The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What a meant was that smaller theaters (like 10 screen theaters) are likely gonna take a screen reduction for it the following week. Say, a 10 screen theater could show Star Wars on 5 screens the first weekend and show it on 2 the following due to the new releases coming in. Doesn't matter as long as it keeps that biggest auditorium for at least 4 weeks (a lot of smaller theaters aren't booking the film due to these terms, though).

4

 

Um, if you are a theatre, TLJ is going to be the biggest movie at your theatre in at least two years and likely to get a lot of business until NYD?

 

Most likely what would happen it would go down to 3-4 screen then 2 because that would be one really stupid theatre. 

 

It would make zero sense from a business point of view as Star Wars would make far more money than all of the new releases even in its 2nd and third weekend handily.

 

As I said, it is the older films such as the November releases that would be out of theatres. 

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

Um, if you are a theatre, TLJ is going to be the biggest movie at your theatre in at least two years and likely to get a lot of business until NYD?

 

Most likely what would happen it would go down to 3-4 screen then 2 because that would be one really stupid theatre. 

 

It would make zero sense from a business point of view as Star Wars would make far more money than all of the new releases even in its 2nd and third weekend handily.

 

As I said, it is the older films such as the November releases that would be out of theatres. 

 

 

I'm talking about smaller theaters that can't manage to keep The Last Jedi on all of its screens the following week because of so many movies opening that, yes, studios are contracted to show. This isn't rocket science I'm talking about. But I would expect no less from the person who claims nobody goes to the movies anymore unless it's for blockbusters (which last weekend proved to be quite the contrary).

[TwoMisfits]

On 11/7/2017 at 11:05 AM, TwoMisfits said:

1st local is up

 

NEW

Daddy's Home (1) (midsize)

Murder on the Orient Express (1) (biggest)

(Edited) C/O Surya (1)

 

Returning

Thor (3 - but instead of 2 biggest and 1 midsize, it's now 1 biggest, 1 midsize, and 1 smallest for 3d)

Ittefaq (1)

Bad Moms (1)

Jigsaw (1/2) / HDD (1/2)

Boo (4/5) / PSV GARUDA VEGA (1/5)

 

Three Two screens not set - I imagine they are scouring limited and foreign films and/or watching presales for the new movies before deciding where to go...I'm betting it will be 3 foreign films, since this theater seems to love to now book them (and they sell well there)...

 

Gone

Geostorm

Surburbicon

TYFYS

Blade Runner

Secret Superstar

The other foreign films 

1st local is up:)...and it FINALLY booked The Star! (Yes, every Cinemark around me did not have any presales for this movie til this morning, so I was worried the chain wasn't getting it...but it's here.  So, 3000 screens likely, since Regal and AMC booked it:)...Anyway here's the scoop...

 

NEW

JL (3 screens - 1 3d, 2 2d - 1 showing total more than Thor OW original set, but Thor got a LOT of 10pm extra showings - will see if JL does)

The Star (1)

Wonder (1)

EDIT: 3 foreign films sharing 1.75 screens 

 

Returning (EVERY OCT MOVIE GONE)

Thor (2 2d + 1 single 3d showing - only lost 1 screen which is good:)

Bad Moms (1)

Daddy's Home (1)

MOE (1)

 

Total screens used all 12:)...

 

GONE

Boo

Jigsaw

Last week's foreign films

 

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Rumpot]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

1st local is up:)...and it FINALLY booked The Star! (Yes, every Cinemark around me did not have any presales for this movie til this morning, so I was worried the chain wasn't getting it...but it's here.  So, 3000 screens likely, since Regal and AMC booked it:)...Anyway here's the scoop...

 

NEW

JL (3 screens - 1 3d, 2 2d - 1 showing total more than Thor OW original set, but Thor got a LOT of 10pm extra showings - will see if JL does)

The Star (1)

Wonder (1)

 

Returning (EVERY OCT MOVIE GONE)

Thor (2 2d + 1 single 3d showing - only lost 1 screen which is good:)

Bad Moms (1)

Daddy's Home (1)

MOE (1)

 

Total screens used so far 10.25 - I expect either a foreign film or 2 to grab the extra spots (or some more JL) - probably depends how the bookings go...

 

GONE

Boo

Jigsaw

Last week's foreign films

 

 

That Cinemark news likely explains why Star Wars presales popped yesterday and it got above 8% on MT.  I was wondering

[Lordmandeep]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm talking about smaller theaters that can't manage to keep The Last Jedi on all of its screens the following week because of so many movies opening that, yes, studios are contracted to show. This isn't rocket science I'm talking about. But I would expect no less from the person who claims nobody goes to the movies anymore unless it's for blockbusters (which last weekend proved to be quite the contrary).

 

 

The thing is TLJ is not a typical blockbuster that will open huge and be diminished by day 10. It will be getting massive box office grosses from Dec 25th to Jan 2nd as well.  

 

Going from 5 screens to 3-4 makes sense.

 

You are suggesting it would go from 5 to 2 by its 2nd weekend, which I have never ever really seen happen at local small theatres for movies as big as TLJ.

 

A theatre would push out all of the old movies instead. 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[YM!]

