The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, RFF said:

Pulse

 

Jumanji

Jedi

Insidious

TGS

PP3

 

With the weather I am not sure how reliable any of this is.

It can still give us an idea of the overall order of preference for the movies in a declining market, just not maybe where the actual number may end up...here's MT.com at the same time...

 

20.6% Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

17.9% Star Wars: The Last Jedi

10.2% Greatest Showman, The

7.9% Agnathavasi - Prince in Exile

7.1% Pitch Perfect 3

 

Foreign films usually do sell well on MT.com and horror movies not as much, so I'm not TOO worried Insidious isn't there yet...although it better be there by tomorrow morning:)...

[el sid]

And here it is:

#1 Jumanji 20.2%
#2 SW 8 17.2%
#3 The Greatest Showman 10.1%
#4 Prince in Exile 7.4%
#5 Insidious 4 7.1%

[WrathOfHan]

Final counts for previews:

 

Insidious: 34/124

Darkest Hour: 19/67

Molly's Game: 16/78

 

Insidious is finishing at 90% of Jigsaw (14.9M) and 105% of HDD (27.3M). The Friday report should clear things up.

Darkest Hour is finishing at 30% of OE (8.6M), 125% of 3B (5.5M), and 145% of OTB (8.7M). IDK how far comps can get on this one given it's an expansion from 900 theaters, but I still think over 6M can happen this weekend even with the storm.

Molly's Game is finishing at 40% of AM (6.7M), 100% of The Foreigner (13.1M), and 125% of OTB (7.5M). The same PTA as The Foreigner gets it to 8.4M.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Insidious is finishing at 90% of Jigsaw (14.9M) and 105% of HDD (27.3M). The Friday report should clear things up.

 

 

Are most schools back where you live?

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Are most schools back where you live?

K-12 went back today while community college goes back Monday. CC doesn't hold classes on Friday anyways, so it's basically even with the October films.

Edited January 5, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

I, Tonya is expanding to 242 theaters this weekend. Hopefully it does strong numbers.

[Hiccup23]

Insidious 4 is having a very solid night here. I would be surprised to see it not hit 1M in previews...I think 20M opening weekend is very very much in play. 

 

Insidous: The Last Key

150

468

32.1%

 

How Similar Films Performed. 

 

Jigsaw

149

1,138

13.1%

1.6M

 

Happy Death Day

200

1,216

16.4%

1.0M

 

Annabelle: Creation

385

848

45.4%

4.0M

 

47 Meters Down

76

312

24.4%

0.735K

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

On 1/3/2018 at 4:06 PM, CoolEric258 said:

Insidious	26	1789	1.45%
Fifty Shades	139	1921	7.24%

 

Insidious has all of their showtimes available, and as expected, it's pretty frontloaded, with almost all of the business being done on Thursday and Friday. Shades only saw a tiny bump.

Insidious	78	1563	4.99%
Fifty Shades	171	1921	8.90%

 

The winter storm hasn't had much affect on sales for Insidious, outside of Thursday previews being shut down. Fifty Shades saw a pretty big bump as well.

Edited January 5, 2018 by CoolEric258

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

 

Star Wars:

 

11:30: 11/113

12:45 3D: 2/69

3:00: 7/113

6:30: 12/113

7:15 3D: 2/69

10:00 3D: 0/113

 

Insidious:

 

10:05: 0/78

12:40: 1/78

3:10: 0/78

5:40: 2/78

8:10: 22/78

10:45: 3/78

 

Showman:

 

10:55: 4/78

1:35: 13/78

4:10: 0/78

6:45: 7/78

9:20: 0/78

 

Darkest Hour:

 

10:30: 9/78

1:30: 6/78

4:30: 8/78

7:25: 0/78

10:20: 0/78

 

Jumanji:

 

10:00: 1/69

10:45: 0/124

12:15: 9/78

1:45 3D: 0/124

3:15 3D: 3/78

4:45: 2/124

6:15: 3/78

7:45 3D: 0/124

9:15 3D: 0/78

10:45: 0/124

 

PP3:

 

