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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Playing in 2,800 North American theaters, “West Side Story” is tracking to generate $10 million to $15 million in its opening weekend. Some box office prognosticators believe ticket sales could reach $20 million, but others have cautioned that number may not be realistic for an adult-driven musical romance drama that’s arriving in a still-impaired moviegoing market. The spreading omicron variant could be a drag on ticket sales, too.

 

Compared to other potential Oscar players, which have been struggling at the box office, a double digit start wouldn’t be a terrible result. Advanced ticket sales for “West Side Story” have been on par with MGM’s star-studded crime drama “House of Gucci,” which opened to $14 million around Thanksgiving and has continued to entice audiences. However, anything below $15 million would be a middling tally for a film of “West Side Story’s” scope. The problem is the Disney and 20th Century Studio’s revival cost $100 million, not including the millions spent to promote the film, which has been pushed back several times due to COVID-19.

 

'West Side Story' Box Office Opening Weekend May Break Musical Curse - Variety

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On 12/7/2021 at 3:53 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2344 3739 62.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2123 4232 50.17%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
13751 348 33019 41.65% 15 215

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 308

 

AMCs sold 7365
Cinemarks sold 2670
Regals sold 2358
Harkins sold 1358

 

Eternals final comp: 29.34M

Shang-Chi final comp: 29.99M

Black Widow final comp: 28.53M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 32.88M

 

Adjusted TRoS T-9 comp: 47.72M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2380 3795 62.71%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2165 4232 51.16%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
14139 388 34065 41.51% 15 220

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 1046

 

AMCs sold 7524
Cinemarks sold 2750
Regals sold 2470
Harkins sold 1395

 

Eternals final comp: 30.17M

Shang-Chi final comp: 30.84M

Black Widow final comp: 29.34M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 33.72M

 

Adjusted TRoS T-8 comp: 47.89M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

Spoiler

NWH T-8: +388, +2.82%

5.88x Eternals T-8 (+66, +3.99%)

3.26x Shang-Chi T-8 (+119, +11.90%)

2.73x Black Widow T-8 (+142, +6.94%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-8: +301, +2.57%

1.39x TRoS T-8 (+216, +2.20%)

 

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On 12/7/2021 at 4:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-9 days Thursday(175 showings): 19093(+540)/40254(+1915) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 29.57M

Black Widow final comp: 30.44M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-10 days Friday(184 showings): 14161(+573)/51173(+1164) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 32.63M

Black Widow final comp: 40.10M

 

Daily pace comparison: 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-11 days Saturday(180 showings): 7978(+491)/48540(+366) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 22.43M

 

T-12 days Sunday(153 showings): 1867(+101)/46322 in 15 theaters

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday(182 showings): 19707(+614)/41341(+1087) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 30.53M

Black Widow final comp: 31.42M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH T-8: +614, +3.22%

3.59x NTTD T-8 (+171, +18.06%)

3.49x Black Widow T-8 (+176, +7.04%)

 

T-9 days Friday(184 showings): 14671(+510)/51173 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 33.81M

Black Widow final comp: 41.55M

 

Daily pace comparison: 

Spoiler

NWH T-9: +510, +3.60%

4.36x NTTD T-9 (+117, +10.22%)

2.82x Black Widow T-9 (+181, +10.11%)

 

T-10 days Saturday(193 showings): 8417(+439)/50454(+1914) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 23.66M

 

T-11 days Sunday(153 showings): 1992(+125)/46322 in 15 theaters

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On 12/7/2021 at 4:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-9 days Thursday(266 showings): 25599(+399, +1.58%)/34333(+412)

 

Eternals final comp: 24.21M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.77x Eternals T-9 (+144, +2.90%)

 

T-10 days Friday(319 showings): 22824(+563, +2.53%)/42552(+42)

 

Eternals final comp: 37.15M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.46x Eternals T-10 (+229, +5.20%)

 

T-11 days Saturday(354 showings): 22074(+822, +3.87%)/47023

 

Eternals final comp: 35.69M

 

Daily pace comparison: 3.88x Eternals T-11 (+212, +4.72%)

 

T-12 days Sunday(295 showings): 11368(+487, +4.48%)/39325

 

Daily pace comparison: 4.02x Eternals T-12 (+121, +4.61%)

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-8 days Thursday(266 showings): 26035(+436, +1.70%)/34333

 

Eternals final comp: 24.62M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.15x Eternals T-8 (+203, +3.97%)

 

T-9 days Friday(319 showings): 23373(+549, +2.41%)/42552

 

Eternals final comp: 38.04M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.69x Eternals T-9 (+204, +4.40%)

