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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Thoughts - Momentum is picking up at too quick a rate for tracking to keep up, that's a lot of volatility in the last 10 days.  Reminds me of Avengers buzz/fever pitch in the last 2 weeks leading up.   Those AMC presales comps are impressive.

 

Given the time of year, Saturday record would be in jeopardy with a 3-day weekend IMO but 4-day could throw a wrench in that (depends on demand level) but makes Sunday record quite possible (far more potential for Sat spillover than previous Pres. day weekends w/o Valentine's day).

 

SM3/TA/TDK are at the 21.5-22M OW attendance range and TFA at 22-23M.  This can probably do something like 20-22M for the 4-day, with current prices + 2D showtime saturation that could be right round 240-250M (22M/62M/68M/61M/30M).

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On 10/31/2017 at 11:45 PM, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local is up...

 

New

Thor (3 + 1 extra 3d showing - 6 3d/10 2d)

Bad Moms (1 + 1 extra evening showing - 7 total)

 

Returning

Jigsaw (1)

TYFYS (1)

Boo (1)

HDD (1)

Geostorm (1)

The Foreigner (1/2)

Surburbicon (1/2)

Blade Runner (1/2)

 

1 screen open - not sure if they are also gonna try the foreign movie route like my other local or if they are saving it to see if Bad Moms or Thor needs it more...

My Regal local (2nd local) has set its initial set for Black Panther for the weekend - I'm gonna try to go back and check where the final showings at this theater ended up for Thor 3 (b/c they added a lot of last minute Fri/Sat ones), but for now, Black Panther is getting a bigger initial set here...

 

Black Panther (4 - 12 3d / 8 2d - weird set for 3d/2d, but I guess the theater is convinced folks will pay whatever it takes to see it this weekend, so it actually has loaded up the 3d - I expect all "bonus" showings to be 2d)...

 

It's 25% more in initial set than Thor 3 - 25% more than Thor's OW would be $153.43M...so I think this is a good number to shoot for for the 3 day...

 

(1st local has not made a final initial set decision yet)...

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Something I have noticed, but unlike your typical massive uber blockbuster, I find presales swing wildly between theatres in my area.

 

Theaters that have a much bigger minority client base are having an insane level of presales while other theatres are having rather solid pre-sales for this film.

 

Now I am unsure what this means but I am not buying it can open as large as TA/TDK and such. 

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14 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Something I have noticed, but unlike your typical massive uber blockbuster, I find presales swing wildly between theatres in my area.

 

Theaters that have a much bigger minority client base are having an insane level of presales while other theatres are having rather solid pre-sales for this film.

 

Now I am unsure what this means but I am not buying it can open as large as TA/TDK and such. 

Tracking already puts it in the TDK range.

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Black Panther chugging along at around 70 to 75 sets of tickets per minute for the 11:00am PST time period.  TLJ was doing around 100 per minute at the 10am PST time period and around 125 per minute at the noon PST time period, FWIW.

 

I don't have other historical comps on hand for similar time periods for other movies.

 

one hour later edit:

 

Still holding steady at 70 to 75 sets per minute for the noon PST time period.

 

---

 

MT:

Black Panther: 40.6%

Fifty Shades Feed: 22.6%

Peter Rabbit: 5.6%

15:17 to Paris: 5.5%

Jumanji: 2.6%

 

Pulse:

BP

FSF

BP 3D

BP IMAX

PR

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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I do think there's a good chance Pre-Sales are inflated in a Star Wars kind of way.  'Minority targeting movies' (Not sure how else to phrase it, maybe movies that appeal more to minorities) are historically a little more frontloaded, which would then make sense if BP did turn out to be more frontloaded with pre-sales than the typical Marvel movie. (As BP isn't a typical comic book movie, it's much more appealing to minorities than a typical superhero movie)

 

That's similar to how Wonder Woman ended up playing more backloaded because it had more female demo appeal, only difference is movies targeting the female demo trend leggier, while movies targeting minorities trend a little more frontloaded.

 

I don't really know what that means for BP's opening weekend, because we don't have many real comps in that regard, at least with the pre-sale numbers it's having.  It could easily blow past CW numbers and shock everyone, or pre-sales could be inflated based on the target audience being different, which would mean a 'smaller' 140-160m OW.  I'd keep that in mind when setting expectations, these pre-sales don't necessarily mean over CW OW or even over BvS OW, but they don't necessarily mean under those either.  There's a fairly large range where one could reasonably expect this to land.

 

I'd be fairly confident in saying OW under TLJ, but over Deadpool.  Idk much about narrowing that range and still being confident about the answer.

