The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That's a lot higher than what I have currently. ~$23M.

 

Perhaps @katnisscinnaplex final numbers aren't a "true" final but just before previews start? Because there's no way they'd be running hot by 50%. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Perhaps @katnisscinnaplex final numbers aren't a "true" final but just before previews start? Because there's no way they'd be running hot by 50%. 

Yeah that's probably the case but then @Porthos comps are right around $24M. Probably gotta do with fact that Sacramento was overindexing throughout year, while ratio getting a bit normal with NWH. 

[filmlover]

Was just reminded that The King's Man is having sneaks this Thursday as part of the Game Awards (wherever it's being shown). So with the exception of The Matrix 4 every single major Christmas week release is having early screenings since American Underdog is being shown on the 17th and 18th and A Journal for Jordan had some last night.

[katnisscinnaplex]

48 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Perhaps @katnisscinnaplex final numbers aren't a "true" final but just before previews start? Because there's no way they'd be running hot by 50%. 

Yeah, sorry, final as in 1hr before shows start

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/3/2021 at 2:29 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-13	Spider-Man	PLF	38	123	6,964	8,388	83.02%	$14.45	$100,597.04
		Standard	78	154	7,231	10,917	66.24%	$10.98	$79,417.94
	Spider-Man Total		116	277	14,195	19,305	73.53%	$12.68	$180,014.98
T-14	Spidey (Fri)	PLF	56	258	6,640	12,379	53.64%	$14.35	$95,294.87
		Standard	84	203	4,611	13,046	35.34%	$10.68	$49,246.11
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	461	11,251	25,425	44.25%	$12.85	$144,540.98

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Getting this out a little later today, but preview and Friday sales are both better than yesterday's update.  Heading into a meeting so no time for more.

 

 

Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
Spider-Man	N	85	158	10,903	14,045	77.63%	$13.47	$146,831.49
	Y	31	119	3,292	5,260	62.59%	$10.08	$33,183.49
Spider-Man Total		116	277	14,195	19,305	73.53%	$12.68	$180,014.98
Spidey (Fri)	N	71	222	8,162	13,419	60.82%	$13.69	$111,727.33
	Y	69	239	3,089	12,006	25.73%	$10.62	$32,813.65
Spidey (Fri) Total		140	461	11,251	25,425	44.25%	$12.85	$144,540.98

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Had some issues with Fandango yesterday and wasn't able to pull numbers.  New sales below are two days of sales.  I may wait until I see new shows being added before my next update.

 

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales*	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-11	Spider-Man	PLF	38	60	7,024	8,388	83.74%	$14.43	$101,381.38
		Standard	78	206	7,437	10,917	68.12%	$10.96	$81,521.77
	Spider-Man Total		116	266	14,461	19,305	74.91%	$12.65	$182,903.15
T-12	Spidey (Fri)	PLF	56	287	6,927	12,379	55.96%	$14.29	$98,975.95
		Standard	84	296	4,907	13,046	37.61%	$10.62	$52,119.56
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	583	11,834	25,425	46.54%	$12.77	$151,095.51

 

Matinee splits

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-11	Spider-Man	N	85	137	11,040	14,045	78.60%	$13.45	$148,495.01
		Y	31	129	3,421	5,260	65.04%	$10.06	$34,408.14
	Spider-Man Total		116	266	14,461	19,305	74.91%	$12.65	$182,903.15
T-12	Spidey (Fri)	N	71	245	8,407	13,419	62.65%	$13.66	$114,823.23
		Y	69	338	3,427	12,006	28.54%	$10.58	$36,272.28
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	583	11,834	25,425	46.54%	$12.77	$151,095.51

[TwoMisfits]

14 hours ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

 

Might not flop with that OW, but it'll need strong holiday legs. The reported budget is $100M so we'd need at least 6-7x off a weekend like that and decent OS numbers. Doable but not a given. 

 

 

If it only opens to $10-15M, it's gonna get lost in the holiday wash b/c that just won't be high enough to keep most small and midsize places...so, you'd be looking at 4-5x, not 6-7x...

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, Cap said:

 

I imagine like so 

 

More like this:

 

 

but, sure, close enuf. 👍

 

[Cap]

34 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

More like this:

 

 

but, sure, close enuf. 👍

 

OLOLOLOLLL

 

I was looking for that gif and couldn’t find it!!! 

 

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Cap said:

OLOLOLOLLL

 

I was looking for that gif and couldn’t find it!!! 

 

 

 

Took me minutes, minutes I say! 

 

(seriously, took me something like six or seven searches before I finally found it )

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Had some issues with Fandango yesterday and wasn't able to pull numbers.  New sales below are two days of sales.  I may wait until I see new shows being added before my next update.

 

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales*	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-11	Spider-Man	PLF	38	60	7,024	8,388	83.74%	$14.43	$101,381.38
		Standard	78	206	7,437	10,917	68.12%	$10.96	$81,521.77
	Spider-Man Total		116	266	14,461	19,305	74.91%	$12.65	$182,903.15
T-12	Spidey (Fri)	PLF	56	287	6,927	12,379	55.96%	$14.29	$98,975.95
		Standard	84	296	4,907	13,046	37.61%	$10.62	$52,119.56
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	583	11,834	25,425	46.54%	$12.77	$151,095.51

 

Matinee splits

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-11	Spider-Man	N	85	137	11,040	14,045	78.60%	$13.45	$148,495.01
		Y	31	129	3,421	5,260	65.04%	$10.06	$34,408.14
	Spider-Man Total		116	266	14,461	19,305	74.91%	$12.65	$182,903.15
T-12	Spidey (Fri)	N	71	245	8,407	13,419	62.65%	$13.66	$114,823.23
		Y	69	338	3,427	12,006	28.54%	$10.58	$36,272.28
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	583	11,834	25,425	46.54%	$12.77	$151,095.51

 

What's current count for Spiderman overall and split between major chains. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

What's current count for Spiderman overall and split between major chains. 

