The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

On 11/7/2017 at 4:21 PM, WrathOfHan said:

The Foreigner, Happy Death Day, Only the Brave, and Suburbicon are gone.

 

Daddy's Home 2: 8 (Average)

Murder on the Orient Express: 7 (2nd Biggest and Average)

 

Thor: Ragnarok: 11 (Up 1; 6 2D/5 3D; Biggest and Average)

A Bad Moms Christmas: 4 (Flat; Average)

Geostorm: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

Jigsaw: 4 (Down 1; 2nd Smallest)

Thank You for Your Service: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

 

During the weekend, Thor has the two biggest auditoriums and 18 showings across 4 screens while Orient Express has 11 showings across two average auditoriums and the 2nd/3rd smallest with other movies

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Geostorm, Jigsaw, and Thank You for Your Service are gone.

 

Justice League: 14 (7 2D/7 3D; Biggest, 2nd Biggest, Average, and 4th Smallest)

The Star: 5 (Average)

Wonder: 5 (Average)

 

Daddy's Home 2: 7 (Down 1; Average and 3rd Smallest)

Murder on the Orient Express: 6 (Down 1; Average and 2nd Smallest)

A Bad Moms Christmas: 5 (Up 1; Smallest)

Thor: Ragnarok: 5 (Down 6; 2 2D/3 3D; Average and 4th Smallest)

Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: 1 (Down 3; Average)

 

Note: holiday hours are in effect. It's kind of weird that two screens are 1 Madea/2 Orient Express and 1 Wonder/1 Thor/1 Justice League, but you do you, theater.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Edited November 15, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Hiccup23]

29 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I agree with the statement but a few notes:

1.) I’m flattered by me being considered but @Hiccup23 uses the biggest theater in Wisconsin and I use my personal theater but I believe it’s popular in the state but I’d say his word has way more power than mine.

2.) It is also possible for the chain it was spread throughout the technical 10 day holiday weekend.

 

@mredman

 

I just want to leave a disclaimer: My theater while big and popular is still just a single theater. It occasionally doesn't reflect what the rest of the theater chains across America see. 

 

That being said, I am definitely now beginning to see a pattern in how many tickets are sold for a film and the preview number. The ranges are still fairly wide but getting more defined with the occasional outlier. Based on my history of films that sold similarly to JL, it should get a preview number between 10M-15M. Wonder should do between 400k and 700k. Again, there is the strong possibility the films might do above or below those ranges but I am 90% confident based off the numbers I have now and the based history that these films will fall in this range for the preview #. Walk-ups can change everything of course. Wonder Woman, Foreigner, and Annabelle Creation are prime examples. And some films started out of the gate fast, Bladerunner 2049, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Alien Covenant, and Dark Tower but then had poor walk up sales and ended up below what I was thinking. Wednesday and Thursday morning/early afternoon things get more concrete. I have this weird gut feeling JL is gonna fall behind Thor 3's 944 final ticket sale number. Hoping I am wrong. 

 

Current Standings

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 1,719 tickets sold

2. Wonder Woman: 1,270 tickets sold - Most Tickets Sold But Translated into a 11M Preview Number. Smallest Preview # in the Top 5. 

3. IT: 1,140 tickets sold

4. Spider-Man: Homecoming: 966 tickets sold - Largest Preview Number: 15.4M

5. Thor 3: 944 tickets sold

6. Pirates 5: 778 tickets sold

7. Justice League: 442 tickets sold

8. Alien Convenant: 415 tickets sold

9. Despicable Me 3: 412 tickets sold

10. Annabelle Creation: 385 tickets sold

11. Dunkirk: 371 tickets sold. 

 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Hiccup23 said:

 

@mredman

 

I just want to leave a disclaimer: My theater while big and popular is still just a single theater. It occasionally doesn't reflect what the rest of the theater chains across America see. 

 

That being said, I am definitely now beginning to see a pattern in how many tickets are sold for a film and the preview number. The ranges are still fairly wide but getting more defined with the occasional outlier. Based on my history of films that sold similarly to JL, it should get a preview number between 10M-15M. Wonder should do between 400k and 700k. Again, there is the strong possibility the films might do above or below those ranges but I am 90% confident based off the numbers I have now and the based history that these films will fall in this range for the preview #. Walk-ups can change everything of course. Wonder Woman, Foreigner, and Annabelle Creation are prime examples. And some films started out of the gate fast, Bladerunner 2049, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Alien Covenant, and Dark Tower but then had poor walk up sales and ended up below what I was thinking. Wednesday and Thursday morning/early afternoon things get more concrete. I have this weird gut feeling JL is gonna fall behind Thor 3's 944 final ticket sale number. Hoping I am wrong. 

 

Current Standings

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 1,719 tickets sold

2. Wonder Woman: 1,270 tickets sold - Most Tickets Sold But Translated into a 11M Preview Number. Smallest Preview # in the Top 5. 

3. IT: 1,140 tickets sold

4. Spider-Man: Homecoming: 966 tickets sold - Largest Preview Number: 15.4M

5. Thor 3: 944 tickets sold

6. Pirates 5: 778 tickets sold

7. Justice League: 442 tickets sold

8. Alien Convenant: 415 tickets sold

9. Despicable Me 3: 412 tickets sold

10. Annabelle Creation: 385 tickets sold

11. Dunkirk: 371 tickets sold. 

 

I ran out of likes but I agree.

[mredman]

6 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

 

@mredman

 

I just want to leave a disclaimer: My theater while big and popular is still just a single theater. It occasionally doesn't reflect what the rest of the theater chains across America see. 

