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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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anyone got exact theater counts yet?

I'm predicting I, Tonya doubles its 256 to 512.  

I saw a mention of Phantom Thread hitting 50 which would be (+44)

2,800 for the Post and Commuter which I predict up to 3,000

3,600 for Paddington 2 which I could see hitting the 3,801 Jumanji currently has.

3 Billboards could add half of its 310 next week (+165)

 

Assuming,

(+44) Phantom Thread - 50

(+256) I, Tonya - 512

(+165) 3 Biillboards - 475

(+2,800) The Post - 2,836

(+2,800) The Commuter - 2,800

(+3,600) Paddington 2 - 3,600

(+2,200) Proud Mary - 2,200

(+165) Condorito - 165

= 12,030 new 'theater counts'  added.

 

I counted 25 movies from this weekend and got 37,615 counts including the 4 films listed above.  At least 1,535 counts were not accounted 4.  Looking at previous history, a net gain of 5,000 counts seems appropriate.

take these 25 movies and their counts, analyze the week number of each film, and if it affects the $8.93 per ticket

 

3,801 Jumanji

4,232 Star Wars

3,116 Insidious

3,342 SHowman

3,458 Pitch 3

1,733 Darkness

1,608 Molly's

3,158 Ferdinand

1,894 Coco

804 Water

2,123 All the $

562 - Lady Bird

2,020 DOwnsizing

1,258 WOnder

310 - 3 Billboards

478 - DIsaster

36  - The Post

1,717 - Father

518 - Justice

325 - Thor

314 - Murder

429 - DH2

6 - Phantom THread

256 - I, Tonya

117 - Call Me By                

= 37,615 counts

 

With the minimal additions coming  in for MLK weekend, and a 5,000 count Net Gain, YOU need to subtract 7,030 from 21 of the movies listed above.  Perhaps Bad Mom's XMAS might loose a few too, and also you count apply different accounting techniques with the 12,030 new product and the 7,030 in losses to account for approximately a net gain of 5,000 counts over this last weekend while all comparing it to MLK 4 day standard.  I think last year sets the bar for that.  Monster Trucks  + Live By NIght + Bye BYe Man + Silence + Sleepless + Patriots Day.

 

Rogue One hit the same people per location number of '47' that The Last Jedi hit for Monday.  Last Jedi should follow this trajectory and do 68 + 47 + 46 for Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday.  That would put the total at 580,552,232. 

 

Jumanji might retain 3,801 counts or even increase like Jungle Book.

 

Edited by Matrix4You
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35 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

anyone got exact theater counts yet?

I'm predicting I, Tonya doubles its 256 to 512.  

I saw a mention of Phantom Thread hitting 50 which would be (+44)

2,800 for the Post and Commuter which I predict up to 3,000

3,600 for Paddington 2 which I could see hitting the 3,801 Jumanji currently has.

3 Billboards could add half of its 310 next week (+165)

 

= 37,615 counts

 

With the minimal additions coming  in for MLK weekend, and a 5,000 count Net Gain, YOU need to subtract 7,030 from 21 of the movies listed above.  Perhaps Bad Mom's XMAS might loose a few too, and also you count apply different accounting techniques with the 12,030 new product and the 7,030 in losses to account for approximately a net gain of 5,000 counts over this last weekend while all comparing it to MLK 4 day standard.  I think last year sets the bar for that.  Monster Trucks  + Live By NIght + Bye BYe Man + Silence + Sleepless + Patriots Day.

 

Jumanji might retain 3,801 counts or even increase like Jungle Book.

 

With this, I was able to subtract 9,000 counts from 15 of the films.  Ultimately, there was 15,677 new theater counts going in the same weekend last year.  That is over 3,000 more than this year assuming further expansions of Shape of Water and 3 Billboards do not exceed 7,677 counts.  Last year had a net gain of 5,095 which means 10,582 counts were eliminated from the previous week.  therefore 9,000 going away from this last weekend seems fair.  it is more than expected and maybe Pitch Perfect 3 or some others I am predicting will not drop as bad.  I will copy + paste my predicts later with updates, plus whatever pops up until then

(-100) Jumanji - 3,701

(NEW) Paddington - 3,700

(-1,000) Star Wars - 3,232

(-110) Greatest Showman - 3,232

(+2,900) The Post - 2,936

(NEW) THe COmmuter - 2,900

(-1,153) Pitch Perfect - 2,305

(NEW) Proud Mary - 2,200

(-1,454) - Ferdinand - 1,704

(-100) Darkest Hour - 1,633

(-700) Coco - 1,194

(-1,062) All the $$ - 1,061

(-1,200) Downsizing - 820

(-500) Wonder - 758

(-1,200) Father Figures - 517

(+256) I, Tonya - 512

(+165) 3 Billboards - 465

(-100) Justice League - 318

(-50) Thor - 275

(NEW)

(+44) Phantom THread - 50

 

NO CHANGE              

Insidious 4  - 3,116

Molly's Game - 1,608

Shape of Water - 804

Lady Bird - 562

Disaster Artist - 478

Call Me By - 117

 

 

(-50) Murder - 264

(-150) DH2 - 279

 

 

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I don't even really see Commuter going below 15 for the 4-day. Not if 3 days to kill can open to 12.7 over 3 days, same for Neeson's Walk Among the Tombstones. Reviews aren't trashing it, and it's got a fair bit of marketing behind it.

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1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I don't even really see Commuter going below 15 for the 4-day. Not if 3 days to kill can open to 12.7 over 3 days, same for Neeson's Walk Among the Tombstones. Reviews aren't trashing it, and it's got a fair bit of marketing behind it.

After Insidous blew away the predictions of a mid-to high-teen opening, id say we really cant say how high The Commuter could go. Non-Stop level (28,8M) would surprise me a lot though.

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12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

After Insidous blew away the predictions of a mid-to high-teen opening, id say we really cant say how high The Commuter could go. Non-Stop level (28,8M) would surprise me a lot though.

I'd even be surprised at more than 20M. But I could see a number like 18-19 for the 4-day

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1 minute ago, New Year New Panda said:

Black Panther over Infinity War??

 

I'm gonna say around 180M OW for the 3-day.  I definitely think 200M for the 4-day is possible.  This is gonna be a huuuuuggggeee breakout

Edited by That One Guy
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