The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

On 11/14/2017 at 2:57 PM, TwoMisfits said:

So, let's do 2 local theater trackings (one Regal, one Cinemark:)...aka, my locals:)...only Thursday night figures...

 

1st local (where JL did not sell well originally) - Cinemark

JL 3d 25/125, 1/125 for 26/250

JL 2d 48/185, 82/175, 46/185, 27/185 for 203/720

JL total 229/970

Wonder 27/110, 0/110 for 27/220

The Star (new sale today) 0/60, 0/60 for 0/120 

 

2nd local (where JL did sell well originally) - Regal

JL 3d 62/90, 33/90 for 95/180

JL 2d 128/170, 109/170 for 237/340

JL/WW Special (new sale today) 22/125 (all new sales from 9am)

JL Total 354/645

Wonder 31/90, 0/90 for 31/180

The Star 0/50, 0/50, 0/50 for 0/150 (all is not lost, since it's 11, 1, and 3pm shows on Sat/Sun have all sold tickets from 4-29 - yup, optimism:)...

These were numbers 2 days from opening at this time, so I'll use this for a Coco comparison to Wonder (and The Star info will be here, too, but that was obvs not a preseller:)...

 

1st local (same screen size as Wonder)

Coco 2d 20/110

Coco 3d 5/110

Total Coco 25/220

Total Wonder at same time 27/220

 

2nd local (same screen size as Wonder)

Coco 2d 24/90

Coco 3d 4/90

Total Coco 28/180

Total Wonder at same time 31/180

 

Now, Wonder had group presales...BUT Coco has the Pixar name and the brand...so tracking slightly below Wonder 2 days out is not where you wanna be with a Pixar movie around Thanksgiving, no matter how it might recover...I mean, Wonder went bonkers from this point...we'll see if Coco does...but even going bonkers, it was limited to under $30M thanks to screen availability and competition...3d will help with higher ticket cost, so if they sell the same, Coco should have extra BO...but still...

 

 

[TalismanRing]

Fandango Meter

3PM (EST)

Coco: 5.33 avg

 

I don't have any Sunday comps

 

DM3: Monday - 4 days out - 4.8av (6pm) 

Emoji: Monday - 2.2 avg (11pm) & Wed- 3.6 (6pm)

Ninjango: Wed: 3.8 (2:10pm) 4 (6:10pm) & Thur 7 (5:10), 11 (7:30pm)

The Star: Tues .8 (10am), .4 (11:30am) (3 days out)

 

 

 

[Rumpot]

Coco has pockets of strength in the DC/Nova area. AMC Georgetown 7pm is 26/66 for Tuesday. My AMC (McLean) is 18/241 right now for 7pm

Edited November 19, 2017 by Rumpot

[DAJK]

Just remembered that Tremblay is in Shane Black's Predator!!!

 

My boy making his way to the A-list

 

edit: thought I was in the weekend thread, oops

Edited November 19, 2017 by DAJK

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Coco has pockets of strength in the DC/Nova area. AMC Georgetown 7pm is 26/66 for Tuesday. My AMC (McLean) is 18/241 right now for 7pm

That's gotta be bad for the area though, right, b/c that area should be that multicultural pocket Deadline referenced that they think will help the movie...

[YM!]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

That's gotta be bad for the area though, right, b/c that area should be that multicultural pocket Deadline referenced that they think will help the movie...

Here’s the thing though. Animated movies unless a sequel are notorious for shitty presales. Even Pixar and WDAS originals have had bad pre sales.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, YourMother said:

Here’s the thing though. Animated movies unless a sequel are notorious for shitty presales. Even Pixar and WDAS originals have had bad pre sales.

Yeah, but Wonder isn't a sequel either...and Pixar/Disney tend to buck this trend, at least slightly...they aren't right now...and without the presales, they won't get the showings for the week b/c it becomes a big risk vs all the other market sure things...

 

We went from a catastrophe of crap in October to a wealth of movie riches by late November...it's probably good this is the last big opener week for a few weeks to give some of these movies a chance to breathe with some legs before Star Wars...

[Rumpot]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

That's gotta be bad for the area though, right, b/c that area should be that multicultural pocket Deadline referenced that they think will help the movie...

Hard to say as even though the area is relatively high in terms of Hispanic population (#12 here - http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/hispanic-population-in-select-u-s-metropolitan-areas/ ) only 14.6% is Mexican.  I expect the movie to do very well in Texas, CA, parts of FL where the Mexican population specifically is very high.  To be clear I think it'll do well in other groups but as for the cultural aspect this is how I see it.

[Brainbug]

24 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Here’s the thing though. Animated movies unless a sequel are notorious for shitty presales. Even Pixar and WDAS originals have had bad pre sales.

 

I could see that change with The Incredibles 2. There will be TONS of adults who wanted to see that movie for years.

[YM!]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

I could see that change with The Incredibles 2. There will be TONS of adults who wanted to see that movie for years.

I can see that regardless. Sequels animated or not tend to have big presales.

 

Via Rolling Thunder on WOKJ about Coco:

Coco took a dip in our polling this weekend, likely due to the strength of Wonder. Thinking its OW will be impacted slightly because of it.

[Eric Atreides]

21 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Coco	244	2327	10.49%
Star Wars	2573	4330	59.42%
Fifty Shades	29	1921	1.51%

 

Coco and Star Wars have gained a decent amount over the past three days, while Fifty Shades has stayed relatively stagnant, save for a few more tickets sold on Friday. Ferdinand and Greatest Showman also got showtimes posted this past Thursday, but neither has sold anything yet.

