The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Eric Feels Pretty said:

There weren't any Early Access shows. The closest thing was a free IMAX event a la Shang-Chi

Oh those were free. I didn't pay detailed attention, thought they were paid early access.

[XXR vs XXR]

Hmm, so a sub $10M OW is possible (if not likely) for WSS.

 

It probably won’t even cross $40M with all of the competition coming for theater space.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/9/2021 at 10:03 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-7	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	158	22,970	6,326	156	27.54%
		Phoenix	7	165	21,355	8,660	271	40.55%
		Raleigh	8	92	10,597	5,696	167	53.75%
	Spider-Man Total		22	415	54,922	20,682	594	37.66%

 

Added a few more shows yesterday.  Sales are down a little, but still well above the valley it hit earlier in the week.  

 

T-7 increase % comps

 

Spider - 2.96%

BW - 8.21%

SC - 7.54%

Eternals - 7.84%

Venom 2 - 8.88%

 

Quick check-in on sales comps...

 

BW  - 7.3x (96.37m)

SC -  17.7x (155.69m)

Eternals - 9.96x (94.64m)

Venom 2 - 24.1x (279.6m)

 

Obviously the growth rate will remain much much lower than all of these, but this gives you an idea just how far ahead it is with just a week left.  Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 2.81x (37.08m)

SC -  5.046x (44.4m)

Eternals - 3.85x (36.57m)

 

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $275,298 (13.31 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	18,027	87.16%	$246,314.57	13.66
	Y	2,655	12.84%	$28,984.00	10.92

 

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	7,451	36.03%	$120,470.19	16.17
	Standard	13,231	63.97%	$154,828.38	11.70

 

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	12,332	59.63%	$159,060.23	12.90
	Cinemark	5,292	25.59%	$76,114.19	14.38
	CMX	24	0.12%	$359.76	14.99
	Regal	2,675	12.93%	$35,915.94	13.43
	RoadHouse	172	0.83%	$1,838.20	10.69
	Sun-Ray	187	0.90%	$2,010.25	10.75

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-6	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	158	22,970	6,592	266	28.70%
		Phoenix	7	162	21,103	8,984	324	42.57%
		Raleigh	8	94	10,736	5,927	231	55.21%
	Spider-Man Total		22	414	54,809	21,503	821	39.23%

 

Net 1 less show than yesterday;  three of the new shows in the last update have been removed and a couple were added in other theaters.  Biggest sales day since last Friday's update, although I got started late today.  That's normal for Friday updates though

 

T-6 increase % comps

 

Spider - 3.97%

BW - 6.53%

SC - 11.12%

Eternals - 6.41%

Venom 2 - 11.89%

 

Quick check-in on sales comps...

 

BW  - 7.12x (94.05m)

SC -  16.55x (145.67m)

Eternals - 9.73x (92.47m)

Venom 2 - 22.4x (259.83m)

 

Obviously the growth rate will remain much much lower than all of these, but this gives you an idea just how far ahead it is with just a week left.  Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 2.92x (38.55m)

SC -  5.246x (46.16m)

Eternals - 4x (38.03m)

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $285,680 (13.29 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	18,734	87.12%	$255,565.75	13.64
	Y	2,769	12.88%	$30,115.02	10.88

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	7,621	35.44%	$123,292.41	16.18
	Standard	13,882	64.56%	$162,388.36	11.70

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	12,742	59.26%	$163,980.17	12.87
	Cinemark	5,460	25.39%	$78,519.48	14.38
	CMX	28	0.13%	$419.72	14.99
	Regal	2,875	13.37%	$38,504.50	13.39
	RoadHouse	201	0.93%	$2,139.15	10.64
	Sun-Ray	197	0.92%	$2,117.75	10.75

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Obviously the growth rate will remain much much lower than all of these, but this gives you an idea just how far ahead it is with just a week left.  Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 2.92x (38.55m)

SC -  5.246x (46.16m)

Eternals - 4x (38.03m)

Just trying to extrapolate your final comps, I’m thinking these will all go up $15-17M by your T-1HR mark.