Edited by The Mad Panda
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Century Arden and Blue Oaks Century (in Roseville) have Star Wars level of showings for Black Panther over the weekend (25+ and 20+ per night respectively). RebWGyw.png

 

Other theaters in town are upping/finalizing their counts as well, but they aren't quite going as nuts as Century Arden is.  To be fair, Century Arden has been consistently the best seller for BP here in town, so it doesn't surprise me at all that they're trying to maximize screenings.  

 

The Fr/St/Su slate isn't finished yet, but it does appear that some theaters are expecting a ton of business while others are expecting a 'normal' level of blockbuster business, if you see what I am trying to say.

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On 2/6/2018 at 3:51 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Coco, Forever My Girl, I, Tonya, and Phantom Thread are gone.

 

WEEKEND:

 

Fifty Shades Freed: 14 (Biggest, 2nd Biggest, and Average)

Peter Rabbit: 8 (Average and Smallest)

The 15:17 to Paris: 5 (Average)

 

The Greatest Showman: 6 (3rd Smallest)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 5 (3 2D/2 3D; Average)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: 5 (Average and 4th Smallest)

Winchester: 5 (Average and 4th Smallest)

12 Strong: 3 (Smallest)

Hostiles: 3 (2nd Biggest)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 3 (2nd Smallest)

Den of Thieves: 2 (Average)

The Shape of Water: 2 (2nd Smallest)

The Post: 1 (Average)

 

WEEKDAYS:

Fifty Shades Freed: 5 (Biggest and Average)

The 15:17 to Paris: 4 (2nd Biggest)

Peter Rabbit: 4 (Average)

 

12 Strong: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest and 2nd Smallest)

Den of Thieves: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest and 2nd Smallest)

The Greatest Showman: 4 (Flat; Average)

Hostiles: 4 (Flat; Average)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 4 (Flat; 2 2D/2 3D; Average)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: 4 (Flat; Average)

The Post: 4 (Flat; Average)

Winchester: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

The Shape of Water: 2 (Flat; Smallest)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 2 (Flat; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

12 Strong, Den of Thieves, Hostiles, The Post, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri are gone.

 

WEEKEND:

 

Black Panther: 20 (10 2D/10 3D; Biggest, Average x2, and 4th Smallest)

Early Man: 6 (2nd Smallest)

 

Fifty Shades Freed: 8 (Down 6; 2nd Biggest, Average, and 4th Smallest)

Peter Rabbit: 8 (2nd Biggest and Average)

The 15:17 to Paris: 5 (Flat; Average)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 5 (3 2D/2 3D; Flat; Smallest)

The Greatest Showman: 2 (Down 4; 3rd Smallest)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: 2 (Down 3; 3rd Smallest)

Winchester: 2 (Down 3; Average and 3rd Smallest)

 

WEEKDAYS:

 

Black Panther: 13 (6 2D/7 3D; Biggest, Average x2, and 4th Smallest)

Early Man: 4 (2nd Smallest)

 

The 15:17 to Paris: 4 (Flat; 2nd Biggest)

Fifty Shades Freed: 4 (Down 1; Average)

The Greatest Showman: 4 (Flat; Average)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 4 (2 2D/2 3D; Flat; Smallest)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: 4 (Flat; Average)

Peter Rabbit: 4 (Flat; Average)

Winchester: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

 

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

Spoiler


Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

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Black Panther keeping four screens during the week is an INCREDIBLY encouraging sign. No movie ever gets that many screens on weekdays here; it's usually three max (even TLJ only got three after its OW) :ohmygod: 

OTOH, Early Man getting plopped into the 2nd Smallest is a graveyard sentence; the only movies that opened in the smaller auditoriums last year were Gold, The Resurrection of Gavin Stone, Rock Dog, Born in China, Friend Request, Flatliners, and Father Figures :hahaha: 

 

Meanwhile, my theater keeps milking Jumanji 3D for some reason; placing it in the smallest auditorium just for 3D is going to fuck them over

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On 10/31/2017 at 2:49 PM, TwoMisfits said:

So, to some movie tracking...

 

1st - one local has now gone to 5 shows for Thor Thursday (vs 4) - it added a 2d at 8pm b/c those 2d shows are selling wildly better than the 3ds...we'll see if it adds any more as we get closer...

 

Now, to my local Friday sets...1st local (ie - the one that now loves foreign films to fill in) will have this set up for the weekend...

 

NEW

Thor - (3) (1 3d, 2 2d - 13 total showings) - so $150M cap by my screen-to-box-office Math if my other local goes 3 (since I expect mall to go 4:)...

 

So, I'm copying this since it was my 1st local's Thor initial set - 2 days later, they threw an extra 2d screen at Thor 3 to give it 18 showings...right now, my 1st local has given Black Panther 4 screens and 19 showings (7 3d, 12 2d)...so it also has slightly more than Thor 3's initial set...now, it has no more room to give showings saved, and few things to scratch, but we'll see...

 

PS - 2nd local Regal has now gone to 21 showings in initial set (1 more 2d)...it still has not set its screens, so it could still go up...

