The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[The Panda]

Those are crazy pre-sales, definitely thinking 160m+, but I wouldn’t set a 200m OW expectation just yet

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And how strong the correlation to the box office those previous pre sales number seem to be, all close to 1.77-1.8% of the OW bo at this point...

 

So what you're saying is...

 

300M OW confirmed?

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And how strong the correlation to the box office those previous pre sales number seem to be, all close to 1.77-1.8% of the OW bo at this point...

Yes, although clearly that correlation won't be the same for BP or else it's hitting 400m on OW lmao. 

 

Or is it??

[Deja23]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And how strong the correlation to the box office those previous pre sales number seem to be, all close to 1.77-1.8% of the OW bo at this point...

Yeah, that’s what’s wild about it. Taking into account some frontloadedness and the presales that might come from the fundraising efforts, it’s still points to a ~$160m OW. 

[MovieMan89]

In all seriousness though, given just how insane the pre-sales are compared to all recent CBMs, it's nature to draw tons of walk up business as a non-team up/non-sequel CBM, pretty much the best reviews ever for the genre, and the fact that the year has been completely dead for appealing new releases I'm starting to think 200+ for the 3 day is far more likely than not at this point. 

[Barnack]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Yes, although clearly that correlation won't be the same for BP or else it's hitting 400m on OW lmao. 

 

Or is it??

Clearly not (or ), but just to say how relevant and good that metric seem to be when comparing vs similar movies it is rare that it such proportional like that, would like to see SS, BvS, WW also for very recent comp.

 

But if it play remotely like a recent marvel sequel movie (maybe being a bit different in term of who it reach it is not) it will be a monster. 

[Porthos]

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-4 Days and counting  

6/74 (nc)

 

2D:  4/49 (nc)

3D:  2/25 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 52 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

0 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

3 (+3)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

10 (-1)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/131    

St: 0/131

Su: 0/129  

Mo: 0/116

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (52/74 showings):

100%:    6 (nc)

90-99%: 3 (+3)

80-89%: 5 (-2)

70-79%: 7 (-1)

60-69%: 5 (+2)

50-59%: 5 (-1)

40-49%: 7 (+1)

30-39%: 1 (-2)

20-29%: 4 (+3)

10-19%: 4 (-1)

0-9%:    5 (-2)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	6	74	3508	7710	54.50%

[Porthos]

Approx 40 to 45 tickets per minute over at Fandango Pulse for Black Panther just now.

 

 

insert ithasbegundotgif HERE

Edited February 12, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Approx 40 to 45 tickets per minute over at Fandango Pulse for Black Panther just now.

 

 

insert ithasbegundotgif HERE

To put this into context, TLJ was doing around 55-60 sets per minute at approx the same time on its Sunday before release. 

 

Given that SW fans are nusto about presales, I think this looks very good for BP, personally. 

Edited February 12, 2018 by Porthos

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

To put this into context, TLJ was doing around 55-60 sets per minute at approx the same time on its Sunday before release. 

 

Given that SW fans are nusto about presales, I think this looks very good for BP, personally. 

It just keeps getting crazier. I really think it could beat TA and JW. Give it like a 40% chance. 

[grey ghost]

34 minutes ago, Porthos said:

To put this into context, TLJ was doing around 55-60 sets per minute at approx the same time on its Sunday before release. 

 

Given that SW fans are nusto about presales, I think this looks very good for BP, personally. 

So BP is currently moving at 75% of TLJ which means 165 m OW.

 

That's a nice benchmark to beat this weekend.

Edited February 12, 2018 by grey ghost

[the beast]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So BP is currently moving at 75% of TLJ which means 165 m OW.

 

That's a nice benchmark to beat this weekend.

You have to realise that SW is way way more presale driven so it could insanely go higher possibly

[Porthos]

I never ever do this.  But the showings were still barely manageable to contemplate it. And I got a little curious after checking out Century Arden.

 

A ONE TIME ONLY* FRIDAY NIGHT SEAT REPORT FOR THE GREATER SACRAMENTO AREA

 

* Probably.

 

Sellouts: 0/131 

 

2D:  0/90

3D:  0/41       

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 90 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

6         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

1

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

9

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

3

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (90/131 showings):

100%:    0

90-99%: 7

80-89%: 4

70-79%: 10

60-69%: 8

50-59%: 5

40-49%: 5

30-39%: 10

20-29%: 7

10-19%: 13

0-9%:    21

 

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	131	9140	14673	37.71%

 

---

 

THOUGHTS

 

The zero sellouts is deceptive as there are seven screenings with six seats or less, with six of them being three seats or less.  

 

The percentage count also was riding at around 41 percent or so before I plugged in the true-IMAX theater in town which hasn't sold that many tickets for Friday yet.

 

A few theaters are doing very very VERY well in the area (same ones as the ones doing gangbusters on Thursday), with the evening shows doing the best.

 

Don't ask me to compare this to either Rogue One or The Last Jedi, as I wasn't going that deep on R1 (just glancing at true sellouts) and I would have been driven mad, mad I say, if I had even thought about attempting a deep reserved seating dive for Friday for TLJ. 

 

So, looking good here in Sacramento and surrounding environs, with the proviso that some areas are doing much much better than others.

 

I would expect the Saturday count as of right now to be even better than the Friday count, simply due to increased morning sales. But like hell am I going to check 90 more showings to find out.

 

...

 

Tonight at least.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Porthos

[MattW]

6 hours ago, the beast said:

You have to realise that SW is way way more presale driven so it could insanely go higher possibly

Black panther is reaching a new audience which could significantly change its presales ratio

[MaxAggressor]

MT.com:-

1. Black Panther - 25.2%
2. Fifty Shades Freed - 19.5%
3. Peter Rabbit - 15%
4. 15:17 to Paris - 6.3%
5. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 4.7%

Edited February 12, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[iceni]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

To put this into context, TLJ was doing around 55-60 sets per minute at approx the same time on its Sunday before release. 

 

Given that SW fans are nusto about presales, I think this looks very good for BP, personally. 

 

Do we know what previous Marvel films did at this point in time before release...?

[Ms Lady Hawk]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/black-panther-tracking-massive-165m-us-debut-1083867

 

Tracking for at least 165 million. 

[Deja23]

MT:

1. Black Panther - 36.5%
2. Fifty Shades Freed - 23%
3. Peter Rabbit - 9.1%
4. 15:17 to Paris, The - 5%
5. Jumanji - 3.1%

 

Pulse:

1. Black Panther
2. Fifty Shades Freed
3. Black Panther 3D
4. Peter Rabbit
5. Black Panther IMAX 2D

Edited February 12, 2018 by Deja23

[Porthos]

Black Panther now trucking along at 65-70 sets of tickets per minute for 3:30pm PST, more or less (saw a set of 67, 68 and 65).

 

Context:

 

On 12/11/2017 at 12:12 PM, Porthos said:

Just did a check and [TLJ] is holding steady at around 80 per minute.  Commenting more for historical comparison reasons for other super blockbusters (including Ep 9).

 

Presuming this thread doesn't disappear that is. 

TLJ was up to 85 per minute some time prior to that post.

On 12/11/2017 at 3:12 PM, TalismanRing said:

 

Only comps I have for the day and time

 

WW: 41 avg (4pm)

JL: 22.2  avg (4pm)

So still less than TLJ, but much higher than either WW or JL, which is to be expected.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Porthos

[grey ghost]

How much better are Marvel movies for walk ups than DC or Star Wars?

 

@Porthos

 

@grim22