 

That being said, I am definitely now beginning to see a pattern in how many tickets are sold for a film and the preview number. The ranges are still fairly wide but getting more defined with the occasional outlier. Based on my history of films that sold similarly to JL, it should get a preview number between 10M-15M. Wonder should do between 400k and 700k. Again, there is the strong possibility the films might do above or below those ranges but I am 90% confident based off the numbers I have now and the based history that these films will fall in this range for the preview #. Walk-ups can change everything of course. Wonder Woman, Foreigner, and Annabelle Creation are prime examples. And some films started out of the gate fast, Bladerunner 2049, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Alien Covenant, and Dark Tower but then had poor walk up sales and ended up below what I was thinking. Wednesday and Thursday morning/early afternoon things get more concrete. I have this weird gut feeling JL is gonna fall behind Thor 3's 944 final ticket sale number. Hoping I am wrong. 

 

Current Standings

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 1,719 tickets sold

2. Wonder Woman: 1,270 tickets sold - Most Tickets Sold But Translated into a 11M Preview Number. Smallest Preview # in the Top 5. 

3. IT: 1,140 tickets sold

4. Spider-Man: Homecoming: 966 tickets sold - Largest Preview Number: 15.4M

5. Thor 3: 944 tickets sold

6. Pirates 5: 778 tickets sold

7. Justice League: 442 tickets sold

8. Alien Convenant: 415 tickets sold

9. Despicable Me 3: 412 tickets sold

10. Annabelle Creation: 385 tickets sold

11. Dunkirk: 371 tickets sold. 

 

But didnt you just say JL was ahead of Thor in your earlier post. So slightly confused here when you say its behind in ticket sales now ? and where do you think it will open too with your intel or gestimation ?

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, mredman said:

But didnt you just say JL was ahead of Thor in your earlier post. So slightly confused here when you say its behind in ticket sales now ? and where do you think it will open too with your intel or gestimation ?

At the same point in time (ie same Tuesday before release). It depends on walkups too.

[mredman]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

At the same point in time (ie same Tuesday before release). It depends on walkups too.

so what are you guys thinking it will open too ? Not 140-160 anymore ?

[Subzero]

3 minutes ago, mredman said:

so what are you guys thinking it will open too ? Not 140-160 anymore ?

 

Wednesday/Thursday ticket sale will tell us more ...plus walk will have to be huge.

[YM!]

17 minutes ago, mredman said:

so what are you guys thinking it will open too ? Not 140-160 anymore ?

I normally look at the Tuesday or Wednesday before and get somewhat of a good idea on OW. I mean every theater is different, I’m still on the $150M OW train but I can’t see over $160M anymore tbh. I’m not an analyst, I just look at my theater and see what’s selling. Sometimes North Shore is right (IT over Homecoming, Thor over $110M OW (slightly stronger walk ups then expected)), sometimes wrong (Kingsman over Apes, DH2 under $25M OW). 

Edited November 15, 2017 by YourMother

[eXtacy2]

If it does open that low I think DC will never put one of their films close to other big super hero films again. Its astonishing to think tracking numbers may have decreased.

[Rumpot]

I think JL starting at 6pm, so far, hasn't helped sales.  The 6pm showings are selling less than the 1030s for Thursday.  For that reason I think the addition of showtimes will give a big boost (hopefully)

[Subzero]

4 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

I think JL starting at 6pm, so far, hasn't helped sales.  The 6pm showings are selling less than the 1030s for Thursday.  For that reason I think the addition of showtimes will give a big boost (hopefully)

My theaters are the exact opposite ... the earlier show time are almost sold out...while the later time slots are less.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

I think JL starting at 6pm, so far, hasn't helped sales.  The 6pm showings are selling less than the 1030s for Thursday.  For that reason I think the addition of showtimes will give a big boost (hopefully)

That’s what happened with Thor at my theater. The 9:00 showing sold way more than the 6:00 showing due to the $20 fan screening. The 7:00 showing sell the best out of all. JL thankfully is the opposite.

[TheMovieman]

11 minutes ago, Subzero said:

My theaters are the exact opposite ... the earlier show time are almost sold out...while the later time slots are less.

Same here.

[raegr]

35.6 Tickets/Min (not sure what to think)

 

Thor Ragnarok - 22.8% and JL - 16.7%

 

[TheMovieman]

3 minutes ago, raegr said:

35.6 Tickets/Min (not sure what to think)

 

Thor Ragnarok - 22.8% and JL - 16.7%

 

Discount Tuesday?

Edited November 15, 2017 by TheMovieman

[Rumpot]

9:28 to 9:33pm EST JL with 210 sales in 5min for average 42/min

[mredman]

6 minutes ago, raegr said:

35.6 Tickets/Min (not sure what to think)

 

Thor Ragnarok - 22.8% and JL - 16.7%

 

its tuesday

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, raegr said:

35.6 Tickets/Min (not sure what to think)

 

Thor Ragnarok - 22.8% and JL - 16.7%

 

Discount Tuesday and perhaps take a break with JL, you seem to go “un poco loco” about it this past week.

[raegr]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Discount Tuesday and perhaps take a break with JL, you seem to go “un poco loco” about it this past week.

I know I know. I've been on the forum less. Reading, tinkering, doing other things. 

[Hiccup23]

54 minutes ago, mredman said:

But didnt you just say JL was ahead of Thor in your earlier post. So slightly confused here when you say its behind in ticket sales now ? and where do you think it will open too with your intel or gestimation ?

 

Sorry if I confused you.

 

JL is ahead as of now.

 

Tuesday Before Previews

JL- 442 tickets sold

Thor 3- 416 tickets sold

 

What I was trying to say is that I have a feeling JL isn't gonna sell well when it comes to walk ups and will ultimately fall behind the total tickets sold of Thor 3 (944 tickets).

 

I am gonna say a preview number of 14-15M.