The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Searchlight is going slow on Three Billboards, so the same will probably happen with SOW. 3B's first four weekends are 4/50/400/600-800, so that would fit December perfectly for SOW. Afterwards, it can go ultra wide the first weekend of January.

They seem to be expanding it really quickly (it's opening at a bunch of theaters around here on the 15th so probably at least 400 like Three Billboards will next weekend). 

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

This is probably what a 12plex will look like over Christmas:

 

Star Wars x3

All the Money in the World

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Father Figures

The Greatest Showman

Jumanji

Pitch Perfect

Ferdinand

Coco/Wonder/Disaster Artist

 

For a 10plex, take out Darkest Hour and the last mixture of holds. The number of releases will hurt the amount of additional screens Pitch Perfect and Jumanji can pick up. If All the Money in the World can't make its release date, that would definitely help those two and other holds.

I doubt 10s and 12s pick up all the new movies right away...I'd expect 1-2 of the new releases having to wait to Dec 29 (or even Jan 5) for screens...especially if there's any holdovers still making $10-15M+ on the Dec 15-17 weekend...

 

In fact, b/c of this, I'd expect some of the planned releases themselves (especially the adult directed ones) to open less wide than expected and then expand...especially if either JL or Coco hits big the next 2 weekends (or if Wonder really keeps up its baby "big movie" status:), b/c those new movies know they will get pushed out in the screens war...

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I doubt 10s and 12s pick up all the new movies right away...I'd expect 1-2 of the new releases having to wait to Dec 29 (or even Jan 5) for screens...especially if there's any holdovers still making $10-15M+ on the Dec 15-17 weekend...

 

In fact, b/c of this, I'd expect some of the planned releases themselves (especially the adult directed ones) to open less wide than expected and then expand...especially if either JL or Coco hits big the next 2 weekends (or if Wonder really keeps up its baby "big movie" status:), b/c those new movies know they will get pushed out in the screens war...

The only Christmas weekend openers that will be 3,000+ theater releases will be the aforementioned big three (Greatest Showman, Jumanji, Pitch Perfect 3). Everything else will be booked on the basis of whether the theaters think they will sell or not. I also expect one of them to move back to Christmas Day.

[WrathOfHan]

Star Wars: 4,200+

Jumanji: 3,900

Greatest Showman: 3,800

Pitch Perfect: 3,500

Ferdinand: 3,200

Money: 2,500

Downsizing: 2,200

Father Figures: 2,000

Darkest Hour: 1,800

[SchumacherFTW]

Second weekend of TFA at my local six screen looked like this back in 2015:

4x Force Awakens 

Daddy's Home, Peanuts, Sisters, In the Heart of the Sea and something else all screen shared. TLJ will still have half the screens in most multiplexes over Xmas easy! 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Star Wars: 4,200+

Jumanji: 3,900

Greatest Showman: 3,800

Pitch Perfect: 3,500

Ferdinand: 3,200

Money: 2,500

Downsizing: 2,200

Father Figures: 2,000

Darkest Hour: 1,800

I could see All the Money in the World opening in 1,500 theaters like The Big Short did when it went wide two weeks ago. We just have to wait and see if it'll be able to make the date.

[WrathOfHan]

This is what my theater had last Christmas IIRC:

 

Biggest: Rogue One

2nd Biggest: Sing during the day/Rogue One at night

Averages: Rogue One during the day/Sing at night, Assassin's Creed, Passengers, Fences, Why Him?, Moana

4th Smallest: Fantastic Beasts/Office Christmas Party (FB was down to like 1 per day)

3rd Smallest: Assassin's Creed/Passengers

2nd Smallest: Collateral Beauty

Smallest: Pretty sure this was another Sing/Rogue One screen but I'm not certain

 

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I could see All the Money in the World opening in 1,500 theaters like The Big Short did when it went wide two weeks ago. We just have to wait and see if it'll be able to make the date.

The only Ridley Scott movie that opened in less than 2,100 theaters this millennium is A Good Year (not counting Black Hawk Down's limited release where it went 4/16/3,100), and none have opened in less than 2k. I don't see it getting less than 2k theaters, especially now that it has some buzz behind it.

Edited November 14, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[grim22]

Deep Wang:

- JL slightly ahead of BvS at exact same point. Let’s see how Wednesday and Thursday escalation goes (about 40% ahead of SS and 90 ahead of WW.). No exact point in time comp for Thor. The next figures for Thor and BvS which we got were final figures prior to release, so no more comps coming there anymore.

- Wonder doing really well, still one of the lowest average ticket prices I have seen. Probably sold most of it for matinees thanks to the Girl and Boy Scouts Troops buying the tickets

- The Star is bad, but it is walkups based so who knows.

[Lordmandeep]

I still don't see this out opening Batman vs Superman ^

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang:

- JL slightly ahead of BvS at exact same point. Let’s see how Wednesday and Thursday escalation goes (about 40% ahead of SS and 90 ahead of WW.). No exact point in time comp for Thor. The next figures for Thor and BvS which we got were final figures prior to release, so no more comps coming there anymore.

- Wonder doing really well, still one of the lowest average ticket prices I have seen. Probably sold most of it for matinees thanks to the Girl and Boy Scouts Troops buying the tickets

- The Star is bad, but it is walkups based so who knows.

Is it though? Christian flicks tend to rely on presales a bit.

[raegr]

This is currently doing 32.2 tickets/min on Pulse.

 

Very good. SM was at 19 tix/min

 

So very good!

[TalismanRing]

Fandango Meter:

10am EST

 

JL: 19.2 avg

Wonder: 2.5 avg

Sta: .8

 

Comps

Thor 3 : 25 (10 am)

WW: 41 (4pm) (just leaving this here for later - maybe)

[grim22]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

I still don't see this out opening Batman vs Superman ^

Presales may not be just OW based. Like mentioned by actual theater employees, JL has a 10 day schedule published already. Families can buy tickets for Thanksgiving viewing etc. I would say the presales number for JL is a 10-day number vs the 3-day number for BvS. Might be a lower percentage past the 3 days but BvS has like 55% of presales for OD IIRC

[WrathOfHan]

Wonder is picking up FAST at my theater; it had no tickets sold for Thursday last night, but now it's at 12/78  

The Star has only sold 3 tickets.

JL:

 

6:00: 32/124

6:00 3D: 4/78

6:45 3D: 15/78

7:30: 41/113

[raegr]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango Meter:

10am EST

 

JL: 19.2 avg

Wonder: 2.5 avg

Sta: .8

 

Comps

Thor 3 : 25 (10 am)

WW: 41 (4pm) (just leaving this here for later - maybe)

How are you counting for JL?

 

I'm getting 30s and higher!

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Is it though? Christian flicks tend to rely on presales a bit.

It’s also a family film. But idk, I can see anywhere from $5M-$15M OW

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, raegr said:

How are you counting for JL?

 

I'm getting 30s and higher!

As discussed before, I count according to the Fandango clock in the upper left hand corner

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I still don't see this out opening Batman vs Superman ^

It's not  a great comp since it's 19 months ago.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

As discussed before, I count according to the Fandango clock in the upper left hand corner

With all due respect, that is not an average. You are counting snap shots in time which really yield no value in and of themselves. You could count 19 one minute and 50 the next. 

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, raegr said:

How are you counting for JL?

 

I'm getting 30s and higher!

It’s an average. Ie add up each tickets sold in minute divide by amount of minutes.