps

 

Spider - 3.61%

BW - 4.51%

SC - 6.75%

Venom 2 - 10.88%

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $241,526 (13.43 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

 

Movie Mat Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man N 15,739 87.52% $216,917.82 13.78
  Y 2,245 12.48% $24,608.48 10.96
Grand Total   17,984 100.00% $241,526.30 13.43

 

 

Movie Format Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man PLF 6,869 38.20% $111,154.46 16.18
  Standard 11,115 61.80% $130,371.84 11.73
Grand Total   17,984 100.00% $241,526.30 13.43

 

US showtimes sample is up to 26,730 in 2,849 theaters with 4,821 PLF shows.

 

Show time splits

 

Time Shows %
3:00 2,192 8.20%
3:01-3:59 2,201 8.23%
4:00-4:59 3,397 12.71%
5:00-5:59 2,232 8.35%
6:00-6:59 3,433 12.84%
7:00-7:59 4,373 16.36%
8:00-8:59 2,749 10.28%
9:00-9:59 2,263 8.47%
10:00-10:59 2,554 9.56%
11:00+ 1,335 4.99%

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
  Black Widow Total   21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 6 72 10,311 1,811 526 17.56%
    Phoenix 7 59 8,999 1,848 320 20.54%
    Raleigh 8 37 4,098 1,713 380 41.80%
  Eternals Total   21 168 23,408 5,372 1,226 22.95%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
    Phoenix 7 51 7,193 1,349 262 18.75%
    Raleigh 8 40 4,505 1,327 332 29.46%
  Shang-Chi Total   21 151 20,317 4,099 1,087 20.18%
T-11 Spider-Man Jacksonville 7 154 22,299 5,630 181 25.25%
    Phoenix 6 128 18,728 7,680 176 41.01%
    Raleigh 8 76 8,925 5,151 120 57.71%
  Spider-Man Total   21 358 49,952 18,461 477 36.96%

 

Sales were steady at +1 to previous day.  One new show added, and a few switched from 3D to standard.

 

T-11 increase % comps

 

Spider - 2.65%

BW - 4.65%

SC - 6.19%

Venom 2 - 7.78%

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $247,782 (13.42 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

Movie Mat Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man N 16,158 87.53% $222,562.85 13.77
  Y 2,303 12.47% $25,220.02 10.95
Grand Total   18,461 100.00% $247,782.87 13.42

 

Movie Format Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man PLF 6,991 37.87% $113,157.50 16.19
  Standard 11,470 62.13% $134,625.37 11.74
Grand Total   18,461 100.00% $247,782.87 13.42
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14 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $247,782 (13.42 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Let's say +/-8 % to the numbers to account for regional flux, means previews are already sitting at roughly $32-37M domestically. 

 

Edited by Multiverse of XXR
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13 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Let's say +/-8 % to the numbers to account for regional flux, means previews are already sitting at roughly $32-37M domestically. 

 

That's a lot higher than what I have currently. ~$23M.

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