 

1st local (Cinemark) set...

 

New

Black Panther (4)

Early Man (1)

Awe!/Aiyarry (1 - .6/.4 share)

 

Returning

50 Shades (1)

Pad Man (1 - this surprises me)

Peter Rabbit (1)

15:17 (1)

Maze Runner/Tolieprema (1 - .5 each)

Jumanji (1)

 

Gone

The Greatest Showman and pretty much every other old holdover except Jumanji and Maze Runner

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Black Panther is sitting at 100 sets of tickets per minute over at Fandango Pulse right now for the 6:30pm PST period (99 and 101 observed for 6:31 and 6:32 respectively).

 

MT: 

Black Panther:  35.4

Fifty Shades:    24.2

Peter Rabbit:      6.0

15:17 to Paris:   5.6

Jumanji 2:         3.1

 

Pulse: 

BP

Freed

BP 3D

BP IMAX

PR

Edited by Porthos
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(putting this up late because I wanted to wait for theaters to finish updating their weekend arrangements.  One might guess by the bumps that most did ;))

 

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-2 Days and counting  

Sellouts: 

7/111 (+1/+30)

 

2D:  4/79 (+0/+25)

3D:  3/32 (+1/+5)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 80 showings [+21]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

0 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

4 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

13 (+2)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

1 (nc)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 2/257 (+1/+122)    

St: 0/259 (+0/+125)

Su: 0/258 (+0/+131)  

Mo: 0/255 (+0/+132)

 

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (80/111 showings [+21]):

100%:     7 (+1)

90-99%:  4 (-1)

80-89%:  5 (nc)

70-79%: 10 (+5)

60-69%: 11 (+3)

50-59%: 6 (nc)

40-49%: 3 (-1)

30-39%: 8 (+4)

20-29%: 7 (+3)

10-19%: 3 (+1)

0-9%:    16 (+6)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

7

111

5080

10359

50.96%

 

====

 

Still waiting on one theater to update, as well as the drive in theater to check in.  When they do, the screen count should be more or less equal to Rogue One on Fr/St/Su, if not quite as much as it was for Thursday.  So in the Sacramento area at least it looks like there will be plenty of room for capacity crowds. :)

Edited by Porthos
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Just saw 112, 109, and 101 sets of tickets go by for Black Panther over at Fandango Pulse (for 11:46 am, 11:47 am, and 11:48am PST).

 

Here are  some historical comps for Wed of release helpfully provided by @TalismanRing last December (for what I presume is EST).

 

These are THURSDAY COMPS.  SORRY EVERYONE!!!

 

---

 

MT:

Black Panther: 38.9

Fifty Shades:   27.2

Peter Rabbit:    5.0

15:17 to Paris: 4.0

Jumanji 2:       2.7

 

Pulse:

BP

FSF

BP 3D

BP IMAX

PR

Edited by Porthos
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11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just saw 112, 109, and 101 sets of tickets go by for Black Panther over at Fandango Pulse (for 11:46 am, 11:47 am, and 11:48am PST).

 

Here are  some historical comps for Wed of release helpfully provided by @TalismanRing (for what I presume is EST).

 

---

 

MT:

Black Panther: 38.9

Fifty Shades:   27.2

Peter Rabbit:    5.0

15:17 to Paris: 4.0

Jumanji 2:       2.7

 

Pulse:

BP

FSF

BP 3D

BP IMAX

PR

Yes, EST 

Quote

 

Fandango Pulse: avg per minute (THUR EST)

 

TLJ:  275 (10:45am) 225 (12pm), 360 (5:20pm), 444 (6pm)

 

 

WW:  46 (10am), 125 (5pm)

SM: HC: 49avg (9am), 110 (12pm), 138( 1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)

IT:  25 (8:20am) 41(9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)

Ragnarok:  103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)

Justice League:  45.2 (10am), 78 (12pm), 92 (1:30pm), 103 (3:30pm), 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm), 156 (7:45)

 

 

Interestingly it looks like while BP was well ahead of other CBMs on Mon to Wed on Fandango if it's averaging 107 per minute at 2:45-8pm it would now be significantly behind SM:HC, IT and Ragnok on Thur afternoon.  From other pre-sale numbers it could mean people really bought their tickets earlier than usual.

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Yes, EST 

 

Interestingly it looks like while BP was well ahead of other CBMs on Mon to Wed on Fandango if it's averaging 107 per minute at 2:45-8pm it would now be significantly behind SM:HC, IT and Ragnok on Thur afternoon.  From other pre-sale numbers it could mean people really bought their tickets earlier than usual.

 

It's also Valentines day and I see a lot of tickets being sold for Fifty Shades. Perhaps that is causing the slowdown in sales. I think we should see sales pick up a lot tomorrow

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