The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

Can sub $100M OW happen?

Possible... but that would mean DW and another major source I put a lot of faith in regarding presales would have been drastically off. It would also go against what tracking was indicating (which was $125-130m three weeks ago). Hard to see those three sources being wrong, but with a holiday coming up, we'll see.

[raegr]

I still believe in 140M+ and perhaps tracking is off but presales...

 

 

Yeah no, who knows, maybe this is walkup heavy.

 

We'll see the preview number. 

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, raegr said:

I still believe in 140M+ and perhaps tracking is off but presales...

 

 

Yeah no, who knows, maybe this is walkup heavy.

 

We'll see the preview number. 

 

 

10:00 pm shows have been rather blah 

[Shawn Robbins]

If anyone's looking for a plus side, an opening around $110m or less could mean a better multiplier than expected with the holiday coming up. I still can't shake the feeling kids will really drive business despite reviews in a Transformers-like way.

[WrathOfHan]

Total sales for tonight:

 

JL:

6:00: 85/124

6:00 3D: 24/78

6:45 3D: 29/78

7:30: 89/113

8:15: 58/78

8:45 3D: 37/78

Total: 322/549

 

Wonder: 40/78

 

The Star:

5:00: 6/69

7:15: 9/69

Total: 15/138

 

JL finished at 96% of/15 tickets behind Thor, which would translate to a 117.8M OW. Given the frontloaded nature of DC films, I feel fine sticking with my 105M prediction. Friday update coming shortly.

 

I should also note that Thor had less capacity despite the same number of showings.

Edited November 17, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Plain Old Tele]

10 minutes ago, raegr said:

I still believe in 140M+ and perhaps tracking is off but presales...

 

 

Yeah no, who knows, maybe this is walkup heavy.

 

We'll see the preview number. 

 

I'm thinking sub-110m at this point.

[Lordmandeep]

7 minutes ago, Shawn said:

If anyone's looking for a plus side, an opening around $110m or less could mean a better multiplier than expected with the holiday coming up. I still can't shake the feeling kids will really drive business despite reviews in a Transformers-like way.

um but the base number would be crazy low to start off with...

 

Like I cant see it doing 300 million especially with TLJ in the way with that opening. 

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[TwoMisfits]

Another update - 3 more JL showings added to my local for 6 extra tonight and 10 total (plus the special showing:)...this beat the amount Thor 3 got Thursday night:)...

[DAJK]

JL is selling like shit here. My show has sold like 1/2 as many tickets as Thor did for its first show

[Biggestgeekever]

10 minutes ago, Shawn said:

If anyone's looking for a plus side, an opening around $110m or less could mean a better multiplier than expected with the holiday coming up. I still can't shake the feeling kids will really drive business despite reviews in a Transformers-like way.

That's my thinking as well. I keep thinking about the last several pre-Thanksgiving openers, and pretty much none of them matched OW expectations but ended up getting stronger than expected legs.

 

The same could happen here, so I don't think $300M is dead with a $110M opening, but any lower than that and it's going to be extremely difficult.

[Shawn Robbins]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

um but the base number would be crazy low to start off with...

 

Like I cant see it doing 300 million especially with TLJ in the way with that opening. 

 

 

 

Of course not... unless they Superman Returns it.

[Shawn Robbins]

3 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

That's my thinking as well. I keep thinking about the last several pre-Thanksgiving openers, and pretty much none of them matched OW expectations but ended up getting stronger than expected legs.

 

The same could happen here, so I don't think $300M is dead with a $110M opening, but any lower than that and it's going to be extremely difficult.

Great point. The Mockingjay movies were a strong basis for our low and high end range because of that very reason.

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

Spoiler

 

JL:

 

10:00: 36/78

11:00 3D: 1/78

12:00: 4/78

1:00: 13/124

2:00 3D: 2/113

3:00: 13/78

3:30: 0/78

4:00: 6/124

5:00 3D: 10/113

5:30 3D: 2/78

6:00 3D: 0/78

7:00: 91/124

8:00 3D: 7/113

8:30 3D: 0/78

9:00 3D: 0/78

9:30: 14/78

9:45: 0/63

10:00: 48/124

11:00 3D: 4/113

 

Wonder:

 

10:30: 36/78

1:15: 14/78

4:00: 14/78

6:45: 36/78

9:30: 0/78

 

OE:

 

10:40: 12/63

1:25: 9/63

3:25: 5/78

4:10: 7/63

6:10: 0/78

7:00: 4/63

9:00: 0/78

 

DH2:

 

11:30: 3/67

12:45: 2/78

2:00: 0/67

4:30: 3/67

6:30: 4/78

7:00: 0/67

9:30: 0/67

 

The Star:

 

9:50: 0/78

1:00: 2/78

3:15: 0/78

5:30: 3/78

7:45: 5/78

10:00: 0/78

 

Thor:

 

10:30: 0/69

1:30 3D: 2/69

2:15 3D: 0/78

4:30: 4/69

7:30 3D: 0/69

10:30: 0/69

 

Bad Moms:

 

10:05: 2/60

12:40: 0/60

3:10: 0/60

5:40: 0/60

8:10: 2/60

10:40: 0/60

 

Madea:

 

12:55: 2/78

 

 

JL: 251/1,791

Wonder: 100/390

OE: 37/486

DH2: 12/491

The Star: 10/468

Thor: 6/423

Bad Moms: 4/360

Madea: 2/78

 

Goddamn, JL looks fucking pitiful during the day. The total day is running at 84% of Thor, but when you narrow it down to showings before 7 PM, it's only at 54% of Thor. Fucking hell.

Wonder is a fucking BEAST. This is at 133% of OE and 233% of DH2! 

The Star is 45% of Ninjago and 67% of MLP. I don't know if I should bump my 5M prediction up 1 or 2M.

[Shawn Robbins]

Wonder feels like a mini-Blind Side.

[Rumpot]

AMC Tysons Mclean in Northern VA for JL

 

Total up to $19,944.28 from $15,273.08 at 9PM from 4:30PM 

*Well past IT's $12,843 preview and Thor $15,348.16 (including Thor with Fan event = $18,618.16). Thor did extremely well here so this seems very positive.  I will stop updates here as I stopped watching Thor around this time as well

 

Dolby 

6pm - 151/245  (up 5)

935pm - 182/245 (up 23)

 

Imax 

6pm - 131/461 (up 18)

855pm - 202/461 (up 52)

 

RealD  

7pm- 28/291 (up 2)

1010pm - 23/291 (up 15)

 

Regular 

6pm – 100/291 (up 42)

8pm - 192/291 (up 91)

1030pm – 25/162 (up 19)

1055pm - 68/291 (up 13)

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

Wonder feels like a mini-Blind Side.

I'm alllllll on board the 30M train this weekend and think it has a shot at beating Hidden Figures.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm alllllll on board the 30M train this weekend and think it has a shot at beating Hidden Figures.

That would be incredible. I think group sales are a big share of the initial presale window but it's definitely that kind of movie that could surprise. Comps have been tricky with that one.

[excel1]

Theater here in Texas mobbed

[TheMovieman]

11 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Theater here in Texas mobbed

Protesting how terrible JL is and demanding refunds, amiright

[HesAPooka]

50 minutes ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

I'm thinking sub-110m at this point.