The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

I know seeing such a massive headline is amazing, and I hope for the best for this movie, but it should be noted that Civil War came out two years ago. Presales and advance tickets are continuously growing, so it's not a completely accurate comparison when it's this far apart when it comes to opening weekends. Just saying this, because I don't want people to go all "This made less than IM3's OW? FLOP!"

[Deja23]

BKB’s $120m OW club isn’t looking so unlikely anymore. 

I can see around Homecoming’s OW being possible now, maybe $115m.

The Thursday previews are near 50% sold, but the theater only has 2 shows listed for some reason. Maybe they’ll add more as tickets continue to sell. 

[RRA]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

I know seeing such a massive headline is amazing, and I hope for the best for this movie, but it should be noted that Civil War came out two years ago. Presales and advance tickets are continuously growing, so it's not a completely accurate comparison when it's this far apart when it comes to opening weekends. Just saying this, because I don't want people to go all "This made less than IM3's OW? FLOP!"

I certainly could see these presales be frontloaded, but right now this opening to less than WW would be the real stunner  

[The Panda]

23 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I'm gonna say around 180M OW for the 3-day.  I definitely think 200M for the 4-day is possible.  This is gonna be a huuuuuggggeee breakout

I’d still be cautious before predicting that.  No idea how frontloaded Panther is going to be.

 

But I definitely think the Panther side of MovieMan’s club is a good possibility rn.  However, I still have a hard time seeing it unseat WW for biggest original super movie.

[That One Girl]

9 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

"This made less than IM3's OW? FLOP!"

 

I doubt anyone will do that.  I'd still be happy with even just a $100M OW.  But my personal prediction is that it gets to $180M for the 3-day.

[Eric Duncan]

9 minutes ago, RRA said:

I certainly could see these presales be frontloaded, but right now this opening to less than WW would be the real stunner  

I agree with you on that though. I'd say Homecoming/Man of Steel is the floor for this at the moment.

[The Panda]

I definitely think it’ll open larger than Homecoming or Ragnarok

[MattW]

From that DL article:

 

Industry estimates do not believe at this point in time that Black Pantherwill emulate Civil War‘s opening despite the strong. If that’s the case, Black Panther would not only  become the highest opening of all-time for a February release, besting Fox/Marvel’s R-rated Deadpool ($132.4M), but the best opening before summer. Currently, non-Disney estimates before tracking believe Black Panther will post a $80M-$85M start with a possible shot at $100M-plus.

 

However if it's outselling Civil War from 21 months ago I'd say matching Ragnarok is a good bet, 75% chance maybe.

[The Panda]

80-85m is undershooting it.  Be skeptical but trust your data.  

 

O/U Deadpool is a good starting point.

[Random2]

40 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

But my personal prediction is that it gets to $180M for the 3-day.

 

 

[That One Girl]

Just now, ck5111 said:

 

 

 

Civil War opened to 179M and that probably is far more presales heavy than Black Panther.

[Random2]

11 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Civil War opened to 179M and that probably is far more presales heavy than Black Panther.

That was 2 years ago, presales are much more popular now...

 

I'd say 150M is the ceiling 

[cmbbox2390]

16 minutes ago, ck5111 said:

That was 2 years ago, presales are much more popular now...

 

I'd say 150M is the ceiling 

If the ceiling for you is $150M opening weekend, that is still ridiculously great for a first film that’s not starring Iron Man. A year ago we wouldn’t have even fathom from a Black Panther film.

[Random2]

1 minute ago, cmbbox2390 said:

If the ceiling for you is $150M opening weekend, that is still ridiculously great for a first film that’s not starring Iron Man. A year ago we wouldn’t have even fathom from a Black Panther film.

Of course,  can't believe the low end prediction for me is SM:H/MoS numbers!

 

I think it'll land between TDK and...

 

OK FINE I'M IN.

 

160M.

 

FIGHT ME.  

[RRA]

1 hour ago, New Year New Panda said:

I’d still be cautious before predicting that.  No idea how frontloaded Panther is going to be.

 

But I definitely think the Panther side of MovieMan’s club is a good possibility rn.  However, I still have a hard time seeing it unseat WW for biggest original super movie.

A dirty secret about WW was that it had a large number of people that went to see it that might not show up for BP: white Trump voters (especially women). Hopefully BP can compensate elsewhere for that gap, and apparently it will. 

[DAJK]

https://www.google.ca/amp/variety.com/2018/film/news/box-office-jumanji-paddington-proud-mary-1202659445/amp/

 

Jumanji - $30M 4-day

Paddington/Proud Mary - $23-25M holiday (studios projecting 15-18M)

Commuter - sub 18M

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

https://www.google.ca/amp/variety.com/2018/film/news/box-office-jumanji-paddington-proud-mary-1202659445/amp/

 

Jumanji - $30M 4-day

Paddington/Proud Mary - $23-25M holiday (studios projecting 15-18M)

Commuter - sub 18M

The Post is included in those Paddington/Proud Mary projections of $23-25M 4-day numbers as well.

[Kenny]

8 minutes ago, RRA said:

A dirty secret about WW was that it had a large number of people that went to see it that might not show up for BP: white Trump voters (especially women). Hopefully BP can compensate elsewhere for that gap, and apparently it will. 

Since Trump support Disney and even campaigned together with Disney to buy FOX. I think its the other way around the MCU fans are Trump supporters. 

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, MattW said:

From that DL article:

 

Industry estimates do not believe at this point in time that Black Pantherwill emulate Civil War‘s opening despite the strong. If that’s the case, Black Panther would not only  become the highest opening of all-time for a February release, besting Fox/Marvel’s R-rated Deadpool ($132.4M), but the best opening before summer. Currently, non-Disney estimates before tracking believe Black Panther will post a $80M-$85M start with a possible shot at $100M-plus.

 

However if it's outselling Civil War from 21 months ago I'd say matching Ragnarok is a good bet, 75% chance maybe.

The CW comparison is funky.  CW pre-sales are not only 2 years ago but started almost 2 months out on March 10 (or 9th) and in a relatively low amt of theaters.

 

I'd prefer to know how it's doing against Ragnarok and Spider-man HC

[MattW]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

The CW comparison is funky.  CW pre-sales are not only 2 years ago but started almost 2 months out on March 10 (or 9th) and in a relatively low amt of theaters.

 

I'd prefer to know how it's doing against Ragnarok and Spider-man HC

It's the top MCU for the first 24 hours per the article so def selling better than both of those