11:45: 3/67

2:15: 0/63

5:15: 2/67

7:45: 12/63

10:35: 0/67

 

Molly:

 

10:00: 10/78

1:10: 3/78

4:20: 0/78

7:30: 0/78

10:40: 0/78

 

Ferdinand:

 

11:30: 0/60

2:05: 4/60

4:45: 0/60

7:20: 0/60

9:55: 0/60

 

Money:

 

11:15: 2/63

2:10: 0/67

4:40: 0/63

7:35: 0/67

10:10: 0/63

 

Wonder:

 

10:40: 1/78

1:25: 0/78

4:15: 0/78

7:00: 0/78

 

Star Wars: 34/590

Insidious: 28/468

Showman: 24/390

Darkest Hour: 23/390

Jumanji: 18/1,001

PP3: 17/327

Molly: 13/390

Ferdinand: 4/300

Money: 2/323

Downsizing and Father Figures have sold nothing.

 

Insidious is running at 80% of HDD (20.8M) and 105% of Jigsaw (17.4M). This is significantly more tilted in favor of evening shows (89%) compared to Jigsaw (52%) but close to HDD's tilt (82%).

Molly's Game comps (corresponding PTAs):

 

17% of OE (2.3M)

45% of MBU (2.5M)

50% of AM (4.7M)

60% of The Foreigner (5M)

70% of Downsizing (2.1M) (also not the best comp because of the Sunday drop)

 

So...... idk if this can cross 5M. We'll see.

 

Darkest Hour (PTAs):

 

30% of OE (4.5M)

40% of THB (8.6M)

85% of AM (8.2M)

105% of The Foreigner (9.5M)

 

If not for the snowstorm, I think we'd be seeing a 45% PTA drop from last weekend like La La Land did when it went into 1,500 theaters, which would be $3,200/5.5M. It's going to remain very close to last weekend at minimum, though.

[WrathOfHan]

TCs for next week (no Post yet):

 

> NO CHANGE
1	-	Paddington 2	Warner Bros.	3,600	-	-	0
2	-	The Commuter	Lionsgate	2,800	-	-	0
3	-	Proud Mary	Sony / Screen Gems	2,200	-	-	0
4	-	Condorito: La Pelicula	Lionsgate	150	-	-	0
5	-	The Insult	Cohen Media Group	2	-	-	0

 

 

Sony is dumping Proud Mary; only flops get that low of TCs from them  

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TCs for next week (no Post yet):

 

> NO CHANGE
1	-	Paddington 2	Warner Bros.	3,600	-	-	0
2	-	The Commuter	Lionsgate	2,800	-	-	0
3	-	Proud Mary	Sony / Screen Gems	2,200	-	-	0
4	-	Condorito: La Pelicula	Lionsgate	150	-	-	0
5	-	The Insult	Cohen Media Group	2	-	-	0

 

 

Sony is dumping Proud Mary; only flops get that low of TCs from them  

Also could be they're targeting the African American community exclusively.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Also could be they're targeting the African American community exclusively.

Shit, I didn't realize this is the typical ScreenGems TC  

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Also could be they're targeting the African American community exclusively.

Maybe, Think Like a Man Too did 29m OW on 2,225 theater, Perfect guy made 25m on 2,221 theater, you are right not sure 2,200 theater is that special for a S gems release, they have many big OW with around 2,200 theater (Takers), it is not like a regular main branch studio release theater counter wise.

 

Wedding ringer got 3,000 too.

[filmlover]

Just now, Barnack said:

Maybe, Think Like a Man Too did 29m OW on 2,225 theater, Perfect guy made 25m on 2,221 theater, you are right not sure 2,200 theater is that special for a S gems release, they have many big OW with around 2,200 theater (Takers), it is not like a regular main branch studio release theater counter wise.

 

Wedding ringer got 3,000 too.

To be fair, Wedding Ringer had a cast of recognizable names and faces beyond Hart (Josh Gad, Kaley Cuoco). Made sense that they gave it a really wide push.

[Jonwo]

On 03/01/2018 at 4:21 PM, filmlover said:

Probably not. I think it'll perform similarly to Zero Dark Thirty, maybe slightly better.