[Tinalera]

Ha.....hahah.....ahahha.....

 

Spiderman No Way Home

Greater Toronto Area, Ontario

Dec 16 (Taken Dec 10)

 

25 theatres

281 shows

 

Total Sold 30779 (dec 6 27378)

Total Remaining 42639 (Dec 6 24583)

Total Seats 73418(previous 51961)

Percentage 41.92

 

So....total seats increased from 51 to 73 thousand, so yea that was a fun surprise thank you very much Cineplex. Can't wait till next wed when they do their final seat add for opening weekend....boy oh boy....

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

Just trying to extrapolate your final comps, I’m thinking these will all go up $15-17M by your T-1HR mark.

 

I ran a forecast against each of the movies based on growth rate.  Here's where they are currently headed based on those forecasts:

 

BW - 28,330

SC - 27,040

Eternals - 19,685 😂

 

Evidently it picked up an inverse relationship between Spider-Man and Eternals over the past few days.  Here's where the other two would comp out to in gross:

 

BW - 3.85x (50.8m)

SC - 6.6x (58.05m)

 

I'll check this again in a couple days to see if they start to converge.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What is the most ticket sold theater so far?

In India I have a theater selling 7k tixs for opening day so far on 20 shows. May get may be 6 more shows eventually for OD of 9-9.5k tixs.

Currently 24 shows and 9297 sold so far. Can add 7 shows more at max, if it did will be recording 12.5k final admits. There are few films with 30 shows, this is getting one extra show in large screen.

 

Gross record is very likely.

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

Hmm, so a sub $10M OW is possible (if not likely) for WSS.

 

It probably won’t even cross $40M with all of the competition coming for theater space.

 

Theaters had to guarantee a run though the holiday to play it.  It won't lose any screens (except possibly a few exceptions) until January 7th.  

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Theaters had to guarantee a run though the holiday to play it.

 

Does that come with a minimum amount of shows guaranteed, or if a theater just throws up 1-2 a day does that suffice the guarantee?

 

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Does that come with a minimum amount of shows guaranteed, or if a theater just throws up 1-2 a day does that suffice the guarantee?

 

 

Yes.  That means it has to play a clean and full schedule.  Theaters can't reduce show counts without threat of being caught by Disney and having the entire run charged up to 70% of the box office.  

[anti-Pedantic]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Currently 24 shows and 9297 sold so far. Can add 7 shows more at max, if it did will be recording 12.5k final admits. There are few films with 30 shows, this is getting one extra show in large screen.

 

Gross record is very likely.

It's Prasad cinemas in Hyderabad or Ariesplex of Trivandram?

[cannastop]

edit: wrong thrread

Edited December 10, 2021 by cannastop

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well that sucks, especially for its budget. Poor West Side Story

 

I guess it makes me want to see it even more because it's going to be out of theaters relatively quickly.

 

Disney made anyone that took it commit to playing through the holiday.  

[cannastop]

edit: wrong thread

Edited December 10, 2021 by cannastop

[EmpireCity]

Morbius tickets go on sale Jan. 1st.  

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Morbius tickets go on sale Jan. 1st.  

I’m curious what this will do. How well can the marketing tie it to Spider-Man?

 

Right now I’m leaning towards something in the $40-45M opening range.

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

I’m curious what this will do. How well can the marketing tie it to Spider-Man?

 

Right now I’m leaning towards something in the $40-45M opening range.

 

I think it will go $60m+

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

I’m curious what this will do. How well can the marketing tie it to Spider-Man?

 

Right now I’m leaning towards something in the $40-45M opening range.

 

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

I think it will go $60m+

 

Wait, there's another, different movie named Morbius that is opening this high??

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I think it will go $60m+

Certainly feasible. I just don’t have a lot of faith in Sony, and this is coming out in January. Obviously WOM will matter a lot to a film like this.

[Maggie]

Morbius 60M total will be great