The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

260-270m seems about right. I was leaning 275 personally but obviously that's the target

 

I hope you're right my friend. At this point I can see anything from....

 

Worst Case (IMO)
Previews = $39M
Friday = Previews + 30%
Saturday = Friday + 5%
Sunday = Saturday - 30% 
$180M 


Best Case (IMO)
Previews = $55M 
Friday = Previews + 60% 
Saturday = Friday + 15%
Sunday = Saturday - 15%
$330M 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

This is a 3x true IM, 5.32 IM, 234-266

 

Yep this looks about right as of now. This time next week maybe it'll be different. I'm mainly just hoping it takes the December OW record. Anything beyond that is gravy. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Spielberg's latest openings for dramas (wide) (excluding Ready Player One)

 

2017: The Post (Jan)- 19.3m

2015: Bridge of Spies (Oct)- 15.3m

2012: Lincoln (Nov)- 21m

 

War Horse opened Christmas 2011. 7.5m on that day.

 

Recent Dec openings:

Cats- 6.6m

The Mule- 17.5m

Mary Poppins Returns- 23.5

Greatest Showman- 8.8m

 

Hoping West Side Story can near 20m but unfortunately going for 10-15m with hope for legs

Edited December 6, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Spielberg's latest openings for dramas (wide) (excluding Ready Player One)

 

2017: The Post (Jan)- 19.3m

2015: Bridge of Spies (Oct)- 15.3m

2012: Lincoln (Nov)- 21m

 

War Horse opened Christmas 2011. 7.5m on that day.

 

Recent Dec openings:

Cats- 6.6m

The Mule- 17.5m

Mary Poppins Returns- 23.5

Greatest Showman- 8.8m

 

Hoping West Side Story can near 20m but unfortunately going for 10-15m with hope for legs

MTC2 suggests 20m is possible if MTC1 is very good and walkups are very good. Not sure about walkups but we will see. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Menor said:

MTC2 suggests 20m is possible if MTC1 is very good and walkups are very good. Not sure about walkups but we will see. 

20m is what I  normally would have predicted without COVID context so hopefully. The sales still don't remain very promising here. At least PLF can boost the sales

[Eric Atreides]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

MTC2 suggests 20m is possible if MTC1 is very good and walkups are very good. Not sure about walkups but we will see. 

I would assume MTC1 would be doing better. MTC2 is less coastal IIRC, and those are the places where WSS would likely be performing the best.

[XXR vs XXR]

@keysersoze123 Any luck or definitive results on the MTC1 data for NWH?

 

[Inceptionzq]

59 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Seems like its reached a fairly stable rate. Maybe 5-6x BW from here out? 

Nah 5x BW from here would give a 75M comp lol. It’s not gonna ramp up as much as BW percentage wise, so like 2-3x for the rest of the run

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

5x BW from here would give a 75M comp

@Inceptionzq is calling for $75M previews!! 

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

@Inceptionzq is calling for $75M previews!! 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Showtimes?  No change from yesterday in my sample.  26,730 shows in 2,849 theaters (US)

 

A - 7,757 (587)

C - 5,516 (311)

R - 4,101 (440)

Huh. R having less shows than C. That's no good.

[XXR vs XXR]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Between your promise of $400m OW and his promise of $75m previews, we surely can't miss the $1B Dom that @Product Driven Legion promised me!

#NWH2TheMoon

[keysersoze123]

33 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

@keysersoze123 Any luck or definitive results on the MTC1 data for NWH?

 

Unfortunately the run I was doing on Friday had a bug and so had to abort. Yesterday it was not working at all. Today I was able to start but its so slow that rate is like 4 shows per minute. At this rate it will take day and half for the run to finish. I have partial data for about third of the shows but I am scared to share. you will go KRAY for sure(not that you are not already there).  

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Showtimes?  No change from yesterday in my sample.  26,730 shows in 2,849 theaters (US)

 

A - 7,757 (587)

C - 5,516 (311)

R - 4,101 (440)

Thank you. You rock as usual. This data is essential for extrapolation. 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I have partial data for about third of the shows but I am scared to share. you will go KRAY for sure(not that you are not already there).

  

 

[keysersoze123]

Here you go

 

NWH MTC1 Previews - 288101/444978 4390129.45 2205 shows (303 Theaters)

 

I think $ value is bit high as there will be kids/senior tickets sold as well. But even if you discount 10% these numbers are crazy for 1/3rd of shows. 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Here you go

 

NWH MTC1 Previews - 288101/444978 4390129.45 2205 shows (303 Theaters)

 

I think $ value is bit high as there will be kids/senior tickets sold as well. But even if you discount 10% these numbers are crazy for 1/3rd of shows. 

 

Damn. So does this indicate there would be about 770-850k MTC1 tickets sold at this point? Or does your program work in a way that higher count shows or areas would get precedent? Just trying to get a feel for what the total would be. 

[Legion Again]

32 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

NWH2TheMoon

OMG, I missed Sony revealing that this would be another part 1 part 2 deal    
 

NWH2 won’t have omicron issues, so we should beat avatar for sure  

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Damn. So does this indicate there would be about 770-850k MTC1 tickets sold at this point? Or does your program work in a way that higher count shows or areas would get precedent? Just trying to get a feel for what the total would be. 

it depends on what has been done and what is pending. Big market plexes tend to sell tons of tickets per show and overall. I do see data from some uber big ones (Empire 25, Lincoln, Metreon, Universal, Disney etc). So it may not be linear but even if it trends down it should hit 700K at this point. 

 

But point to note is many shows are sold out or almost sold out(just seats for handicapped etc). So potential for growth during primetime is very limited at this point. So most of the growth needs to happen before prime time( 3-6PM non PLF) and post prime time(regular shows after 10 PM and PLF beyond midnight). Also since this is just one time snapshot and so I have no idea how good the pace is. 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it depends on what has been done and what is pending. Big market plexes tend to sell tons of tickets per show and overall. I do see data from some uber big ones (Empire 25, Lincoln, Metreon, Universal, Disney etc). So it may not be linear but even if it trends down it should hit 700K at this point. 

 

But point to note is many shows are sold out or almost sold out(just seats for handicapped etc). So potential for growth during primetime is very limited at this point. So most of the growth needs to happen before prime time( 3-6PM non PLF) and post prime time(regular shows after 10 PM and PLF beyond midnight). Also since this is just one time snapshot and so I have no idea how good the pace is. 

 

Understood. Just to add to my data, do you have TROS final previews at MTC1 and maybe something like Venom 2, Eternals or Shang Chi?