So I watched MSNBC this morning and got a lot of ads for The Star. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

That Cinemark news likely explains why Star Wars presales popped yesterday and it got above 8% on MT.  I was wondering

My Cinemark's had Star Wars, but not The Star...but there were probably some small chains/independents that just opened up presales for Star Wars (or big ones who opened up extra screens/showings) yesterday for Star Wars:)...

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, YourMother said:

So I watched MSNBC this morning and got a lot of ads for The Star. 

Saving that ad budget for the VERY last minute:)...

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

The thing is TLJ is not a typical blockbuster that will open huge and be diminished by day 10. It will be getting massive box office grosses from Dec 25th to Jan 2nd as well.  

 

Going from 5 screens to 3-4 makes sense.

 

You are suggesting it would go from 5 to 2 by its 2nd weekend, which I have never ever really seen happen at local small theatres for movies as big as TLJ.

 

A theatre would push out all of the old movies instead. 

 

 

I'm not talking about the older movies. I'm talking about the Christmas weekend releases, which currently has no less than 6 expected to open in wide release.

[La Binoche]

 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

 

I won't be surprised if it opens over $20M at this point. Lionsgate made a great choice bumping this from April to around Thanksgiving.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I won't be surprised if it opens over $20M at this point. Lionsgate made a great choice bumping this from April to around Thanksgiving.

They also have great innovative campaigns to sell tickets (as well as the old Atom stand by)...they have a great marketing team selling this movie (since RT ratings likely will not:)...

[Lordmandeep]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm not talking about the older movies. I'm talking about the Christmas weekend releases, which currently has no less than 6 expected to open in wide release.

 

It won't be 2 screens though.

 

It will likely be like this on Dec 22nd 

Ten Theather 

 

Star Wars 3 screen (4th may be interlocked)

The other 7 Releases from Dec 15th to Dec 22nd. 

 

Plus I think only Pitch Perfect and Jumanji will do over 100 million really and maybe Ferdinand. 

Edited November 14, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[Rumpot]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

My Cinemark's had Star Wars, but not The Star...but there were probably some small chains/independents that just opened up presales for Star Wars (or big ones who opened up extra screens/showings) yesterday for Star Wars:)...

haha, embarrassing misread by me...got it

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

It won't be 2 screens though.

 

It will likely be like this on Dec 22nd 

Ten Theather 

 

Star Wars 3 screen (4th may be interlocked)

The other 7 Releases from Dec 15th to Dec 22nd. 

 

Plus I think only Pitch Perfect and Jumanji will do over 100 million really and maybe Ferdinand. 

That most certainly won't be the case at my theater (a 20 screen multiplex currently a 10 screen theater because they are renovating to have lounger chairs in the theaters).  They also get specialty releases because this place also draws the Oscar crowd (they are getting Call Me by Your Name on the 22nd, so they probably won't be getting things like Father Figures which won't sell nearly as well).

[Lordmandeep]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That most certainly won't be the case at my theater (a 20 screen multiplex currently a 10 screen theater because they are renovating to have lounger chairs in the theaters).  They also get specialty releases because this place also draws the Oscar crowd (they are getting Call Me by Your Name on the 22nd, so they probably won't be getting things like Father Figures which won't sell nearly as well).

 

 

It all depends on the crowd really.

 

My local ten theater caters to a family crowd, so it would make no sense to put SW7 on 2 screens right? 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

It all depends on the crowd really.

 

My local ten theater caters to a family crowd, so it would make no sense to put SW7 on 2 screens right? 

The theater I frequent draws all kinds of audiences (go there on any given weekend and you'll see a busy parking lot) but have become increasingly selective due to the renovating and are likely really about to due to all the holiday movies coming out. They will get Jumanji, The Greatest Showman, and Pitch Perfect 3 for cause those will obviously sell the most of the new releases for Christmas. They will definitely get Ferdinand because of the concession sales perks with the kids as well. It's everything else that is up in the air due to the specialty nature of the theater (though they already have Call Me by Your Name booked because that will definitely sell well here).

[WrathOfHan]

This is probably what a 12plex will look like over Christmas:

 

Star Wars x3

All the Money in the World

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Father Figures

The Greatest Showman

Jumanji

Pitch Perfect

Ferdinand

Coco/Wonder/Disaster Artist

 

For a 10plex, take out Darkest Hour and the last mixture of holds. The number of releases will hurt the amount of additional screens Pitch Perfect and Jumanji can pick up. If All the Money in the World can't make its release date, that would definitely help those two and other holds.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

This is probably what a 12plex will look like over Christmas:

 

Star Wars x3

All the Money in the World

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Father Figures

The Greatest Showman

Jumanji

Pitch Perfect

Ferdinand

Coco/Wonder/Disaster Artist

 

For a 10plex, take out Darkest Hour and the last mixture of holds. The number of releases will hurt the amount of additional screens Pitch Perfect and Jumanji can pick up. If All the Money in the World can't make its release date, that would definitely help those two and other holds.

The Shape of Water might be going wide on Christmas as well. Everything released before Star Wars that isn't an expanding specialty release is toast.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

The Shape of Water might be going wide on Christmas as well. Everything released before Star Wars that isn't an expanding specialty release is toast.

Searchlight is going slow on Three Billboards, so the same will probably happen with SOW. 3B's first four weekends are 4/50/400/600-800, so that would fit December perfectly for SOW. Afterwards, it can go ultra wide the first weekend of January.