The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

45 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

How much better are Marvel movies for walk ups than DC or Star Wars?

 

@Porthos

 

@grim22

I've heard that Marvel is very strong on walkups.  Better than Star Wars (which is strong on just about everything) though?  None clue, sorry.  

[MovieMan89]

6 hours ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/black-panther-tracking-massive-165m-us-debut-1083867

 

Tracking for at least 165 million. 

That has to be the highest tracking ever for a non-sequel. 50/50 at this point this thing is going over 200 for the 3 day. 

[That One Girl]

AMC Empire Thursday Night:

 

• Black Panther
  • 6:00 PM Fan Event - 254/256 (99% full)
  • 7:00 PM - SOLD OUT (don't know capacity, let's assume 137/137)
  • 7:00 PM Dolby Cinema - SOLD OUT (218/218)
  • 7:15 PM - 234/256 (91% full)
  • 7:30 PM - 314/370 (85% full)
  • 7:45 PM - 106/149 (71% full)
  • 8:00 PM IMAX - SOLD OUT (289/289)
  • 8:15 PM - 94/141 (67% full)
  • 8:30 PM 3D - 258/301 (86% full)
  • 8:45 PM - 88/139 (63% full)
  • 9:00 PM - 283/368 (77% full)
  • 9:45 PM - 70/137 (51% full)
  • 10:15 PM Dolby Cinema - SOLD OUT (218/218)
  • 10:30 PM - 91/256 (36% full)
  • 10:45 PM - 72/370 (19% full)
  • 11:00 PM - 24/149 (16% full)
  • 11:15 PM IMAX - 227/289 (79% full)
  • 11:30 PM - 71/301 (24% full)
  • 11:45 PM - 21/301 (7% full)
  • 12:00 AM - 17/368 (5% full)
  • Total - 3,086/5,013 (62% full)

[filmlover]

Variety says it's tracking for $170M+ (also $7M for Early Man and $3M for Samson)

 

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/box-office-black-panther-opening-weekend-tracking-1202696018/

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

That has to be the highest tracking ever for a non-sequel. 50/50 at this point this thing is going over 200 for the 3 day. 

That tracking number is for 4 days so about $145 for 3 days.    $200m for 3 days would be far greater than 50/50 odds.

[That One Girl]

That’s about $50k at AMC Empire right now btw

[WrathOfHan]

Thursday at my theater for BP:

 

7:00: 82/113

7:45 3D: 44/78

8:15: 22/78

8:45: 9/78

9:15: 4/78

Total: 161/425

 

This is already at 57% of Ragnarok an hour from previews with one fewer showing and less capacity   The later 2D shows only got added a few days ago. Early Man has sold 5/78 for its 5 PM show as well (nothing beyond that has been scheduled)

[That One Girl]

If Samson grosses $50k or so in previews (which is possible), then it'd officially make less in Thursday night previews than Black Panther made at one theater in New York City

[Porthos]

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-3 Days and counting  

Sellouts: 

6/81 (+0/+7)

 

2D:  4/54 (+0/+5)

3D:  2/27 (+0/+2)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 59 showings [+7]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

0 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

5 (+2)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

10 (nc)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

1 (-1)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 1/135 (+1/+4)    

St: 0/134 (+0/+3)

Su: 0/129 (+0/+3)  

Mo: 0/115 (+0/-1)

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (59/81 showings):

100%:    6 (nc)

90-99%: 5 (+2)

80-89%: 5 (nc)

70-79%: 5 (-2)

60-69%: 8 (+3)

50-59%: 6 (+1)

40-49%: 4 (-3)

30-39%: 4 (+3)

20-29%: 4 (nc)

10-19%: 2 (-2)

0-9%:    10 (+5)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	6	81	3766	8279	54.51%

 

 

===

 

A couple of theaters added their full Thursday slates, which is why the percent sold didn't budge even over 300 tickets were sold in the region.  I expect the rest of the theaters to put in their full slates tomorrow, leaving only the local drive in theater to announce its screenings. 

[Porthos]

For those curious, this is where Rogue One stood three days out:

 

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT for Rogue One (12/15): T-3 days and counting

 

Previews: 12/107 showings (+3/nc)

 

2D: 10/71 (+3/nc)

3D: 2/36 (nc)

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 46 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

4 (-1)

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

5 (+1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (with three or less other scattered seats left)

21 (nc)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

0 (nc)

 

====

 

Now the "Front Two Rows" count is inflated as I handled it differently back then (allowing three more seats beyond what the first two rows added), but there aren't many screenings of BP that would fit that category right now.  Say, four or five?  Something like that from what memory recalls.

 

Ignoring the whole difference in FTR and the fact that I didn't keep track of anything beyond 75% full or not, the difference is mainly that R1 had 21 screenings either sold out OR between 90-99% capacity while BP has 11 and R1 had more screenings overall.  