Coco

297

2327

12.76%

 

The needle for Coco hasn't moved much, with most of the tickets being sold for the Wednesday show, but these additional tickets were sold on a weekend day when most people aren't buying tickets to upcoming movies, so I don't know if it means much.

[dxmatrixdt]

Are we going to have a record for best holdovers over Thanksgiving weekend??

 

This weekend, the top 20 had approximately 30,559 screens.  20,312 of them are holders, 10,247 are from the new releases and expansions.

Next week I have the top 20 looking like this

 

nc - 4,052 - Justice League

new - 3,900 - Coco

+100 - 3,196 - Wonder

-100 - 3,980 - Thor 3

-100 - 3,475 - Daddy's Home 2

-100 - 3,245 - Murder on the Orient Express

nc - 2,837 - The Star

-200 - 2,748 - Bad Moms Christmas

+1500 - 1,504 - Roman J Israel

???? - ?????? - Lady Bird

+425 - 478 - 3 Billboards

-600 - 601 - Jigsaw

-100 - 366 - Blade Runner

- 300 - 418 - Boo 2!

nc - 212 - Loving Vincent

-100 - 454 - Let there Be Light

nc - 217 - Florida Project

nc - 257 - Victoria and Abdul

-200 - 302 - Geostorm

-100 - 355 - LEGO

new - 4 - Darkest Hour

 

This gives 26,684 for the holdovers and +5,925 for Coco and all the expansions.  I just spent a few hours going over the last 10 years and something does not look right with this data.  Please take a look and see.  My system will crash processing this.  It seems we should have a record for holdover screes.  At least a record for lowest amount of new product over Thanksgiving holiday weekend. 

 

 

2017

196 million - Justice League +10,247 new & expanding screens - 20,312 top 20 holdovers

????????? - Coco +5,925 new & expanding screens - 26,684 top 20 holdovers

 

2016

149 million - Fantastic Beasts + 9,460 new & expanding screens - 23,255 top 20 holdovers

174 million - Moana +13,015 new & expanding screens - 22,440 top 20 holdovers

 

2015

174 million - MJ2 +10,202 new & expanding screens - 22,429 top 20 holdovers

183 million - Good Dinosaur, Creed +11,604 new & expanding screens - 22,265 top 20 holdovers

 

2014

187 million - MJ1 +4,398 new & expanding screens - 25,068 top 20 holdovers

155 million - HB2 , Penguins +8,020 new & expanding screens - 21,840 top 20 holdovers

 

2013

218 million - CF + 8,196 new & expanding screens - 24,768 top 20 holdovers

195 million - Frozen +10,501 new & expanding screens - 23,836 top 20 holdovers

 

2012

242 million - Twilight 5 +7,089 new & expanding screens - 22,277 top 20 holdovers

200 million - Guardians, Pi, Dawn +8,891 new & expanding screens - 20,505 top 20 holdovers

 

2011

215 million - Twilight 4 +7,779 new & expanding screens - 23,018 top 20 holdovers

155 million  - Muppets, Arthur C, Hugo +8,891 new & expanding screens - 23,509 top 20 holdovers

 

2010

186 million - Harry 7 +7,017 new & expanding screens - 24,381 top 20 holdovers

171 million - Tangled +11,748 new & expanding screens - 22,707 top 20 holdovers

 

2009

250 million - Twilight 2, Blind Side, Planet 51 +8,357 new & expanding screens, 21,544 top 20 holdovers

175 million - Old Dogs, Ninja Assassin +10,895 new & expanding screens - 22,588 top 20 holdovers

 

2008

157 million - Twilight, Bolt +8,859 new & expanding screens - 21,736 top 20 holdovers

155 million - Four XMAS, Australia, Transporter 3 +7,726 new & expanding screens - 21,734 top 20 holdovers

 

2007

93 million - Beowulf +7,562 new & expanding screens - 24,005 top 20 holdovers

151 million - Enchanted, Mist, Hitman +13,644 new & expanding screens - 22,104 top 20 holdovers

[a2k]

TGD dom was 2.2x the 5-day.

Moana dom was 3.0x the 5-day.

 

I think Coco could better Moana's legs if it's as good as a film as early buzz says and it opens lower (50-60 5-day vs Moana's 82-83 5-day)

There's the SW8 storm which will affect all movies including Coco but last year's RO+Sing faced by Moana, is as potent competition as SW8+Ferdinand this year.

 

3-3.5x the 5-day ow gives Coco a wide range of 150-210 dom using 50-60 5-day. 180 dom in the middle which is realistic atm imo.

OS could do 400+ I think (bettering both Sing and Moana's OS) for 600+ ww.

Edited November 20, 2017 by a2knet

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Wonder

2. JL

3. SW

4. Coco

5. Thor

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Wonder

2. JL

3. SW

4. Coco

5. Thor

Seeing Wonder at #1 and not Justice League just 4 days after they opened:

 

Edited November 20, 2017 by filmlover

[That One Girl]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Wonder

2. JL

3. SW

4. Coco

5. Thor

 

Cock finally appears

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Cock finally appears

The power of Cock.

[filmlover]

Just now, YourMother said:

The power of Cock.

NOT THE SEX THREAD!

[That One Girl]

come on we’re just talking about a chicken here

[Eric Atreides]

13 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Cock finally appears

When Roman Israel joins the top 5 and kicks out Cock.