 

$25-30m would be very good for The Post but it wouldn't surprise me if it has a similar OW to Sully which did $35m. 

 

WB is giving Paddington 2 a wide release, that's more theaters than the first film? 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

WB is giving Paddington 2 a wide release, that's more theaters than the first film? 

It's a hell of a lot more than if Weinstein was still releasing it. 

[TwoMisfits]

End of night MT.com...

19.6% Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

16.9% Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9.6% Greatest Showman, The

9.2% Insidious: The Last Key

6.8% Agnathavasi - Prince in Exile

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Star Wars:

 

11:30: 11/113

12:45 3D: 2/69

3:00: 7/113

6:30: 12/113

7:15 3D: 2/69

10:00 3D: 0/113

 

Insidious:

 

10:05: 0/78

12:40: 1/78

3:10: 0/78

5:40: 2/78

8:10: 22/78

10:45: 3/78

 

Showman:

 

10:55: 4/78

1:35: 13/78

4:10: 0/78

6:45: 7/78

9:20: 0/78

 

Darkest Hour:

 

10:30: 9/78

1:30: 6/78

4:30: 8/78

7:25: 0/78

10:20: 0/78

 

Jumanji:

 

10:00: 1/69

10:45: 0/124

12:15: 9/78

1:45 3D: 0/124

3:15 3D: 3/78

4:45: 2/124

6:15: 3/78

7:45 3D: 0/124

9:15 3D: 0/78

10:45: 0/124

 

PP3:

 

11:45: 3/67

2:15: 0/63

5:15: 2/67

7:45: 12/63

10:35: 0/67

 

Molly:

 

10:00: 10/78

1:10: 3/78

4:20: 0/78

7:30: 0/78

10:40: 0/78

 

Ferdinand:

 

11:30: 0/60

2:05: 4/60

4:45: 0/60

7:20: 0/60

9:55: 0/60

 

Money:

 

11:15: 2/63

2:10: 0/67

4:40: 0/63

7:35: 0/67

10:10: 0/63

 

Wonder:

 

10:40: 1/78

1:25: 0/78

4:15: 0/78

7:00: 0/78

 

Star Wars: 34/590

Insidious: 28/468

Showman: 24/390

Darkest Hour: 23/390

Jumanji: 18/1,001

PP3: 17/327

Molly: 13/390

Ferdinand: 4/300

Money: 2/323

Downsizing and Father Figures have sold nothing.

 

Insidious is running at 80% of HDD (20.8M) and 105% of Jigsaw (17.4M). This is significantly more tilted in favor of evening shows (89%) compared to Jigsaw (52%) but close to HDD's tilt (82%).

Molly's Game comps (corresponding PTAs):

 

17% of OE (2.3M)

45% of MBU (2.5M)

50% of AM (4.7M)

60% of The Foreigner (5M)

70% of Downsizing (2.1M) (also not the best comp because of the Sunday drop)

 

So...... idk if this can cross 5M. We'll see.

 

Darkest Hour (PTAs):

 

30% of OE (4.5M)

40% of THB (8.6M)

85% of AM (8.2M)

105% of The Foreigner (9.5M)

 

If not for the snowstorm, I think we'd be seeing a 45% PTA drop from last weekend like La La Land did when it went into 1,500 theaters, which would be $3,200/5.5M. It's going to remain very close to last weekend at minimum, though.

Regarding that last bit, didn't LLL also have a snowstorm impacting that week? Mojo even mentioned it in their weekend article last year.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Regarding that last bit, didn't LLL also have a snowstorm impacting that week? Mojo even mentioned it in their weekend article last year.

Good point. If it follows LLL, it gets to 5.4M. Given the larger TC, I think it'll be closer to BOP's 6M prediction

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Good point. If it follows LLL, it gets to 5.4M. Given the larger TC, I think it'll be closer to BOP's 6M prediction

Yeah, it’s just so hard comping to LLL, being a front runner for many awards that year. That being said, hope Darkest Hour does well. I’m surprised Shape of Water didn’t expand this week