 

T-10 days Saturday(355 showings): 22795(+721, +3.27%)/47103(+80)

 

Eternals final comp: 36.85M

 

Daily pace comparison: 3.70x Eternals T-10 (+195, +4.15%)

 

T-11 days Sunday(295 showings): 11908(+540, +4.75%)/39325

 

Daily pace comparison: 4.50x Eternals T-11 (+120, +4.37%)

 

I'm short on time so I'm gonna skip the Matrix update

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For anyone curious about WSS up north snapshot for Thursday:

 

West Side Story

Greater Toronto Area, Ontario

Thur Dec 9 taken wed dec 8

 

22 theatres

52 shows


Total sold 507

Total remaining 14048

Total seats 14555

Percentage 3.48

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Alpha - 12/8/21

Theaters Shows Sold Total %
432 7,302 578,670 1,186,185

48.78%

 

I'll see if I can get more than the bare-bones info moving forward.

Edited by ZackM
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On 12/8/2021 at 12:02 AM, Eric Feels Pretty said:

West Side Story Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 33 194 5500 3.53%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 525

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

Comp

1.148x of Dear Evan Hansen T-2 and Counting (918K)

West Side Story Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 33 264 5500 4.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp

0.270x of In the Heights' Thu+Fri T-1 (1.35M)

1.257x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 and Counting (1.01M)

0.721x of House of Gucci T-1 and Counting (938K)

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On 12/8/2021 at 12:11 AM, Eric Feels Pretty said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 6 205 17,443 37,701 46.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 408

 

Comp

2.297x of Black Widow's Final Count (30.32M)

3.330x of Venom 2's Final Count (38.63M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.268x of Star Wars: TROS T-9 (50.71M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 6 205 17,844 37,701 47.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 401

 

Comp

2.350x of Black Widow's Final Count (31.02M)

3.407x of Venom 2's Final Count (39.52M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.266x of Star Wars: TROS T-8 (50.66M)

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On 12/8/2021 at 12:21 AM, Eric Feels Pretty said:

The Matrix: Resurrections Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 55 729 9574 7.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 108

 

Comp

0.875x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-15 (8.49M)

2.928x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (12M)

1.266x of Dune T-15 (6.45M)

The Matrix: Resurrections Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 55 809 9574 8.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 80

 

Comp

0.907x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-14 (8.8M)

3.076x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (12.61M)

1.268x of Dune T-14 (6.47M)

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On 12/8/2021 at 12:29 AM, Eric Feels Pretty said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 59 1559 10681 14.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 18

 

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 151

 

Comp (WITHOUT Early Access)

8.389x of Jungle Cruise T-15 (22.65M)

 

I felt it was best to use non-EA shows, as that amounted to about 1,408 seats sold and a gross of...1.5M. Yeah, that's just too out of whack here. And yeah, that Jungle Cruise comp isn't good right now, but things will go down to Earth pretty quickly. And since I can't use Space Jam due to demographic issues, this is all I got at this point in time. What are you gonna do?

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 59 1586 10681 14.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 178

 

Comp (WITHOUT Early Access)

4.684x of Jungle Cruise T-14 (12.65M)

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West Side Story (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
    IMAX showings: 4/776
        5:00 P.M.: 2/388
        8:45 P.M.: 2/388
    2D showings: 15/282
        6:00 P.M.: 15/141
        9:45 P.M.: 0/141
    Total Sold: 19/1,058 (1.8% sold)

 

Comps:
Dear Evan Hansen: $490k
House of Gucci: $668k
Average: $579k

 

    Friday:
    IMAX showings: 52/1,552
        11:00 A.M.: 14/388
        2:55 P.M.: 21/388
        6:45 P.M.: 17/388
        10:30 P.M.: 0/388
    2D showings: 45/714
        12:55 P.M.: 13/238
        4:50 P.M.: 14/238
        8:40 P.M.: 18/238
    Total Sold: 97/2,266 (4.28% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 116/3,324 (3.49% sold)

 

Comps:
Dear Evan Hansen: $4.59 mil
House of Gucci: $8.27 mil
Average: $6.43 mil

 

Not too many great comps to go off for this one. Thursday previews are a tad concerning, especially the DEH comp. But then again, that film was definitely aimed towards a much younger demographic who would be more likely to go to late night showings. Again, not the greatest comp, but it's really the only one of its genre that I could pull from (In The Heights came out a month before I started doing Wednesday night outlook posts, so that's an unfortunate lost comp that could've been useful here).

 

Still, the Friday numbers look promising enough. Man do I wish had time to drive an hour to go see this in IMAX. 

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