Showtimes?  No change from yesterday in my sample.  26,730 shows in 2,849 theaters (US)

 

A - 7,757 (587)

C - 5,516 (311)

R - 4,101 (440)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2189

3431

63.80%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1982

4232

46.83%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12672	434	32711	38.74%	15	212

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 97

 

AMCs sold	6877
Cinemarks sold	2489
Regals sold	2090
Harkins sold	1216

 

Eternals final comp: 27.04M

Shang-Chi final comp: 27.64M

Black Widow final comp: 26.29M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 30.60M

 

Adjusted TRoS T-12 comp: 46.38M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-12: +434, +3.55%

9.64x Shang-Chi T-12 (+45, +6.45%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-12: +333, +3.15%

TRoS T-12 (+78, +0.836%)

 

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2248

3431

65.52%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2037

4232

48.13%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
13084	412	32711	40.00%	15	212

 

AMCs sold	7061
Cinemarks sold	2562
Regals sold	2192
Harkins sold	1269

 

Eternals final comp: 27.92M

Shang-Chi final comp: 28.54M

Black Widow final comp: 27.15M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 31.47M

 

Adjusted TRoS T-11 comp: 47.00M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

Spoiler

NWH T-11: +412, +3.25%

6.75x Shang-Chi T-11 (+61, +8.21%)

5.72x Black Widow T-11 (+72, +4.06%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-11: +311, +2.77%

2.21x TRoS T-11 (+141, +1.50%)

Barely a drop from yesterday, pretty solid

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-12 days Thursday(154 showings): 17521(+389)/37252(+861) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 27.14M

Black Widow final comp: 27.94M

 

T-13 days Friday(181 showings): 12626(+471)/50009(+353) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 29.09M

Black Widow final comp: 35.76M

 

T-14 days Saturday(178 showings): 6412(+431)/47880(+227) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 18.02M

 

T-15 days Sunday(153 showings): 1380(+172)/46322 in 15 theaters

 

No daily pace comparisons today. I could do a two day pace comparison of BW, but I'm feeling lazy

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-11 days Thursday(157 showings): 17973(+452, +2.58%)/37252(+452) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 27.84M

Black Widow final comp: 28.66M

 

Daily pace comparison: 7.66x Black Widow T-11 (+59, +2.67%)

 

T-12 days Friday(181 showings): 12987(+361, +2.86%)/50009 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 29.93M

Black Widow final comp: 36.78M

 

Daily pace comparison: 5.23x Black Widow T-12 (+69, +4.76%)

 

T-13 days Saturday(179 showings): 6892(+480)/47880(+294) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 19.37M

 

T-14 days Sunday(153 showings): 1610(+230)/46322 in 15 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-12 days Thursday(260 showings): 24490(+482)/33921

 

Eternals final comp: 23.16M

 

T-13 days Friday(317 showings): 20900(+936)/42409(+440)

 

Eternals final comp: 34.02M

 

T-14 days Saturday(354 showings): 19555(+1197)/47023(+589)

 

Eternals final comp: 31.62M

 

T-15 days Sunday(295 showings): 9451(+810)/39325(+338)

 

There were actually no showings that got downsized, just some showings not returning data yesterday at one theater. So the FSS daily increases are inflated. But I won't worry about fixing them since I'm just using final comps, and I'll skip the daily pace comparison.

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-11 days Thursday(260 showings): 24906(+416)/33921

 

Eternals final comp: 23.56M

 

T-12 days Friday(317 showings): 21519(+619)/42409

 

Eternals final comp: 35.03M

 

T-13 days Saturday(354 showings): 20469(+914)/47023

 

Eternals final comp: 33.09M

 

T-14 days Sunday(295 showings): 10163(+712)/39325

[Legion Again]

Don’t have a shift tonight, planning to finally do some serious fun with numbers BUT — as we near the bottom of the “U” here, it is abundantly clear that the extra showings/screen vs endgame is heavily affecting the Th and fri pace on that comp, the short ps run vs 50 day ps run is screwing with the pace vs TROS, and everything else we’ve got to work with is on a different order of magnitude. So I’m not really planning to read much into whatever results I get, just more get the legwork out of the way.

[Landon1195]

What's your prediction for the opening weekend so far? I'm going $220M.

[XXR vs XXR]

44 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Barely a drop from yesterday, pretty solid

 

Seems like its reached a fairly stable rate. Maybe 5-6x BW from here out? 

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

What's your prediction for the opening weekend so far? I'm going $220M.

 

Not sure, but I'll go with....

Previews = $44-50m
Friday = Previews + 45%
Saturday = Friday + 10%

Sunday = Saturday - 20% 

 

So, whatever that equals from here. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Not sure, but I'll go with....

Previews = $44-50m
Friday = Previews + 45%
Saturday = Friday + 10%

Sunday = Saturday - 20% 

 

So, whatever that equals from here. 

260-270m seems about right. I was leaning 275 personally but obviously that's the target

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Not sure, but I'll go with....

Previews = $44-50m
Friday = Previews + 45%
Saturday = Friday + 10%

Sunday = Saturday - 20% 

 

So, whatever that equals from here. 

This is a 3x true IM, 5.32 IM, 234-266