 

On the other hand, as has been said in this thread many times, SW fans are bonkers when it comes to presales. And theaters can add screenings if the demand shows it. So I am in fact expecting the three day to go past Rogue One, given these numbers.

 

Beyond that?  Well, time will tell, I suppose.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Porthos

[The Panda]

At my good ol’ Texas theater, the 7:20pm showing of Samson has MORE PRESALES than the 9:20pm showing of Black Panther I’m seeing

[Eric Duncan]

Black Panther

3789

6689

56.65%

 

 

So Black Panther just doubled its showtimes tonight after almost every single previous show was sold out, and right now, its total seats are above The Last Jedi, and it'll probably pass Last Jedi's tickets sold by tomorrow or Wednesday. Also, my theater isn't getting Early Man or Samson.

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by CoolEric258

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, The Mad Panda said:

At my good ol’ Texas theater, the 7:20pm showing of Samson has MORE PRESALES than the 9:20pm showing of Black Panther I’m seeing

I wanted to put a "" reaction on the post.  Problem is... I DO believe it.  Sadly.

 

So a "Winona'd" reaction will have to do.

 

===

 

Come to think of it, I haven't checked how Samson vs BP is doing in the less... cosmopolitan* areas nearby.  Now that I think about it, there might be one theater I'm tracking where something similar might be going down. 

 

* And, yes, I think thinking in terms of "more cosmopolitan"/"less cosmopolitan" is far better than the urban/suburban/rural way of thinking when it comes to Black Panther.  There are going to be plenty of suburban areas (and rural ones for that matter) where Black Panther will do fantastic.  Other areas of the country?  Well the jury is still out.

 

Which raises the 164 million dollar question:  How much will Black Panther's what is looking to be over-performance in cosmopolitan areas of the country make up for a possible under-performance in the less cosmopolitan areas. 

 

Not sure, myself.  It's one of the reasons I've been holding back from jumping on board with some of the more optimistic predictions on this board.  Could be that the areas where it is reportedly selling like hotcakes just overwhelms everything else.  Find out soon enough, I suppose.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Come to think of it, I haven't checked how Samson vs BP is doing in the less... cosmopolitan* areas nearby.  Now that I think about it, there might be one theater I'm tracking where something similar might be going down. 

Nope. That theater isn't selling any tickets for Samson, so not happening there.  The few places that are selling for Samson have sold practically nothing so far.

 

In fact....

 

*checks*

 

Samson has sold two tickets out of the approx 260 seats available to it in reserved seating on Thursday. 

 

TWO!!!!  

 

(there are a few screenings I can't check since they are non-reserved, FWIW)

 

Still think BP is safe, @The Mad Panda.

 

(What The Panda might not have told us is that perhaps 8 tickets had sold for the Samson showing he was referring to and 4 for the BP one. )

Edited February 13, 2018 by Porthos

[WrathOfHan]

My theater doesn't have Samson tickets up yet; it would be awesome for them not to get it after having the standee for a couple weeks now  

[Sam]

A quick look at theaters in my city shows that Black Panther is already selling great for the whole weekend, and it’s only Monday.

 

For example, at Santikos Palladium in San Antonio (one of the biggest in the country) Friday 6:00PM and 9:15PM only has the very front rows left. So at around 85% capacity I would say

 

Friday and Saturday showtimes at the next biggest theater here, Casa Blanca, looks to be around the same as Palladium: front or first two rows left. 

 

The Regal theaters chain is doing very well too. Smaller overall capacity compare to the Santikos chain since lots of their theaters utilizing recliner seats. But that’s also why the seats are filling up fast. Showtimes were quickly added too, compare to last time I checked, which was 2 days ago. 

 

One of these days I will develop a system for sell out counts in my area lol. One of these days... 

 

At the moment though, I can see big numbers here for Panther in the San Antonio area (would not be surprised if Palladium shows up as BP’s Top 10 theaters in Rth’s report later on)

 

Too lazy to look at Samson, but hopefully, whatever massive numbers it’ll be pulling in, will provide that much needed spillover effect for Black Panther. 

[BXT]

Fox has moved both Alita and The Predator.

 

 

 

It is crazy that they have only one movie (Deadpool 2) scheduled for this summer.

[DAJK]

35 minutes ago, BXT said:

Fox has moved both Alita and The Predator.

 

 

 

It is crazy that they have only one movie (Deadpool 2) scheduled for this summer.

FUUUUUUUUUUCK

[KP1025]

They could move Deadpool 2 into August now for less competition.

[BXT]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

They could move Deadpool 2 into August now for less competition.

I think Deadpool 2 is going to Cannes. That's why they moved it up to May 18th.